Hi @Aceshigh whilst I agree the general trend towards airlines focusing on "London", "Manchester" and "Scotland" I'm not sure I agree Norwegian cutting back across the U.K. Is a positive sign for anyone concerned!!
 
Hi @Aceshigh whilst I agree the general trend towards airlines focusing on "London", "Manchester" and "Scotland" I'm not sure I agree Norwegian cutting back across the U.K. Is a positive sign for anyone concerned!!
My comment was framed as good news in the context of this being the Manchester thread.
 
But it's also slightly nerving, when all other routes are cut, then no guesses as to where gets cut next if they need to do so.....
 
The scots!!!

(Oh wait, APD...)
Or that Scotland is a big tourist attraction and has a big connection as well with Scandinavia and North America. 3 of Norwegians EDI routes are to Scandinavia, 3 are to North America and 2 are to sun destinations.
 
That it is true, Scotland is a beautiful place. Doesn't follow that this is the cause of the airline focus. APD, geography and loads of other commercial reasons will come into play.

Ps - I should add that Norwegian have a reputation for incentive chasing...
 
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One of those US EDI routes had some pretty poor load factors. I can't see 60% load factor lasting on an LCC.
 
Is that right? Seems very low, but we know loads on seasonal flights can tail off at the end of a season...

Yes - if a the average is over a period of time - there is no way the route lasts past any incentive period!
 
I"m probably in the minority but i do hope Norwegian avoid Manchester re long haul to US "unless"they are new routes that definitely don't compete with our current structure.
Some may view them as the future but they are most definitely not a Ryanair or EasyJet as far as the balance sheet goes.
---------------------------
At Edinburgh 2 x Newark with United has just reduced to 1. Were Norwegian instrumental in that ?

To compound matters daily New York / Stewart etc has dropped down to 5 with that aircraft now apparently redeployed to Providence!

Can we see that lasting come January February?

Norwegian will swap /change routes etc on a whim.

Lets be clear if they could not make money on Alicante, Tenerife etc sunshine routes that are 100% solid performers what chance the Unites States ?

Generally speaking such routes do not ebb and flo based on geo-political issues , they are successful regardless.

If they cannot make Spain work what chance the US?

They could also could jeopardise the fledgling routes that are only just getting established!

Kuala Lumpur, Mumbai, YES
Oakland, Newark NO
 
100% agree with you.

I'd not like to see them on TATL routes, which are the only realistic MAX routes they could try. On my part this is largely protectionist for TCX, VS et al.

I'd love to see them try some of the more exotic and unserved routes that have decent numbers of passengers either historically or indirectly. Bangkok is a classic example, but you could add Kuala Lumpur, South Africa and India to those.

That would probably put pay to the likes of TG opening BKK, but it would be a good step forwards for MAN in terms of route network diversity.

Million dollar question is how long it would last.
 
Lets be clear if they could not make money on Alicante, Tenerife etc sunshine routes that are 100% solid performers what chance the Unites States ?

To be equally clear, Monarch went bust in part due to the fact there was too much competition on the 'sunshine' routes. Their plan was to switch to long haul which external advisers said showed promise. Just because they couldn't 'make money' from sunshine routes doesn't mean that Norwegian wouldn't be able to from long haul routes.

I'm not disagreeing with your main point, indeed when United were flying to BHX I didn't want Norwegian flying long haul from there as well for the same reasons you mention.

As you say, pick a route with a lot of competition on it and Norwegian aren't going to do well. Pick a route with little/no competition on and they'll do fine.
 
Oakland, Newark NO
Well New York wise MAN has what 4 flights a day? 3 to JFK 1 to Newark? Depending on what aircraft type I'd have thought Newark could take an extra daily flight. With somewhere like Oakland if it's only 2 or 3 weekly then it could complement SFO which I believe isn't daily. Yes Norwegian would look at the US but they could also potentially look at South America and Asia as well bringing not only competition and a different product on existing routes but potentially new routes as well if they used widebodies at MAN.
 
I think @Coathanger16 makes a good point. Norwegian' purported success at LGW has focused on creating/stimulating new markets rather than grabbing market share.

Take the example of sun routes from MAN, I'd bet they never got attractive slot times which, ironically, might now be available even if they are highly sought after.

A long haul focus at MAN would be welcome, but I hope it is to stimulate new markets rather than compete on existing ones.
 
To be equally clear, Monarch went bust in part due to the fact there was too much competition on the 'sunshine' routes.

I think there was also undertones of the other carriers smelling blood, and pricing Monarch out of the market.

Let's face it, we all know that Monarch had issues 12 months ago, and they were on the ropes. It was never publicly admitted, but we know.

I think in that 12 months, some carriers may have seen an oppertunity and deliberately lowered prices, knowing Monarch may have to match or die away anyway. Inevitably they did try to price match (the holiday I had booked for January was stupidly cheap), and this could have lead to their demise.

The fact prices have risen quite a bit for next year with effectively just monarch out of the picture tends to show something else was going on. If Norwegian do indeed return to the sun routes from Manchester, then it would confirm my suspicions in my own thoughts.
 
100% - and that leads you to question how they might behave in the MAN-NYC market.

At face value, the current incumbents (UA, VS, TCX) are well set. Each appear to have modest expansion plans over the coming year or two.

How would Norwegian affect these plans and the current balance with their bargain basement fares? There is also the question of whether OW might have another go at MAN-JFK.

What do MAN want to offer? How can that be protected in any commercial agreement with Norwegian?
 
Orange, blue and red - like a political chat!

That doesn't mean they won't ringlead moving forward!

I just hope if their long haul comes to MAN, it will be innovative in a similar vein to their operation at LGW.
 
It was certainly red that did the damage to MON at BHX, as you said MON had 12 months to turn it around and the red crowd did what you would expect them to do. I will amazed if NAX go back into MAN in S18 after they only said a few weeks ago that would be pulling MAN & BHX sun flights. I hope I am wrong they come back to both airports.
With regard NAX long haul ??
 
Well Norwegian have re-applied for a shed load of slots next summer, and just 2 days ago told 3 different people via different social media that MAN-AGP at the very least was returning.

Given MAN is Alicantes busiest route, and DY/VY and MON all exiting said route at the same time, I think it will be a matter of time before something gives...
 

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