Ryanair

[Severn]

Weekly flights in August to FAO with RYR from the South-West:
August 2016:

BRS: 12
CWL: 0
NQY: 0​

August 2017:

BRS: 10 (-2)
CWL: 2 (+2)
NQY: 2 (+2)
​

As you can see from the above, RYR have reduced the number of weekly flights to FAO from BRS this year by 2pw and increased at CWL by 2pw, therefore shifting the capacity over the bridge.
This might also have something to do with EZY at BRS increasing their weekly flights to FAO in August 2017 to 16pw up from 15pw in August 2016.

 

[Jerry]

Could be possible they might look at doing the same with a few other routes in the future.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Weekly flights in August to FAO with RYR from the South-West:
August 2016:

BRS: 12
CWL: 0
NQY: 0​

August 2017:

BRS: 10 (-2)
CWL: 2 (+2)
NQY: 2 (+2)
​

As you can see from the above, RYR have reduced the number of weekly flights to FAO from BRS this year by 2pw and increased at CWL by 2pw, therefore shifting the capacity over the bridge.
This might also have something to do with EZY at BRS increasing their weekly flights to FAO in August 2017 to 16pw up from 15pw in August 2016.

It's only in August where BRS has dropped two Faro rotations each week compared with summer 2016. Last summer (May to September) Faro was single daily every month except July when it was 8 weekly and August which has been discussed.

This summer Faro will be daily every summer month apart from August.

In August BRS has 131 weekly rotations against 132 in August last year, but there are two routes this summer (31 against 29). The rest of the summer months sees marginal increases over 2016 except June which like August is marginally down.

Perhaps it's a win win. CWL and NQY get access to Faro and BRS gets two new routes partly at the expense of Faro which possibly was slightly over provided in peak summer last year.

 

[superking]

I read on the fr forum on dried plum that FAO is to be a non based airport for them this winter.Looks like a w pattern for the CWL rotation. Another way could be to position an aircraft in.Are we sure the FAO rotation is still going ahead.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Currently Faro is bookable until the end of October this year.

 

[Jerry]

Sounds like it'll only be a summer route then. Can't see them w patterning it as I doubt it would be worth it. Faro isn't the busiest of routes in the winter though FR would get bigger loads than Flybe would they be big enough?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Sounds like it'll only be a summer route then. Can't see them w patterning it as I doubt it would be worth it. Faro isn't the busiest of routes in the winter though FR would get bigger loads than Flybe would they be big enough?

Ryanair would certainly get bigger loads than Flybe which has struggled a bit at times on its Faro route from CWL in winter. I would think Ryanair in winter to Faro would spell the end of Flybe in winter to Faro.

Would the loads be big enough in terms of yield to satisfy Ryanair? I really don't know. If the WG thought the route was worth supporting that could make a difference but would the WG really splash out on a winter route to Faro? It wouldn't increase airport footfall to support airport ancillary revenue streams by that much, wouldn't create any new jobs and wouldn't add anything to the Welsh economy. It would support the Portuguese tourism industry to a small degree.

They might though if it formed part of a bigger Ryanair operation at the airport.

 

[Jerry]

I would think Ryanair in winter to Faro would spell the end of Flybe in winter to Faro

Maybe that wouldn't be a bad thing? I believe in the winter neither TCX or TOM support the route. If they only operated it in the summer then they could open up another winter route especially if it was supported by a tour operator. They could put Geneva to 3 weekly or Innsbruck for Skiing or Prague or Krakow for xmas markets or even Iceland for Northern Lights they could even then codeshare with Icelandair for transatlantic connections?
I think if WG were going to splash out money on Ryanair then it would be to get them to base aircraft and open up a route network but for it to be beneficial to Welsh business i'd have thought Eastern European city routes would have to be included in the routes operated by any potential base.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I really can't see money being splashed out on an FR sun route. Maybe they've been given a good deal, that's all part of the negotiations with the Airport, not the WG. BE are having the cash splashed on the aircraft. I can't see CWL haven't too much say on the route structure.
Whenever routes are discussed, I always compare with BRS. FR operate FAO 3x weekly from BRS during the winter. I'm sure the demand isn't there during the winter months and it's probably Welsh passengers that top up the BRS flights. I don't think there would be sufficient Welsh demand from CWL. BE need to go back to 2x weekly next winter.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I take the point about the WG and the airport but the former are the owners and the paymasters, albeit through an arm's length airport company, although the professional airport officers obviously have responsibility for running the airport, including negotiations with airlines.

easyJet also operates BRS-FAO in winter from 4 x weekly up to daily, depending on month.

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair stats February 2017.
Tenerife South 2482 average pax 155 LF 82%

 

[Tinkerman]

Rather surprisingly FAO seems to be holding up with both operators even at this time which isn't Easter and isn't technically Summer, around 75% LF's on BE and FR in the 90's. Todays CWL-FAO is practically full.

 

[Jerry]

That's good news! Be still have their TOM and TCX passengers to be added from May. It does look like at the moment that FR are attracting new passengers to the route rather than taking BE's.

 

[Tinkerman]

That's good news! Be still have their TOM and TCX passengers to be added from May. It does look like at the moment that FR are attracting new passengers to the route rather than taking BE's.

Exactly my thought, these passengers must have came from somewhere, so i'm assuming BE and FR are attracting passengers back from BRS FAO services. I haven't seen anyone moaning about the lack of a decently priced FAO service for sometime now, and that used to be common place.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

By no means a scientific survey and it's done just over a weekend through seat selector pages which are not entirely accurate by any means, but looking at this weekend from Bristol to Faro Ryanair seems to have diluted its own customer base at BRS but not easyJet's which it might have hoped to have done.

easyJet flies from Bristol to Faro 16 x weekly (double daily with a third flight on Saturdays and Tuesdays). Ryanair flies one rotation each day of the week.

Friday the first easyJet flight of the day is no longer bookable owing to time constraints but the second is shown as sold out. Ryanair's flight is no longer bookable owing to time constraints.

Saturday easyJet's three flights are respectively showing 92%, 92% and 88% (the first is a 180-seat A320, the other two 156-seat A319s). Ryanair is showing 81%

Sunday easyJet is currently showing 86% and 81% on its two flights (both A319) but there are two days to go. Ryanair is showing 65%.

How many people who might have used Ryanair from Bristol on Saturday or Sunday used Ryanair from Cardiff today is obviously difficult to assess even by the airline unless they conduct a survey.

Ryanair's new Newquay-Faro flights (on Tuesdays and Saturdays) might also have taken some BRS passengers (Devon and Cornwall provides nearly as many BRS passengers overall as does South Wales) although NQY doesn't appear to be faring as well as CWL with tomorrows NQY-FAO showing a 68% load factor at present.

Having said all this, new routes/new carriers at an airport do generate passengers that might not otherwise have flown at all.

Since Vueling began operating from CWL to BCN, ALC, AGP and PMI from 2012/2013 the total number of passengers from BRS on these routes each year has risen from (respectively): 136K to 152K; 244K to 313K; 275K to 337K; 257K to 340K. Vueling has been doing very well for the most part from CWL which shows that although it's probably attracted some passengers back to CWL who might have flown from somewhere else there must still be a substantial nucleus of people who would not have flown at all had there not been a service from their local airport. By local I mean an airport close to the place of origin of their journey or final destination.

If Ryanair does notice a drop in numbers (and crucially a reduction in yield) on its BRS-FAO route and ascribes it to its new CWL and NQY routes it will be in something of a dilemma. If it reduces its BRS offering it risks a real danger of handing some of its 'local' (as opposed to those from South Wales and Cornwall) BRS passengers to easyJet because it's unlikely that many would trot off to CWL or NQY just to fly with Ryanair if there was a service on their doorstep albeit with another airline.

This will be one to watch. It's a pity that the CAA is now months behind with its stats.

 

[Tinkerman]

You raise an interesting precedent there TLY. And it will definitely need a watchful eye throughout the Summer, same goes for Iberia Express's MAD service which appears to be doing well based on the fares they're charging, with plenty of inbound Spaniards, and more than likely taking some EZY passengers from BRS.

It is an awful shame that the CAA stats are now so far behind. But also as you say TLY, it raises an interesting precedent on what FR do if they are adversely affecting their BRS operations in this way throughout the Summer. I do knkw that FAO is and always has been an incredibly popular route from CWL and reasons are there to suggest that FR would now be operating ALC, AGP and PMI if VY was not there to do so.

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair seems to have diluted its own customer base at BRS but not easyJet's which it might have hoped to have done.

I suppose that is always the risk and dilemna they face and not just them but TCX and TOM to an extent. Does anyone know when Ryanair release summer 18? Because if they add new routes and continue/increase FAO then that will give an indication if FR are happy to continue at CWL with routes they fly at BRS. And if they do slightly reduce at BRS it could mean they may look at opening up some new routes. What Ryanair will do over the next couple of years at CWL will be interesting to see.

 

[superking]

There was talk a while back that fr shutting the fao base and just operating flights into fao.Im wondering how cwl will get on with that or if the fao base is still shutting.

 

[Jerry]

There was talk a while back that fr shutting the fao base and just operating flights into fao.Im wondering how cwl will get on with that or if the fao base is still shutting.

I think they shut it in the winter.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I suppose that is always the risk and dilemna they face and not just them but TCX and TOM to an extent. Does anyone know when Ryanair release summer 18? Because if they add new routes and continue/increase FAO then that will give an indication if FR are happy to continue at CWL with routes they fly at BRS. And if they do slightly reduce at BRS it could mean they may look at opening up some new routes. What Ryanair will do over the next couple of years at CWL will be interesting to see.

The summer schedule is usually released around the previous October. It's often incomplete though and additions appear over the next few months.