Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[David_itl]

Maybe they're taking a leaf out of EK's book? They went months with extremely high loads when they were only daily in an effort to raise overall yield i.e. let others take the cheaper economy fare passengers. That strategy didn't seem to hurt them!

 

[Scottie Dog]

Time for my monthly update based upon the available data from the Civil Aviation Authority:

Manchester Statistics - January 2017 (Part 1)

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

Nothing to report

In the absence of any data for this section I have provided a review of the performance for the domestic destinations served from Manchester, comparing January 2017 with the same month in 2016:

Aberdeen - +14.0806%
Belfast City - +22.282%
Belfast International - +13.0345
Edinburgh - -14.297%
Exeter - +1.36063%
Glasgow - -30.013%
Guernsey - +7.53425%
Heathrow - +0.77414%
Isle of Man - +5.00098%
Jersey - -36.1982%
Newquay - + 8.28221%
Norwich - -7.25844%
Southampton - +24.8561%


Manchester Statistics - January 2017 (Part 2)

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers

DUBAI................................................ 90,003
DUBLIN.............................................. 81,019
AMSTERDAM..................................... 80,813
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 67,348
HEATHROW....................................... 55,455
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............ 48,024
ALICANTE.......................................... 40,191
ABU DHABI........................................ 36,574
GENEVA............................................. 31,580
DOHA................................................ 30,760
ARRICIFE............................................ 30,266
MALAGA............................................ 29,794
FRANKFURT....................................... 27,453
MUNICH............................................ 25,433
COPENHAGEN................................... 23,421
LAS PALMAS...................................... 22,573
BRIDGETOWN.................................... 22,553
KEFLAVIK............................................ 22,430
BARCELONA....................................... 21,792
ORLANDO........................................... 25,912
BERLIN (SCHONEFELD)....................... 21,511
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL.................. 24,225
ISLAMABAD........................................ 20,326
BELFAST CITY...................................... 20,009
FUERTAVENTURA............................... 19,185
DUSSELDORF...................................... 17,324

CAA provisional statistics for January are missing a number of domestic destinations.


Manchester Statistics - January 2017 (Part 3)

Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.

Destination......................................Total Pax....Schedule Pax....Charter Pax....Percentage change

MILAN (MALPENSA).................... 10,179.......... 10,179...................... 0.................... 209.77
TOULOUSE.................................... 3,946........... 2,618................. 1,328.................... 151.50
PALMA DE MALLORCA.................. 5,975........... 5,975....................... 0..................... 132,13
BERLIN (SHONEFELD).................... 21,511......... 21,511..................... 0..................... 125.15
KRAKOW....................................... 11,392......... 11,392...................... 0.................... 117.90
SANTA CRUZ DE LA PALMA........... 2,860.................... 0............... 2,860.................... 106.20
HAMBURG................................... 16,882........... 16,882...................... 0.................... 106.10
GOA............................................. 10,099............. 7,792............... 2,307.................... 96.364
TEL AVIV....................................... 5,363............. 5,363...................... 0..................... 87,978
KEFLAVIK.................................... 22,430............ 19,113............... 3,317.................... 82.358
FUNCHAL...................................... 9,375.............. 6,174............... 3,201.................... 77,054
ISLAMABAD................................ 20,326............ 20,326..................... 0..................... 64.33
BOA VISTA.................................... 5,308.............. 5,308..................... 0...................... 62.922
KITTILA......................................... 2,996................. 474................ 2,443.................... 62.561
HANOVER.................................... 3,853............... 3,853...................... 0..................... 57.716
ATHENS........................................ 7,080.............. 7,080...................... 0..................... 54.653
GIBRALTAR................................... 6,695.............. 6,695...................... 0..................... 48.58
CHICAGO...................................... 2,407.............. 2,407...................... 0..................... 46.59
ALMERIA....................................... 2,396.............. 2,396...................... 0..................... 45,565
TURIN........................................... 9,217.............. 5,145................. 4,072.................... 42.568
HOLGUIN...................................... 3,452.............. 3,452....................... 0..................... 42.527
TORONTO..................................... 2,297.............. 2,297....................... 0..................... 41.44
KARACHI............................................ 14................... 14....................... 0...................... 40.00
MONTEGO BAY............................. 7,684.................... 0................. 7,684...................... 39.811
ILHA DO SAL.................................. 7,681.............. 7,681....................... 0...................... 39.68

CAA provisional statistics for January are missing a number of domestic destinations.

Manchester Statistics - January 2017 (Part 4)

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.

Foreign_airport……..Total_pax……..Total sched pax……Total charter pax……..% change

VIENNA……………………..5,099……………..5,099……………………0………………………………..+2.24584
BRUSSELS………………..15,158……………15,158……………………0………………………………..-1.45625
BEIJING……………………..8,051……………..8,051…………………..0………………………………….0.00
PRAGUE…………………..12,515……………12,515……………………0………………………………..+12.0011
COPENHAGEN………….23,241…………..23,421……………………0………………………………..+2.58421
HELSINKI…………………….8,091…………….8,091……………………0….……….……………………+5.79236
PARIS (CDG)………………48,024………….48,024……….……………0…..…………………………..+26.6857
DUSSELDORF……………17,324………….17,324…………………….0…..…………………………..+36.754
FRANKFURT MAIN……27,453………….27,453….…………………0……..…………………………-8.58142
MUNICH……………………25,433..……….28,433…………………….0.………………………………+5.05163
HONG KONG…………….11,860………….11,860…..………………..0……………………………….+9.96755
KEFLAVIK………………….22,430………….19,860………………3,317……………………………….+82.3577
DUBLIN…………………….81,019………….80,728…………………291…...…………….…………..+11.0382
MILAN (MALPENSA)….10,179………….10,179…………………...0……………………………….+209.769
ROME (FIUMICINO)…….5,021..…………5,021……………………..0……….……………………..+10.0373
AMSTERDAM…………… 80,813………….80,813.……………………0….………………………......+14.2815
ISLAMABAD………………20,326..………..20,326…………………….0……………………………….+64.3302
LISBON ……………………..15,495………….15,495……………………..0….………………..…………+20.8187
DOHA……………………….30,760………….30,760……………………..0……………………………….+12.5585
JEDDAH……………………..8,538…………….8,538……………………..0….…………………………..+22.0063
SINGAPORE……………….6,702…………….6,702….………………….0……………………………….-28.3515
MADRID…………………..13,383…………..13,383…………………...0…………………………………+11.3302
STOCKHOLM (ARN)….11,703…………..11,703…………………….0…………………………………+25.4475
GENEVA……………………31,580…………..29,887..……………1,693………….………………......+20,6817
ZURICH…………………….12,346……………12,346..………………….0…………………………….….+3.64339
ABU DHABI……………….36,574…………..36,574…..……………….0…………………………………-2.19463
DUBAI……………………….90,003…………..90,003……………………0…………………………………+11.5901
ATLANTA…………………..10,801………….10,801…………..……….0…………………………………-5.53612
CHICAGO…………………….2,407……………2,407…………………….0…………………………………+46.5895
HOUSTON…………………..3,404……………3,404…………………….0………………………………….0.00
NEW YORK (JFK)…………10,195………….10,195……………………0…………………………………-33.1081
NEW YORK (NEWARK)…9,461…………….9,461……………………0…………………………………+8.2866
PHILADELPHIA……………10,604………….10,604……………………0………………………………..+14.9361
HEATHROW……………….55,455………….55,455…………………….0……….……………………..+0.77414

CAA provisional statistics for January are missing a number of domestic destinations.

Manchester Statistics - January 2017 (Part 5)

Comparison of top 25 destinations - January 2007 versus January 2017

Foreign airport.............................Jan-07...............Jan-17

HEATHROW....................................... 81,586.................. 55,455
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 59,488.................. 67,348
DUBLIN.............................................. 52,465.................. 81,019
DUBAI................................................ 46,599.................. 90,003
AMSTERDAM..................................... 43,852.................. 80,813
ALICANTE........................................... 35,337.................. 40,191
GATWICK........................................... 34,045........................ 128
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 32,578.................. 48,024
MALAGA............................................ 31,859.................. 29,794
FRANKFURT....................................... 27,999.................. 27,453
ARRECIFE........................................... 26,722.................. 30,266
GENEVA............................................. 19,840.................. 31,580
CHICAGO (O'HARE)............................ 18,692................... 2,407
BRIDGETOWN.................................... 18,534.................. 22,553
BELFAST CITY..................................... 18,404................... 20,009
LAS PALMAS....................................... 18,279.................. 22,573
ORLANDO........................................... 17,455.................. 16,319
DOHA.................................................. 17,313.................. 30,760
EDINBURGH........................................ 17,040.................... 7,565
SHARM EL SHEIKH.............................. 16,698............................ 0
PAPHOS.............................................. 16,139..................... 9,969
GOA.................................................... 15,964................... 10,099
SINGAPORE......................................... 15,953.................... 6,702
NEW YORK (NEWARK)......................... 15,935..................... 9,461
SALZBURG………………………….…………….. 15,430………..……….. 6,029

CAA provisional statistics for January are missing a number of domestic destinations.

 

[Land23R]

Thanks SD. Just looking at that 10 year comparison, there are some very good growth markets such as Dubai, Doha, Amsterdam, Geneva and Paris; one or two destinations that are fairly flat like FRA, AGP and, perhaps surprisingly, MCO which is down slightly. Then there are the reductions, notably ORD but also EWR, and of course LHR. And, importantly, Singapore.

Do you have JFK for January 2007? Some will say that ORD is down because it's now seasonal and that EWR is a smaller a/c (I think), but that has only happened either because demand fell or the yields in winter were just unacceptable, or both.

 

[Scottie Dog]

JFK was 14,716 in January 2007.

 

[Land23R]

So a reduction there as well to 10,195. Thanks Scottie.

 

[Dobbo]

Foreign airport.............................Jan-07...............Jan-17
HEATHROW....................................... 81,586.................. 55,455
DUBLIN.............................................. 52,465.................. 81,019
DUBAI................................................ 46,599.................. 90,003
AMSTERDAM..................................... 43,852.................. 80,813
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 32,578.................. 48,024
CHICAGO (O'HARE)............................ 18,692................... 2,407
DOHA.................................................. 17,313.................. 30,760
SINGAPORE......................................... 15,953.................... 6,702
NEW YORK (NEWARK)......................... 15,935..................... 9,461

Cheers SD - love it as ever.

Just picking out a few selective numbers on the 10 year changes...

• Heathrow, seems to have stabilised but is much reduced from 10 years ago.
• Dublin, has (I think) a high P2P flow, so I don't think its a case of DUB taking LHRs place.
• Dubai has clearly picked up a lot of the LHR traffic flows, although the overall market has increased.
• Amsterdam, like DUB has a high P2P flow, but will probably have significant LH transfer.
• Paris is a surprising increase. Maybe more P2P, but I wonder where they get transfer traffic flows to...
• Chicago. The less said about that the better. Disaster zone.
• Doha, is in a similar position to EK and DXB. Impressive growth the past 2/3 years.
• Singapore, struggled following the GFC and hasn't quite recovered. Now faces much more competition from the MEB3 and CX. Recent trends look promising.
• Newark clearly struggled, did BMI fly to EWR or JFK? It will be interesting to see what UA do over the summer peak now the IAD flight has stopped.

p.s. - do we have any loads on the US flights?

 

[Land23R]

BMI flew to ORD and IAD, not NY as far as I know.
Sorry, can't do loads on most of the US flights just now as I need to know how many flights operated due to seasonal suspensions, reduced frequencies and a/c types. Andy's lists would help of course but the TAS magazine with January listed should be available soon too.

 

[ethanegcc]

Hi Land23R and SD thanks for all of your hard work.

Is there any chance you could just do ATL for us Land23R? I think it was six-weekly A333 all the way through January.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Hi Land23R and SD thanks for all of your hard work.

Is there any chance you could just do ATL for us Land23R? I think it was six-weekly A333 all the way through January.

If it operated daily exc Sundays then 26 days 52 flights (assume none canx)
10,801 / 52 = 208 per flight
268 seats available (I think)
77.5% LF (I think)

 

[Land23R]

If VS to ATL was 6 x weekly and operated on Sunday 29th Jan (i.e. no flight Thurs. but does it vary?), then 54 sectors gives an average load of 200, which is 75%. If only 52 sectors operated i.e. 4 weeks plus Mon/Tues 30/31, then the AL is 208 and a LF of 78%. ATL was down 6% on Jan 2016.

Ah, Ian beat me to it.

 

[Dobbo]

Not bad - I've heard the premium cabins in the ATL flights are popular, so I hope VS/DL are pleased with the overall performance.

 

[Land23R]

A poster on pprune has provided some other LFs, including EWR & PHL. Based on his assumptions, I agree the figures.

Load factors:

Qatar - DOH
Based on all flights operating on 788's the LF for January is 85.28%

American - PHL
Based on all flights operating (6x weekly on 332) the LF for Jan is 79%
(assumes flight operated Sun/Mon/Tues, 29-31 Jan)

United - EWR
Based on daily flight on 752 the LF for January is 90.2%

Saudia - JED
Based on all flights operating on 789 a/c the LF for January is 65.12%

I also calculated Etihad at 87.5% based on a morning B777 (412 seat version) and an afternoon A332.

Just to add, if the morning A380 on EK started 1 Jan with a 517 seat 3 class version all month as posters on that other forum suggest, the average load of 484 is a LF of 88.0%.

 

[Land23R]

If VS to ATL was 6 x weekly and operated on Sunday 29th Jan (i.e. no flight Thurs. but does it vary?), then 54 sectors gives an average load of 200, which is 75%. If only 52 sectors operated i.e. 4 weeks plus Mon/Tues 30/31, then the AL is 208 and a LF of 78%. ATL was down 6% on Jan 2016 .

Revisions and Updates:
I'd seen a listing that ATL operated daily. There are 266 seats I think on the A333. If that were the case, it would put the LF down to 65.5%. but I've been assured there were days when the flight didn't operate so the original LFs shown may well be correct.

PHL: Again, using the same source, AA734 operated daily until the 17th. and only then 6 x weekly, so the LF drops to 72.6%. Still, not bad.

AA to ORD operated 8 days only but on a B767, so a LF of 72.3%.

JFK: AA operated 9 days. DL flew 44 sectors. Of those 22 days, 8 were on a B763 and 14 a B757 (credit Andy's listings). I don't know how many, if any, TCX flights there were. If none (unlikely), the LF would be 83%.

United, Qatar and Saudi remain as previously indicated.

 

[Dobbo]

Feb Numbers:

1,659,843 pax, now rolling 26,029,213 for the year.

27 million should be more than doable this year and would mean 10 million passengers added in the last 10 years.

High single digit growth would mean 28 million (or thereabouts) by the end of the year.

The cargo market going well, up 10.84% to over 115,000 tonnes.

 

[g_tripp60]

Yes, 9% growth every month from March would take us just over 28m.
6% growth to 27.4m.

Although seasonal variations are now less strong, I think it will still be the important summer months of June-Sep.
that will mainly define where MAN ends up for the calendar year 2017.

 

[g_tripp60]

Sorry, I've no idea what's happened here but Land23R seems to have acquired a new identity.
Mods, any suggestions or help appreciated. I want to remain as I was.

 

[Land23R]

Yes, 9% growth every month from March would take us just over 28m.
6% growth to 27.4m.

Although seasonal variations are now less strong, I think it will still be the important summer months of June-Sep.
that will mainly define where MAN ends up for the calendar year 2017.

I've logged out and back in again and I'm back in as Land23R I think.
However, I seem to have lost the 'Edit' facility to delete the posts by the mysterious g_tripp60, presumably because I can't edit what it thinks is someone else's post.

 

[Scottie Dog]

That's so strange Land23R! Anyway, I would be happy with a 6pc increase allowing for the lousy exchange rates. I recall that the USD was 2.6057 whenot I started work in 1968!!

 

[Land23R]

I can even recall the days of $2.80 to the pound Scottie and Harold Wilson devalued it to $2.40. The famous "pound in your pocket" comment.

Yes, 6% wouldn't be too bad, and remember MAG did suggest growth might fall to 2% for a time although the timing wasn't specified, before picking up again.

 

[Aviador]

Sorry, I've no idea what's happened here but Land23R seems to have acquired a new identity.
Mods, any suggestions or help appreciated. I want to remain as I was.

Your IP address is showing as the same as G Trippo. It's a bug caused by the server move. If you fully log out and back in it should work properly then.