Ryanair

[Jerry]

It could be that both the TUI expansion and Ryanair expansion at both CWL and EXT for 2019 may well be part of strategies by both airlines to strengthen their presence in the South West before Jet2 heads south as anticipated which has turned out well for both CWL and EXT!

 

[Marko1]

Personally I think Bristol has the edge in the race to entice Jet2. It has a proven record of attracting sufficient demand on routes across Europe at multiple weekly frequencies. I'm not sure that Cardiff can do that at present because if so then maybe Thomas cook would be offering weekly flights to say Corfu for example . I also question whether a four aircraft base could be sustained at Cardiff Exeter or Bournemouth year round. Not even in the good old day of bmi baby was that ever achieved. I may be completely wrong as I was about Qatar and we are assuming that jet2 is even interested in coming south of Birmingham or west of stansted . I do agree however that the machinations of tui in particular suggests they are protecting their south west customer base.

 

[Jerry]

Do tour operators take allocations on FR ?

I believe they can buy individual flights on Ryanair flights but not allocations.

 

[Jerry]

I may be completely wrong as I was about Qatar and we are assuming that jet2 is even interested in coming south of Birmingham or west of stansted

I do believe Qatar and Jet2 would be completely different situations so Bristol would be favourite and if Jet2 did base there it could have the side effect of TUI and Ryanair expanding more at CWL. Thomas Cook may well be different as they are a lot smaller than the others.

 

[Coathanger16]

I'm not sure that Cardiff can do that at present because if so then maybe Thomas cook would be offering weekly flights to say Corfu for example .

With the exception of their long haul operation from Manchester, Thomas Cook seem to be more cautious when it comes to expansion, so I wouldn't take inaction on their part as proof of insufficient demand.

I also question whether a four aircraft base could be sustained at Cardiff Exeter or Bournemouth year round.

Assuming Jet2 do expand into the South West, IMO the biggest factor in determining where they end up is how many aircraft they choose to open a base with. If as others have pointed out Jet2's minimum for a base is 4 aircraft, Bristol would seem to be at the top of the list. On the other hand if Jet2 reduced that figure from 4 to 2, bases opening at 2 out of Cardiff, Exeter and Bournemouth in the next 3 to 5+ years seems doable. Another scenario could be basing 4 aircraft at Cardiff and operating flights in a W pattern servicing Exeter and/or Bournemouth as well i.e. Cardiff - Alicante - Exeter - Alicante - Cardiff.

Lots of options open to them and Jet2 do seem to be more bold with the expansion plans than other airlines so hopefully something good will happen soon.

 

[CWL94]

CWL might be hoping that FR step in to add extra frequency to FAO to keep the route on par with this year. If the route maintains next summer at 2x weekly, it will be a serious drop in seats as BE have reduced FAO from 5x E195 weekly flights (118 seats) to 4x E175 flights (88 seats) due to the E195 leaving the base. This will equate to 476 less seats a week. Even if FR make FAO 3x weekly it will still result in a loss of 98 weekly seats.

As it stands if FAO remains at 2x weekly, there will be roughly 14,500 less seats available for S19 with the BE reductions!

 

[TOM100]

Will there be no E195 at CWL in S19 ? Two steps forward.....

 

[CWL94]

Will there be no E195 at CWL in S19 ? Two steps forward.....

The E195's were always due to leave the fleet - would always be a shame when the time came as routes that was/are successful FAO, FCO, VRN, EDI, CDG etc will see a drop in capacity moving forward. This is why there are calls from some people for BE to base a 4th aircraft so frequencies can increase so damage wont be as severe.

That's why moving forward FAO should really be taken over by FR say 3/4/5x weekly and let BE then focus on city/domestic routes as mentioned above

 

[Jerry]

Will there be no E195 at CWL in S19 ? Two steps forward.....

Only way there would be an E195 at CWL next summer is if it's the 4th based aircraft from BE.

let BE then focus on city/domestic routes as mentioned above

The problem with that is Faro is probably one of Flybe's most profitable routes and i believe they have a tie in with TUI on it so i'd guess they would want to keep the route going so i'd expect them to keep it at least 4 weekly in the summer. I don't see why they and Ryanair could each operate 4 weekly on it.

 

[Kestrel321]

The problem with that is Faro is probably one of Flybe's most profitable routes

You don’t know that... a long, seasonal, highly competed route? Apart from a few periods in the year it is probably one of the most difficult routes for Flybe.

 

[Jerry]

You don’t know that... a long, seasonal, highly competed route? Apart from a few periods in the year it is probably one of the most difficult routes for Flybe.

Well it's a route they've kept the E195 on and a route that despite competition from Ryanair they increased the frequency on. Also as it's a holiday route people will pay for extras like luggage and food onboard a route like that. Is it no coincidence that all 3 of Ryanairs routes are holiday routes where people will buy extras and not city routes. So i would suggest it is one of Flybe's more profitable routes but you are right i don't know for sure but to be fair no one knows that it isn't.

 

[Jerry]

So although they aren't onsale yet it looks like Ryanair has started to load up Faro and Tenerife, the new route Malta is onsale.
Faro is 2 weekly Monday and Friday the same as this year.
Monday FAO-CWL 08.45-11.25 CWL-FAO 11.50-14.30
Friday FAO-CWL 16.20-19.00 CWL-FAO 19.25-22.05
Tenerife South is 1 weekly Thursday the same as this year.
TFS-CWL 14.20-18.15 CWL-TFS 18.40-22.45
Malta is 2 weekly Wednesday and Sunday
MLA-CWL 07.00-09.25 CWL-MLA 09.50-14.15

That gives Cardiff 5 weekly flights from Ryanair +2 on 2018 and the only days there will not be a Ryanair flight is Tuesdays and Saturdays.
I would love to think there is more to come but i won't hold my breath!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Ryanair does tend to add flights and sometimes additional destinations in the months between the initial summer frequency announcement and the start of the next summer season.

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair does tend to add flights and sometimes additional destinations in the months between the initial summer frequency announcement and the start of the next summer season.

It would be nice if that would happen at Cardiff.

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair have put onsale flights from Cardiff to Dublin for the 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th March 2019 for the Six Nations.
15th March
DUB-CWL 14.05-15.05 CWL-DUB 15.30-16.30
DUB-CWL 20.50-21.50 CWL-DUB 22.15-23.15
16th March
DUB-CWL 06.15-07.15 CWL-DUB 07.40-08.40
17th March
DUB-CWL 19.50-20.50 CWL-DUB 21.15-22.15
DUB-CWL 20.50-21.50 CWL-DUB 22.15-23.15
18th March
DUB-CWL 20.50-21.50 CWL-DUB 22.15-23.15

 

[Jerry]

Well thanks to my car breaking down my US trip at the end of the month is cancelled!
But this now means that in April once i've transferred the day off and work approves it i will be flying with Ryanair for the first time on their new Cardiff to Malta route and that'll be just stage 1 of my trip! Price is coming up as £71 one way so hopefully it'll stay like that or get lower in the next week or 2! Will be interesting to finally see what they are like as an airline for myself as they seem a marmite airline as some people seem to like them and others hate them!

 

[Seasider]

I have flown with Ryanair 22 times and never had a problem (except for the arrival fanfare!). I think that a lot of people were put off by the stories that they cancelled flights and left people in the lurch. This was highly publicised and created a bad impression in people's mind.

In 2012, I flew on a day trip to Bergamo from LBA and deliberately booked Ryanair on the way out and JET2 on the way back. I didn't want to get stuck out there if there was a problem with the return flight. I knew that JET2 would get me back somehow.

 

[Jerry]

I have flown with Ryanair 22 times and never had a problem (except for the arrival fanfare!). I think that a lot of people were put off by the stories that they cancelled flights and left people in the lurch. This was highly publicised and created a bad impression in people's mind.

In 2012, I flew on a day trip to Bergamo from LBA and deliberately booked Ryanair on the way out and JET2 on the way back. I didn't want to get stuck out there if there was a problem with the return flight. I knew that JET2 would get me back somehow.

They do seem to be a marmite airline but they must do something right considering how big they are and their continued expansion!

 

[Foxlimayankee]

New route from FR. CWL-BCN starting summer 19. 2x weekly

VY must be chopping the route after all.

 

[Jerry]

Well that explains why VY dropped BCN! Good that Ryanair are doing a city but kind of a shame it's BCN which has forced VY off.