Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Dobbo]

The U.S. demand could go either way.

As much as the so-called trump effect could deter MAN outbound tourists, the same effect could actually increase outbound tourism from the US population (there being a sizeable proportion of the population who are probably less than happy at the situation).

Whether that helps MAN much, or whether these tourists look to Europe or the UK at all I have no idea. There will be "winners" and "losers" but it's not all one way traffic.

 

[Dobbo]

A few promising words to end the week:

"February 2016 had an extra day and so it looks like the underlying growth trend is 13-14%. Strong. At 26Mppa already, the rest of 2017 needs only single-digit growth to get close to 28M. MAN is adjusting to playing in a Man's game, and it is breathtaking. From less than 18M in 2010 to a likely 30+M by the end of this decade, that's a change of gauge. There is now a noticeable spreading of the peaks, it is no longer all over by 11.00am.

ATC will need to be handy with single-runway operations this summer in the mid-day period."

No credit, which the author is happy about.

I think this puts the recent "woes" into context and focuses minds on the critical mass that is being created.

MAN is now in competition with some of the big boys in Europe, and is making a decent fist of it. There will be ups and down along the way (I'm certain of that) but the underlying trend remains positive, in spite of the raft of economic headwinds at present.

 

[ethanegcc]

Just out of interest, is anyone able to give the LFs for TCX's new Tobago service for December/January?

 

[David_itl]

The airport is blasting over social media about 26 million passrngers through the terminals

And here's a report

https://www.insidermedia.com/inside...r-airport-hits-26-million-passenger-milestone

 

[Land23R]

Looks like DL have just over 200 pax outbound on their JFK today and AA over 180 on their ORD.
J class busier on DL.

 

[Land23R]

Just an observation about United's flight this morning.

MAN-EWR showing just 13 empty seats half an hour before departure. BHX's flight showing 18, so both have good loads. However, whereas MAN has J class (16 seats) full, 7 of the BHX available seats are in Business.
Of course, we don't know if that is typical based on a 1 day snapshot or what upgrades there have been for frequent flyers etc. but I have to say that when I've checked recently, J class has very often been full up front on the MAN flights (only rarely look at BHX loads).

 

[Aceshigh]

Many thanks re loads. Odd that the f'cast for later in the year is so bad.

Trump has been in for a few months.

Oil price increase was a while ago so should have filtered in by now although I know it's gone down again.

Just seems very odd that Winter is so absolutely dire given current situation and summer.

 

[Land23R]

I don't know if this is of interest or how useful it is, but it's a snapshot of the loads today reflected by the seat plans only half an hour before scheduled departure time for the US carriers; the only exception being DL to JFK which was just over 2 hours before SDT as I forgot to recheck later.

There are of course the usual caveats for what we don't know:
Yield; free upgrades; seats taken by positioning staff or security personnel etc.
Nevertheless, it gives a reasonable picture.

The figures are:
Available economy (incl. economy plus) / total E seats on a/c
Available J class / total J seats on a/c
Total seats taken / total seats on a/c (i.e. total load / capacity.

I suspect the figures will show up too close together but here goes:

AA - JFK: 5 /181; 5 / 28; 199 / 209;
AA - PHL: 11 /238; 0 / 20; 247 / 258;
AA - ORD; 4 / 181; 1 / 28; 204 / 209;
UA - EWR; 10 / 153; 0 / 16; 159 / 169;
DL - ATL; 6 / 254; 0 / 37; 285 / 291;
DL - JFK; 8 / 200; 11 / 26; 207 / 226;

It is of course the Easter holiday period but all those loads are over 90% with 4 of them 95% or more.
Oh that those could be maintained throughout the week and throughout May/June.

As this information is readily available from the web site for these carriers, I don't think they can be regarded as confidential or I wouldn't post them.

 

[David_itl]

The Evening News has the top 10 destinations last year

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co...10-most-popular-holiday-destinations-12874063

 

[Dobbo]

Good numbers for HU. Nice to see a couple of long hauls in there.

Should get the March 2017 headline numbers in the next couple of days (£10 says it is linked with a story about "the great Easter getaway").

 

[Aceshigh]

Ha ha yes like Weather stories in the Daily Express and House price inflation in the Daily Mail.

Never underestimate the power of the press when the the readers are gormless.

 

[David_itl]

http://www.adsadvance.co.uk/manchester-airport-gains-2-7m-passengers-in-12-months.html

Up 10.1% in March

 

[Dobbo]

Extraordinary, once again. I expect the %age increase to reduce in the summer months, but this should close the gap between the seasons.

Interesting that the USA is cited as a growth market still.

 

[Dobbo]

Business traveller website has some precise numbers:

• Rolling 12 month total of 26,202,945.
  
• March 2017 passenger total of 1,917,147.
• Year on year percentage change +10.1%.

Only Moscow Sheremetyevo grew faster of the major european airports, and the greatest long haul growth to the USA, Pakistan and China.

 

[David_itl]

Makes it all the more bewildering the drop off in services to the States in winter.

 

[Dobbo]

I suspect many 2017 summer holiday plans were booked pre-Trump but post Brexit.

Perhaps winter holiday forward bookings have simply struggled?

 

[Scottie Dog]

CAA Stats for February are now out. I'm away for a few days, however I will work on my usual summary and will post the results as soon as possible.

 

[Land23R]

Although Feb is now listed under airport data, it's telling me the page cannot be found.
They have evidently found it on the Cardiff thread. Can anyone give me a link please that might open the file?

(I also tried going into Jan. and changing the 01 to 02 for the link which worked previously).

 

[Dobbo]

@Land23R hopefully this should work:

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles..._12_1_Intl_Air_Pax_Traffic_Route_Analysis.pdf

Back of a fag packet SQ to Singapore was at 165 pax per sector.

 

[David_itl]

Couple or so to think about: Iraqi Airways 110 passengers a flight. Pretty sure that's higher than last time. Cathay Pacific 314 passengers a flight. Hainan 210 passengers a flight