Ryanair

[Jerry]

Something else that may also be in the back of the the airports minds is that Flybe's future is uncertain even if it survives as a company. So the airport may want to encourage Ryanair at the airport so as not too have another BMI baby situation.

 

[superking]

Jerry be carefull what you wish for. I would like to see it continue as it is now. It will be a case of wait and see if any thing happens.

 

[Sean123]

There's no denying their brand awareness can only help cwl in their battle to convince the south Wales & west public that there is another Severnside option, but slow steady growth will do for me

 

[Jerry]

Jerry be carefull what you wish for. I would like to see it continue as it is now. It will be a case of wait and see if any thing happens.

What i wish for is a large Ryanair presence coexisting with a large Flybe presence operating out of a shiny new terminal with it's own international concourse for KLM 737s, Qatar A350s, Delta A330s and Virgin Atlantic A350s! So if that wish comes true I'll be well happy!
Being more serious. Having a daily Ryanair movement next year is a good achievement for the airport. Hopefully there will be some sort of growth plan where Ryaniar will incrementally grow there routes over the next couple of years until it's 2 daily movements at least and their winter operations is a daily movement as well.

 

[Sean123]

You forgot a 4 tail jet2 base on your wish list jerry !!

 

[Jerry]

You forgot a 4 tail jet2 base on your wish list jerry !!

I didn't want to appear too greedy!

 

[aviatorconcorde]

I agree with DUB - the Ryanair affect would fill the aircraft even if Flybe stayed. Flybe would perhaps lose out but in all it would be a net gain in pax for CWL.

A know a few people from work (Cardiff city centre) who travel to Bristol to fly to Dublin as flybe are too expensive or flight times don’t suit.

One thing that would be lost if flybe were forced off the route is the onward connections from DUB.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Aerlad makes a valid and realistic point about Ryanair and Flybe. The airport would have to decide how they want to grow passenger numbers and with whom. Jerry mentions a balance which is absolutely the best scenario from CWL’s perspective but an equal balance, say between Ryanair and Flybe, might not be easy to achieve.

If Ryanair wanted serious growth at CWL they'd be looking at a programme that suits them and they certainly would not worry about the effect on other airlines, any more than other airlines would worry about competitors' health.

Flybe has been the catalyst for the regeneration of CWL it is true but the airline's management is not altruistic or a benefactor. They had pulled most of their CWL routes saying they were uneconomic. CityJet then stepped in to replace some of the discarded Flybe routes only to find that within a year or so CWL and Flybe had got back into bed together and CityJet found itself the jilted suitor - there is an irony in the CityJet CEO of the time making her feelings known about the rebuff later taking over the same post at Flybe.

The Flybe return didn't mean that their CWL routes had suddenly become profitable overnight. It's no secret that the Welsh Government through its airport company provided a huge amount of money to support the Flybe routes when the airline came back (Jerry alluded to this in an earlier post today). What we don't know is how sustainable they would be without such support and what will happen when the support ends.

Ryanair would generate considerable more footfall than Flybe on a route by route basis because their aircraft are much larger and their load factors considerably higher than Flybe's, although frequency might suffer on some routes. The likes of Ryanair usually pay very low airport charges but promise increased footfall in return. As an illustration of a smaller regional airport's income breakdown and the importance of its non-aviation revenue streams, the latest figures I can find for Bristol Airport are those for 2016 when that airport's near £90 million turnover that year consisted primarily of £34 million aeronautical income, £27 million car parking revenue and £26 million concession revenue.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I've just had a look at FR vs BE fares to DUB for an outbound on Monday 19th Nov and returning Friday 23rd Nov.
Cheapest BE is approx. £60 and FR £10. On many days in Nov, FR are offering £10 flights BRS-DUB.
IF FR were to ever operate the route, I can't see it ever being more than once a day. If timed right (Afternoon), then it could be that BE can still make money on it. DUB has grown slightly, but has also more recently seen less capacity with the E75. So even with 3 flights a day including FR, it would still be less seats than 2x daily FR's but offering more choice. I think FR starting DUB from CWL would pretty much be competing with themselves at BRS.
On the same dates EI are offering a return for £60, with 3x daily on the Monday and 4x daily on the Friday. I would imagine that EI's and BE's prices are usually comparable, so unless it's more reliable connection times, I can't see many of EI's BRS-DUB only passengers being from South Wales.

Looking at BE's route map, aside from maybe Milan and Venice, I really can't see FR offering any route from CWL that BE currently operates to. If FR were hell bent on offering DUB as part of starting more routes from CWL, it may be a sacrifice CWL would need to make in p*ss*ng off BE in order to gain more routes. Again, if FR were to operate to BGY and VCE from CWL, that will likely affect their BRS-BGY/VCE flights as well.
On that basis, and on my own personal opinion, I see no reason why BE and FR couldn't both operate happily alongside each other.
FR and VY might be a different story. FR could kill of VY, or there could actually be enough demand for both to operate alongside each other. I know a lot of people who still use BRS primarily for popular Spanish destinations, and predominately book EZY over FR. If the option of FR and cheap prices was available, I think it would hurt EZY more than VY. VY have a good following now in South Wales and there's certainly potential for growth on their current routes but they don't seem to want to take it.

As TLY alludes to. There's no friends in business. If CWL wants to grow it needs to be aggressive in attracting Airlines provided it can be done for the long term benefit, rather than focusing on one Airlines that could up and leave at any time. BE are not in a position to throw their toys out of the pram and leave if FR are brought in, and will hold on to routes that are profitable for them. Given the recent press, they need all the profitable routes they can get. They may just have to tweak things a little to fit in better.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Looking at BE's route map, aside from maybe Milan and Venice, I really can't see FR offering any route from CWL that BE currently operates to. If FR were hell bent on offering DUB as part of starting more routes from CWL, it may be a sacrifice CWL would need to make in p*ss*ng off BE in order to gain more routes. Again, if FR were to operate to BGY and VCE from CWL, that will likely affect their BRS-BGY/VCE flights as well.

Ryanair doesn't seem too bothered about the possibiity of diluting their BRS routes, or at least some of them. TFS, ALC and FAO have operated from CWL and NQY for a few years now (not all at both airports), and from next year Malta will operate from CWL and EXT (and from BOH), with Ryanair maintaining its BRS frequency of many years of 3 x weekly. There is at least one Ryanair flight each day except Mondays next summer to Malta from the combined routes from BRS, CWL, EXT and BOH. Perhaps they hope to pick up passengers at CWL and EXT who would otherwise have used the Air Malta/TUI and Thomas Cook flights from BRS, although the latter two tend to be inclusive tour passengers.

The same applies with Venice Marco Polo when it comes to taking passengers from another airline. A few years ago Ryanair switched their BRS flights from Treviso to compete with easyJet at Marco Polo. easyJet will be between 3 x weekly and daily this winter to VCE (depending on month) and daily next summer until the end of June when the schedule drops to 6 x weekly for July and August. Ryanair will be 5 x weekly through the coming winter and through next summer. I thought this apparent overkill would have been thinned out by now but it continues as it has done for a couple of years, so Ryanair might judge they could capture some easyJet passengers if they flew to VCE from CWL in the absence of Flybe.

Milan is surely underserved from Severnside. MXP has the modest Flybe offering from CWL and the tiny flybmi service from BRS, which I'm not even sure will operate this winter. Ryanair operates from BRS to Bergamo (its version of Milan) year-round at just 3 x weekly.

 

[Marko1]

I think you need to be careful wishing for ryanair to come in in force. Not only will it be bye bye Vueling but also likely Flybe on its various international routes. Ryanair promises lots but rarely delivers ( promised 10 aircraft at bhx and promised to be bigger than easyJet at Bristol are just two examples ). Cardiff would be better letting them develop new untouched routes that don't overlap with their routes from Bristol and there are plenty of opportunities like Prague for example.

 

[Jerry]

It depends on the routes they operate of course and the frequencies. At the moment 3 of the routes are 2 weekly and 1 is 1 weekly. It also makes sense for the airport to have routes over several different carrier's rather than just rely on 1 or 2.

 

[louis_walton]

I think FR won't step on toes straight away. I think they will build up there reputation at Cardiff with Mediterranean routes and eastern European routes and once they are sucessful with these bring out there very large toes and push VY away. However VY have gained very loyal customers from CWL so for Ryanair to push Vueling might never happen! Also Ryanair aren't using rockbottom prices like they do at other bases there actually quiet high for FR prices!

 

[louis_walton]

I think you need to be careful wishing for ryanair to come in in force. Not only will it be bye bye Vueling but also likely Flybe on its various international routes. Ryanair promises lots but rarely delivers ( promised 10 aircraft at bhx and promised to be bigger than easyJet at Bristol are just two examples ). Cardiff would be better letting them develop new untouched routes that don't overlap with their routes from Bristol and there are plenty of opportunities like Prague for example.

They have already done this at Southend! Also FR building a larger presence at CWL could be a spiteful move towards BRS who don't have much room for FR to expand (because of limited stands). Im not expecting FR to transfer everything to have at BRS to suddenly come CWL's way but certain routes could begin to fly into CWL's direction if BRS can't keep up with Ryanairs expansion rate.

 

[Marko1]

Ryanair have had plenty of opportunity to expand at Bristol and also at Birmingham and for some reason have chosen not to take it.

 

[louis_walton]

Ryanair have had plenty of opportunity to expand at Bristol and also at Birmingham and for some reason have chosen not to take it.

BHX has seen a large expansion from Jet2 as well as TUI having a very large presence. BRS is tricky as Easyjet and Ryanair have to battle it out and they are both very similar but EZY always seems to stay on top. Maybe FR are fed up off this?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BHX has seen a large expansion from Jet2 as well as TUI having a very large presence. BRS is tricky as Easyjet and Ryanair have to battle it out and they are both very similar but EZY always seems to stay on top. Maybe FR are fed up off this?

Ryanair have not expanded much at BRS in summer since the base opened eleven years ago. Winter is different with substantial expansion; winter has increased by 64% in three years to 90 rotations per week ths winter. easyJet continues to expand in both summer and winter. TUI and TCX have been in significant expansion mode at BRS in recent years too.

Ryanair's venture into other South West Britain airports in recent years (CWL and NQY with EXT added next summer, and BOH seeing increases) is a change in strategy although at the moment it's still a modest step. The next couple of years should tell us how far they intend to develop the move into these other airports.

 

[Jerry]

With Flybe's future looking not so good at the moment. Should the airport now be looking to Ryanair and try and get them to base and take over what Flybe offers from Cardiff?

 

[Marko1]

I doubt they would fly the Scottish Northern Ireland or Paris routes though .

 

[Sean123]

Do they have a base in Belfast?