Ryanair

[TheLocalYokel]

I've just checked the Ryanair BRS-FAO seat selector for tomorrow again and 91% of the seats are now taken (up from 81% this morning). Sunday's flight is now 74% (up from 65% this morning) and no doubt will be higher again later tomorrow.

easyJet's three flights BRS-FAO tomorrow are also showing an increase of seats taken, viz: 96%, 93%, 97%.

Tomorrow's Ryanair NQY-FAO is now showing 77% (up from 68% this morning).

This was always going to be a snapshot and nothing more. It now seems that BRS has not been much affected (if at all) this weekend on FAO by the new CWL and NQY flights. This suggests strongly that although CWL may well have 'recaptured' some passengers from other airports on FAO most of the passengers are 'new' which is a positive sign as it points to a reservoir of untapped local punters waiting for a local service (punters who are local in origin or destination).

It's a pity that when the CAA does get around to publishing stats it won't be possible for us to split the BRS loads between easyJet and Ryanair. At least the overall route totals will be available.

 

[Jerry]

It now seems that BRS has not been much affected (if at all) this weekend on FAO by the new CWL and NQY flights.

Which is kind of good for both. As it might encourage FR to expand more at both airports without the fear they are going to effect their BRS operation.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Which is kind of good for both. As it might encourage FR to expand more at both airports without the fear they are going to effect their BRS operation.

Certainly on this tiny snapshot it appears that loads have not been affected but Ryanair has a track record of axing routes that have enjoyed consistent very high load factors so we probably have to be a little cautious.

Incidentally, although the seat selectors are not a completely reliable guide (but people outside the airlines only have this measure to see if people are at least flying routes with of course no inkling of the important thing, the yield), out of interest I checked the Ryanair seat selector again this morning immediately before the booking engine closed (six hours before the flight) to find that BRS-FAO today only had five empty seats showing (which is over 97% taken).

So with the seat selector if we want any sort of guide, at least with Ryanair, it's necessary to leave the check as late as possible. BRS-FAO went from 81% to 97% in the last 24 hours before the flight.

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair have added Madrid flights to Cardiff for the Champions league final.
Friday 2nd June MAD-CWL 11.20-12.20 CWL-MAD 12.45-15.45
Monday 5th June MAD-CWL 17.15-18.15 CWL-MAD 18.40-21.40

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair stats for March 2017
Tenerife South 2365 average pax 148 LF 78%
Faro see Flybe thread
Dublin see Flybe thread

 

[Jerry]

And if anyone is looking for a cheap weekend away. Ryanair flights to Madrid on the 2nd June with return on the 5th June are £39.98 at the moment!

 

[Severn]

Summary of RYR Routes - Summer 2017

I've compared a week in August 2017 to the same week in 2016 of Ryanair's CWL schedule

Number of routes operating per week:
2016: 1
2017: 2 (+1)

Number of flights per week:
2016: 1
2017: 3 (+2)


Weekly Frequencies: (a '[+]' or '[-]' represents change from 2016)

2x Weekly
Faro (FAO) [NEW] [+2]

1x Weekly
Tenerife (TFS)

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair Stats April 2017
Tenerife South 1434 average pax 179 LF 95%
Faro 5197 shared with Flybe but it is 100% up from 2016

 

[Jerry]

I seen a post on the LBA thread asking about Ryanair for summer 2018 and when it goes on sale so it got me wondering with the new relationship between FR and CWL now if we could expect another route for next summer?
Malaga was mentioned on the NQY thread as a possible route for them from there. If they do launch AGP to NQY then maybe they'll do AGP-CWL as well?

 

[Tinkerman]

Not sure Jerry.

Don't really see much FR growth ahead given the MOL hyperbole.

Then again, you never know he usually goes against what he says.

 

[Severn]

In Summer 2017, Ryanair serves;
ALC & FAO from 16 UK airports, (FAO - already served x2 weekly by RYR from CWL)
AGP & TFS from 14 UK airports, (TFS - already served x1 weekly by RYR from CWL)
GRO & ACE from 13 UK airports,
LPA & DUB from 12 UK airports,
PMI, MLA & WMI from 11 UK airports.

Given the information above, it would seem ALC & AGP would top of the list as next to be served from CWL. However both are served by Vueling. Ryanair and CWL might not want competition on these routes as this would drive prices down and minimise possible revenue. Same probably applies to DUB & PMI

This leaves GRO, ACE, LPA, MLA & WMI. All of these are served by RYR from BRS, and are not as popular destinations as ALC, AGP, PMI & DUB which might hinder the possibilities of these routes also being started from CWL.

Ryanair has 13 bases in the UK, and serves another six UK airports that are not bases, CWL, ABZ, NQY, LDY, NCL & LGW. This shows where they serve from these non-base UK airports:
CWL has 3 departures per week - FAO (2x weekly) & TFS (1x weekly)
ABZ has 6 departures per week - 2x weekly to AGP, ALC & FAO
NQY has 6 departures per week - 2x weekly to ALC, FAO & HHN
LDY only sees 7 departures a week - GLA (5x weekly) & LPL (2x weekly)
LGW has 96 departures a week to DUB (48x weekly), BFS (28x weekly), ORK & SNN (7x weekly) and ALC (6x weekly)
NCL, although not a base, has grown rapidly over the last year and now has 52 departures a week to 12 destinations including MAD, GRO, ALC, AGP, PMI, TFS, ACE, FAO, DUB, WMI, WRO & GDN.

 

[Tinkerman]

Informative post Severn, but i can't really see any of those destinations being typical FR destinations from CWL, apart from DUB, PMI, AGP, ALC.

ACE, LPA etc may well be the next move if aircraft availability at that bases allows.

 

[Jerry]

Great post Severn!
Looking at FR24 it appears that LPA has 4 based aircraft. ACE has 4. PMI has 8. AGP has 9. ALC has 9.
Brexit could stop any possibility of a base even if it was slight but non based flights might not be effected. All those potential routes could conceivably get extra aircraft. I don't think Ryanair will do any new routes but ALC and AGP and LPA could be good contenders especially as each only has 2 carriers on from CWL whereas PMI already has 3.

 

[Jerry]

@JohnCuddy1964 has posted on the Jet2 thread that the line engineers for 737s he mentioned on that thread possibly could be recruited for a Ryanair base! If that does happen then even just a 1 aircraft base would be massive for CWL!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Now that would make a mockery of MOL's claim that he's going to move umpteen aircraft from the UK if he doesn't like the Brexit deal. It would be interesting to see how he would explain away a new UK base. The only way I can think he might be able to do it without sounding ridiculous is by saying he's moving some capacity from a nearby base.

 

[Jerry]

Now that would make a mockery of MOL's claim that he's going to move umpteen aircraft from the UK if he doesn't like the Brexit deal. It would be interesting to see how he would explain away a new UK base. The only way I can think he might be able to do it without sounding ridiculous is by saying he's moving some capacity from a nearby base.

Yes it does but i'm sure that'll be quietly forgotten about! If i remember not that long after the vote they added aircraft to GLA and announced a whole load of routes from the UK after MOL said they wouldn't. Ryanairs problem is they are still receiving new aircraft and have to base and operate them somewhere and the UK market is an important one for them. If Brexit does go wrong aviation wise then Ryanair will either have some sort of back up plan or just move everything but until anyone knows what will happen I think it's a case of carrying as normal as possible for any airline.

 

[Jerry]

If Ryanair does open a single aircraft base then could this be a possible schedule for them.
Monday
Palma, Dublin, Krakow/Prague, Faro non based
Tuesday
Alicante, Dublin, Malta
Wednesday
Malaga, Dublin, Girona
Thursday
Palma, Dublin, Lanzarote, TFS non based
Friday
Alicante, Dublin, Krakow/Prague, Faro non based
Saturday
Malaga, Dublin, Girona
Sunday
Alicante, Dublin, Venice
Dublin 7 weekly, Alicante 3 weekly, Malaga 2 weekly, PMI 2 weekly, Girona 2 weekly, Krakow/Prague 2 weekly, Lanzarote 1 weekly, Gran Canaria 1 weekly, Venice 1 weekly. Faro would be 2 weekly non based and TFS would be 1 weekly non based.

 

[Tinkerman]

Whilst this is potentially excellent news for CWL i do remain sceptical regarding this. FR have publicly said that they will not open any new UK bases in 2018, so going against their own word in this manner would not look great.

Nice schedule above mind Jerry although i think we're all overthinking this a little at this stage. Are you sure it's FR John ? A few signs could point to someone else.

 

[Jerry]

Whilst this is potentially excellent news for CWL i do remain sceptical regarding this. FR have publicly said that they will not open any new UK bases in 2018, so going against their own word in this manner would not look great.

Nice schedule above mind Jerry although i think we're all overthinking this a little at this stage. Are you sure it's FR John ? A few signs could point to someone else.

It is only speculation. The poster believes it's Ryanair but there is possibility that it isn't.
Ryanair did say they wouldn't base more aircraft after the vote but then based more aircraft at GLA and opened up lots more new routes. It's a case of judge them on their actions.
If it isn't Ryanair then like has said before Jet2 and Monarch are options and also Norwegian. Whoever it is if CWL manages to attract another airline to base that would be really good news because although Flybe are really good for the airport they do lack an airline which they can develop the longer range holiday routes and new Spanish and other Med routes and Eastern Europe Ryanair would be perfect for that.

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair have released their Dublin Six Nations flights for 2018. The game is in Dublin on with kick off at 14.15 at the Aviva Stadium on the 24th February.
Friday 23rd February and Sunday 25th February
DUB-CWL 11.55-12.55 CWL-DUB 13.20-14.20
DUB-CWL 16.35-17.35 CWL-DUB 18.00-19.00
DUB-CWL 19.40-20.40 CWL-DUB 21.05-22.05
Saturday 24th February
DUB-CWL 06.10-07.10 CWL-DUB 07.35-08.35
DUB-CWL 20.40-21.40 CWL-DUB 22.05-23.05

Ryanair's Faro and Tenerife flights haven't been released for Summer 18 yet but i have noticed that Madrid is still in the drop down and the calendar covers all of Summer 18 though nothing is bookable. Hopefully it's just a glitch as CWL doesn't need IB Express and Ryanair on Madrid but it does have room for Ryanair on lots of other routes especially new ones.