Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Scottie Dog]

Okay, it's taken a little longer than I had anticipated but here are the comparative figures for long-haul destinations over the last 11 years in the month of May. Trying to fit 13 years (since my records start) was just not viable due to column width!!

foreign_airport..May-07..May-08..May-09..May-10..May-11..May-12..May-13..May-14..May-15..May-16..May-17
BRIDGETOWN....7,231.....5,381.....4,405....4,095....4,018....3,249....2,916.....4,004....3,748....4,374....5,188
CALGARY...........4,147.....3,511.....3,916....4,836....5,243....4,108....2,837.....2,343....2,692....2,530..........0
TORONTO........13,074....13,907...10,735..11,116..12,273....9,947...10,919...10,125....8,753....8,133...8,669
VANCOUVER......8,364......7,250....6,140....6,381....5,531....5,008.....4,920.....5,089....4,340....3,235...3,097
BOA VISTA...............0...........0....1,446....2,169....3,518.....3,833.....3,675....3,682....3,297.....3,837...5,407
ILHA DO SAL......1,098.....2,119....1,681....1,717....1,766.....2,072.....2,056....1,857....1,622....3,046....4,772
BEIJING...................0............0.........0...........0..........0...........0...........0..........0...........0..........0....5,529
CUNAGUA..........5,621......5,008....2,367....2,299....2,541....1,298.....2,901....2,494....2,497....2,441....4,777
HOLGUIN...........3,939......3,430....2,218....4,323....4,784....4,850.....3,143....2,720....4,478....5,135....5,544
SANTA CLARA.....1,328......1,231......955........971......965.......971.......993...........0..........0..........0.....2,413
VARADERO.........3,689......3,757....5,374....4,018....4,168....3,778.....3,073....2,471....3,162....2,456....2,437
PUERTO PLATA..12,028......9,824....8,648....4,786....3,135....3,605.....2,208....2,153....2,880....2,657....2,594
PUNTA CANA......5,359......6,135....8,605....7,295....6,017....3,400.....5,760....7,019....7,795...10,318..10,258
HONG KONG............0............0..........0...........0..........0...........0..........0...........0....9,291.....8,758...8,007
GOA....................254............0..........3...........0....6,215.......251..........0...........0..........0...........0.........0
BAGHDAD................0............0..........0..........0...........0..........0...........0..........0..........0............0......794
MONTEGO BAY....6,421.....6,045....6,504....5,478....5,303....3,661.....4,525....6,088....7,133.....5,016....5,223
MOMBASA..........2,925...........0....1,823....1,472....1,348..........0...........0...........0..........0...........0..........0
MALE.................3,768....3,050.....2,393....1,714....1,496.........0...........0...........0...........0..........0..........0
CANCUN...........10,476..13,102.....3,051..12,964...17,196.15,047...17,639...20,410..18,963..19,760..22,133
P'VALLARTA........1,017....1,252..........0...........0...........0.........0...........0.....2,194....2,856...2,329....2,373
MUSCAT...................0..........0...........0..........0............0.........0..........0............0.........0..........0.....7,822
ISLAMABAD.....11,923...19,269...13,811..15,677...15,529..12,137..13,891...10,157..11,769..13,874...12,489
KARACHI.............910........334.........97........20.......104.......132.......277.......1141.....143......268........203
LAHORE............3,045.....3,440....3,732....3,863....4,076.....3,811....5,064.....3,706...3,865...3,079.....3,626
DOHA.............15,232....10,645..12,003..10,500...12,771...16,516..16,851...17,301..21,693..21,761...22,552
JEDDAH..................0.........842....1,042.........0...........0...........0..........0.....4,867....6,675...6,727.....6,486
RIYADH..................0.........859.....1,305........0...........0............0.........0...........0...........0.........0...........0
SINGAPORE.....10,455....14,859.....6,576...5,142....6,964.....6,968...6,830.....6,649....7,076...6,757.....5,871
ST LUCIA................0......2,567...........0.........0...........0...........0.........0......1,401......319.........0............0
ABU DHABI.......8,070....10,567...10,650..10,053...14,625..21,369..23,358....27,244..27,650.28,040 27,211
DUBAI............31,040....35,058...39,201...43,815..50,511..43,590..55,186....60,468..62,839..66,328...64,406 ATLANTA.........10,687....11,117...13,236...12,408..12,320..12,204..12,637....10,748..13,607..14,063...12,899
BOSTON...........7,892............0...........0...........0..........0..........0..........0............0..........0......487.....5,573
CHARLOTTE............0.............0..........0...........0...........0..........0..........0......2,117.........0.........0...........0
CHICAGO.......23,052.....22,678..11,879.....8,754.....9,492...9,950....9,548....11,027...9,882...7,390.....8,673
HOUSTON..............0.............0..........0...........0...........0..........0..........0............0.........0..........0.....4,496
LAS VEGAS....10,507.......9,680....5,245....2,468.....9,667....9,905..12,680....15,406..17,163..18,829...19,331
LOS ANGELES........0.............0..........0...........0...........0..........0..........0............0..........0....4,275.....6,058
MIAMI..................0..............0..........0..........0............0..........0.........0............0....4,144....4,722.....3,700
NEW YORK JFK..13,053..18,174...9,393...13,371...14,187....9,780...9,830....10,534...19,440..29,166...34,541
NEW YORK EWR.18,085..17,902..16,432..18,847...18,123....9,391...9,575......9,496....8,870....7,326....7,694
ORLANDO.........28,809...31,927..38,900..36,398...30,017...29,847..28,799...41,118..41,886..50,049...50,842
PHILADELPHIA..12,692...14,476..15,349..15,640...13,937...13,262..13,934...12,457....9,276....8,884....9,009
SAN FRANCISCO........0...........0.........0...........0..........0...........0..........0...........0...........0..........0....6,144
SANFORD..........29,185..30,936..17,082...14,414..15,952...15,764..14,943....8,392.....7,822....6,862....5,923
WASHINGTON............0.........0..........0...........0..........0......7,452...6,623....6,699.....6,133....5,117..........0

 

[Dobbo]

Just noticed that CAA have released initial report for June but very few airports, including Manchester, are published.

FYI - next scheduled update of this is on 28 July (Friday).

 

[ethanegcc]

Breaking the above down:

Bridgetown - Broadly positive trend and, although not as high as MAY '07, it is on the rise.
Toronto - Disappointing trend in the long-term, but on the rise from last year.
Vancouver & Calgary - Disappointing.
Boa Vista & Sal- Great growth on this route, compared to last year.
Cuba & Dominican Rep. routes doing well, with all either growing or remaining similar.
Baghdad - There must have only been four flights (or five) so an av. load of 98. Pretty good!
Cancun and Puerto Vallarta growing
Great growth on Doha/Abu Dhabi, with JED and DXB remaining similar
Chicago back on the rise after last year I see. If they can get their act together next summer and have a good run of the 788, I can see them filling the Jan-March gap and making it year-round.
LAS/LAX/JFK/EWR all on the up.
Slight drop for Miami - TCX not doing as good here as on other routes.
Orlando and Philadelphia up.

Still sad to see Calgary and Washington are gone, but positive to see how many gained.

 

[Dobbo]

we have some data:

USA
SFO - 9438
LAX - 7102
PHL - 10991
EWR - 8109
JFK 38119
IAH - 6119
ORD - 7891
BOS - 10875
ATL - 12478

Canada
Yyz - 15380
Yvr - 6097

Far East
SIN - 6632
HKG - 11403
PEK - 7190

Middle East
DXB - 62307
AUH - 26987
DOH - 19863

Muscat came in at 6497, so not great. It's still early days and this is the low season for the Middle East carriers.

Im sure we can break this down in more detail, but my initial reaction is a decent set of numbers. CX's increase has carried through the numbers, and SQ seem to be back to the 160 odd passenger loads. IAH now almost balances SIN in terms of numbers which is remarkable from a few months ago.

UA are getting decent numbers, and the US routes are doing well numbers wise.

Tough to tell with Canada. I bet YVR loads are pretty high though at 3x weekly...

 

[David_itl]

June stats up and running. Few highlights:

Emirates increased passenger numbers to 62307 despite less capacity. Loads 68% ish?
Oman averaged 108 per flight to carry 6400 passenger
Qatar down 13% to under 20000
Etihad down 8% to under 27000.

Collectively, this year's ME4 carried about 2000 passengers more than last year's ME3

Saudia increased numbers by around 300 (Jeddah down by 600 with Riyadh getting nearly 1000)

Singapore almost balanced out! 6632 on the SIN sector and 6199 on the IAH sector
SFO nearly 9500 passengers -->> this comes in at 214 per flight and BOS got over 10000 passengers ->> around 220 per flight?

Cathay up almost 11% to 11400. 259 per flight or 72.5% loads
Hainan up 25% to nearly 7200. 163 per flight

Royal Air Maroc had 1453 passengers or 55 per flight. Slightly on the low side for my liking.

 

[ethanegcc]

Although the arrival of Oman Air/Riyadh have diluted numbers on Emirates presumably, the overall number is up and for all this capacity in low season, it is quite a lot to absorb. Riyadh at 1,000 passengers for 3 rotations would give them an average of 166 per flight - pretty good to me!

The American numbers seem very positive to me. So 214 for SFO, 220 for BOS seem quite good to me. It would really depend on how those numbers are divided between Virgin and Thomas Cook for an evaluation of performance.

If my calculations are correct, Singapore would have had average loads of 165/166 and Houston 155.

For Vancouver, basing it on three weekly flights all June, with two weekly flights the first week and a half, so an average load of approximately 254.

 

[Dobbo]

Good numbers on SIN/IAH.

SIN has been steady at around 165 for some time now. I wonder if that's the top line of the MAN split (i.e. SIN-IAH traffic takes the rest). Seems odd if so - I thought SIN-IAH traffic is rather low. It's incredible that IAH is almost balancing with SIN - I've not seen the ridiculous low fares

YVR is doing okay. There were some stories of rouge looking at this route, so perhaps they will look at this again.

 

[David_itl]

Won't be at all surprised if SQ is contemplating doing the increase to daily for next year. To get over 150 passengers per flight to IAH is one of the most surprising things I've seen for years

 

[Dobbo]

Do we know how many sectors were operated?

EDIT: I should rephrase, @ethanegcc how many sectors did you base the average loads from?

 

[Land23R]

David, thanks for the numbers. I'd noted them earlier but was trying to absorb them.

That CX Load Factor seems low. When did the A350 come in with 280 seats as opposed to the A340 with 340 seats?
I assume June was up to 5 flights weekly.

My initial reaction om the L/H pax was that they were very mixed, including the US routes. ATL & ORD disappointing but without knowing the number of flights, I was surprised BOS carried more than SFO. If the average loads were 214/220, that would be ok for VS, but TCX have 322 seats so with the mix, the figures are no more than reasonable in my view.
On the other hand, it was good to see UA up (7% I think). JFK looks a good increase but we'd meed to match that against seat capacity.

SQ very encouraging in both directions. Oman at 108 per flight is only 50% LF though.

It was on some of the short haul routes where MAN really did well.

 

[User001]

Oman Air made it public that they expected May/June to have low pax figures, but that July onwards was looking more than healthy. I know there have been many full flights of late.

As an aside, there was 2 days last week (I forget which ones), but every single Thomas Cook long haul flight went out full and overbooked, the inbounds were all 98% and above too.

July figures should be well up based on loads I've seen.

 

[ethanegcc]

Do we know how many sectors were operated?

EDIT: I should rephrase, @ethanegcc how many sectors did you base the average loads from?

I did a very simple 20 MAN-IAH/MAN-SIN departures for that calculation. There was probably 1 more maybe which may dilute slightly but that is very minimal.

American to Philadelphia would have been around 180-186 depending on how many cancellations there were!

Thomas Cook to Los Angeles was around 296 (based on 12 MAN-LAX departures). I don't know about you but if my calculations are correct this seems really positive for June.

Virgin's Atlanta average was 208.

 

[Land23R]

Yes, I raised the point about CX too. If it were the A350 all month, I reckon 259 average load would make it 92.5% LF, which would be more in line with CX's previous performance.

Edit: Yes, just checked with Andy941's log and he shows the A359 from 1 June.

 

[David_itl]

Brain trouble is what it was.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Firstly thanks to all those who have contributed by posting their interpretation of the CAA stats - it's great to see so many different views and opinions.

Here is my 'take' on the data:

Manchester Statistics - June 2017 (Part 1)

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

Riyadh reappears for the first time since December 2009 with 977 passengers

Two domestic statistics are currently missing from the CAA report for June.

Belfast City - in June 2016 23,821 passengers were carried and Inverness with 6,182.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics

Monthly passengers - 2,725,069
Annual Total - 12,715,926
Moving Annual Total - 26,947,773




Manchester Statistics -June 2017 (Part 2)

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers

PALMA............................................. 111,818
ALICANTE........................................... 98,284
AMSTERDAM..................................... 87,094
MALAGA............................................ 79,984
DUBLIN.............................................. 75,830
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 74,040
FARO.................................................. 66,730
DUBAI................................................ 62,307
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 53,560
BARCELONA....................................... 49,650
HEATHROW....................................... 49,332
ARRICIFE............................................ 47,890
ORLANDO.......................................... 46,569
IBIZA................................................... 45,068
DALAMAN.......................................... 40,735
NEW YORK JFK................................... 38,119
PAPHOS.............................................. 36,566
MAHON............................................. 33,749
HERAKLION........................................ 32,850
LAS PALMAS....................................... 31,023
CORFU................................................ 29,925
MUNICH............................................. 29,224
FRANKFURT........................................ 29,015
COPENHAGEN.................................... 27,087
ABU DHABI......................................... 26,987

CAA statistics for June are provisional.


Manchester Statistics - June 2017 (Part 3)

Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.

Destination......................................Total Pax....Schedule Pax....Charter Pax....Percentage change
SAN FRANCISCO................................. 9,438............. 9,438.................. 0.................... 3916.20
LONDON CITY........................................ 369................ 369.................. 0.................... 339.29
OLBIA.................................................. 3,796............. 2,311...........1 ,487.................... 260.00
TOULOUSE.......................................... 6,576............. 6,576.................. 0.................... 208.01
BOSTON............................................ 10,875........... 10,875.................. 0.................... 162.68
MIKONOS........................................... 6,790............. 6,790................... 0................... 146.55
BERLIN (SCHONEFELD)...................... 25,205.......... 25,011............... 194................... 144.09
BASTIA................................................ 1,075............. 1,075................... 0................... 115.43
OPORTO............................................. 9,127............. 9,127................... 0.................... 110.06
HAMBURG........................................ 24,539........... 24,539.................. 0.................... 108.15
KRAKOW........................................... 13,964........... 13,964.................. 0.................... 98.606
GIBRALTAR......................................... 9,128.............. 9,128.................. 0.................... 90.067
EINDHOVEN....................................... 5,492.............. 5,492.................. 0.................... 89.118
SPLIT................................................. 12,256............ 10,660........... 1,596.................... 86,431
CUNAGUA.......................................... 4,996............... 4,996................. 0.................... 82.87
HURGHADA........................................ 8,210.............. 8,210.................. 0.................... 82.202
SALONIKA......................................... 10,048.............. 7,337.............2,711................... 69.187
STOCKHOLM (ARLANDA).................. 17,015............ 17,015................. 0..................... 66.065
ILHA DO SAL CAPE VERDE.................. 5,596............... 5,596................. 0.................... 65.709
BEZIERS.............................................. 4,019............... 4,019................. 0.................... 61.276
KARACHI............................................... 162.................. 162.................. 0................... 60.396
GDANSK............................................. 4,586............... 4,586................. 0.................... 60.238
BILBAO............................................... 6,799.............. .6,799................. 0.................... 57.202
LOS ANGELES..................................... 7,102............... 7,102................. 0.................... 52.175
LIMOGES............................................ 6,307............... 6,307................. 0................... 49.526

CAA statistics for June are provisional.


Manchester Statistics - June 2017 (Part 4)

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.

Foreign_airport……..Total_Pax 2016……..Total Pax 2017……% change
VIENNA……………………. 8,975……….…………….. 9,526……………….. +6.1393
BRUSSELS………………. 18,018……………………. 18,293……………….. +1.5263
BEIJING…………………… 5,711………………….…… 7,190.………………. +25.897
PRAGUE…………………. 12,732……………………. 14,207…….…………. +11.585
COPENHAGEN……….. 30,252……………………. 27,087……………….. -10.46
HELSINKI…………………. 9,444…………….………. 10,995……………….. +16.423
PARIS (CDG)……………. 46,599……………………. 53,560…………….... +14.938
DUSSELDORF…………. 15,271………..………….. 20,743……………….. +35.833
FRANKFURT MAIN…. 34,319……………………. 29,015….…………….. -15.45
MUNICH…………………. 29,975..…………………. 29,224………………… -2.505
HONG KONG…………… 10,284….………………… 11,403 ……….……… +10.881
KEFLAVIK………………….. 7,869……………………… 8,549………………… +8.6415
DUBLIN…………………… 76,016……………………. 75,830………….……. -0.245
MILAN (MALPENSA).. 13,241……………………. 17,129……………….. +29.363
ROME (FIUMICINO)….. 8,606..…………………. 12,097……………….. +40.565
AMSTERDAM…………. 85,860…………………….. 87,094.……………... +1.4372
ISLAMABAD……………… 9,828..…………………….. 8,223………………. -16.33
LISBON…………………… 18,430…………………….. 24,916………..…….. +35.193
DOHA…………………….. 22,859…………………….. 19,863………………. -13.11
JEDDAH……………………. 7,179………………………. 6,546……………….. -8.817
SINGAPORE……………… 6,762……………………….. 6,632………………. -1.923
MADRID…………………. 13,890…………………….. 13,808………………. -0.59
STOCKHOLM (ARN)… 10,246…………………….. 17,015………………. +66.065
GENEVA…………………. 15,564…………………….. 17,947….………..... +15.311
ZURICH……………………. 7,779………………………. 9,735………………… +25.145
ABU DHABI…………….. 29,411……………….……. 26,987…..…………. -8.242
DUBAI……………………. 61,409.…………………….. 63,307………………. +1.4623
ATLANTA……………….. 13,208…….……………….. 12,478………………. -5.527
CHICAGO…..…………….. 9,485.………………………. 7,891………………. -16.81
HOUSTON……………..………… 0………………………. 6,199………………. +0.00
NEW YORK (JFK)……… 32,834…………………….. 38,119………..……. +16.096
NEW YORK (NEWARK). 7,472………………………. 8,109………………. +8.5252
PHILADELPHIA……………9,769……………………….10,991……..………. +12.509
HEATHROW……………. 55,109……………………… 49,332……………… -10.48

CAA statistics for June are provisional.

Manchester Statistics - June 2017 (Part 5)

Comparison of top 25 destinations - June 2007 versus June 2017

Foreign airport.............................June-07...............June-17
PALMA.............................................. 110,576.................. 111,818
HEATHROW....................................... 76,489.................. 49,332
MALAGA............................................ 70,516.................. 79,984
ALICANTE........................................... 66,908.................. 98,284
FARO.................................................. 60,494.................. 66,730
DUBLIN.............................................. 57,086.................. 75,830
DALAMAN.......................................... 56,477................. 40,735
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 52,348.................. 74,040
AMSTERDAM..................................... 44,405.................. 87,094
IBIZA.................................................. 43,062.................. 45,068
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 41,753.................. 53,560
PAPHOS............................................. 38,322.................. 36,566
MAHON............................................. 38,022.................. 33,749
DUBAI................................................ 36,402.................. 62,307
GATWICK........................................... 34,871........................... 2
LARNACA........................................... 34,177.................. 23,005
HERAKLION........................................ 32,931.................. 32,850
SANDFORD........................................ 32,069.................... 6,567
MALTA............................................... 24,422.................. 22,546
ORLANDO.......................................... 30,052.................. 46,569
FRANKFURT....................................... 27,934.................. 29,015
ZAKINTHOS........................................ 27,400.................. 25,159
ARRECIFE........................................... 27,004.................. 47,890
CORFU............................................... 25,255.................. 29,925
CHICAGO (O'HARE)............................ 24,537.................... 7,891

CAA are statistics for June are provisional.

 

[Dobbo]

Were we able to go on the US CAA site to work out the number of IAH-SIN traffic?

 

[User001]

Many thanks as usual for the breakdown of the figures scottiedog. Great work as usual!

 

[ethanegcc]

Were we able to go on the US CAA site to work out the number of IAH-SIN traffic?

I can't work out that site for the life of me!

 

[David_itl]

Still doesn't break it down to IAH-SIN and IAH-MAN. The latest stats are for January... I've lumped them by route and then individual airline and inbound or outbound MAN.

 

[Dobbo]

Posted by GavinC on dried fruit - so I guess most of you have seen it, but it looks like MAN has passed 27m...

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles...t_data_2017_06/Airport_Statistics_Summary.pdf