Vueling

[Jerry]

There was certainly a thought by some at the time that Ryanair announced its CWL-TFS route that it might have been partly a reminder to BRS that it isn't the only airport in the area, although in truth I can't think that the main reason for starting the route was other than a purely a commercial one.

BRS had dug in its heels with Ryanair a year or two before the CWL route started by refusing to bow to Ryanair's demands over overnight parking and peak hour charges. The result was that Ryanair reduced the BRS base from five aircraft to two aircraft for the summer of 2013. However, they didn't reduce the number of flights. They actually increased them slightly over summer 2012 by using aircraft from many of their other bases. In some ways it benefited BRS because it evened out the daily peaks and troughs a bit.

Interestingly, Ryanair made no public comment about this as they usually do when they fall out with an airport, with concomitant threats to reduce the number of flights which will act as a brake on the local economy etc.

Since then the base has steadily and quietly returned to the five aircraft.

I do wonder as well that with Vuelings presence on the money making Spanish routes as to whether the airport feel it would not be worth the hassle of upsetting Vueling by trying to get Ryanair to make a big commitment as i would have thought they would've at least wanted a 2-3 plane base and Ryanair might not want to make that big a commitment to CWL. It might suit the airport for Vueling to expand its Spanish offering and eventually bring in Rome Florence and possibly Paris with a view to that plane then doing somewhere like Split or Athens/Greek islands or maybe a southern France destination a couple of times a week. (I may be thinking out of the box now! lol) While Ryanair could just concentrate on TFS a couple of times a week and Gran Canaria as well. As well it could be then that if the airport and Ryanair had another falling they would be left in lurch with no routes covered and Vueling would be well within there rights to say stuff you and the airport would be back to square one.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

You are certainly not alone in wondering whether a substantial Ryanair presence which would undoubtedly include the main sun routes might affect Vueling. It's certainly a teaser for the airport in wondering whether to give Ryanair the sort of deal that might well see them expand but to the possible exclusion of Vueling. Ryanair would certainly increase overall passenger throughput considerably - more than Vueling would - but the CWL management and owner have to decide whether they want a lot more passengers flying to relatively few but high demand sun routes against a perhaps more rounded portfolio of routes that Vueling might bring in the future.

My gut feeling would be to go with Ryanair if they were really interested, and try to ensure that Vueling were looked after as far as possible to try to get the best of both worlds. Then again it's not my job or my money on the line.

 

[Jerry]

You are certainly not alone in wondering whether a substantial Ryanair presence which would undoubtedly include the main sun routes might affect Vueling. It's certainly a teaser for the airport in wondering whether to give Ryanair the sort of deal that might well see them expand but to the possible exclusion of Vueling. Ryanair would certainly increase overall passenger throughput considerably - more than Vueling would - but the CWL management and owner have to decide whether they want a lot more passengers flying to relatively few but high demand sun routes against a perhaps more rounded portfolio of routes that Vueling might bring in the future.

My gut feeling would be to go with Ryanair if they were really interested, and try to ensure that Vueling were looked after as far as possible to try to get the best of both worlds. Then again it's not my job or my money on the line.

I wonder if the airport maybe just doesn't want all their aircraft in the fickle Ryanair basket! Plus there is a connection to IAG with the BAMC there which provides a lot of jobs to the area and I may be way off track could be access to cargo operations in the future especially with the engine plant in Taffs Well as i believe they get shipped to Heathrow for air cargo onwards. So it could be a case of don't upset IAG because it may effect other plans in the future. Then again i may be over thinking here and it could be Ryanair has very little interest in CWL!

 

[Jerry]

Vueling flights for the six nations are on sale.
ORY-CWL 17th March 08.30-0835 VY7974
CWL-ORY 17th March 09.20-11.25 VY7975

CWL-FCO 4th February 10.10-14.00 VY7980
FCO-CWL 6th February 09.50-11.40 VY7981

 

[CraigW92]

if Vueling did do a FCO or IBZ flight if Thomson and Thomas Cook could just use them for the flights. Wonder if Vueling have a southern Italy base? Though i have noticed Vueling are doing FCO and Orly flights for the six nations though the airport has really announced them.

I can't see that happening in regards to the first question, although BE have been used this summer with regards to FAO, simply with the one weekly from TOM allows for a 10 night option and also TCX took a percentage this year ( imagine the same will happen next year) any IBZ option from VY would in my view do very well in its own right.

FCO, FLR are current VY bases in Italy, although there are a host of Italian routes operated throughout its route network, it does look like existing bases will need additional aircraft if CWL was to see growth from airports such as FCO.

I think it will be Interesting to see what VY do with regards to other U.K airports, if significant growth is added from BHX, LBA for example it leaves questions as to what plans they have for CWL.

 

[Jerry]

I can't see that happening in regards to the first question, although BE have been used this summer with regards to FAO, simply with the one weekly from TOM allows for a 10 night option and also TCX took a percentage this year ( imagine the same will happen next year) any IBZ option from VY would in my view do very well in its own right.

FCO, FLR are current VY bases in Italy, although there are a host of Italian routes operated throughout its route network, it does look like existing bases will need additional aircraft if CWL was to see growth from airports such as FCO.

I think it will be Interesting to see what VY do with regards to other U.K airports, if significant growth is added from BHX, LBA for example it leaves questions as to what plans they have for CWL.

The problem for CWL is as VY expands it's network in the UK it could mean they may decide to just consolidate at CWL. Considering what happened with the Vueling network this year then maybe IAG will allocate more aircraft to them and they might also themselves charter more aircraft in advance. I have noticed though that the flights they have put on for the Six nations haven't been advertised or mentioned by the airport at all. I would've thought something like that would be good PR for the airport and VY. I do wonder if in the future that Vueling would consider doing what TCX does and base aircraft at British regional airports using firms like Smart Lynx. It might lead to them being able to expand at regional airports for the summer while not using current based aircraft?

 

[superking]

sounds good to base at cwl. one thing that will restrict base at cwl will be cost and pax loads.the cost of setting up a base at any airport is cost.that will be the problem at cwl as they are doing good with what they are doing now,is not enough pax to warrant a base as most routes can be done by bases already established. never say never thou.

 

[Jerry]

sounds good to base at cwl. one thing that will restrict base at cwl will be cost and pax loads.the cost of setting up a base at any airport is cost.that will be the problem at cwl as they are doing good with what they are doing now,is not enough pax to warrant a base as most routes can be done by bases already established. never say never thou.

I'd be very surprised (but very happy) if Vueling set up a base at CWL but the with flights already on sale for next year (4 weekly BCN, 4 weekly PMI, 4 weekly AGP and 4 weekly ALC) they do enough flights to occupy a based plane. Hopefully that'll all go up to 5 weekly as well. If they keep expanding at CWL i could really see them 5 weekly at least on all those routes and hope for a 4/5 weekly FCO, 2 weekly FLR and a 3 weekly IBZ eventually. Also i would wonder if they would look at the French tourists and maybe do a 3 weekly ORY? That maybe pushing it a bit though!

 

[superking]

I'd be very surprised (but very happy) if Vueling set up a base at CWL but the with flights already on sale for next year (4 weekly BCN, 4 weekly PMI, 4 weekly AGP and 4 weekly ALC) they do enough flights to occupy a based plane. Hopefully that'll all go up to 5 weekly as well. If they keep expanding at CWL i could really see them 5 weekly at least on all those routes and hope for a 4/5 weekly FCO, 2 weekly FLR and a 3 weekly IBZ eventually. Also i would wonder if they would look at the French tourists and maybe do a 3 weekly ORY? That maybe pushing it a bit though!

the routes you quoted is enough for 1 aircraft. to open a base with the cost of that,it has to be at least a 2 aircraft base,also each aircraft doing at least 2 to3 rotations per day and every day,unless there is a longer rotation in there. that is why flybe has 2 aircraft.1 aiurcraft does not work very well.any route will work with bums on seats,but end od day it has to be the revenue that the bums make.
it sounds what I say is negative,but airlines there to make money not charities.would like to see some airline set up base in cwl,but it takes a lot of working at it, and getting pax on all flights.

 

[Jerry]

the routes you quoted is enough for 1 aircraft. to open a base with the cost of that,it has to be at least a 2 aircraft base,also each aircraft doing at least 2 to3 rotations per day and every day,unless there is a longer rotation in there. that is why flybe has 2 aircraft.1 aiurcraft does not work very well.any route will work with bums on seats,but end od day it has to be the revenue that the bums make.
it sounds what I say is negative,but airlines there to make money not charities.would like to see some airline set up base in cwl,but it takes a lot of working at it, and getting pax on all flights.

It would depend on what destinations Vueling were to put in but an A319 and an A320 base would probably work but Italy would have to be added and Greece and the Canary Islands and maybe a few European cities as well and they might have to reduce the base in the winter.
The problem i can see for CWL getting airlines to base there is that any airline could turn and say pay us to base there. They paid Flybe £5 million for a 10 year base so the likes of Vueling, Ryanair, Jet2, Monarch or Norwegian could demand the same or more especially as the fund was quoted in the BBC news as 13.5 million so there is possibly a lot of money leftover. CWL may have to pay in the end to get the likes of Vueling to base there.

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats May 2016

Alicante 3x weekly total of 13 flights in the month with a monthly total of 5937.
The average load is 228 with a load factor of 122.5%.

Barcelona 3x weekly total 13 flights in the month with a monthly total of 3295.
The average load is 126 with a load factor of 67.7%.

Malaga 4x weekly total 17 flights in the month with a monthly total of 5339.
The average load is 157 with a load factor of 84.4%.

Palma de Mallorca 2x weekly total of 9 flights in the month with a monthly total of 3667.
The average load is 203 with a load factor of 109.1%.
During May Vueling did a total of 52 flights to CWL carrying a total of 18,238 passengers with an average load of 175 with a load factor of 94%.

I also suspect there might have been more Alicante and Palma de Mallorca flights that may have been put on after the 2016 Summer timetable was published because as far i know only A320 have been used on those routes.

 

[Tinkerman]

Jerry i appreciate your enthusiasm mate, but i must wonder of your educational level here ?

If a plane has an LF of 122.5%, how exactly is this achieved i beg to wonder ? People on the wings ? I thought not.

Firstly i believe ALC was 4x weekly throughout May. Secondly, the maximum possible achievable load factor for any plane currently known to man is 100% ...

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats May 2016

You alluded to more rotations being added. This was the frequency in May.

Alicante was 4 x weekly: Tu, W, Th, Sa, 17 rotations (34 legs) giving average load of 174.6, load factor 97%.

Malaga same frequency on same days as ALC with average load of 157 (as you say) which I make a load factor of 87.2%.

Palma was 3 x weekly: Tu, Th, Sa, 13 rotations (26 legs) giving average load of 141 with a load factor of 78.3%.

Barcelona was 3 x weekly (as you say): Su, W, F with average load 126.7 (same as yours without the decimal point) which I make a load factor of 70.4%.

With grateful acknowledgement to South Wales Aviation Group boards, it seems that all the flights operated in May on A320 aircraft which I have assumed all had 180 passenger seats.

 

[Tinkerman]

That's better Local !

And they are truly great stats at that too. VY will be well happy with those for May i imagine.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

That's better Local !

And they are truly great stats at that too. VY will be well happy with those for May i imagine.

They are excellent figures.

Interesting to contemplate where they've all come from. CWL want to recover as many travellers as they can who use other airports, notably BRS. However, all four destinations at BRS in May are showing double digit percentage gains themselves.

So are many of the CWL passengers people who have been 'recovered' from BRS, in which case the BRS gains will be largely attributable to their obtaining the increased passenger numbers from other than South Wales, or are the CWL gains predominantly a result of a large reservoir of local people flying who would not have otherwise done so at all?

We shall never know but in different ways either scenario could be viewed as very positive for CWL.

At both airports, as well as at most others across the UK, the Spanish routes are up significantly following the drastic cutbacks to the likes of Egypt, Tunisia and to a lesser extent Turkey, but because that is nationwide it might be reasonably assumed that the effect is proportionate across all airports.

 

[Jerry]

Jerry i appreciate your enthusiasm mate, but i must wonder of your educational level here ?

If a plane has an LF of 122.5%, how exactly is this achieved i beg to wonder ? People on the wings ? I thought not.

Firstly i believe ALC was 4x weekly throughout May. Secondly, the maximum possible achievable load factor for any plane currently known to man is 100% ...

CAA stats May 2016

You alluded to more rotations being added. This was the frequency in May.

Alicante was 4 x weekly: Tu, W, Th, Sa, 17 rotations (34 legs) giving average load of 174.6, load factor 97%.

Malaga same frequency on same days as ALC with average load of 157 (as you say) which I make a load factor of 87.2%.

Palma was 3 x weekly: Tu, Th, Sa, 13 rotations (26 legs) giving average load of 141 with a load factor of 78.3%.

Barcelona was 3 x weekly (as you say): Su, W, F with average load 126.7 (same as yours without the decimal point) which I make a load factor of 70.4%.

With grateful acknowledgement to South Wales Aviation Group boards, it seems that all the flights operated in May on A320 aircraft which I have assumed all had 180 passenger seats.

B in Maths GCSE just to let you know Tinkerman! Though i will admit Maths was never my strong point! And like i explained in the post i suspected there could've been more flights or bigger aircraft used but couldn't find the information! I'll look on SWAG next time as that didn't occur to me.

TheLocalYokel they are good figures overall PMI with Thomson and Thomas Cook went up by 99% compared on last year so it just shows how much the terrorist attacks possibly have boosted Spanish tourism.
I used 186 seats as Vueling seem to have 3 seat configurations 172 180 and 186 on A320's.
Hopefully the Barcelona route will get stronger through the summer though 70% is a good start and would be interesting to know how many are catching connecting flights to other destinations! Hopefully these figures will mean S17 will see 5x weekly on each of these routes!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

This does prove again what we've known all along: there is a strong summer sun market at CWL. Certainly seems scope for increasing rotations, provided Vueling has its pricing right with the loads they are carrying at the moment. I can't think that they haven't.

 

[Jerry]

June CAA Stats 2016 Will base percentages on 186 seater aircraft.
ALC 6493 180 average per flight LF 96%
BCN 5097 150 average per flight LF 80%
AGP 6291 174 average per flight LF 93%
PMI 5179 144 average per flight LF 77%

 

[TheLocalYokel]

ALC and AGP are always winners in terms of loads at CWL especially in summer and - as we've said before - there is scope for increases either by Vueling or by someone competing.

 

[Jerry]

Wonder if Vueling will respond to the Ryanair Faro route with a new destination of their own?