Vueling

[CraigW92]

I'll be hugely dissapointed if VY don't add anything into this, especially as the consolidation has been a few years now, still plenty of time however for things to be added. Although I'd saying nothing is and FR don't add anything either then CWL is s bit stumped in terms of growth

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Yes, plenty of time for the programme to be enhanced for next summer. Vueling has done this in the past at CWL - increasing rotations on the originally announced schedule of routes.

 

[Jerry]

I'll be hugely dissapointed if VY don't add anything into this, especially as the consolidation has been a few years now, still plenty of time however for things to be added. Although I'd saying nothing is and FR don't add anything either then CWL is s bit stumped in terms of growth

I think they'll add a few more flights IF a Spanish team or 2 gets to the Champions league final. I was really hoping for Rome or maybe Gran Canaria unless they now something we don't. I do think if they stay at 4 a weekly for all their routes then maybe it opens a door for another airline because I honestly think Alicante Malaga and Palma could go daily. and Barcelona 5 weekly. It may be though that Vueling don't have the aircraft to increase it to 5 weekly on all their routes they do out of Cardiff. Hopefully there'll be more news to come along.

 

[Ray Finkle]

With the amount of connections offered you would have thought that BCN would be in line to go daily, or 6x weekly at least.

ALC, PMI and AGP are probably about right at 4x weekly, an increase to daily over the peak school holiday period could work.

TFS is a new Vueling base so you would have thought that 2x weekly flights could work, possibly 3/4 weekly throughout the winter. I would have thought that Rome could be a good shout, maybe 2/3 weekly over the summer at first to gauge demand? Amsterdam and/or Paris may also be worth a try, although they would face competition?

 

[Jerry]

With the amount of connections offered you would have thought that BCN would be in line to go daily, or 6x weekly at least.

ALC, PMI and AGP are probably about right at 4x weekly, an increase to daily over the peak school holiday period could work.

TFS is a new Vueling base so you would have thought that 2x weekly flights could work, possibly 3/4 weekly throughout the winter. I would have thought that Rome could be a good shout, maybe 2/3 weekly over the summer at first to gauge demand? Amsterdam and/or Paris may also be worth a try, although they would face competition?

For BCN to effectively become a new hub route i think would require roughly a 09.00 or 10.00 departure. Personally i think for CWL 2 based aircraft 1 A320 for the longer sun routes and 1 A319 for the more city routes could work. Rome Barcelona Amsterdam could be done 5 to daily also Zurich a couple of times a week. Amsterdam could do with a midday or 13.00 departure from a low cost airline as KLM can be expensive sometimes and Paris could be doing with being twice daily. Though all of these routes could be covered by non based aircraft of course. I do wonder if Vueling do base aircraft at CWL they would probably want monetary help from the Welsh government. Plus i think if Vueling don't increase the flight rotations then they could open the way for competition if other airlines are potentially interested in CWL.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Interesting thoughts. Paris 2 x daily with Vueling? easyJet only goes once daily to CDG from BRS, although it's true that bmi regional has now come on the route at 2 x daily but their fares are expensive.

I agree that if people get used to using BCN as a connecting airport then daily wouldn't be put of the question and Rome seems everyone's favourite to be the next route in terms of wishes. I'm not sure about Zurich though. Helvetic was a disaster despite a huge publicity drive when the route started. I know Helvetic fares weren't what people think of as low-cost airline fares but is the demand there for a circa 150-seat aircraft even at a couple of times a week?

I still think that the most likely source of real passenger growth is a substantial increase in the sun routes, especially in summer. It's CWL's traditional strength and I still cannot understand why airlines haven't filled their boots; at least in peak summer and it needn't necessarily be a based airline although I do understand that most airlines are heavily committed with regular routes elsewhere at that time of year. bmi baby went daily to the Costas in summer and loads were fine even against the charters, and Thomson had a big presence on those routes at one time, 4/5 days a week on each at one stage.

Even as airport owner the WAG is still subject to EU state aid rules as long as the UK remains in the EU. After that? Depends on what competition legislation the UK government puts in place.

Four years ago on another website I compared CWL's passenger figures in 2012 with those in 2007. CWL has obviously improved since 2012 but the figures give a feel of what the airport was doing in 2007 (its best ever year to date with just over 2 mppa). The 2007 figures are on the left with 2012 in brackets on the right.

I've not had time to do all of 2015's but the Costas bear out my assertion that there is much more scope for increases there: Palma 170K in 2007/78K in 2015; Alicante 160K/78K; Malaga 150K/68K. Amsterdam is also worth a look with 225K in 2007 and 129K in 2015.

Amsterdam 225,444 (111,960)

Palma 169,781 (59,535)

Alicante 160,733 (34,745)

Edinburgh 158,142 (77,719)

Malaga 150,056 (18,964)

Belfast Int 93,543 (nil)

Glasgow 76,948 (39,828)

Faro 73,760 (8,335)

Tenerife 71,075 (51,031)

Dublin 67,758 (63,496)

Arrecife 57,925 (34,369)

Dalaman 55,493 (42,692)

Ibiza 43,644 (25,920)

Paris Cdg 37,638 (30,023)

Las Palmas 37,125 (23,057)

Jersey 34,544 (9,097)

Paphos 33,333 (22,803)

Murcia 30,228 (nil)

Reus 27,141 (15,397)

Heraklion 23,685 (14,467)

Bodrum 23,546 (15,129)

Cork 23,328 (nil)

Barcelona 23,183 (16,287)

Rhodes 22,137 (18,443)

Mahon 22,049 (15,195)

Burgas 21,679 (12,692)

Zakynthos 21,588 (16,607)

Larnaca 19,670 (17,750)

Sanford 17,774 (4,469)

Fuerteventura 17,706 (19,132)

Corfu 16,578 (11,498)

Prague 16,544 (nil)

Newcastle 16,110 (14,336)

Belfast City 12,147 (38,412)

Monastir 12,000 (687)

Sharm-el-Sheik 10,886 (28,083)

Funchal 9,843 (nil)

Toronto 9,318 (nil)

Valley 8,553 (5,529)

Malta 8,441 (7,322)

Kefalonia 8,069 (7,633)

Cancun 7,633 (nil)

Geneva 7,457 (nil)

Kos 6,964 (11,010)

Manchester 6,719 (nil)

Galway 6,140 (nil)

Girona 6,120 (nil)

Verona 5,630 (nil)

Chambery 4,506 (nil)

Newquay 4,345 (nil)

Innsbruck 4,030 (nil)

Vancouver 3,642 (nil)

Antalya 2,946 (20,389)

Plovdiv 2,588 (nil)

Nantes 1,744 (nil)

Enfidha nil (21,665)

Aberdeen nil (14,068)

Zurich nil (3,743)

 

[CraigW92]

With the amount of connections offered you would have thought that BCN would be in line to go daily, or 6x weekly at least.

ALC, PMI and AGP are probably about right at 4x weekly, an increase to daily over the peak school holiday period could work.

TFS is a new Vueling base so you would have thought that 2x weekly flights could work, possibly 3/4 weekly throughout the winter. I would have thought that Rome could be a good shout, maybe 2/3 weekly over the summer at first to gauge demand? Amsterdam and/or Paris may also be worth a try, although they would face competition?

Vueling would have taken the TFS route if FR weren't already on it in my view, however it is worth noting at the time when CWl were chasing new routes it was said that mid haul routes were not in the Vueling business plan, hence the rejection of a potential TFS route then, clearly things have changed now though, the sense is that an IBZ and a FCO route would be good additions into the portfolio, IBZ not just being to VY but also an opportunity for other airlines as you've pointed out for sun routes which when you look are significantly undeserved, Id like to see Kl add the 4th daily rotation for AMS, looking at the figures I would have thought this wouldnt be far away.

As for Zurich as local has pointed out was a disaster, on a separate note if you look at the VY base at Zurich, The destinations bar the exception of one or two would all work in the summer months:
Alicante, Barcelona, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, Lisbon, London-Luton, Málaga, Porto, Rome-Fiumicino, Tenerife South
Seasonal: Ibiza, Santiago de Compostela

ALC, AGP and BCN are already offered, If frequencies were increased on these routes as well as PMI add in also, FCO, IBZ, ACE,MJV then it starts to look interesting, also worth noting that a base isn't exactly necessary for certain routes, although it would need aircraft availability from other bases. As for Paris, id like to see BE have time to grow on the route, I think the Embraer is a perfect size aircraft for most of the city routes,

I still think that the most likely source of real passenger growth is a substantial increase in the sun routes, especially in summer. It's CWL's traditional strength and I still cannot understand why airlines haven't filled their boots; at least in peak summer and it needn't necessarily be a based airline although I do understand that most airlines are heavily committed with regular routes elsewhere at that time of year. bmi baby went daily to the Costas in summer and loads were fine even against the charters, and Thomson had a big presence on those routes at one time, 4/5 days a week on each at one stage.

I agree completely with you on this Local, I think most people have been waiting for years for someone to come and just take a chunk of these sun routes that realistically sell themselves and will always do very well, perhaps next summer we might see a few routes taken by a current operator or even a new operator, the two charter companies really need a kick up the backside in terms of some competition, this is where i would have liked to see Jet2, perhaps a new operator will see the other two will some new rejuvenating energy in terms of some new destinations.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Thanks for the figures, from those it's clear to see that there is definitely scope for more on the sun routes. I don't know if the information is freely available but it would be interesting to see how many passengers from the South Wales area travel to Bristol to fly, especially those on routes already offered by CWL.

Vueling look to be the obvious solution, they could do very well basing a single A320, with some away based flights mixed in. The concern I would have is that they have grown pretty quickly elsewhere (MAN, EDI, BHX, LTN) whilst Cardiff has remained fairly static. Hopefully their focus hasn't shifted elsewhere?

I notice that Ryanair only have one route out of Cardiff, with 80 odd bases across Europe there has to be potential there? They operate with fairly close bases elsewhere, GLA/EDI, MAN/LPL, BHX/EMA, is there enough of a demand across the region as a whole for a CWL base without affecting BRS too heavily?

If the numbers are there then Norwegian could offer away based flights from AGP, ALC, BCN, LPA, TFS, PMI and even MAD? They are looking to increase their UK presence.

 

[Jerry]

Interesting thoughts. Paris 2 x daily with Vueling? easyJet only goes once daily to CDG from BRS, although it's true that bmi regional has now come on the route at 2 x daily but their fares are expensive.

I agree that if people get used to using BCN as a connecting airport then daily wouldn't be put of the question and Rome seems everyone's favourite to be the next route in terms of wishes. I'm not sure about Zurich though. Helvetic was a disaster despite a huge publicity drive when the route started. I know Helvetic fares weren't what people think of as low-cost airline fares but is the demand there for a circa 150-seat aircraft even at a couple of times a week?

I still think that the most likely source of real passenger growth is a substantial increase in the sun routes, especially in summer. It's CWL's traditional strength and I still cannot understand why airlines haven't filled their boots; at least in peak summer and it needn't necessarily be a based airline although I do understand that most airlines are heavily committed with regular routes elsewhere at that time of year. bmi baby went daily to the Costas in summer and loads were fine even against the charters, and Thomson had a big presence on those routes at one time, 4/5 days a week on each at one stage.

Even as airport owner the WAG is still subject to EU state aid rules as long as the UK remains in the EU. After that? Depends on what competition legislation the UK government puts in place.

Four years ago on another website I compared CWL's passenger figures in 2012 with those in 2007. CWL has obviously improved since 2012 but the figures give a feel of what the airport was doing in 2007 (its best ever year to date with just over 2 mppa). The 2007 figures are on the left with 2012 in brackets on the right.

I've not had time to do all of 2015's but the Costas bear out my assertion that there is much more scope for increases there: Palma 170K in 2007/78K in 2015; Alicante 160K/78K; Malaga 150K/68K. Amsterdam is also worth a look with 225K in 2007 and 129K in 2015.

Amsterdam 225,444 (111,960)

Palma 169,781 (59,535)

Alicante 160,733 (34,745)

Edinburgh 158,142 (77,719)

Malaga 150,056 (18,964)

Belfast Int 93,543 (nil)

Glasgow 76,948 (39,828)

Faro 73,760 (8,335)

Tenerife 71,075 (51,031)

Dublin 67,758 (63,496)

Arrecife 57,925 (34,369)

Dalaman 55,493 (42,692)

Ibiza 43,644 (25,920)

Paris Cdg 37,638 (30,023)

Las Palmas 37,125 (23,057)

Jersey 34,544 (9,097)

Paphos 33,333 (22,803)

Murcia 30,228 (nil)

Reus 27,141 (15,397)

Heraklion 23,685 (14,467)

Bodrum 23,546 (15,129)

Cork 23,328 (nil)

Barcelona 23,183 (16,287)

Rhodes 22,137 (18,443)

Mahon 22,049 (15,195)

Burgas 21,679 (12,692)

Zakynthos 21,588 (16,607)

Larnaca 19,670 (17,750)

Sanford 17,774 (4,469)

Fuerteventura 17,706 (19,132)

Corfu 16,578 (11,498)

Prague 16,544 (nil)

Newcastle 16,110 (14,336)

Belfast City 12,147 (38,412)

Monastir 12,000 (687)

Sharm-el-Sheik 10,886 (28,083)

Funchal 9,843 (nil)

Toronto 9,318 (nil)

Valley 8,553 (5,529)

Malta 8,441 (7,322)

Kefalonia 8,069 (7,633)

Cancun 7,633 (nil)

Geneva 7,457 (nil)

Kos 6,964 (11,010)

Manchester 6,719 (nil)

Galway 6,140 (nil)

Girona 6,120 (nil)

Verona 5,630 (nil)

Chambery 4,506 (nil)

Newquay 4,345 (nil)

Innsbruck 4,030 (nil)

Vancouver 3,642 (nil)

Antalya 2,946 (20,389)

Plovdiv 2,588 (nil)

Nantes 1,744 (nil)

Enfidha nil (21,665)

Aberdeen nil (14,068)

Zurich nil (3,743)

With Paris i meant total not just with Vueling i didn't explain it properly. Flybe would be better because they have codeshare with Air France. Zurich maybe a once a week route. I'll admit as may enthuiasm for aviation is new i didn't know Helvetic had done the route before.
I do wonder how the airport/WAG are able to pay/help Flybe for basing aircraft if like you said that could be against EU rules? I also wonder if other airlines are saying we won't base there unless we get the same help?
Those figures do show how much of a downturn the airport took and i wonder if CWL would be over 3.5 million pax if that hadn't happened. And thanks for those figures.

 

[Jerry]

Vueling would have taken the TFS route if FR weren't already on it in my view, however it is worth noting at the time when CWl were chasing new routes it was said that mid haul routes were not in the Vueling business plan, hence the rejection of a potential TFS route then, clearly things have changed now though, the sense is that an IBZ and a FCO route would be good additions into the portfolio, IBZ not just being to VY but also an opportunity for other airlines as you've pointed out for sun routes which when you look are significantly undeserved, Id like to see Kl add the 4th daily rotation for AMS, looking at the figures I would have thought this wouldnt be far away.

As for Zurich as local has pointed out was a disaster, on a separate note if you look at the VY base at Zurich, The destinations bar the exception of one or two would all work in the summer months:
Alicante, Barcelona, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, Lisbon, London-Luton, Málaga, Porto, Rome-Fiumicino, Tenerife South
Seasonal: Ibiza, Santiago de Compostela

ALC, AGP and BCN are already offered, If frequencies were increased on these routes as well as PMI add in also, FCO, IBZ, ACE,MJV then it starts to look interesting, also worth noting that a base isn't exactly necessary for certain routes, although it would need aircraft availability from other bases. As for Paris, id like to see BE have time to grow on the route, I think the Embraer is a perfect size aircraft for most of the city routes,

I still think that the most likely source of real passenger growth is a substantial increase in the sun routes, especially in summer. It's CWL's traditional strength and I still cannot understand why airlines haven't filled their boots; at least in peak summer and it needn't necessarily be a based airline although I do understand that most airlines are heavily committed with regular routes elsewhere at that time of year. bmi baby went daily to the Costas in summer and loads were fine even against the charters, and Thomson had a big presence on those routes at one time, 4/5 days a week on each at one stage.

I agree completely with you on this Local, I think most people have been waiting for years for someone to come and just take a chunk of these sun routes that realistically sell themselves and will always do very well, perhaps next summer we might see a few routes taken by a current operator or even a new operator, the two charter companies really need a kick up the backside in terms of some competition, this is where i would have liked to see Jet2, perhaps a new operator will see the other two will some new rejuvenating energy in terms of some new destinations.

I could realistically see ALC AGP PMI all daily BCN daily but on a A319. FCO 4 to 5 weekly with maybe extra during the Six nations. IBZ 3 weekly in the summer and TFS twice weekly maybe 4 if FR pulled off the route and also FLR twice weekly. I would also wonder if Madrid Seville Bilbao and La Coruna would work maybe on a weekly or twice basis? I do think that an airline like Vueling if they put their minds to it to dominate the scheduled sun routes from CWL. Makes we wonder why if they don't think CWL is worth the effort and are thinking of bigger fish and i don't just mean Vueling but Ryanair as well.

 

[Jerry]

Thanks for the figures, from those it's clear to see that there is definitely scope for more on the sun routes. I don't know if the information is freely available but it would be interesting to see how many passengers from the South Wales area travel to Bristol to fly, especially those on routes already offered by CWL.

Vueling look to be the obvious solution, they could do very well basing a single A320, with some away based flights mixed in. The concern I would have is that they have grown pretty quickly elsewhere (MAN, EDI, BHX, LTN) whilst Cardiff has remained fairly static. Hopefully their focus hasn't shifted elsewhere?

I notice that Ryanair only have one route out of Cardiff, with 80 odd bases across Europe there has to be potential there? They operate with fairly close bases elsewhere, GLA/EDI, MAN/LPL, BHX/EMA, is there enough of a demand across the region as a whole for a CWL base without affecting BRS too heavily?

If the numbers are there then Norwegian could offer away based flights from AGP, ALC, BCN, LPA, TFS, PMI and even MAD? They are looking to increase their UK presence.

Why Ryanair hasn't increased it's offerings is a mystery. I think Bristol attracts 1 to 1.5 million welsh passengers a year but i'm not 100% on that number. Only thing about Norwegian is that they aren't well known in this area but would be good to see them flying routes from CWL.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Thanks for the figures, from those it's clear to see that there is definitely scope for more on the sun routes. I don't know if the information is freely available but it would be interesting to see how many passengers from the South Wales area travel to Bristol to fly, especially those on routes already offered by CWL.......................

Having been following the fortunes of the aviation scene in South West Britain for the past 40 years, more from an economic perspective than a purely 'interest in aircraft' one (until my late 20s I had little interest in aviation other than as a means of getting from A to B), I've watched the respective fortunes of the two main airports move in largely divergent directions.

Until the mid 1980s CWL was generally regarded as the more important although annual passenger numbers had been broadly similar at both in the preceding quarter of a century. BRS was owned by Bristol City Council and was a loss-making drain on the rate payers' purse. There were serious calls for its closure. At the beginning of the 80s a man called Les Wilson was appointed MD. He was a visionary, a showman (an early proponent of the sound bite) and a 'can do' (in American parlance) person. Almost single handedly he began to turn around the airport's fortunes. Sadly, he was killed in a car crash in 1995 before the real fruits of his labour became visible.

With the onset of the low cost revolution BRS burgeoned although it had passed through the 2 mppa barrier in 2000 with the only lo-co being Ryanair to Dublin, which also operated that route then at CWL.

The hugely successful Bristol region economy fed the airport both with business and leisure traffic. Its central location - vis-a-vis South Wales, the further South West, western part of the M4 Corridor and even parts of the South Midlands - enabled it to draw from those areas as well as from its immediate Greater Bristol region which consistently provides round 50% of BRS's passenger traffic. Its Tom Thumb size and other physical difficulties and challenging final surface miles to reach it were but minor distractions as it grew at twice the percentage rate of the UK average during the early years of this century.

In the meantime CWL had managed to attract bmi baby as its low cost based operator. It did well for a few years but never progressed beyond three based aircraft and when the recession began to bite, together with the obvious lack of interest in their airport of the then owners, CWL began to head south very steeply. South Wales is a much less affluent region than the West Country around Bristol and the propensity for South Wales people to fly is one of the lowest in the UK.

All this meant that BRS's relative much greater economy of scale saw airlines concentrating their presence at Lulsgate rather than at Rhoose.

The latest CAA passenger survey for BRS and CWL is for 2012 which shows 1.1 million people originating or terminating in South Wales used BRS that year which was around 18% of the airport's total. This was more than used CWL in entirety in 2012 with only 30,000 (3% of CWL's total) coming from South West England.

The previous CAA survey was in 2008 at the height of CWL's fortunes when it was handling around 2 mppa. Even then nearly 800,000 'Welsh' passenger used BRS, although the reverse direction was better then with 105,000 from the South West using CWL.

Put simply those routes such as summer sun are well supported at CWL as they at BRS. Many other routes though need topping up from outside the core catchment and as BRS has the bigger and more prosperous core catchment, plus proximity to a number of outer catchments that I mentioned earlier, airlines realise that less topping up is required at BRS than at CWL. Because of this BRS has many more routes and higher frequencies and often better fares for the punter that in themselves will attract people from South Wales who might otherwise have flown from CWL.

Vueling would have taken the TFS route if FR weren't already on it in my view, however it is worth noting at the time when CWl were chasing new routes it was said that mid haul routes were not in the Vueling business plan, hence the rejection of a potential TFS route then, clearly things have changed now though, the sense is that an IBZ and a FCO route would be good additions into the portfolio, IBZ not just being to VY but also an opportunity for other airlines as you've pointed out for sun routes which when you look are significantly undeserved, Id like to see Kl add the 4th daily rotation for AMS, looking at the figures I would have thought this wouldnt be far away.

As for Zurich as local has pointed out was a disaster, on a separate note if you look at the VY base at Zurich, The destinations bar the exception of one or two would all work in the summer months:
Alicante, Barcelona, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, Lisbon, London-Luton, Málaga, Porto, Rome-Fiumicino, Tenerife South
Seasonal: Ibiza, Santiago de Compostela

ALC, AGP and BCN are already offered, If frequencies were increased on these routes as well as PMI add in also, FCO, IBZ, ACE,MJV then it starts to look interesting, also worth noting that a base isn't exactly necessary for certain routes, although it would need aircraft availability from other bases. As for Paris, id like to see BE have time to grow on the route, I think the Embraer is a perfect size aircraft for most of the city routes,

I still think that the most likely source of real passenger growth is a substantial increase in the sun routes, especially in summer. It's CWL's traditional strength and I still cannot understand why airlines haven't filled their boots; at least in peak summer and it needn't necessarily be a based airline although I do understand that most airlines are heavily committed with regular routes elsewhere at that time of year. bmi baby went daily to the Costas in summer and loads were fine even against the charters, and Thomson had a big presence on those routes at one time, 4/5 days a week on each at one stage.

I agree completely with you on this Local, I think most people have been waiting for years for someone to come and just take a chunk of these sun routes that realistically sell themselves and will always do very well, perhaps next summer we might see a few routes taken by a current operator or even a new operator, the two charter companies really need a kick up the backside in terms of some competition, this is where i would have liked to see Jet2, perhaps a new operator will see the other two will some new rejuvenating energy in terms of some new destinations.

There is no doubt there is a reservoir of passengers waiting to use their local airport at CWL, especially on those sun routes. Interestingly, when new routes start or are increased in frequency at CWL they rarely result in a corresponding drop in passenger numbers at BRS which suggests that many of them are 'new' passengers who otherwise might not have flown at all.

With Paris i meant total not just with Vueling i didn't explain it properly. Flybe would be better because they have codeshare with Air France. Zurich maybe a once a week route. I'll admit as may enthuiasm for aviation is new i didn't know Helvetic had done the route before.
I do wonder how the airport/WAG are able to pay/help Flybe for basing aircraft if like you said that could be against EU rules? I also wonder if other airlines are saying we won't base there unless we get the same help?
Those figures do show how much of a downturn the airport took and i wonder if CWL would be over 3.5 million pax if that hadn't happened. And thanks for those figures.

The WAG as an owner can certainly use its money to incentivise carriers and help with such things as advertising. There is little doubt, no doubt actually, that this is what happened with Flybe. What a state owner cannot do is use its dominant position spending public money to pay an airline to operate in a way that a private airport owner would find untenable. Sometimes there is a grey area between the two and creative accounting can help to mask some things. However, you can be sure that competing airports are watching the WAG like a hawk to ensure it does not abuse its position as a state owner.

Clearly the recession struck at a time when CWL was enjoying great success with passenger numbers rising at a continuing and very good rate. CWL was hit harder than most and the recession was just one of the contributory factors. Without the recession CWL would not have suffered as greatly as it did and its recovery would likely be further along the line. What its current annual total would be is anyone's guess but it's likely in my view that it would be above the 2 mppa from where the big fall began.

I could realistically see ALC AGP PMI all daily BCN daily but on a A319. FCO 4 to 5 weekly with maybe extra during the Six nations. IBZ 3 weekly in the summer and TFS twice weekly maybe 4 if FR pulled off the route and also FLR twice weekly. I would also wonder if Madrid Seville Bilbao and La Coruna would work maybe on a weekly or twice basis? I do think that an airline like Vueling if they put their minds to it to dominate the scheduled sun routes from CWL. Makes we wonder why if they don't think CWL is worth the effort and are thinking of bigger fish and i don't just mean Vueling but Ryanair as well.

The sun routes certainly but I'm not sure about Bilbao, Seville or La Coruna. easyJet restarted BRS-BIO last year after nearly a decade off the route. Passenger figures were reasonable (monthly load factors in 80-90% range) but it was pulled in the winter after originally being advertised as year-round; it was re-started this summer but later than the previous year. Ryanair tried Seville from BRS for a couple of summers but even with the Airbus connection it did not satisfy Ryanair although monthly load factors were again in the 80-90% range in the main summer months. Madrid? Possibly.

 

[Jerry]

I remembered an article done on Wales Online and it said that the WAG had loaned the money to Cardiff airport so i'm guessing technically Flybe are being paid by the airport. I also wonder if Vueling don't expand their frequencies and another carrier doesn't come in if Flybe might be tempted to try Spanish routes from CWL. Personally i'd prefer it to be Vueling or another airline. That article also suggested that the WAG should setup a welsh national airline as well as owning the airport!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Yes, absolutely right. The WAG loaned the money for route development (said to be £13 million over three years) to its own arm's length airport company at commercial rates.

Setting up an airline is a huge capital expense and airlines are voracious users of operators' cash, especially in the early years. So many start-up airlines either haven't made it to the runway or, if they have, not lasted very long that it would be a huge gamble with public money. It's much better to attract existing airlines.

Flybe might be a bit concerned that if they did set up some Spanish sun routes an airline such as Vueling or Ryanair might come in on the routes, in Vueling's case with an expansion of existing sun routes. Ryanair/Vueling are probably better suited to such routes not least because in general they would be likely to charge lower fares than Flybe and tempt most of the punters. Flybe are operating Faro though and it's very similar to a Spanish Costa route.

 

[Jerry]

It looks like Vueling will be doing flights to Paris Orly on the 17/3/2017 and 19/3/2017 for the Six Nations as Wales will be away to France. They could also be doing flights to CDG on the same dates but it comes up as PAR on the drop down. Also FCO for the Italy game on the 4/2/2017 and 6/2/2017. Looks like Vueling are copying Ryanair and cashing in on the Six Nations which is great news! The flights are not bookable yet.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Didn't Vueling and Ryanair do something similar last season? I think that Aer Lingus Regional is also making a return for the Six Nations Ireland match.

Addendum 1930 hours 29.7.16

Sorry Jerry. I've just read the CWL Aer Lingus thread and see that you've already commented on Aer Lingus Regional's 6-Nations arrangements.

 

[Jerry]

Didn't Vueling and Ryanair do something similar last season? I think that Aer Lingus Regional is also making a return for the Six Nations Ireland match.

Addendum 1930 hours 29.7.16

Sorry Jerry. I've just read the CWL Aer Lingus thread and see that you've already commented on Aer Lingus Regional's 6-Nations arrangements.

No I don't think they did I think this is the first time they've done it (i might be wrong). Air France did do a couple of flights for the French fans. I'm pretty sure one was on a 777 and there might have been some charter flights from Rome but I don't remember any Italian airlines.
Ryanair and Aer Lingus do it every year. Think one of flights got diverted to MAN this year because of high winds. I think the airport is hoping for at least 1 Spanish team to make the Champions League final!

 

[CraigW92]

There is no doubt there is a reservoir of passengers waiting to use their local airport at CWL, especially on those sun routes. Interestingly, when new routes start or are increased in frequency at CWL they rarely result in a corresponding drop in passenger numbers at BRS which suggests that many of them are 'new' passengers who otherwise might not have flown at all.

Oh absolutely, CWL will always have a successful summer, it's outside this period where challenges lie, not just for us here but also other airports too. As much as CWL will gain new passengers and also passengers back from BRS and surrounding areas, there will always be leakage back due to the fact of routes unavailable , frequencies and also price factors.

Thanks for the figures, from those it's clear to see that there is definitely scope for more on the sun routes. I don't know if the information is freely available but it would be interesting to see how many passengers from the South Wales area travel to Bristol to fly, especially those on routes already offered by CWL.

Vueling look to be the obvious solution, they could do very well basing a single A320, with some away based flights mixed in. The concern I would have is that they have grown pretty quickly elsewhere (MAN, EDI, BHX, LTN) whilst Cardiff has remained fairly static. Hopefully their focus hasn't shifted elsewhere?

I notice that Ryanair only have one route out of Cardiff, with 80 odd bases across Europe there has to be potential there? They operate with fairly close bases elsewhere, GLA/EDI, MAN/LPL, BHX/EMA, is there enough of a demand across the region as a whole for a CWL base without affecting BRS too heavily?

If the numbers are there then Norwegian could offer away based flights from AGP, ALC, BCN, LPA, TFS, PMI and even MAD? They are looking to increase their UK presence.

I think the hope is that we will see something from FR OR VY next year, my hope would have been FCO or IBZ with VY or ACE or IBZ with FR. There is a host of summer sun routes , that reman unserved and a majority that remain underserved, I remember when FR returned the hope was that the TFS route would be a springboard for more routes, apart from a increase from 1 to 2 X weekly commencing this summer this has yet to be seen and also a rather long consolidation on current VY routes( while frequencies have been increased ) it hasn't as of yet led to any new opportunities.

It is a good point you make there Ray, a base isn't in the sense required for future flights if Vuelings other bases continue growing there will be opportunities, same in the regards to FR in the sense that they have plenty of bases where routes that would work could be operated from. Of course I'm sure the management will be working there socks off in trying to get additional routes from both operators and hopefully something positive comes along.

I suppose the big question is now mind with FR is how much Brexit will affect future expansion, without a doubt there is demand for a seasonal base from a CWL point of view, although while competition can drive down prices will be interesting to see what affect it would have on VY and there future plans, I'm always cautious when it comes to FR, I wouldn't like to see any plans that would potentially see VY reduce or even leave p, think that would be a disaster for the airport, the VY product is one of a very good level ( barring this summers problems)

I actually thought that any MAD route would be operated by Iberia express, seem to have done a fair bit of expanding in the last few years, The core sun routes which I class as the big 3 will appeal to any new operator, it's trying to get routes such as ACE and LPA as you pointed there which remain unserved from a scheduled point of view, it shall be interesting to see what develops over the coming months. As well as the potential status of Cobalts LCA to CWL route which is still due to be announced at some point.

 

[Jerry]

Oh absolutely, CWL will always have a successful summer, it's outside this period where challenges lie, not just for us here but also other airports too. As much as CWL will gain new passengers and also passengers back from BRS and surrounding areas, there will always be leakage back due to the fact of routes unavailable , frequencies and also price factors.



I think the hope is that we will see something from FR OR VY next year, my hope would have been FCO or IBZ with VY or ACE or IBZ with FR. There is a host of summer sun routes , that reman unserved and a majority that remain underserved, I remember when FR returned the hope was that the TFS route would be a springboard for more routes, apart from a increase from 1 to 2 X weekly commencing this summer this has yet to be seen and also a rather long consolidation on current VY routes( while frequencies have been increased ) it hasn't as of yet led to any new opportunities.

It is a good point you make there Ray, a base isn't in the sense required for future flights if Vuelings other bases continue growing there will be opportunities, same in the regards to FR in the sense that they have plenty of bases where routes that would work could be operated from. Of course I'm sure the management will be working there socks off in trying to get additional routes from both operators and hopefully something positive comes along.

I suppose the big question is now mind with FR is how much Brexit will affect future expansion, without a doubt there is demand for a seasonal base from a CWL point of view, although while competition can drive down prices will be interesting to see what affect it would have on VY and there future plans, I'm always cautious when it comes to FR, I wouldn't like to see any plans that would potentially see VY reduce or even leave p, think that would be a disaster for the airport, the VY product is one of a very good level ( barring this summers problems)

I actually thought that any MAD route would be operated by Iberia express, seem to have done a fair bit of expanding in the last few years, The core sun routes which I class as the big 3 will appeal to any new operator, it's trying to get routes such as ACE and LPA as you pointed there which remain unserved from a scheduled point of view, it shall be interesting to see what develops over the coming months. As well as the potential status of Cobalts LCA to CWL route which is still due to be announced at some point.

I do wonder if with FR that the TFS route may have been to fill in a gap in the flight schedule of an aircraft based at TFS and also give a warning to BRS but we will see. Also i wonder if Vueling will just consolidate for next year and maybe we'll see a new route in S18 but you never know they may surprise us!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I do wonder if with FR that the TFS route may have been to fill in a gap in the flight schedule of an aircraft based at TFS and also give a warning to BRS but we will see. Also i wonder if Vueling will just consolidate for next year and maybe we'll see a new route in S18 but you never know they may surprise us!

There was certainly a thought by some at the time that Ryanair announced its CWL-TFS route that it might have been partly a reminder to BRS that it isn't the only airport in the area, although in truth I can't think that the main reason for starting the route was other than a purely a commercial one.

BRS had dug in its heels with Ryanair a year or two before the CWL route started by refusing to bow to Ryanair's demands over overnight parking and peak hour charges. The result was that Ryanair reduced the BRS base from five aircraft to two aircraft for the summer of 2013. However, they didn't reduce the number of flights. They actually increased them slightly over summer 2012 by using aircraft from many of their other bases. In some ways it benefited BRS because it evened out the daily peaks and troughs a bit.

Interestingly, Ryanair made no public comment about this as they usually do when they fall out with an airport, with concomitant threats to reduce the number of flights which will act as a brake on the local economy etc.

Since then the base has steadily and quietly returned to the five aircraft.