Cardiff: Route Development & Rumours

[Jerry]

I'd hope CWL would have made them a pitch especially as they seem interested in not just transatlantic but the holiday short haul as well so could give CWL a boost though they would be a virtual unknown down here so would require a lot of advertising but Vueling were in the same situation a couple of years ago and they've built up a decent network. As for transatlantic i think at the moment getting a carrier to operate a weekly Orlando may well be the airports priority at the moment.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I'd hope CWL would have made them a pitch especially as they seem interested in not just transatlantic but the holiday short haul as well so could give CWL a boost though they would be a virtual unknown down here so would require a lot of advertising but Vueling were in the same situation a couple of years ago and they've built up a decent network. As for transatlantic i think at the moment getting a carrier to operate a weekly Orlando may well be the airports priority at the moment.

I'd have thought that Primera would be a better bet (although Orlando might be more achievable in the short term) given that the Welsh Government is justifying its expenditure on CWL by saying it will be a catalyst to boost the Welsh economy. Orlando will only take local holidaymakers to the USA to spend their money there, whereas Primera to NYC would be a more frequent service and would bring American tourists and business people to Wales to spend their money and hopefully invest in some cases.

 

[Jerry]

I'd have thought that Primera would be a better bet (although Orlando might be more achievable in the short term) given that the Welsh Government is justifying its expenditure on CWL by saying it will be a catalyst to boost the Welsh economy. Orlando will only take local holidaymakers to the USA to spend their money there, whereas Primera to NYC would be a more frequent service and would bring American tourists and business people to Wales to spend their money and hopefully invest in some cases.

Yes NYC would have more of a benefit for Wales then Orlando but at the moment i'd say Orlando would be more achievable and for an airline less of a risk as it has more of a recent proven history. There is a post on the other forum that says that Norwegian are to launch another MAX route soon as well as a long haul route from Gatwick so it will be interesting to see where they operate the MAX route from.

 

[Jerry]

Cardiff to Naples is Skyscanner's Unserved Route of the Week with 20,000 annual searches.
Next Italian destination for Flybe maybe? Or would even TUI consider a weekly service? Other options from the Naples end would be Easyjet it's biggest carrier or Ryanair it's second biggest carrier.
http://www.anna.aero/2017/12/13/car...ail&utm_term=0_ecdbf41674-c9b9c4876a-86828221

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Cardiff to Naples is Skyscanner's Unserved Route of the Week with 20,000 annual searches.
Next Italian destination for Flybe maybe? Or would even TUI consider a weekly service? Other options from the Naples end would be Easyjet it's biggest carrier or Ryanair it's second biggest carrier.
http://www.anna.aero/2017/12/13/car...ail&utm_term=0_ecdbf41674-c9b9c4876a-86828221

Would be a summer-only service probably, like the easyJet and TUI Bristol routes. I wonder what percentage of these Unserved Route of the Week exercises actually come to fruition. I remember back a while Bristol-Zurich was featured with 60,000 annual searches but no carrier has taken it up. I'd have thought that Flybe would be the most likely if anyone started a CWL-NAP route.

 

[Jerry]

Would be a summer-only service probably, like the easyJet and TUI Bristol routes. I wonder what percentage of these Unserved Route of the Week exercises actually come to fruition. I remember back a while Bristol-Zurich was featured with 60,000 annual searches but no carrier has taken it up. I'd have thought that Flybe would be the most likely if anyone started a CWL-NAP route.

I also wonder how if they launched Naples how it would effect it's Rome route as it's possible many will use that to get to Naples from Cardiff. It was also interesting to note that BRS came last in the leakage of people to other airports for this route. LGW 49%, MAN 16%, LTN 14%, STN 12% and BRS 9%.
I'd be surprised if Naples wasn't on the airports and Flybe's list of potential's but i do think maybe not at the top. I'd guess that maybe routes like Nice or Prague or Krakow or maybe even Warsaw may be more of a priority for the airport than Naples.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I also wonder how if they launched Naples how it would effect it's Rome route as it's possible many will use that to get to Naples from Cardiff. It was also interesting to note that BRS came last in the leakage of people to other airports for this route. LGW 49%, MAN 16%, LTN 14%, STN 12% and BRS 9%.
I'd be surprised if Naples wasn't on the airports and Flybe's list of potential's but i do think maybe not at the top. I'd guess that maybe routes like Nice or Prague or Krakow or maybe even Warsaw may be more of a priority for the airport than Naples.

BRS is summer-only with fewer weekly rotations (3 with easyJet and two with TUI) than these other airports too. CAA stats show that in 2016 LGW had 444,000 on NAP, STN 166,000, MAN, 87,000, LTN 83,000 and BRS 35,000.

Although BRS seems to be the provincial airport blamed the most for 'taking' Wales's passengers the latest CAA passenger survey (for 2016 and doesn't include CWL or BRS) shows that 914,000 passengers with origin/final destination in Wales used MAN that year. 290,000 used BHX and 232,000 used LPL.

Flybe is certainly on the prowl for more routes at CWL but if it wants to do so significantly it will need to look at basing another aircraft, perhaps in 2019.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Just checked the route shop and it doesn't appear that Naples is a priority for Cardiff Airport. I have to say that it hasn't been updated for a while as Rome is still listed as an unserved route.

Currently listed except for Rome are as follows;

Abu Dhabi
Athens
Dubai
Istanbul
New York
Orlando
Toronto

I personally believe now that Cardiff has Milan, Verona, Rome and Venice on their route network then Naples is the next Italian route that they will be targeting. I believe that Flybe is the most likely candidate to operate the route as Tui wouldn't want to take the passengers away from Bristol.

Flybe would need to expand further however before this route is served then we could speculate the further additional routes we are likely to see.

 

[Jerry]

For them to include Naples without cutting current routes then they would need to base a 4th aircraft or possibly have other bases like EDI or BHD or JER takeover some of the routes or flights with away based aircraft. 2019 will be an interesting year for Flybe at CWL.

 

[Jerry]

I recently had a conversation on the other forum partly about whether Cardiff could sustain 2 carriers on Vuelings routes especially if that carrier was Ryanair. The replies weren't that positive about the possibilty! So i decided to have a look at the amount of weekly flights CWL used to sustain on 3 routes PMI, ALC and AGP for all carriers and compare it to what is on sale for 2018. I picked the first week of August in 2009 when the airport had started it's decline i numbers and the passenger numbers for the year was 1.6 million which the airport should get close to again in 2018. In 2009 the aircraft used were a mix of 733s, 738s, 757s and A321s. In 2018 it will be a mix of A320s and 738s.

PMI 2009 13 weekly 2018 12 weekly -1 weekly flight
AGP 2009 12 weekly 2018 7 weekly -5 weekly flights
ALC 2009 10 weekly 2018 7 weekly -3 weekly flights

So there could be potential for another airline to co inhabit on those routes whether in the future it be Ryanair, Norwegian or Jet2.

I also noticed that routes like Murcia, Girona, Sharm el Sheikh, Malta and Fuerteventura were also served. With TCX and TUI looking at Turkey and Egypt again then possibly CWL could get Bodrum and Sharm el Sheikh back in the future.

 

[Silvercity]

I seem to remember someone posting that Cardiff were chasing a New York link?

If so this may be interesting.

Primera also plans to fly from Stansted and Birmingham to Spain and plans more UK bases.

http://impactpub.com.au/micebtn/85-...ansatlantic-flights-will-use-primary-airports

If I had a wish list for Liverpool, the only long haul destination that I think there should be is New York. The city has historic links and of course there is a huge Beetles interest. Now these airlines with smaller long haul aircraft might be the key, companies like Primera might be interested.

 

[Jerry]

If I had a wish list for Liverpool, the only long haul destination that I think there should be is New York. The city has historic links and of course there is a huge Beetles interest. Now these airlines with smaller long haul aircraft might be the key, companies like Primera might be interested.

Cities like Liverpool could be an alternative for an airline like Primera in the long term. I'd also not underestimate the appeal of Liverpool football club in the US and as a draw for such a flight. As for Cardiff i do hope one day they could attract an NYC link and an Orlando flight!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I recently had a conversation on the other forum partly about whether Cardiff could sustain 2 carriers on Vuelings routes especially if that carrier was Ryanair. The replies weren't that positive about the possibilty! So i decided to have a look at the amount of weekly flights CWL used to sustain on 3 routes PMI, ALC and AGP for all carriers and compare it to what is on sale for 2018. I picked the first week of August in 2009 when the airport had started it's decline i numbers and the passenger numbers for the year was 1.6 million which the airport should get close to again in 2018. In 2009 the aircraft used were a mix of 733s, 738s, 757s and A321s. In 2018 it will be a mix of A320s and 738s.

PMI 2009 13 weekly 2018 12 weekly -1 weekly flight
AGP 2009 12 weekly 2018 7 weekly -5 weekly flights
ALC 2009 10 weekly 2018 7 weekly -3 weekly flights

So there could be potential for another airline to co inhabit on those routes whether in the future it be Ryanair, Norwegian or Jet2.

I also noticed that routes like Murcia, Girona, Sharm el Sheikh, Malta and Fuerteventura were also served. With TCX and TUI looking at Turkey and Egypt again then possibly CWL could get Bodrum and Sharm el Sheikh back in the future.

Jerry, I know you picked on 2009 because of the 1.6 mppa which CWL may well get close to in 2018. However, 2009 was a particularly bad year for CWL when it lost over 350,000 annual passengers compared with 2008 (its second best ever year after 2007). 2009 to 2010 lost another 325,000 but after that the losses lessened each year until the recovery began.

I've looked at the annual passenger numbers for 2009 and 2008 for the routes you mentioned and compared them with 2016.

Palma - 169,000 in 2008; 110,000 in 2009; 109,000 in 2016
Malaga - 139,000; 116,000; 83,000
Alicante - 151,000; 109,000; 93,000
Murcia - 31,000; 22,000; nil
Girona - 8,000; 6,000; nil
Sharm - 22,000; 25000; nil
Malta - 8,000; 7,000; nil
Fuerteventura - 19,000; 21,000; 1,500

So looking at 2008 there is clearly scope for significant increases on a number of routes if the dynamics are roughly the same as then.

 

[Jerry]

Jerry, I know you picked on 2009 because of the 1.6 mppa which CWL may well get close to in 2018.

One of the reasons also that i forgot to mention was that i used South Wales Aviation Group records to count the flights on the sample week. They begin in 2007 but for some reason (maybe i was reading it wrong) didn't seem to include BMI's flights and i couldn't find their schedule for 2007, the first year that did was 2009 and of course the potential that CWL will get back to the 1.6 million mark was there as well for a comparison.
I know there are newer destinations on sale now from CWL for people to go on holiday and people have a lot more choice from both CWL and BRS and people's holiday habits do change but it does suggest that extra flights by a new airline or Vueling itself will sell. If i remember correctly Vueling usually do add some extra flights around February March time so hopefully we'll get to 6 or 7 weekly on AGP and ALC.
FUE is slightly weird as TUI seemed to launch a short programme but haven't bothered after that. I'd have thought that in winter it would be a good 1 weekly route. Maybe they feel the airport needs to get busier for it to be stable.
With Girona and Malta and maybe Murcia i do wonder in the long term if they could be possibilities for Flybe with TCX backing if the no one like FR looks at them.

 

[Silvercity]

Cities like Liverpool could be an alternative for an airline like Primera in the long term. I'd also not underestimate the appeal of Liverpool football club in the US and as a draw for such a flight. As for Cardiff i do hope one day they could attract an NYC link and an Orlando flight!

Yes I forget about the football draw, although I never knew that American's were as keen on soccer as they call it.

 

[Jerry]

Yes I forget about the football draw, although I never knew that American's were as keen on soccer as they call it.

It's a lot more popular than a lot of people think it is over there.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Yes I forget about the football draw, although I never knew that American's were as keen on soccer as they call it.

It's a lot more popular than a lot of people think it is over there.

I think youngsters play association football (to give it its proper name) in the USA. They don't need to be aspiring hulks that seems to be the norm for American Football (or just football in the USA?) and I believe 'soccer' is very popular with girls who play the game there too.

As these youngsters grow up many will take their interest in the game into adulthood, so top UK football clubs might well be an attraction for Americans to come and watch.

Rugby is also better known in the USA than perhaps some people here might think, so American rugby people might be attracted to the UK to watch games and Wales would undoubtedly be a major draw with this.

 

[Silvercity]

Interesting ! Well I'm sure the Management at LPL would know the cities selling point for a NYC route better than me. : -)

 

[Jerry]

Rugby is also better known in the USA than perhaps some people here might think, so American rugby people might be attracted to the UK to watch games and Wales would undoubtedly be a major draw with this.

Wales actually announced a couple of days ago they were going to play a match in the USA on their way to Argentina but not against the USA rugby team but against as yet unconfirmed team which i'm guessing will be Scotland as they will be playing the USA and Canada in the summer. Personally i'm hoping it will be on the West Coast but i'm guessing it will more than likely be New York or Philadelphia or Chicago.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-play-match-usa-against-14062859
Rugby is growing in the USA especially the 7s side of the game and the US 7s team is quite good. I know there is a 15 a side pro league starting again in April so hopefully that will last more than one season and give them a something to build on as their grassroots level is quite strong. The size of the country doesn't help and in some areas different sports are stronger than others.

As these youngsters grow up many will take their interest in the game into adulthood, so top UK football clubs might well be an attraction for Americans to come and watch.

They already are. The Premier League is very big over there and it also helps that they aren't restricted in what games they can watch on TV like over here.

 

[Jerry]

2018 and 2019 Predictions

Now that we are into 2018 i was wondering if anyone had any predictions for what may happen in the future at Cardiff.
Does anyone have any predictions on what routes will Flybe introduce in the future? Will they go to 4 based aircraft or make up extra flights with non based aircraft and what routes they could do that on? Also which routes they currently operate are the most likeliest to get frequency increases? Or could they take over a route from one of their partners? Newcastle maybe?

Will Thomas Cook eventually base one of their own aircraft instead of a 3rd party or increase the aircraft size to an A321? What new routes are they likely to introduce in the future? Tunisia maybe? Also will they return to operating long haul by bringing back Orlando and Cancun to complement TUI at BRS?

What are the predictions for TUI? Could we see a 757 again as the seasonal aircraft to provide an increase on the more popular routes? New routes, they've just introduced AYT, maybe there is the potential for Tunisia or maybe Italy or operate FUE all year round? Long haul wise would they introduce a new winter Caribbean route for the winter or just increase the frequencies on the current BGI and MJB routes? Or could we see routes launched for the summer?

With IAG will we see Vueling stick with their current frequencies or keep increasing the frequencies on their current routes? With the takeover of Niki what is the chance of them introducing German or Austrian routes maybe with a focus on ski routes? Will we ever see a base from them? And how will their partners Iberia Express fare on their short season for MAD and will they return for 2019? Another one that doesn't seem to get mentioned is BA Cityflyer, will we see them turn up at CWL maybe to complement the current Vueling routes and as the airport gets busier could we see the return of Aer Lingus in the long run?

With Ryanair could we see some more routes or some more frequencies on the current ones or just stagnation as they focus elsewhere? With BH Air will they add more frequencies to Burgas or look to introduce a new route like Varna or potentially partner with Flybe for the Adriatic? With Superbreak, where will they look at next with their one offs if they are successful? Xmas market breaks for the winter?

Also what's the potential for new airlines? With Primera at BHX could we see them in the future or maybe Virgin Atlantic for Orlando? Jet2? Also could we see Czech Airlines for Prague? Or maybe Meridiana/Air Italy at least codesharing with Flybe? Easyjet Switzerland as a possibility for Geneva in the future like at SOU and BOH maybe?

Passenger numbers wise where do people think the airport will be at in 2018 and then 2019?