Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Dobbo]

Is that assuming a 50:50 seat split?

 

[David_itl]

just been trying to work out the US version of the CAA stats. This is what I think what SQ carried on the DME-IAH sector in the 1st 6 months of the year:

seats: 72280. Passengers 35547. Loads approx 49.18%

 

[ethanegcc]

That is just the overall load factor for the passengers carried as stated on CAA on the MAN-SIN and MAN-IAH sector, so I suppose no! I am not too technical!

 

[ethanegcc]

Looking at the US stats, PHL/LAS/JFK sees a nice increase in pax!

MAN-YYZ is also up 5%.

 

[ethanegcc]

Hainan looks about 85%, considering it is low season, very good!

 

[ethanegcc]

Goa, Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad also see great increases and Qatar is up by 16%.

 

[Land23R]

And what about SIN-MAN and IAH-MAN?

Not checked the calendar with days of operation, but it should be at least 21 flights each way or 42 sectors (which will be shared with pax flying IAH-SIN and return but not included in the figures presumably).

Will have a closer look tomorrow. At first glance it appears to be some of the popular destinations in Spain and other short haul to Amsterdam, Paris, Milan, Berlin and the new route to Nuremburg for example which gave such an overall impressive percentage increase, which is not really a surprise. FRA & MUC both down though.
As already noted, LAS and ISB were good increases on long haul but with the usual mixed results on the USA generally.

 

[Land23R]

David, thanks for that link by the way. But why does November not appear under Airport data when you access the main CAA stats page?

 

[David_itl]

Anticipated FRA and MUC being down due to the Lufthansa strikes. Which means that if November sees no strikes, they should see a nice increase!

Got no idea why it's not listed on the main page so hazarded a guess by clicking an old link an sticking "11" in the URL and was a bit surprised to see it all on display.

 

[IanFarquharson]

CAA stats for October Manchester - Beijing 7564 - 36 flights makesit an average of 210 or just 71% load factor.
29% of seats to fill on a 10 hour journey is a lot to make up..
Cathay was around 85% in October so better than Hainan.

October 2016 AUH down 13%, Chicago down 14% same with Washington and we know how that ended. Miami -13%, Atlanta -3% and Newark -7%.

Chicago 8662 average 139 or 67%, PHL up 1% but 11415 average 184 again only 71%.

JFK was up 24% but quite a lot of capacity increase.

 

[Dobbo]

And what about SIN-MAN and IAH-MAN?

Not checked the calendar with days of operation, but it should be at least 21 flights each way or 42 sectors (which will be shared with pax flying IAH-SIN and return but not included in the figures presumably).

278 seats per plane.
42 sectors in November 2016.
11,676 SQ capacity in November 2016.

5838 is 50% of the total capacity over MAN-SIN and MAN-IAH sector).

So MAN O&D passengers are probably filling around the 60% mark of total seat capacity, albeit there is clearly a major disparity between SIN and IAH performance.

Fag packet analysis at its best!

 

[Land23R]

Ian, just curious why you are now re-visiting the October stats (and emphasising some of the disappointing ones in what is not a peak month) when we are now assessing November's results. However, I accept that there is little value highlighting only the good figures while ignoring those that give rise for concern.

Incidentally, November's increase for MAN at 15.3% for Terminal pax exceeded that of nearly all major UK airports reported. Of the London airports not reported, I would think only LTN is likely to have a higher percentage increase, and I suppose BRS could.

 

[Dobbo]

US flights are difficult to assess at the end of the summer season. In some cases, the season ends sooner and that impacts the numbers. I will say that a number of MAN-US routes could be described as marginal and that is a concern.

Re Hainan, I think they used the A332 for some flights? Not a big difference, but probably pushes load closer towards the 80% mark.

Re Etihad, I think they were double daily B77W all winter last year and that is now split between B77W and A332. I suspect they were under yield pressure and also suspect the %age load is fairly high.

 

[Land23R]

A good point Dobbo about the use of smaller a/c. and the effect on LFs. Difficult to know what to read into the switches of a/c though. Are airlines simply being more astute at matching capacity with demand at certain times of the year, or does it reflect a more general fall off in demand? The use of the A332 by EY on the 21/22 flights over a longer period is perhaps more of a concern than HU using it on an ad hoc basis.

 

[Dobbo]

I don't think Etihad is a concern because the A332 is probably being used to increase load factors and drive up yield. The overall size of their business at MAN remains high.

I have no doubt that they could increase their gross numbers easily - but they would need to drop the price. It's a commercial balance for the airline.

If the MEB3 are (as rumoured) having a tough time Id love to see CX or SQ take a bite out of their business. Even 5% across the board (over 13,000 passengers per month) would revolutionise their services from MAN.

 

[Land23R]

Re SQ, because of the way the non-op days fall, I make it 43 sectors for both SIN and IAH.
That works out at an average load of 111 for MAN-SIN/SIN-MAN and 54 for MAN-IAH/IAH-MAN.

On a 50/50 split, SIN would be a 80% LF and IAH 39%.

If all CX flights operated (I need to check this), the LF drops just below 80% compared to 81% the previous November.

 

[Land23R]

Hainan: Does anyone know how many flights were on the A332?

A full month (34 flights) of the 292 seat A333 gives a LF of 67% in November. On the 222 seat A332, it would be 88%. The average load was 195 assuming all flights operated.

 

[Aceshigh]

I would have thought that figure for IAH from a standing start in Autumn is pretty good ?

 

[Land23R]

UNITED (try again as I made a mess of trying to move the post from diversions and delays thread)
In Nov. 2015, UA achieved an excellent LF of 98.5% on EWR. In Nov. 2016, they have gone one better and achieved a somewhat remarkable 101%. That is based on a total capacity from 60 sectors with 169 seats on their B757 International version.

The pax figure given of 10,243 exceeds the capacity by 103.

So, did UA use larger a/c on occasions, or a different version of the B757?
or, were there any other flights to EWR?
or, if babies are counted but not taking up seats, were there more than 103 of them?
or, are the CAA stats just wrong?

 

[andyc941]

Hainan: Does anyone know how many flights were on the A332?
.

Just been through the MAN Highlights and three flights were A332s.