Air Canada Rouge

ethanegcc

Platinum Member
Jul 10, 2016
2,109
163
UK
That's a shame, I'd really hoped to see some positive movement from AC moving forwards. I'm not reading anything into the old MAN flight number being reallocated, but this is one I'd hoped to see positive movement from.
Me too, I mean, obviously there is time to change but at least the route is bootable again.
 

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ethanegcc

Platinum Member
Jul 10, 2016
2,109
163
UK
That's a shame, I'd really hoped to see some positive movement from AC moving forwards. I'm not reading anything into the old MAN flight number being reallocated, but this is one I'd hoped to see positive movement from.
Me too, I mean, obviously there is time to change but at least the route is bootable again.
 

Aceshigh

Well-Known Member
Nov 24, 2015
783
63
Rouge seem happy to cream off passengers prepared to pay top whack.
Just frustrating that it's a short season when there must be potential?
 

Dobbo

New Member
Oct 27, 2015
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One of the interesting things is that Rouge's fares have historically been quite high...
 

ethanegcc

Platinum Member
Jul 10, 2016
2,109
163
UK
On a separate note to AA's reliability issues, Air Canada Rouge have been appalling this year for delays. In addition, I remember the shambolic management on the delay that lasted over 24hours.

Today, it's arrival has been delayed to 1103 - and I haven't seen it leave on it's scheduled departure time for a very long time. I am certainly happy that I have booked Air Transat for my Canada trip next year, and not AC Rouge!
 

Dobbo

New Member
Oct 27, 2015
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0
I do wonder if we'll see a shake up on the MAN-Canada market.

It sounds like DUB got the AC mainline flight over MAN (I think it has MANs old flight number?) so they must be considered unlikely.

Westjet seem to make a lot of noise and I wonder if they might disrupt Rouge and Transat at MAN and elsewhere in the coming years.
 

Dobbo

New Member
Oct 27, 2015
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0
Slightly disappointing to see AC have launched a number of new routes, mostly from YVR, including an additional daily rotation to LHR.

I'm not knocking them for grabbing a slot while they can, but I wanted to look at the Montreal-Tokyo route, which is to be flown by a daily B788.

According to routesonline the annual O&D between the city pair is 24,880, with average one way fares of $659.

Looking at MAN-YYZ, the traffic on the route in 2016 was 105,480. It was very seasonal, with 24,789 carried in August alone, but is a far larger market (even excluding indirect routings and surface leakage). It is anecdotal, but fares (particularly on rouge) are huge. The flight time is far shorter than YUL-NRT.

I can only imagine that the seasonal nature of the route or yield are holding back AC mainline from revisiting MAN. I expect most long haul growth to come from the east, with anything from the west being a bonus. However, MAN-YYZ strikes me as prime for a shakeup in the next year or two.
 

Coathanger16

Premium Member+
Subscriber
Sep 29, 2016
1,603
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Horsham
Slightly disappointing to see AC have launched a number of new routes, mostly from YVR, including an additional daily rotation to LHR.

I'm not knocking them for grabbing a slot while they can, but I wanted to look at the Montreal-Tokyo route, which is to be flown by a daily B788.

According to routesonline the annual O&D between the city pair is 24,880, with average one way fares of $659.

Looking at MAN-YYZ, the traffic on the route in 2016 was 105,480. It was very seasonal, with 24,789 carried in August alone, but is a far larger market (even excluding indirect routings and surface leakage). It is anecdotal, but fares (particularly on rouge) are huge. The flight time is far shorter than YUL-NRT.

I can only imagine that the seasonal nature of the route or yield are holding back AC mainline from revisiting MAN. I expect most long haul growth to come from the east, with anything from the west being a bonus. However, MAN-YYZ strikes me as prime for a shakeup in the next year or two.
Two points to consider - Manchester is already served by Air Canada Rouge, the more leisure branch of Air Canada - how much of the Manchester to Toronto traffic is leisure vs business. Which of the two airlines is the better fit for Manchester?

The other point, Air Canada may already see Manchester as being served by the 'Air Canada group' as it were. Besides an introduction of business class, whats the benefit for passengers? Equally, by 'upgrading' (switching) MAN-YYZ from Air Canada Rouge to Air Canada, what benefit will it bring to Air Canada.
 

Dobbo

New Member
Oct 27, 2015
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Air Canada is not a premium heavy carrier in the mould of SQ, CX.

By way of example, it's B788 is "denser" than AA's B788 which will operate MAN-ORD from March next year.

Also, the leisure v business argument is a bit of a misnomer. Business passengers travel in economy and leisure passengers travel in business.

If you accept there is a strong correlation, LHR business traffic is roughly 30%. I think MAN's equivalent is 10%, which is broadly in line with the density of AC's B788 (20J, 21 PE, 210Y).

AC do consider MAN served via Rouge. That's not to say this is an end game. The service can (if justifiable) be upgraded to the benefit of passengers and AC:
  • The benefit to AC would be that MAN becomes a better spoke feeding into their North American network, expanding upon the reasonably large O&D market. YYZ is as good a place for onward connections as anywhere in north east USA. It would almost certainly put a stop to anything westjet have planned at MAN.
  • The benefit to passengers would be a better product, distinct from Transat and other competition on the route, a presumably longer season, and a better route into North America (at present Rouge will not compete with the likes of UA, AA, DL, Icelandair for connecting traffic).

I think the point is, there are good reasons to believe the market is there. However, do AC think they'll make more money using an aircraft elsewhere?
 

Coathanger16

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Sep 29, 2016
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I'm not saying Air Canada shouldn't be at Manchester, just trying to get my head round why they would switch from Rouge to mainline.

My point about leisure was more about what each airline offers. Yes people travelling for business travel economy, however generally, they will still expect a better level of service, whilst someone travelling economy for leisure would be more prepared to forego 'features' such as meals, seat allocation, etc. for a cheaper ticket - although its often been commented on here how 'expensive' Rouge can be.

I'm not sure about your point regarding onward connections at YYZ. Travelling Rouge you would still have the same access to the same network as if you were travelling mainline. Equally a longer season and more frequent flights could be provided by Rouge.

I think your last point sums it up though - why would AC send mainline to Manchester instead of a currently unserved destination when Manchester is already served by AC (Rouge). I think the most likely scenario would be if AC want to serve Vancouver from Manchester - switch Rouge to Vancouver and 'upgrade' Toronto to mainline. That's now the situation at Dublin (an airport that in some respects can be considered on a level par with Manchester).

I think what happens with Air Canada at Manchester will highly depend on what happens with WestJet. The latter have plans to introduce a low cost subsidiary. If this low cost airline comes to Manchester, it is likely Rouge will stick around. If instead WestJet comes to Manchester, perhaps AC mainline will return. If WestJet doesn't make an appearance at Manchester, what incentive will AC have to expand/improve?
 

Dobbo

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Oct 27, 2015
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I'm trying to be technical here and multi quote - please bear with me if it goes wrong!

I'm not saying Air Canada shouldn't be at Manchester, just trying to get my head round why they would switch from Rouge to mainline.
Fair enough, in general terms I think full service carriers models can be treated as an identikit to one another. Not all are premium heavy, but they do require a minimum level of demand and a sufficiently large and affluent market for a good economy product.

My point about leisure was more about what each airline offers. Yes people travelling for business travel economy, however generally, they will still expect a better level of service, whilst someone travelling economy for leisure would be more prepared to forego 'features' such as meals, seat allocation, etc. for a cheaper ticket - although its often been commented on here how 'expensive' Rouge can be.
I think these are fair points. What I would argue is that MAN (and the UK in general) has a solid demand for good quality economy service (and the ability to pay for it).

Some of the prices I've seen for Rouge when compared to VS, SQ, CX are extraordinary - more so when you see what you get for that.

I'm not sure about your point regarding onward connections at YYZ. Travelling Rouge you would still have the same access to the same network as if you were travelling mainline. Equally a longer season and more frequent flights could be provided by Rouge.
The point is that YYZ is geographically close to ORD and PHL (for AA), JFK (for VS/DL) and EWR (for UA) and arguably competes for the same connecting traffic.

However, given that the prices are in the same ballpark for Rouge (compared with AA, VS/DL &a UA above) I'd say almost all passengers would choose to fly with a full service airline (This may be different if travelling to YYZ).

Therefore, the theory goes that, in addition to MAN-YYZ O&D, AC could also capture more connecting traffic ex MAN (if it wants to of course) by going mainline.

I think your last point sums it up though - why would AC send mainline to Manchester instead of a currently unserved destination when Manchester is already served by AC (Rouge). I think the most likely scenario would be if AC want to serve Vancouver from Manchester - switch Rouge to Vancouver and 'upgrade' Toronto to mainline. That's now the situation at Dublin (an airport that in some respects can be considered on a level par with Manchester).
Yes. If YYZ-MAN can be upgraded to mainline, it frees up Rouge to serve somewhere else from YYZ.

The scenario you suggest above seems like a realistic "next step" but I don't know how realistic this is.

I think what happens with Air Canada at Manchester will highly depend on what happens with WestJet. The latter have plans to introduce a low cost subsidiary. If this low cost airline comes to Manchester, it is likely Rouge will stick around. If instead WestJet comes to Manchester, perhaps AC mainline will return. If WestJet doesn't make an appearance at Manchester, what incentive will AC have to expand/improve?
Don't forget TCX. They aren't likely to look at YVR due to their operation at SEA. YYZ might be a different story in the next few years.

TS are (I think) replacing the A310s with A321LR, so this might put pressure on AC.
Of course, this pressure might drive them away from MAN completely (you just don't know!)
 

Chilly Dog

Member
Jul 23, 2016
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Sydney
Rouge is designed for routes with stronger economy - and lower business - demand. Also for destinations with seasonal demand.

MAN is pretty much the perfect Rouge route. AC love the money they make in the Summer, but there is nowhere near demand for AC in the winter.

AC's aim is to charge more for passengers to Canada, but to be more competitive beyond Canada.

From Manchester that can only be the US. And there are plenty of ways to get to the US on the cheap from Manchester. So all they have left is the direct Canadian business...which they serve with a 5 x weekly high season.
 

Dobbo

New Member
Oct 27, 2015
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I'm not advocating a year round service. I am advocating a seasonal YYZ on mainline.

As a generalisation, I don't see the minimal business traffic - lower than LHR for sure - but during the summer season there are hundreds of each way TATL business class seats ex MAN. Is Canada really that much lower demand than the US?

Following the template at DUB seems a realistic aspiration to me.
 

ethanegcc

Platinum Member
Jul 10, 2016
2,109
163
UK
Air Canada Rouge has suspended service:

Between London Gatwick and Vancouver for next summer. Instead they are offering second daily 787 service from Vancouver to Heathrow.
 

Dobbo

New Member
Oct 27, 2015
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0
After AC shifted Casablanca (ex Montreal) to mainline, and rouge added a bunch of Eastern European states, I can't imagine MAN is in their thoughts.

Disappointing, but this seems to be the reality.

Further Canada services are likely to have to come from Transat or a domestic carrier. Strange, as the market seems to be picking up a little.
 

groobs

Member
Feb 15, 2016
48
8
Lancashire
The Canadian dollar to the pound rate has gone through the floor this past year and a bit.

It was over two C$ to the £ mid-June 2016. It's now 1.65. It hasn't recovered like the US$ has.

That won't encourage travel to Canada, and it's probably why the likes of AC, Rouge and Air Transat are looking elsewhere in Europe.
 
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Dobbo

New Member
Oct 27, 2015
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0
It's a shame we can't get more inbound traffic, hopefully it'll settle down for S19.
 

Curious Pax

New Member
Dec 5, 2018
11
3
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Manchester
Looks like we might have seen the last of Rouge at MAN. Air Canada have announced as part of their Q1 results that they are retiring their E190s, 319s and 767s, which includes the Rouge fleet. In the discussion on airliners.net a contributor stated that in the company’s Q&A session they confirmed Rouge would become a narrow body operation, with some of the long haul leisure routes moving to 77W or A330s on mainline - can’t see that including MAN. Nothing was said about the Air Transat merger, so not clear how that is affected by the current issue.
 

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