Potential Routes

[TheLocalYokel]

Can you explain why Scotland and Northern Ireland should be different?

Northern Ireland currently levies no APD on direct long haul flights (ie over 2,000 miles). Indirect long haul flights (as is the case with say, CWL-AMS-LAX) attract the UK long haul rate as do short haul routes from NI.

NI was originally given a dispensation by Westminster re direct long haul to try to compete with Dublin.

Scotland is proposing a 50% reduction in APD when it receives APD powers with a long term aim of abolition.

Neither it nor Northern Ireland can afford to abolish all APD at present.

 

[Jerry]

Put it this way. Tesco builds its supermarket smack bang in the heart of a city with a paid car park. Naturally, it gets lots of custom as there is lots of footfall. Sainsburys then builds its supermarket in the edge of the city, in a less populous area. Naturally, it's footfall is less. It applies to the government to subsidise a drop in its prices by 25%, as well as offer free parking. The customer then come flooding to that supermarket, even if it's going well out of their way. Tell me, is that fair business?

Sainsbury's still has the ability to change it's prices and products to attract more business or attract the business that Tesco is taking away from it out of it's area and is business actually fair?

Listen, I am Welsh born and bread. This isn't about Wales as a country at all. It's about South Wales. No, actually, this is about a very centralised area in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport as the benefactors of this. This does not benefit mid Wales and upwards, as those passengers do not use Cardiff airport, and thanks to geography and infrastructure, are unlikely to.

Actually it does benefit Wales as a whole. Having a direct flight link from places like the USA will promote Wales as a whole for tourism and business as an airport based in Wales advertises Wales as the destination that doesn't happen when the flight goes to Bristol or Heathrow or Manchester, people wouldn't describe Heathrow as access to Scotland yet for people in the Highlands it's just as easy to fly internationally via LHR as EDI. A recent video that i posted promoted Wales to the US and it was set in Caernarfon and not once did it differentiate between North and South. Yes there is geographical barriers but people do tend to look out of their local area for things like long haul flights and the Welsh are a good example of that.
Wales is a country in it's own right and yes it's part of the UK but many countries have a more federal system with more state/regional governments which benefit the local areas more and they can control things like taxes, being run by London hasn't benefited Wales.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

This isn't about Wales as a country at all. It's about South Wales. No, actually, this is about a very centralised area in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport as the benefactors of this. This does not benefit mid Wales and upwards, as those passengers do not use Cardiff airport, and thanks to geography and infrastructure, are unlikely to.
It's a blatant lie that this will benefit all of Wales, but thanks to media, Is probably a lie a lot of people are swallowing.

Newtown - MAN-1h44m / BHX-2h33m / CWL-2h33m
Aberystwyth - MAN-3h11m / BHX-3h27m / CWL- 2h36m
Bangor - MAN 1hr33m / BHX 2h47m / CWL 4h26m

I have to disagree that it's just about South East Wales. Whilst that is where most of the Welsh population and much of the Business is, the Airport is key to most of South Wales and many parts of central/mid wales. Whilst it's very common for people of Mid and North Wales to favour BHX and MAN, it's likely because there's more choice rather than proximity. Above are the drive times (according to Google maps). Obviously other parts of North East Wales will definitely be closer and more attractive to MAN/BHX, but that's just the geography. Some people in Northern England may favour Scottish Airports over Newcastle. It doesn't mean they aren't part of the potential catchment.
It would not only benefit business, but the Tourism factor could be huge. Wales is a growing Tourist market and becoming more known around the world. Whilst Cardiff as the Capital would play a part in that, West, mid and North Wales are beautiful parts of the world that should play a key role in Welsh Tourism.

Lets not forget there is a route between North and South Wales which is there to open the North Wales catchment to options from a South Wales Airport. Now that BE are selling the route with Eastern operating, it would be good to see better use of the route to open up options for those in North Wales to fly to CWL and connect to CWL's routes, A la QR and BE, even VY and charters. For some people it may be more appealing to fly VLY-CWL if they live near VLY, than do the drive to MAN.
Similarly if CWL think big and work well with the Airlines, a long haul Airline team up with BE could work out well for all. BE codeshare on flight from CWL to GLA/EDI/DUB, but why can't that be done in reverse? Yes, you'll never get the numbers coming into CWL to connect than you will starting at CWL. But routes like VLY BHD and NCL/ABZ that have regular frequencies, and even some of the bigger Airports. If the price is right or the right booking platform is used then the routes could work.

We talk about DY/WSJ/WOW etc and their connectivity in North America, but they don't have much connectivity within Europe. This of course could be mirrored by EZY at BRS with a much bigger network, but I think BE would be a much better fit as they already codeshare with a number of Airlines.

 

[User001]

Let me put it another way then Jerry.

Yes, Sainsburys does have the ability and power to charge lower prices, and they do, but, it does not have the power to eliminate VAT on its own products. So, they apply to government to abolish VAT in that supermarket only, while the Tesco still has to charge it. Do you still think that would be a 'fair playing field'? If you were the manager of that Tesco store, would you honestly sit then and say 'well, all is fair in love and war'? I honestly don't think you would.

Let me go further, if it was Bristol, and Bristol only attempting to get an APD cut, would you still be saying that it's fair, and would not be adversely affecting Cardiff? Again, I really don't think you would.

---------------------

In terms of promoting Wales, and trying to convince me that this APD cut isn't just to benefit Cardiff airport, maybe you could enlighten me as to why the Welsh Tourist board refuses to work with English airports to promote Wales.

Notably, Manchester has, on several occasions, tried to include North Wales (Snowdonia and the coast in particular) in its marketing campaigns and showcase the area to the world (San Fransisco, Seattle and Beijing have been key targets). Each time, the Welsh tourism board, based in Cardiff, has stubbornly refused to co-operate, instead trying to promote Cardiff airport. If you think Cardiff airport is the best airport to access Snowdonia, then you need your head testing!

 

[User001]

Newtown - MAN-1h44m / BHX-2h33m / CWL-2h33m
Aberystwyth - MAN-3h11m / BHX-3h27m / CWL- 2h36m
Bangor - MAN 1hr33m / BHX 2h47m / CWL 4h26m

I have to disagree that it's just about South East Wales. Whilst that is where most of the Welsh population and much of the Business is, the Airport is key to most of South Wales and many parts of central/mid wales. Whilst it's very common for people of Mid and North Wales to favour BHX and MAN, it's likely because there's more choice rather than proximity. Above are the drive times (according to Google maps). Obviously other parts of North East Wales will definitely be closer and more attractive to MAN/BHX, but that's just the geography. Some people in Northern England may favour Scottish Airports over Newcastle. It doesn't mean they aren't part of the potential catchment.
It would not only benefit business, but the Tourism factor could be huge. Wales is a growing Tourist market and becoming more known around the world. Whilst Cardiff as the Capital would play a part in that, West, mid and North Wales are beautiful parts of the world that should play a key role in Welsh Tourism.

I think you have actually proven my point.

Newtown-MAN is closer by nearly an hour
Bangor-shall we even go there!
Aberystwyth-Google maps gave me a MAN route of 2h44 in usual traffic, so 10 minutes off the Cardiff is neither here nor there really.

So again, it seems Cardiff is a mainly southern access point rather than 'all of Wales'. I stand by my assertion that the APD cut is to benefit the small pocket of South Wales only. There's nothing wrong with that per se, but let's not dress it up and claim it in the 'national interest', it's really not.

Lets not forget there is a route between North and South Wales which is there to open the North Wales catchment to options from a South Wales Airport. Now that BE are selling the route with Eastern operating, it would be good to see better use of the route to open up options for those in North Wales to fly to CWL and connect to CWL's routes, A la QR and BE, even VY and charters. For some people it may be more appealing to fly VLY-CWL if they live near VLY, than do the drive to MAN.

You do realise the population centre around Valley is tiny in comparason. Once you step foot off Anglesey, then a journey to Valley, a flight, and then waiting for what is, let's face it, a limited connection bank, means that MAN and LPL would still be the preffered option at this point.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I'm not saying CWL is going to turn into the next DXB. But I can't see why a very small percentage wouldn't use VYL-CWL to connect to CWL's flights. Likewise I have no doubt that most would choose BHX and MAN over CWL, but again a small percentage would use CWL. Many people in South Wales use all sorts of Airports around the UK if the price is right. Friends of mine recently used LTN to get to Majorca because it was the cheapest option. They live in Cardiff and did the 4 hour drive to LTN to use a route with countless frequencies from CWL, BRS, EXT and BHX.

I certainly don't disagree with the APD comments being an unfair advantage. I think some members on here are using their hearts and loyalty to CWL over their heads. But at the same time, APD isn't just about cheaper flights. It's about securing jobs and growing the Welsh economy, which the WG are clearly going to be biased on.
But if English communities were so bothered by unfair funding, why hasn't there been uproar about the extra EU funding Wales has had over other parts of the country?
Why hasn't the Bristol region been up in arms about the tolls going? If anything it's going to make business in South Wales more appealing, home buying opportunities are already being seen in the South East Wales region because prices are cheaper. People are willing to leave Bristol to move to South East Wales and commute.

The issue as I see it, is BRS is well ahead of the game. The Airport has grown incredibly over recent years and is continuing on a similar pattern. The projection is for 10m (Currently 8m) which growth to 20m in the future. The question needs to be asked, where are these passengers coming from? Bristol has grown from 6m to 8m in 4 years, and another 2m to come by 2020, yet CWL has dropped from 2m 10 years ago to around a million, and only managed to get back up to 1.4m in recent years.
For those CWL supporters it is sad to see, but it's business. CWL lost out, it had a bad run. The WG are trying to turn that around and eventually sell it on as a going concern. Eventually I hope it makes a good return for the WG and the new owners will put some real investment into it, and CWL can get a slice of these new 10m passengers that are projected to appear in BRS. I've no doubt that more than 20% of BRS passengers are likely to be Welsh. That 20% is also not far off what CWL currently handles alone.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

But if English communities were so bothered by unfair funding, why hasn't there been uproar about the extra EU funding Wales has had over other parts of the country?Why hasn't the Bristol region been up in arms about the tolls going? If anything it's going to make business in South Wales more appealing, home buying opportunities are already being seen in the South East Wales region because prices are cheaper. People are willing to leave Bristol to move to South East Wales and commute.

There has been a lot of disquiet about the Barnett Formula that provides for increased UK Treasury funding per capita to Scotland and Wales over England. Politicians, business people and the 'thinking and chattering classes' around England have not kept their thoughts to themselves in recent years. The 'ordinary' man/woman in the street in England is unaware for the most part but if you asked them a direct question as to whether Wales and Scotland should get a bigger slice of UK funding than England (per person) most would say they should not.

It's the same with APD in Wales. Most people in the street aren't interested in aviation for its own sake and APD isn't something they give much thought to but, again, if they were asked whether it should be devolved most would say it should, especially if it led to cheaper fares. I don't see the general public in Wales 'up in arms' over this anymore than those in England are regarding the Barnett Formula.

The Westminster block grant to the Wales Government is funded by tax payers from across the UK and it's somewhat ironic that Bristol is a particular contributor to the UK Treasury money box and so indirectly to the Wales block grant.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/liam-fox-held-first-board-622667

A spokesman for the Department for International Trade said the Secretary of State wanted to herald Bristol as a “major trading hub” given it is the only English city outside London to produce more money for the Treasury than it receives.

Removal of tolls will not only make South Wales more accessible to England, particularly the West Country, but vice versa, hence more business opportunities at both ends. The significant migration of people to South East Wales from the Bristol area looking for cheaper homes is mirrored by people moving to the Bristol area from the London area which puts up house prices in Bristol further and in turn increase house prices in South East Wales. Commuting to Bristol from the west and commuting from Bristol to the east is growing by the day. The only real losers are those looking for affordable homes.

The issue as I see it, is BRS is well ahead of the game. The Airport has grown incredibly over recent years and is continuing on a similar pattern. The projection is for 10m (Currently 8m) which growth to 20m in the future. The question needs to be asked, where are these passengers coming from? Bristol has grown from 6m to 8m in 4 years, and another 2m to come by 2020, yet CWL has dropped from 2m 10 years ago to around a million, and only managed to get back up to 1.4m in recent years.


For those CWL supporters it is sad to see, but it's business. CWL lost out, it had a bad run. The WG are trying to turn that around and eventually sell it on as a going concern. Eventually I hope it makes a good return for the WG and the new owners will put some real investment into it, and CWL can get a slice of these new 10m passengers that are projected to appear in BRS. I've no doubt that more than 20% of BRS passengers are likely to be Welsh. That 20% is also not far off what CWL currently handles alone.

You are right about the 20%. The last CAA passenger survey that included CWL and BRS was in 2015 when 1.234 million passengers with origin or final destination in Wales used BRS - 19.5% of the airport's total. Devon/Cornwall saw a million but most of the rest were from nearer BRS's core catchment. 35,000 from the South West used CWL that year.

In 2015 983,000 'Welsh' passengers used MAN, 280,000 BHX and 226,000 LPL. 1.2 million used LHR and LGW combined with 5 million South West passengers using those London airports.

Incidentally, the CAA did a passenger survey in 2008 that included CWL and BRS. Even then 781,000 used BRS despite it being CWL's second best ever year with just under 2 mppa.

The last thing I read on the subject was that the WG - at least the current administration - had decided to retain a controlling interest in CWL whilst looking for a private sector partner.

 

[Jerry]

Yes, Sainsburys does have the ability and power to charge lower prices, and they do, but, it does not have the power to eliminate VAT on its own products.

But it does have the ability to take away the cost of VAT from it's customers out of it's own finances which devolving APD would essentially be for Wales as the money would be taken from the block grant.

Let me go further, if it was Bristol, and Bristol only attempting to get an APD cut, would you still be saying that it's fair, and would not be adversely affecting Cardiff? Again, I really don't think you would.

I would ask why Wales isn't getting the ability to cut it just like Scotland has the will have the ability but yes you could say it wasn't fair but sorry life isn't always fair, but would the effect on Cardiff be any bigger than the effect BRS has on CWL not by much.

In terms of promoting Wales, and trying to convince me that this APD cut isn't just to benefit Cardiff airport, maybe you could enlighten me as to why the Welsh Tourist board refuses to work with English airports to promote Wales.

Why would Visit Wales promote airports outside of Wales? There job is too promote travelling to Wales not England.

If you think Cardiff airport is the best airport to access Snowdonia, then you need your head testing!

Considering Cardiff has 2 daily flights to North West Wales then yes and again Snowdonia is in Wales it's not unreasonable for Visit Wales to want to promote via an access point in Wales and not another country.

 

[Jerry]

MCO should be the real target in the short term with TCX,

The only thing about TCX that would make me cautious is that their fleet seems to be tied up mostly at MAN so i would wonder where they would get the extra aircraft from to operate more flights from airports like CWL.

 

[User001]

But it does have the ability to take away the cost of VAT from it's customers out of it's own finances which devolving APD would essentially be for Wales as the money would be taken from the block grant.

Its allowed to discount but it's not allowed to discount under the guise of eliminating VAT prices for the customer. But this also then opens 2 other questions:

-If this is your scenario, why isn't CWL doing that already?
-Sainsburys doesn't have a government grant or government owned, so, eats into profits rather than taxpayers money. There is a huge difference in your assertation of the scenario.

I would ask why Wales isn't getting the ability to cut it just like Scotland has the will have the ability but yes you could say it wasn't fair but sorry life isn't always fair, but would the effect on Cardiff be any bigger than the effect BRS has on CWL not by much.

So by saying 'Life isn't fair' your basically admitting and agreeing that it isn't fair playing field. BRS has affected CWL based purely on commercial enterprise, CWL is attempting to gain the upper hand by government and taxpayer intervention. Again, there is a huge difference. I'm sure any business could seem successful if it had taxpayer backing, the proof in the pudding is standing on your own 2 feet.....

Why would Visit Wales promote airports outside of Wales? There job is too promote travelling to Wales not England.

I think you have missed the point entirely here. Visit Wales job is to promote Wales, and Manchester airport gave them an oppertunity to promote North Wales to the world via its long haul network, but they declined. Whether you want to admit it or not, Manchester (and Liverpool) are the local airports for North Wales, not Cardiff. The best way to get to Snowdonia, Anglesey and the coast is via those 2 airports. Therefore, why shouldn't MAN (and LPL) be able to promote that?

Again, it boils down to this perceived and nonsensical notion that APD cuts benefit all of Wales. These campaigns had the perfect oppertunity to benefit North Wales, but Cardiff screwed North Wales over on that one, and it's all down to national pride rather than any kind of business sense. Cutting your nose to spite your face springs to mind.

Considering Cardiff has 2 daily flights to North West Wales then yes and again Snowdonia is in Wales it's not unreasonable for Visit Wales to want to promote via an access point in Wales and not another country.

I'm sorry but you cannot even begin to convince me CWL is the better access point for Snowdonia based on 2 daily Jetstream 31 flights to a tiny airfield (RAF base really) over the English airports down the road.

If you think you have more chance of convincing someone to travel say, PEK-AMS-CWL-VLY (on likely seperate tickets too) over a direct PEK-MAN, I have even less hope for this Welsh autonomous state. I do feel emotion is playing too big a part in the debate rather than sense and sensibility.

Im sorry if the above sounds a bit argumentative, but I feel these APD are going to be slightly emotive over the years to come, and as a North Wales born national, it pains me to see that yet again the north gets shafted while the South gets to eat it's cake again, but claims its in the national interest. A bit like how North Wales was denied electrification of the railway line (despite actually having electric rolling stock ready to serve the line in accordance with the west coast franchise but being dragged by a diesel loco at the time), and the excuse given was 'Cardiff needs to be the priority'. To this day Virgin is required to keep class 221 voyagers purely to serve North a Wales despite wanting to move to an all pe domino fleet.

But anyway, I digress.....

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

The only reason APD hasn't been devolved to Wales is due to BRS local politicians being more vocal against it in Westminster than CWL local politicians being for it.

There will be a detrimental impact for BRS if APD is devolved and reduced in Wales and that is a fact that everyone should be able to acknowledge.

Competition at airports among airlines brings down ticket fares and it can be argued that Welsh passengers are being penalized for using Cardiff Airport. The fact that Cardiff Airport has a small catchment with little competition among airlines that a flights on the same day to the same resort with the same airline/operator leads you to be penalized for where your from.

APD will never be devolved while local MP's of Cardiff Airport are more concerned about their job progression rather than actually looking at what is best for their local constituents. It is mad when you have all local AM's saying APD should be devolved then the MP's saying it shouldn't. When you have Liam Fox and Bristol Airport being so vocal against it being devolved then there will only be one winner.

 

[Jerry]

If this is your scenario, why isn't CWL doing that already?

Considering that Wales doesn't have control of APD they can't. The only other way would be a massive cash subsidy which i'm not sure they would be allowed to do under EU laws.

CWL is attempting to gain the upper hand by government and taxpayer intervention.

That is the difference CWL isn't trying to get an upper hand it's just levelling the field a bit a bit more. In the end BRS will always be the dominant airport in the area and will always have advantages over CWL.

I'm sorry but you cannot even begin to convince me CWL is the better access point for Snowdonia based on 2 daily Jetstream 31 flights to a tiny airfield (RAF base really) over the English airports down the road.

It's still access and if it can be promoted then it could increase the amount of daily flights to North Wales and maybe in the long run the welsh government could also add Hawarden. The bulk of people from North Wales would continue to use MAN, LPL and BHX but they should still be giving the option of using CWL and also better connections to South Wales.

I have even less hope for this Welsh autonomous state. I do feel emotion is playing too big a part in the debate rather than sense and sensibility.

I do think one part of the debate with over APD will always be emotive because part of it is always going to be linked towards Wales getting more powers and becoming more self governing as a nation and how that will benefit the various parts of the country and some people will agree with that and some won't.

 

[User001]

Considering that Wales doesn't have control of APD they can't. The only other way would be a massive cash subsidy which i'm not sure they would be allowed to do under EU laws.

But shops don't have control of VAT but you suggested they discount to the equivilent of VAT to gain a competative edge....

That is the difference CWL isn't trying to get an upper hand it's just levelling the field a bit a bit more. In the end BRS will always be the dominant airport in the area and will always have advantages over CWL.

But that's the whole point, it's not levelling the playing field, is it? It's tipping the field towards CWL. The current scenario is a level playing field. That is both airports attracting routes via the same means. Both airports playing off their local strengths, both playing off their current links.

By reducing APD, Cardiff is gaining an upper hand in that it will be able to charge less for an airline ticket than BRS will ever be allowed to do. That is not a level playing field, at all.

Let's put it back into a scenario again. You and a mate set up a business, both in the same area, both selling the same thing that require VAT to be charged. Your mate gets a government mandate to say that he doesn't have to charge VAT, but you have to keep it, and you can't appeal. He gains lots of custom due to the lack of VAT, you loose out as you can't match his prices due to that lack of VAT, and go out of Business. Honestly, would you sit there, bankrupt and seeing him in his mansion loving life and say 'it's ok, we both had a level playing field'. Would you hell as like!

It's still access and if it can be promoted then it could increase the amount of daily flights to North Wales and maybe in the long run the welsh government could also add Hawarden. The bulk of people from North Wales would continue to use MAN, LPL and BHX but they should still be giving the option of using CWL and also better connections to South Wales.

But who are these people in North a Wales that are going to go 3-4 hours out of their way for a flight? Cardiff is not a local airport for North Wales. You also didn't answer my question about the Welsh Tourist board refusing to work with English Airports, in that any access to get to North Wales is surely worth exploring rather than a futile attempt to get 'all people visiting Wales to use Cardiff'.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

By reducing APD, Cardiff is gaining an upper hand in that it will be able to charge less for an airline ticket than BRS will ever be allowed to do. That is not a level playing field, at all.

It can be argued that that on many routes the devolution of APD will actually level the playing field by bringing the prices in line with those prices from Bristol.

As I mentioned previously the fact that Cardiff has a small catchment area then it can be argued that South Walians are penalized for living in such an area and are forced to pay higher fares because there is a lack of competition.

 

[User001]

It can't be argued really, but, in the interest of not derailing this thread to proon levels, I'll leave it there because neither side is going to agree on this.

 

[Jerry]

It can't be argued really, but, in the interest of not derailing this thread to proon levels, I'll leave it there because neither side is going to agree on this.

Yep i think we will have to agree to disagree on this.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

The APD debate is a contentious one.

The UK Government but a rod for its own back devolving it to other administrations.

BRS has nothing to worry about While conservatives are in power.

Liam Fox doesn't want it devolved and odly enough neither does Alun Cairns.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The APD debate is a contentious one.

The UK Government but a rod for its own back devolving it to other administrations.

BRS has nothing to worry about While conservatives are in power.

Liam Fox doesn't want it devolved and odly enough neither does Alun Cairns.

I'd thought the same about the Conservatives but in fact the most vociferous local Westminster opponent of devolution of the tax is Karin Smyth, Labour MP for Bristol South, whose constituency is the nearest city one to the airport with a lot of airport employees residing there.

Had Labour been tasked with forming the UK government following the last general election they might well have had to turn to the Scots Nats and Plaid Cymru to help with a coalition administration. Further devolution would undoubtedly have been part of the price demanded by the SN and PC, including APD to Wales.

Bristol itself is not popular with the Conservative government despite being something of a cash cow to the Treasury - it has four Labour MPs and a Labour elected-mayor. The airport though sits in North Somerset which is part of the huge (though not quite as huge as it was) Tory South-West heartland.

 

[Jerry]

Easyjet Switzerland Geneva begins December 2018 was added to the Cardiff Airport Wikipedia page and taken down twice.I know it's wiki but it seems oddly specific to me. Definitely one to keep an eye on as an Easyjet route would be a big coup for the airport. Credit to WAF for the info.

 

[Red Flyer]

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/first-minister-say-long-haul-13871788