Flybe

Jerry

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If only Wales had the power to devolve APD....maybe this may now become a reality that Flybe have gone under and many parts are without connectivity. Also, I wonder how many more PSO routes we will see in 2020 off the back of this.
Ken Skates has apparently spoken to the UK government about it but I'd be surprised if they did anything.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Ken Skates has apparently spoken to the UK government about it but I'd be surprised if they did anything.
There might be a glimmer of a chance - depends what the UK government does about APD and whether the Flybe disappearance will alter their views at the last minute.

APD devolution would help CWL but do nothing for the likes of SOU, EXT or NQY who are now in an even worse situation than CWL which might be a political difficulty for the chancellor.

The WG did say they would conduct a climate change review if APD devolution was granted before deciding how to implement it. I always took it as read that such a review would be mere lip service as they are desperate to abolish the tax. They now have a reason to do so without a climate change review.
 

Foxlimayankee

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The issue for CWL is that the domestic routes may do well but they aren't cash cows in comparison to what needs to be filled at other Airports. Eastern could well step in with some better fleet utilisation and use the J41 in the short term to EDI, ORK or BHD, but with restricted timings.
Prices on BRS domestic routes will likely rise now with there being little competition. What will be interesting is if EZY will increase EDI and BFS. They already offer good timings on those routes through the day, which is the market flybe were serving, early morning and evening departures.
Apparently Eastern have lost an oil contract in Scotland, meaning their 2 ATRs which have limited use in scheduled services currently will become available, if the leases continue.
I can see Eastern either going all or nothing here. They have an opportunity, as do Blue Islands, to expand and cherry pick the good routes. Eastern for years have shown no interest in growth, and Blue Islands was rumoured to starting to wind down as the owner has ill health.
I can also see Flybe being resurrected by Virgin, but the regional network likely not getting much of a look in.
 

Jerry

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There might be a glimmer of a chance - depends what the UK government does about APD and whether the Flybe disappearance will alter their views at the last minute.
The problem I see is that cutting APD will incur the wrath of Greta and co which might put the government off from doing that. They could instead go down either the PSO route or maybe even a regional connectivity fund to help attract airlines onto to certain routes and I'm sceptical that they would do anything to help Cardiff and Welsh connectivity.
The issue for CWL is that the domestic routes may do well but they aren't cash cows in comparison to what needs to be filled at other Airports.
I suppose that is the fear for the airport that once the dust settles the bigger airports will have scooped up any replacement flights and Wales may well be left without connections to the whole of Ireland and France and Scotlands capital.
 

Selig

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Edinburgh - Cardiff route is back with a new carrier Loganair from 23 March with a daily Embraer Regional Jet service, which will rise to a 10 weekly ERJ service from 1 Sept, lead in fare £49 one way.

Loganair has announced it will take over 16 routes formerly flown by Flybe.
It will represent nearly 400 new weekly flights for the Scottish regional carrier, all from its base airports at Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Inverness and Newcastle.
Flights will begin on Monday 16 March and are already on sale at loganair.co.uk and via travel agent systems.
 

Tinkerman

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The CWL departures and arrivals boards make for sorry reading today, but remains markedly better than other airports who now face an uphill task to find replacement carriers.

I don’t know anything (Before people start rumours), but i think CWL will bounce back from this - However, with the Coronavirus seemingly bringing the world to a standstill, it’s not going to be a quick fix.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I don’t know anything (Before people start rumours), but i think CWL will bounce back from this - However, with the Coronavirus seemingly bringing the world to a standstill, it’s not going to be a quick fix.
It will. Over the years that have been setbacks that have affected many probably most airports along the way, including CWL: Court Line; 9/11; recessions; previous epidemics/pandemics

They've all impacted negatively on aviation to a greater or lesser degree. This one might take longer for aviation to recover than previous epidemics and there might be more airline casualties as a result. CWL is actually probably better insulated against a meltdown (not that I'm suggesting one is likely) because it has the power of a government behind its ownership. I'm not a great fan of public ownership of airports but in CWL's case there was probably no realistic option at the time.
 

aviatorconcorde

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There might be a glimmer of a chance - depends what the UK government does about APD and whether the Flybe disappearance will alter their views at the last minute.

APD devolution would help CWL but do nothing for the likes of SOU, EXT or NQY who are now in an even worse situation than CWL which might be a political difficulty for the chancellor.

The WG did say they would conduct a climate change review if APD devolution was granted before deciding how to implement it. I always took it as read that such a review would be mere lip service as they are desperate to abolish the tax. They now have a reason to do so without a climate change review.

A climate change review - well, that would take the best part of 3 years to conduct then.
 

Jerry

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Since 2004, CWL has lost Air Wales, BMIbaby, Cityjet, Thomas Cook and now FlyBe. It seems like one step forward and two steps back.
But has regained Ryanair, attracted Qatar Airways, gained and lost Iberia Express and Eurowings, gained Vueling and gained Loganair. Oh and TUI downsized and expanded again! And KLM has expanded again so I don't think it's all doom and gloom and I generally think that the airport is in a much better place for the future now.
 

Foxlimayankee

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Since 2004, CWL has lost Air Wales, BMIbaby, Cityjet, Thomas Cook and now FlyBe. It seems like one step forward and two steps back.
You can add Zoom, XL Airways, Helvetic, TUI and Monarch (Thomas Cook) summer long haul, big Tour Operators like goldtrail to that list, and probably some more. BUT so have other Airports.
CWL didn't lose Monarch short haul, bmi regional closure, faced Norwegian cut backs and many other Airlines that have gone bust or downsized. It just reflects bad at CWL because of its size.
Aviation is an ever changing industry that is constantly losing and gaining.

Jerry has pointed out some of the positives. Something that the CWL management pointed out at the AM committee meeting recently. They no longer have all their eggs in one basket. Each market is served by different carriers. Most of which are in healthy position to remain.
VY make good money off their routes, despite their own performance, I cant see them going anywhere.
TUI have the holiday market to themselves.
Qatar is continuing to grow and as yet, everything I've read about them has been positive, which will only help it to grow.
Loganair are starting to create a presence and long term I can see the ERJs going and more ATRs being added to the fleet which will boost seats and be more economical to run.
Who knows where Eastern will be and what their plans are at the moment.
Ryanair I can see expanding once the Max and coronavirus issues are out of the way.
I think the best thing for CWL to now do is work on helping the current Airlines through the rough times to make sure they stay.
 

Foxlimayankee

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Good to see Ken Skates being reasonably vocal about the effect of Flybe on CWL. A few Twitter posts in the past few days. One of the ones retweeted by CWL:

The interesting quote is he states Flybe counted for 24% of flights at CWL. Over the past few days I've seen numbers for what Flybe did at CWL ranging from 24-51% so hopefully this is accurate. He also states Flybe only generated 5.6% revenue for CWL. Not sure how that figure is calculated whether it's based on passenger throughput as well as fees and charges, and where the so called funding Flybe had comes in to it.
I hope that Loganair have come in at a deal more beneficial for CWL. It is likely their pricing structure will be more expensive than Flybe but hopefully both Loganair and CWL will make money from it. It's pointless getting hundreds of thousands through the door if no money is made from them!
 

Jerry

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The 24% sounds like the summer figure while winter would be about 40%.
Revenue wise its probable due to the more 'commuter' type passenger of Flybe they spent less in car parking and good and drink than TUI passengers do.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Good to see Ken Skates being reasonably vocal about the effect of Flybe on CWL. A few Twitter posts in the past few days. One of the ones retweeted by CWL:

The interesting quote is he states Flybe counted for 24% of flights at CWL. Over the past few days I've seen numbers for what Flybe did at CWL ranging from 24-51% so hopefully this is accurate. He also states Flybe only generated 5.6% revenue for CWL. Not sure how that figure is calculated whether it's based on passenger throughput as well as fees and charges, and where the so called funding Flybe had comes in to it.
I hope that Loganair have come in at a deal more beneficial for CWL. It is likely their pricing structure will be more expensive than Flybe but hopefully both Loganair and CWL will make money from it. It's pointless getting hundreds of thousands through the door if no money is made from them!
The number of flights each day is surely of little relevance when it comes to an airline's financial worth to an airport. flybmi often had more flights each day than TUI from Bristol but carried a small fraction of the passenger numbers that feed smaller airport ancillary revenue streams such as retail and car parking.

If Flybe really did generate such a small percentage of CWL revenue that's asking for yet more criticism from political opponents given that the airport through its owners reportedly paid millions of pounds to Flybe to return to CWL in 2015 in a much bigger presence. No doubt the answer will be that the connectivity provided by Flybe justified it.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Blue Islands have stepped in to operate the former Flybe JER routes from BHX and EXT. Don't know why they haven't done the same with CWL. Can't be their BRS-JER route that's stopping them because EXT is as much a competitor to BRS as is CWL. Aurigny have also announced an EXT-GCI route and they operate BRS-GCI.

A post in the EXT forum suggests that Blue Islands have said they are looking at more destinations..................
 

Jerry

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I think with limited resources Cardiff isn't just a priority for them or Eastern Airways at the moment.
 

Jerry

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Blue Islands has just added Newquay to Jersey. Surely Cardiff will be next? Or is it going to Thomas Cook all over again!
 

TheLocalYokel

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Blue Islands has just added Newquay to Jersey. Surely Cardiff will be next? Or is it going to Thomas Cook all over again!
You'd certainly think and expect that CWL would be next given that Blue Islands will soon be flying to the Channel Islands from Bristol, Exeter, Newquay and Southampton regional airports in the south/south west plus Birmingham just outside that sector of the country.

I note that NQY-JER will be 3 x weekly June-September. CWL would no doubt be hoping for a longer season than that with more days flown each week too.
 

Jerry

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You'd certainly think and expect that CWL would be next given that Blue Islands will soon be flying to the Channel Islands from Bristol, Exeter, Newquay and Southampton regional airports in the south/south west plus Birmingham just outside that sector of the country.

I note that NQY-JER will be 3 x weekly June-September. CWL would no doubt be hoping for a longer season than that with more days flown each week too.
My concern is that airlines with limited resources seem to be focusing very much on routes to and from and in England and may have nothing left for Cardiff and that even the 1 route regained the frequency of it is very poor compared to previously. I know it's better than nothing but still a big loss on such an important route.
 

mathers_wales_uk

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My concern as ever is that Cardiff Airport appears not to be a priority.

It would be interesting to know that out of the New Jersey routes how popular the routes were passenger numbers wise compare to the Cardiff Airport numbers.

This may show how likely Cardiff Airport are to have these replaced. Also airlines may already be aware that passengers from South Wales are prepared to travel from Bristol so will just concentrate there while they have limited aircraft/crew availability.
 
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