Potential Routes

[Aviador]

Just about every other airport on Forums4airports has a thread for Potential Routes so I thought it would be a good idea to start a thread for potential routes for Manchester airport.

Realistically what routes are achievable for the airport? What destinations do people think are workable from Manchester airport that don't already exist. What routes would be considered as a long shot, thoughts anyone?

 

[User0001]

Personally my list is:

Long Haul:

Hong Kong (Hanian or Cathay Pacific). 138000 pax via LHR alone, along with the huge cargo volumes cant be a bad basis to start a route. Dont understand to this day what is stopping either airline opening the route

Delhi: DEL themselves are tendering the route, with a potential for 54000 pax apparently

Beijing: A route to one of the worlds fastest growing economies, I can see a route working there

Kuala Lumpur: Air Asia X were apparently close to starting this year, but the APD put them off. Shows there must be a market

Charlotte: US does well at MAN, so much so, MAN is in their top 5 profitable routes. Maybe a seasonal B757 route, as many people think it would work well.

Mumbai: Jet is apparently very keen to start the route, so who knows?

Short Haul

Vienna: BTS did well with both Sky Europe and Danube wings, but NE went bust and V5 decided jet ops were not for them. Most pax were heading to Vienna, so maybe a route for BD on an LHR W pattern?

Tallin: BT seem to try year after year, maybe if they actually put a half assed effort in, they might make it work

Moscow: DME is tendering a route, and S7 with its oneworld connections may do well. DUB has a seasonal S7 route, and im pretty sure if DUB can make it work, MAN cant be far behind.

Madrid: I know we now have FR/U2 on the route, but Iberia with its connections and now BA backing may still work on the route.

Tel Aviv: Dont know why EL AL is missing this one out, jet2 making a killing on the route

Just my thoughts anyway

 

[pilot_737]

I would like to see a direct route to LAX open up (I believe New Zealand airways are doing so?) so that the US West Coast is more easily accessed. I'm sure business and leisure passengers would provide enough demand.
I would also like to see a route to South America, I'm sure that would pull in a lot of custom. I know of a few people that connect elsewhere out of MAN for Brazil/Paraguay/Argentina!


World_rep, I know its the lingo of your business an all, but could you maybe use the names of the less known airports and airlines in your posts?! I know a fair few of the ICAO/IATA codes you refer to but the odd one I don't (google is my friend!) and I'm sure other users of the forum may not know any! :good: (forgive me If I am coming across as demanding! haha)

Thanks by the way for all your posts about MAN, they make for interesting reading. I personally read most of your posts but I don't have anything of interest to reply with!!!

 

[User0001]

yeah no problems ben, Ill use airport names in the future.

Thanks for the support too.

 

[yorkshire]

Why isnt there any flights direct to Sidney or Melbourne from manchester, im sure years ago Quantas did direct flights but i could be wrong.

 

[User0001]

Qantas used to serve Sydney, cant remember where it was via, but, after BA aquired 25% of QF, MAN was dropped in favour of shipping pax down to LHR.
Conspirasists say BA 'persuaded' QF to drop MAN, and for me, the timing was slightly too convinent, but, Its up to the individual as to what they believe.

 

[Aviador]

I agree, it did seem a bit odd when Manchester lost Qantas. Just about every man and his dog has either been to Australia or has family or friends that live there. It's no wonder Emirates do such a roaring trade from Manchester. A large proportion of Emirates passengers must be heading to Australia.

 

[User0001]

Yes, Manchester-Australia is a large market, but I believe its quite spread out over SYD/MEL/BNE/PER and so on, so quite hard to single out which airport would suit a flight best.
However, jetstar has always said that if Euro expansion happens, it will be to places 'where demand exsists but where the Qantas business model isnt suitable', with MAN/ATH/FCO being candidates.

Anyway, a wild rumour Ive heard today is that EK want to add the A380 to LAX, so LAX can make use of the F class suites. What to do with MAN I hear you ask? Well, the proposed route is apparently DXB-MAN-LAX-MAN-DXB.

Its a wild one, but does tie in a few separate rumours:

1-that a 2nd A380 will be a feature of MAN from September
2-that EK want to expand services at MAN further (as well as next months 3rd daily)
3-that MAN are close to securing a west coast USA route.

Could be one to watch!

 

[User0001]

There seems to be a growing rumour that EL AL Israeli airlines could soon be starting Manchester.

A football charter ran MAN-TLV-MAN last week on an EL AL B737-700, and, a crew member has supposedly let slip that they will soon be serving the route on a scheduled basis.

Add to that, there seem to be staff at the airport who have heard the same, and that B737-800's will be used. I have also heard this is why Jet2 looked to be going 5 weekly (as per MAN timetable) but have had their plans put on hold.

Could be one to watch.

 

[User0001]

Interesting to read back over this thread.

In particular my list of potential routes, which now sees some changes.

Charlotte will be served next year, as will Vienna.

Moscow is now served by Easyjet, Madrid still under Ryanair control, Tel Aviv with easyjet, and Tallinn with Ryanair.

In terms of a revised list, here is mine:

Hong Kong. Still unserved, still a huge market and still needed. Cathay Pacific have gone on public record to say MAN will be served when the A350 comes online, but, as ever, we wait with baited breath.

Phuket. Thomson have this winter opened up an LGW-HKT route and there is quite a demand from the North, so, there could be a chance to open the route from MAN.

Beijing. Air China have applied for a 4 weekly flight, and the China market is a well discussed one, so will not add any more here.

San Fransisco. A west coast USA route would be hugely beneficial to MAN. We have plugged many gaps in the other North America routes, so west coast is the next logical step.

Short Haul:

Bucharest. With the vast majority of Euro Capitals now served at MAN, and with the travel restrictions on Romania relaxed next year, this is the last of the 'large' euro capitals to be left.

Kiev. There seems to be a growing market in Ukraine and there are no direct routes north of London. There are many Ukrainians dotted around England, another option could be well utilised. However Wizz are the most likely to open up a UK region to Ukraine, and, well, we know they are not interested in MAN.

Casablanca: North Africa seems to be a strong market from MAN, and even has 2 scheduled routes to Morocco, but, one of North Arica's main cities is not served. Could be one for Royal Air Maroc (who do apply for slots every year at MAN), or Air Arabia Maroc who have also reportedly shown interest in MAN.

Other than those, I don't quite know what could be realistic additions on the short haul network, as it either involves duplication or is a small market. Quite a good position to be in really, I suppose.

 

[Dobbo]

Interesting to read back over this thread.

In particular my list of potential routes, which now sees some changes.

Charlotte will be served next year, as will Vienna.

Moscow is now served by Easyjet, Madrid still under Ryanair control, Tel Aviv with easyjet, and Tallinn with Ryanair.

In terms of a revised list, here is mine:

Hong Kong. Still unserved, still a huge market and still needed. Cathay Pacific have gone on public record to say MAN will be served when the A350 comes online, but, as ever, we wait with baited breath.

Phuket. Thomson have this winter opened up an LGW-HKT route and there is quite a demand from the North, so, there could be a chance to open the route from MAN.

Beijing. Air China have applied for a 4 weekly flight, and the China market is a well discussed one, so will not add any more here.

San Fransisco. A west coast USA route would be hugely beneficial to MAN. We have plugged many gaps in the other North America routes, so west coast is the next logical step.

Short Haul:

Bucharest. With the vast majority of Euro Capitals now served at MAN, and with the travel restrictions on Romania relaxed next year, this is the last of the 'large' euro capitals to be left.

Kiev. There seems to be a growing market in Ukraine and there are no direct routes north of London. There are many Ukrainians dotted around England, another option could be well utilised. However Wizz are the most likely to open up a UK region to Ukraine, and, well, we know they are not interested in MAN.

Casablanca: North Africa seems to be a strong market from MAN, and even has 2 scheduled routes to Morocco, but, one of North Arica's main cities is not served. Could be one for Royal Air Maroc (who do apply for slots every year at MAN), or Air Arabia Maroc who have also reportedly shown interest in MAN.

Other than those, I don't quite know what could be realistic additions on the short haul network, as it either involves duplication or is a small market. Quite a good position to be in really, I suppose.

Two years further on, and the thread is still interesting! Much of what has been hypothesised has come to pass...

 

[Land23R]

An interesting list by User001 as you say Dobbo. Charlotte & Moscow have come and gone as has Tallinn; while we still await Bucharest. It will be disappointing if Tallinn doesn't return or Bucharest start in the near future. Not sure how high Kiev and Casablanca are on the agenda.

Still, HKG and PEK are big gains with SFO planned to follow next summer. Not mentioned on that list but we still await news on Shanghai.

 

[Dobbo]

Absolutely, some more User_001 crystal ball gazing would be great!

 

[User001]

I'll do an updated list later on today given the plethora of new route announcements of late.

 

[User001]

So, my list of potential routes. Obviously MAN has their own list of 25 potential routes, but some of those are unlikely to be served for a while and are a generic wish list. I'm only going to put routes I think have a realistic chance of being served in the next 2-3 years. The routes I will cover will be completely new routes not currently served, unless I state the reason a duplicated route is on the list.

Long haul

Montreal

Air Transat have announced it to start from GLA this summer, and run it from LGW too, so, not unreasonable to expect a 1 weekly MAN route too. Worth noting GLA lost 1 of its 2 weekly YVR flights to accommodate YUL however, and given its bigger pull, would rather keep our 2 weekly YVR if it came to a choice

Costa Rica

I fully expect that I time, Thomson will announce Liberia to compliment their LGW route, just like they have done with Aruba, Mauritius and Phuket. It's a real up and coming tourist spot now.

Rio De Janeiro

Given Thomas Cook are giving MAN some fantastic routes, and mirroring the model of Condor at Frankfurt, I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that Rio could be served on a 2 weekly basis. It's always had a large touristic draw, and, as TCX get more confident with their routes, and more people realise how expansive the TCX network is getting, then it could come.
As a side note, I'm surprised TCX don't offer connections on their own flights. For places like Faro, Palma, Sofia, Bourgas and Malaga, all with large local populations in their own right, to have more long haul connection links, especially low cost, could reap huge rewards.

Guangzhou

I think after Shanghai is launched, this would be the next logical Chinese city to be launched. Some huge numbers heading here on connections, almost as many as Beijing, huge manufacturing areas and many Chinese locals in the North West hail from this area.

Seoul

I honestly think this one has legs.
As we know, Korean are operating 2 charters to GLA this summer, so, we know the inbound UK tourism has potential. Also, the amount of cargo coming from MAN to ICN is quite large, and I'm honestly at a loss to why we couldn't at least have a 1 weekly cargo flight. Plenty of connecting pax come from the MAN catchment too.
Maybe if the charters prove a success, it could push Korean to look at a schedule route. I know it has some things going for it to help, but if Prague can fill an A380 to Seoul, MAN can fill a 2 weekly A330 at the very least.

Cape Town

Done to death but needs to be on the list. Not going to go over this again.

There are other routes such as Dallas, Havana, Tokyo, Delhi, Mumbai and Muscat that have been done before, so won't harp on about them too.

There are also places like Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, and Sydney, but, realstically, there is no one to serve them for a long time yet.

Short haul will follow later.

 

[User001]

Short haul.

With short haul, I'm not going to go into the ins and outs of why it should be served, but instead just name the route and who I think could operate it.

Bucharest: TAROM or Ryanair
Warsaw Chopin: LOT
Seville: Vueling or Ryanair
Dresden: Flybe?
Tromso: Norwegian
Vagar: Atlantic Airways
Asturias: Vueling
Florence: Vueling or Monarch
Moscow: Vim Avia or Aeroflot
Ovda: Monarch
Turin: convert to year round

 

[Dobbo]

Re long haul;

Clearly there is an element that the need/demand for a particular route to align with an airline capable of operating that route.

Cape Town and Rio - TCX - CPT has been done to death, it must be their next long haul route from MAN after LAX and SFO become established. Rio wold be a good one, how long would that sector be?

Seoul - would need to be a Korea Air, and I thought it would be a long shot but it does make sense. I'd question whether they would look to a scottish airport first? Are they in an alliance?

Guangzhou with China Southern is an obvious combination. If Beijing and Shanghai become successful I think we will see a large increase in chinese flights.

Montreal - canada in general - Id like to see more air canada at man but transaat make sense. Perhaps Vancouver would be a good route?

Not sure I agree with sydney, the choice via the MEB3, SQ (if decoupled from MUC) CX, and possibly the chinese carriers will mean a Qantas service would be redundant unless done in conjunction with Emirates?

Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok are a shame, huge demand, but Malaysian and Thai are in such a state they won't be able to do anything soon. I'd hope they could one day, not sure Air ASIA X is quite in the same league...

 

[User001]

Vancouver is offered with Air Transat, and I think that's all we need really. 2 carriers on the route would dilute yield to the point we could loose both carriers.

In terms of Sydney, I agree the market is covered by 1 stop carriers, however, Qantas tying in with Emirates means in theory, Qantas could offer a SYD-DXB-MAN on say, a B787. This would not be against Emirates as they are in a joint venture profit share, but, it could then free up capacity on other Emirates routes on MAN-DXB-XXX.

Manchester is currently Qantas 3rd busiest and 6th highest yield route in Europe via the Emirates joint venture, so, the market is there without doubt.

 

[Dobbo]

Is Qantas behind LHR and LGW? What are the other higher yielding routes? (I assume Qantas DONT codeshare on all Emirates kangaroo routes?)

I Don't think that offering a direct flight to SYD from MAN is necessarily a good idea, I bet demand is split between Sydney and Melbourne - not to say Perth and Brisbane. I think they would want to allow passengers to change and/or join the flight at Dubai.

If they wanted to show the Qantas flag, I would suggest using a Qantas branded (or Emirates/Qantas dual branded - a la Concorde SQ/BA branding in the 70s) A380 for the MAN-DXB sector might be a good marketing ploy? This could stand in as the 4th daily...

Perhaps this is a little hypocritical on my part, as I have been advocating ANZ to run into MAN via LAX/SFO. The difference as I see it is that MAN-LAX/SFO is a largely underserved market and not served at all by the star alliance. I beleive ANZ and SQ code share out of MAN, so I don't know how that would be affected, but LHR-AKL with ANZ is not doing well. I think the route stands or falls on LHR-LAX and AKL-LAX as standalones.

Vancouver, perhaps Transaat will upgrade the route? Are ther inward travel options?

In terms of my ambitions for MAN, I may at times be looking 5-10 years in the future whereas I accept that 0-5 years is much more relevant.

 

[David_itl]

Here's the QF route map to Europe showing the codeshares over DXB. looks like pretty much all the EK network in Europe. It also shows the DXB-Australia routings.