HS2 losers -Aberdeen, Bristol, Cardiff, Leeds and....

[TheLocalYokel]

A freedom of information request has revealed that when the government published its KPMG report in support of HS2 with predictions of a £15 billion annual boost to the economy, part of the report was suppressed as it inconveniently (for the proponents of HS2 which include the government) listed a substantial number of areas that would be worse off with economic output and GDP falling.

Some significant cities are amongst those named including Aberdeen, Bristol and Cardiff. Other areas that would see a decline include Dundee and Angus, and parts of Suffolk, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire. In all more than 50 areas would be adversely affected.

It's probably not surprising that those areas left out of HS2 would not see any benefits or that a government would present only those figures that support its own case, even when in possession of figures from the same source that suggest that other areas would not just stand still but would retract.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24589652

 

[Aviador]

I live in Leeds and I don't share the positive views of others about HS2. I fear the cost of the project with outweigh the benefits if it is ever built. With a commute of less than an hour from Leeds to central London there is no guarantee HS2 wont cause brain drain leading to company's relocating to the capital because they can rely on cheaper labour costs from northern commuters. Similar can be said about shopping, why go to the Victoria Quarter in Leeds when you can be on Knightsbridge in under an hour?

 

[Aviador]

I notice the new Boris Island airport proposal is estimated at a cost of £47.3bn to build. That's a shocking figure and around the same cost as the HS2 proposal. It makes me actually think the Boris Island is actually more value for money than HS2 despite still being completely against both projects. At least many more millions of people would use and benefit from Boris Island compared with HS2.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I heard the BBC's chief political reporter (Norman Smith? - it wasn't the political editor Nick Robinson) say this afternoon that he's getting vibes that MPs across the board are beginning to turn against HS2 because they believe a huge amount of money is needed to put the railways we already have in much better shape following the major problems thrown up by the floods.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I notice the new Boris Island airport proposal is estimated at a cost of £47.3bn to build. That's a shocking figure and around the same cost as the HS2 proposal. It makes me actually think the Boris Island is actually more value for money than HS2 despite still being completely against both projects. At least many more millions of people would use and benefit from Boris Island compared with HS2.

Interesting conundrum - Boris Island. If the Cameron government doesn't plump for a third runway at LHR and loses the EU vote (not that I'm suggesting the two are connected in any way) Boris might well be in a position to take over the leadership of the Conservative Party which might mean Boris Island is back in the 'for serious consideration' stakes.

HS2 is always going to be political pawn. I'd never bet any money on it and in the South West it's of no relevance to us apart from the suggestion that our economy might be weakened. There always seems to be talk of a North-South divide yet some of the poorest parts of England are in the rural areas of the South West. If there is a divide it's the Greater London area and the rest of the country.

We haven't even got electrified railways down here and the one that is being built is years behind schedule and massively over budget and even that will go no further south west than Bristol.

 

[Brum X]

And what about Liverpool, a major city in the "Northern Powerhouse" not having a direct connection to HS2. That just does not make sense.

 

[Aviador]

I think a lot of people just want a faster railway and they support HS2 for the sake of it. Here in Leeds we went through planning for a supertram metro but the then Labour government canned it. Leeds City Council has since put together new plans for a Trolly bus and the Conservative government has just canned that idea leaving Leeds with no credible alternative.

Personally I think HS2 is a waste of money and I think it will drain talent away from the the regions to London.

I would like to see more regional transport projects to get the country moving again. Every major city could have a decent metro system with the money HS2 is expected to cost.

 

[Brum X]

I understand your concern about talent draining down to London, however London is just too expensive for most people now, what will it be like in another 10 years ???

Hopefully people will think what they can get in Brum and other cities for half of what they would pay in London and seriously consider moving to the Midlands/North.

You can get a lovely 3 bed semi with a drive and a garden for the price of a studio flat/garage in London. What is there to think about Londoners ??????

 

[TheLocalYokel]

You can get a lovely 3 bed semi with a drive and a garden for the price of a studio flat/garage in London. What is there to think about Londoners ??????

The 2011 Census showed that nearly 37% of Londoners were born outside the UK. I doubt that they are all mega rich Russian billionaires so it does seem that London still has some sort of pull to some people, with I guess the majority of those who have come in from abroad not being particularly well off.

I still enjoy the occasional visit to the capital - I shall be there again in a couple of weeks - but I no longer have any desire to reside there. London has never been my home although I've spent periods there in the past.

 

[Carl W]

Brum X ,, I do believe that initial proposals for hs2 do include lines to carry on to both Liverpool and Wigan but only at normal speeds,,, however the direct link is planned in.

 

[Carl W]

View attachment 3309 View attachment 3310 A couple of images showing how hs2 might link Wigan and Liverpool into the high speed route,, same train but not high speed till it joins mainline from Manchester.

 

[Ashley.S.]

Honestly, I think money assigned for HS2 should be reassigned to work on the Great Western Railway. For example, in 2014 the main line was washed away at Dawlish so a secondary line needs to be looked at if storms continually get worse. Also, services are sporadic on the main line through Cornwall where you can sometimes get 2 in an hour or wind up waiting 2+ hrs for one. Highly annoying if you wish to travel around and miss a connection...

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Honestly, I think money assigned for HS2 should be reassigned to work on the Great Western Railway. For example, in 2014 the main line was washed away at Dawlish so a secondary line needs to be looked at if storms continually get worse. Also, services are sporadic on the main line through Cornwall where you can sometimes get 2 in an hour or wind up waiting 2+ hrs for one. Highly annoying if you wish to travel around and miss a connection...

There is little doubt that Devon and Cornwall, especially those parts south west of Exeter, have a very raw deal when it comes to public transport. There is no motorway beyond Exeter and the railway line between Exeter and Plymouth, although very spectacular running as it does along the sea shore and through the cliff tunnels before skirting the lower slopes of Dartmoor's extremities, was never designed for fast running and as we know too well is susceptible to serious flooding from the sea.

Plymouth, the largest city, now has no airport and all this impacts even more so if anything on Cornwall which is at the end of the rail and road 'lines'. Cornwall's only saving grace is the continuing resurgence of Newquay Airport.

And of course the limited rail structure that is in place is not electrified and there is no hint of when it might even be considered for such power.

 

[Ashley.S.]

Last I heard @TheLocalYokel , electrification was going no further than Bristol but I think a more recent report didn't even support that! After electrification, if it ever happens, I think it worked out that journey times between London & Penzance would only be around 10 minutes faster than it currently is, which is hardly anything...

I really do hope the PM can deliver his promise of a more reliable train service in Cornwall, Devon and the rest of the South West though I wouldn't hold my breath if they think the South West ends in Gloucestershire & Wiltshire!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The electrification is

Last I heard @TheLocalYokel , electrification was going no further than Bristol but I think a more recent report didn't even support that! After electrification, if it ever happens, I think it worked out that journey times between London & Penzance would only be around 10 minutes faster than it currently is, which is hardly anything...

I really do hope the PM can deliver his promise of a more reliable train service in Cornwall, Devon and the rest of the South West though I wouldn't hold my breath if they think the South West ends in Gloucestershire & Wiltshire!

The GWR main line is currently being prepared for electrification between Paddington, Bristol and South Wales. There have been lengthy closures for the line to be lowered through tunnels and under bridges and the Severn Tunnel is to be closed for six weeks in early autumn for this purpose. The project is several years behind time though and over budget and at present is expected to open in stages between 2018 and 2020.

I read the Devon and Cornwall newspapers online from time to time and am fully aware of the immense disquiet of many in the Peninsula at what they see as a disproportionate amount of 'South West' money and initiatives being channelled into the counties of Gloucestershire, Bristol, Wiltshire and the northern part of Somerset.

One of the main advantages of electrification of the GWR main line is the ability to accommodate more trains within a given length and time period because of the electric trains much greater acceleration capability. The Bristol-Paddington line is one of the most overcrowded in the country.

I'm not holding my breath either about politicians' promises. You probably know that prior to WW2 the GWR (the real GWR not the one that First Group now calls itself) was at an advantaged planning stage for an inland relief line for the South Devon coastal section. It would have entailed considerable civil engineering with a lengthy tunnel but would have removed the ever present flooding scenario nightmare and would have speeded up the passage of trains between Plymouth and Exeter.

The chances of something like that being announced aren't great.

 

[Ashley.S.]

I'm aware of another line that somewhat exists over Dartmoor at Okehampton, I believe it is mostly a freight and heritage line now but it appears to be the most viable option as an alternative. Funding issues are apparantly stopping it from happening though

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I'm aware of another line that somewhat exists over Dartmoor at Okehampton, I believe it is mostly a freight and heritage line now but it appears to be the most viable option as an alternative. Funding issues are apparantly stopping it from happening though

That's the old London and South Western Railway line (became part of the Southern Railway at the 1923 Railway Grouping) that ran from London Waterloo via Salisbury to Exeter Central and thence via Okehampton to Plymouth. It is one of the many victims of the 1960s Beeching Report that led to so many of our railway lines being closed.

The current line via Dawlish was originally the Great Western line from London Paddington via either Bristol or Castle Cary to Exeter St Davids and on to Plymouth. This led to a situation at Exeter St Davids where Plymouth trains in adjacent platforms faced opposing directions.

The Okehampton line wasn't laid out for fast running either but at least it's not likely to suffer flooding from the sea. As you say part of it is still open but I don't know how feasible it would be to re-open its entire length between Plymouth and Exeter.

 

[Ashley.S.]

Interesting. I believe out of the three options presented the Okehampton one was better suited because of some of the infrastructure already being there where as the other two would require a lot of work to get started. Like I said though, I can't see anything happening for an alternative line because it would cost too much

 

[Silvercity]

I live in Leeds and I don't share the positive views of others about HS2. I fear the cost of the project with outweigh the benefits if it is ever built. With a commute of less than an hour from Leeds to central London there is no guarantee HS2 wont cause brain drain leading to company's relocating to the capital because they can rely on cheaper labour costs from northern commuters. Similar can be said about shopping, why go to the Victoria Quarter in Leeds when you can be on Knightsbridge in under an hour?

I do not favour HS2 either, from Runcorn I can be in Euston in 2 hours....that's fast enough. What I would prefer to see is cities across the north linked up by fast electric trains and all the norths airports have rail links.

 

[Coathanger16]

Adding to this discussion a view from the other side - I am largely in favor of HS2. Whilst yes I am from near B'ham (B'ham Int is a 15 minute drive from me) current journey times to London are quick enough and in the coming years I am likely to relocate South for work anyway. So why am I in favor of HS2?

Firstly it is an investment being made in infrastructure most of which is outside of London & the SE. New or expanded stations will be built in Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Crewe and in the East Midlands. In Birmingham alone there are now plans for a new development zone around the HS2 station near the airport. Similar projects will likely occur around the other HS2 stations. Yes this money could be spent on other projects in the 'regions', but given governments record of doing that its amazing they've even committed to this.

Whilst its true there is generally enough capacity and speed on intercity trains, HS2 won't only improve those services. Looking at the Birmingham to London section, once phase 1 opens I believe the plan is to switch the majority of Virgin Trains services over to HS2 (Virgin will have to bid for rights to operate). This will open up new 'slots' on the WCML for new services into London and Birmingham allowing for more trains for commuters into those cities. The same will happen for Northern cities when the second phase opens. Additionally in Birmingham's case, as HS2 will be served by a new station, New Street Station will have more capacity for passengers and new rail services. Virgin's rolling stock will also be incompatible with HS2 so may be relocated to other parts of the UK rail network to replace older trains.

The only part of HS2 which bugs me is the cost. Not exactly how much it will cost, but how much more expensive it will be to build than European counterparts. Why the difference? The cost to build such a length of line in Germany (£34m/mi) would be just over £11bn. HS2 is costing around £400m/mi, and if that was the standard globally for high speed rail so be it, but other countries have shown it can be done for less.

Regardless of whether or not HS2 is built, investment should nevertheless be made in the SW and the regions to better interconnect them. Going at it by themselves, Newquay, Exeter, Plymouth and the rest of the SW will struggle. But better connect them and they'd stand a decent chance.

Sorry if that was a bit long - a few points to discuss.