Potential Routes

[TheLocalYokel]

Bloomin heck Jerry, that's a lot to get anyone's head around.

I'll have a go at one or two of the points you raise, the last one first. I think 2018 will see around 1.6 million passengers. I would not even take a punt at 2019 at this point in time as we have no idea what the airport's network/frequency will be like then.

TUI won't have many 757s in 2019 so I think that is a non-starter. Flybe is reducing its fleet size so it would be a significant sign for the airport if CWL went to four based aircraft. CWL has traditionally done well with long haul summer sun charters and therefore the present situation is a surprise. I would not bet against someone beginning a route or two in 2019.

Clearly if the airport is to reach that 3 mppa in a few years projected by the airport chairman a substantial low cost airline presence will be required. Who it turns out to be and when is really anyone's guess. Perhaps the two most likely are Jet2 or Ryanair but the industry never fails to surprise me so it could be someone else but I can't think who.

A number of things that you highlight can't be ruled out but which ones actually transpire is really something for the crystal ball.

What's your opinion on all this?

 

[Jerry]

With Flybe i do think a 4th based aircraft will come along in 2019 despite the fleet cutbacks as CWL has become an important base for Flybe and their are plenty of routes that it could look at in the future. I'm hoping they'll introduce a new route for Winter 2018/19 something like Prague maybe.
It is highly unlikely we'll see a 757 back at CWL but i wonder if when they arrive there is a slim chance of a MAX 10.

Long haul wise TUI in the summer is highly unlikely but maybe TCX or Virgin Atlantic or maybe a someone else might look at Orlando and the Caribbean.

I honestly don't expect anything from Ryanair now, with Monarchs collapse they seem to be focusing on filling the void at other airports. If Ryanair wanted to they could've launched flights from bases like AGP and PMI and MLA with the extra aircraft they added to those bases but choose not to. I think with 5th based aircraft and rumour of a 6th aircraft at BRS any interest there was in CWL has disappeared. LCC wise CWL will have to look to Vueling and hopefully try and attract Jet2 for 2019 or maybe a wildcard like Primera or Norwegian.
It will be an interesting year for CWL and hopefully at the end of it there will be new airlines with new routes lined up for 2019.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

To touch on a few points;
2018 - I can't see anything new coming, maybe the odd one off random charter as they seem to be growing slightly.

TCX - They seem content with the summer leases. They will likely be focusing now on filling the gaps left by Monarch and new ventures such as the Spanish base. I can't see an A321 coming to CWL unless CWL can pull a good deal. Maybe their own A320 metal though.

TUI - 757 will high unlikely not be returning to CWL based. As TYL says they are being phased out and are favoured at other Airports that still need their capacity and range. If anything CWL may see the odd extra W pattern flight or other carriers on behalf of TUI. Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt seem to be making a come back. Provided CWL can maintain the current routes where these passengers were displaced it could lead to a bit more. That being said some frequencies could well be reduced in favour of the above 3 returning.

VY - They seem to have bigger fish to try at the moment. Hopefully maybe an extra frequency or two, but I'm starting to think VY are more than comfortable staying as they are. I would've thought CWL is still performing very well for them.

Ski Routes - EZY GVA isn't a bad shout but I can't see it happening by diluting the BRS services. BE need to do work on ski routes to support the aircraft in the winter. BRS has a huge market but I get the feeling BE are missing a trick and maybe don't have the right tie ups. After taking on an Airline that was practically shut down, I can't see IAG wanting to expand into unknown markets.

BA Cityflyer - Never. They will grow at BRS. BRS is able to provide a more premium leisure passenger. It's only weekend work at the moment.

Ryanair - Already discussed to death

Now these aren't necessarily predictions, more my opinion on what could or should happen at CWL;

Primera - They are looking to grow in the UK, I think get the feeling they could be a force. VY turned up randomly and have done well out of CWL. The Southwest is an untouched market for both PF and DY, and i'm surprised hasn't been snapped up in some shape yet. I have no doubt that they would want a slice of the BRS market, but that restricts them to short haul. I'm not convinced DY or PF could operate transatlantic from BRS which I would've thought they would want to operate both short and long haul. Similarly BRS have stated they are being cautious with new operators and diluting yields. That puts CWL at a distinct advantage. Whether it's PF or DY I feel something is coming soon.

Jet2 - Already been discussed to death but again, missing a market in the Southwest. With BRS capacity issues I think CWL may be at the advantage here. TUI and TCX are booming in the Southwest (mainly at BRS) and why Jet2 don't want to step in and counter that yet I don't understand. The only issue with Jet2, although I do believe they'll bring passengers from over the bridge and even create new markets, I worry they may dilute other carriers, more TCX than TUI which could lead to retraction from South Wales.

Flybe - I feel Flybe is key to all other voids. Scheduled Spanish routes with lower demand (MJV, IBZ, MAH) Maybe another Italian or South of France route or Croatia. I don't know if a 4th aircraft is justified yet, or with some schedule swapping on the domestic routes operated by aircraft from other bases will free up the CWL based aircraft. Long term, yes, 4 or more aircraft. The only stumbling block is the long term plan for the Embraers. If BE had a bigger fleet of jets I think CWL would see some of these longer routes. But I think BE still don't know where these jets are best placed. A better winter and strong summer may help that case.

Ryanair - No base, but maybe one or two more routes. MLA, ACE, CHQ at a push. Any more offering from FR would likely be in addition to a route already operated at BRS with good performance.

Aside from that I can't see anything out of the ordinary. Passenger loads will 1.6m next year at a push. 1.8 in 2019 down to good performing current routes and some slight expansion in places.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

To touch on a few points;
2018 - I can't see anything new coming, maybe the odd one off random charter as they seem to be growing slightly.

TCX - They seem content with the summer leases. They will likely be focusing now on filling the gaps left by Monarch and new ventures such as the Spanish base. I can't see an A321 coming to CWL unless CWL can pull a good deal. Maybe their own A320 metal though.

TUI - 757 will high unlikely not be returning to CWL based. As TYL says they are being phased out and are favoured at other Airports that still need their capacity and range. If anything CWL may see the odd extra W pattern flight or other carriers on behalf of TUI. Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt seem to be making a come back. Provided CWL can maintain the current routes where these passengers were displaced it could lead to a bit more. That being said some frequencies could well be reduced in favour of the above 3 returning.

VY - They seem to have bigger fish to try at the moment. Hopefully maybe an extra frequency or two, but I'm starting to think VY are more than comfortable staying as they are. I would've thought CWL is still performing very well for them.

Ski Routes - EZY GVA isn't a bad shout but I can't see it happening by diluting the BRS services. BE need to do work on ski routes to support the aircraft in the winter. BRS has a huge market but I get the feeling BE are missing a trick and maybe don't have the right tie ups. After taking on an Airline that was practically shut down, I can't see IAG wanting to expand into unknown markets.

BA Cityflyer - Never. They will grow at BRS. BRS is able to provide a more premium leisure passenger. It's only weekend work at the moment.

Ryanair - Already discussed to death

Now these aren't necessarily predictions, more my opinion on what could or should happen at CWL;

Primera - They are looking to grow in the UK, I think get the feeling they could be a force. VY turned up randomly and have done well out of CWL. The Southwest is an untouched market for both PF and DY, and i'm surprised hasn't been snapped up in some shape yet. I have no doubt that they would want a slice of the BRS market, but that restricts them to short haul. I'm not convinced DY or PF could operate transatlantic from BRS which I would've thought they would want to operate both short and long haul. Similarly BRS have stated they are being cautious with new operators and diluting yields. That puts CWL at a distinct advantage. Whether it's PF or DY I feel something is coming soon.

Jet2 - Already been discussed to death but again, missing a market in the Southwest. With BRS capacity issues I think CWL may be at the advantage here. TUI and TCX are booming in the Southwest (mainly at BRS) and why Jet2 don't want to step in and counter that yet I don't understand. The only issue with Jet2, although I do believe they'll bring passengers from over the bridge and even create new markets, I worry they may dilute other carriers, more TCX than TUI which could lead to retraction from South Wales.

Flybe - I feel Flybe is key to all other voids. Scheduled Spanish routes with lower demand (MJV, IBZ, MAH) Maybe another Italian or South of France route or Croatia. I don't know if a 4th aircraft is justified yet, or with some schedule swapping on the domestic routes operated by aircraft from other bases will free up the CWL based aircraft. Long term, yes, 4 or more aircraft. The only stumbling block is the long term plan for the Embraers. If BE had a bigger fleet of jets I think CWL would see some of these longer routes. But I think BE still don't know where these jets are best placed. A better winter and strong summer may help that case.

Ryanair - No base, but maybe one or two more routes. MLA, ACE, CHQ at a push. Any more offering from FR would likely be in addition to a route already operated at BRS with good performance.

Aside from that I can't see anything out of the ordinary. Passenger loads will 1.6m next year at a push. 1.8 in 2019 down to good performing current routes and some slight expansion in places.

A very full and detailed analysis there, Foxlimayankee, with supporting 'evidence' too. It paints an accurate picture of where CWL is now and where, and particularly how, it might be in two or three years hence.

I think that the points you make about Jet2, Primera and Norwegian are particularly apposite. If Jet2 wants to come South West it might find a 'more welcoming' home at CWL given the avowed BRS preference for growth being left mainly in the hands of existing airlines. How far that will take them remains to be seen given that they are projecting 12 mppa by 2025.

I do wonder though how many passengers from the West Country would be tempted to use Jet2 given the historical reluctance of passengers to go west across the bridge compared with those who will travel east. I don't think that the scrapping of bridge tolls will be a factor because people from the so-called less prosperous Welsh side have never found the tolls a bar. Jet2 has taken out full-page adverts in the West Country edition of Metro pushing the airline's BHX routes.

It would be of great interest and education to know how many West Country passengers have booked with Jet2 at BHX (it would be slightly misleading in one sense though though because mid-Gloucestershire northwards is as convenient for BHX as it is for BRS and a relatively recent CAA survey found that 450,000 originating/final destination South West passengers already used BHX that year), and how many (inbound and outbound) have booked with Qatar at CWL and whether the number is above or below expectations. I doubt that we'll ever know except perhaps for generalised comments from the airline and/or airport.

I think you are right about there being doubts over the ability of Primera/Norwegian aircraft to use BRS for transatlantic. You say that Primera/Norwegian would want a slice of the BRS market. Qatar didn't seem to want it unless of course that too was an operational impediment as it might be with Primera/Norwegian.

At a recent BRS consultation drop-in I attended I was told that the future was the new generation of mid-sized airliners when it comes to long haul from BRS and the B787 was mentioned, as it is in the Issues and Options consultation document. The 787-8 might be fine although Qatar uses that type but the 737 MAX and 320/321 neo might well not be when it comes to long haul. So long haul scheduled at least might fall into CWL's lap by default whatever airlines might like to have done.

 

[Jerry]

Attracting passengers from the West Country will obviously be a key part of CWLs future. To do that CWL will need products that will be different from what is offered at BRS which it hasn't in the past. Why would people use CWL when they have generally either have the same or better offerings on their doorstep?
With Qatar they now have a product that BRS doesn't have that is unique to them and can draw people over the bridge. If they attract Norwegian, Primera or Jet2 then they could draw passengers over as well as depending on what they provide ie TATL or with Jet2 their holiday product as something different and which has proved extremely popular with people at BHX and STN and no doubt with people in South Wales and the West Country.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Attracting passengers from the West Country will obviously be a key part of CWLs future. To do that CWL will need products that will be different from what is offered at BRS which it hasn't in the past. Why would people use CWL when they have generally either have the same or better offerings on their doorstep?
With Qatar they now have a product that BRS doesn't have that is unique to them and can draw people over the bridge. If they attract Norwegian, Primera or Jet2 then they could draw passengers over as well as depending on what they provide ie TATL or with Jet2 their holiday product as something different and which has proved extremely popular with people at BHX and STN and no doubt with people in South Wales and the West Country.

I agree that Qatar and any scheduled routes to the USA (NYC is the obvious one) would be attractive to West Country travellers assuming nothing similar turned up at BRS.

I'm not so sure about Jet2 though. It hasn't really got a unique selling point over the likes of TUI and TCX at BRS. Of course some West Country travellers would use Jet2 at CWL, especially if timings or days of the week played a part, but the only way likely to get a significant number would be substantially lower fares. Otherwise why would the majority of West Country punters bother to travel to CWL when they have a similar product, and one with which they are familiar, at their local airport?

When bmi baby started up at CWL they initially offered unsustainably low fares which did attract some travellers from the West Country. The Bristol paper carried stories of people driving past Lulsgate to get to Rhoose to take advantage. Once the low fares ceased the flow largely stopped.

I think CWL would be better off trying to recapture its 'own' passengers who use airports in England. A Jet2 base would almost certainly play a part in that but I am doubtful that there would be huge numbers of West Country-based travellers flocking to Jet2 unless those low fares were offered, but Jet2 or any airline could not sustain them for long.

 

[Jerry]

I agree that Qatar and any scheduled routes to the USA (NYC is the obvious one) would be attractive to West Country travellers assuming nothing similar turned up at BRS.

I'm not so sure about Jet2 though. It hasn't really got a unique selling point over the likes of TUI and TCX at BRS. Of course some West Country travellers would use Jet2 at CWL, especially if timings or days of the week played a part, but the only way likely to get a significant number would be substantially lower fares. Otherwise why would the majority of West Country punters bother to travel to CWL when they have a similar product, and one with which they are familiar, at their local airport?

When bmi baby started up at CWL they initially offered unsustainably low fares which did attract some travellers from the West Country. The Bristol paper carried stories of people driving past Lulsgate to get to Rhoose to take advantage. Once the low fares ceased the flow largely stopped.

I think CWL would be better off trying to recapture its 'own' passengers who use airports in England. A Jet2 base would almost certainly play a part in that but I am doubtful that there would be huge numbers of West Country-based travellers flocking to Jet2 unless those low fares were offered, but Jet2 or any airline could not sustain them for long.

With Jet2 I think what they would offer people is something different. They seem to be a hit at BHX and STN though they are much larger markets.
In the end though CWL needs to concentrate on providing flights and routes for it's own catchment area and essentially get more Welsh people flying from Cardiff than Bristol which will be a challenge as many of the airlines it needs to provide those flights are quite happy for Welsh passengers to fly from Bristol but Cardiff is heading in the right direction i believe.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

With Jet2 I think what they would offer people is something different. They seem to be a hit at BHX and STN though they are much larger markets.
In the end though CWL needs to concentrate on providing flights and routes for it's own catchment area and essentially get more Welsh people flying from Cardiff than Bristol which will be a challenge as many of the airlines it needs to provide those flights are quite happy for Welsh passengers to fly from Bristol but Cardiff is heading in the right direction i believe.

There are people who fly from BRS when they could fly from CWL now. There are many reasons for this ranging from cost; airline; flight times/days; ignorance of what is on offer at CWL; familiarity with what they've become used to (I've mentioned before that neighbours of our used CWL one year because the TOM IT flights to Malaga from BRS that year were fully booked when they wanted to go. They continued to use CWL for several years afterwards because they were comfortable with the familiarity even though accessing the airport meant driving 50 miles each way instead of nine); sometimes even for what many of us might think to be peculiar reasons (for example, some years ago BBC Radio Bristol was conducting a phone-in about BRS and a caller rang in to say he would use CWL in future because of some perceived slight he felt he had received at BRS - from memory it was something to do with car parking.)

 

[Jerry]

There are people who fly from BRS when they could fly from CWL now. There are many reasons for this ranging from cost; airline; flight times/days; ignorance of what is on offer at CWL;

There will always be a large amount of people flying from Bristol who are Welsh because to the average Welsh airline passenger the product that Bristol offers for various reasons is better than the product offered at Cardiff. Bristol has the 2 biggest airlines in Europe operating big route networks and for many Flybe and Vueling don't compare to that even though both are very good airlines and offer good products themselves. TCXs and TUIs offering as well compared to what they offer at BRS is also small.
CWL will have Qatar so that will be unique to them but the bulk of Welsh passengers won't be using a service like that, so as long as Cardiff doesn't have substantial bases from Easyjet Ryanair or Jet2 then generally more Welsh people will use BRS than CWL is the foreseeable future. Maybe there is a possibility by 2020 or 2021 it might become equal but that will depend on how each airport grows with their based airlines and any new airlines that may come along in the future and how the experience at each airport develops as well.

 

[Jerry]

I read this week on a website called Aviation Wales, admittedly a website that is a cheerleader for CWL and Welsh aviation in general but it's still a serious website, that it has learned that the Welsh Government and CWL 'are trying to woo at least one transatlantic airline as well as a second carrier from the Middle East'.
@TheLocalYokel wrote this on the Bristol masterplan thread so i thought i would be better to comment on it here.
A transatlantic airline i can see them chasing and I hope becomes a reality in the near future. A second ME3 airline i'd have thought would be only sustainable in the distant future after the Doha route becomes established. If a second airline from the East was too come along i'd personally think a Chinese airline would be the better option in the long term as China has massive potential for trade and inbound tourism for a small country like Wales.

 

[Tinkerman]

Fact: Talks with Transatlantic Airline.
False: No more ME carriers/routes after QR, at least not in the foreseeable future.

Few interesting developments coming up but nothing groundbreaking - So don’t get your hopes up. I’ve been absent from this forum for a considerable length of time so just thought i’d check in !

 

[Jerry]

The transatlantic airline will be interesting. I can't see it being a US based one and I'd have thought the route would be Orlando rather than NYC but part of me is sceptical that it will be Thomas Cook for some reason. Hopefully we'll get to find out!
Also hopefully as well the airport can attract a new airline as well for 2019 even if it's just one 1 route.
The masterplan that is supposed to be becoming out in April will also hopefully give us some sort of clue what the future will be like for the terminal as well and other parts of the airport as well.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Fact: Talks with Transatlantic Airline.
False: No more ME carriers/routes after QR, at least not in the foreseeable future.

Few interesting developments coming up but nothing groundbreaking - So don’t get your hopes up. I’ve been absent from this forum for a considerable length of time so just thought i’d check in !

Good to see you back, Tinkerman.

I doubt that Qatar would be amused at the thought of competition so soon in their operation. Aviation Wales quotes 'sources' (not identified of course). I'm not sure who runs the Aviation Wales website.

I'd have thought that CWL would want Qatar launched and successful before turning to a second carrier.

 

[Tinkerman]

No problems TLY.

I still spectate these forums quite regularly, just felt the need to put some input into that. QR will not have competition on ME/Hub routes or the like for as far as the eye can see.

The most interesting of the two scenarios is the Transatlantic link. There are numerous discussions ongoing with ‘a couple’ of airlines of this nature - As can be expected from any UK airport worth it’s own value.

I can’t comment further for obvious reasons but i’ll try and drop some hints as and when i can. Rather busy at the moment.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Talk is FR are dropping Bergerac from BRS. Perfect for BE to pickup and with VY's PMI schedule only being Mon-Thu, would be good to see BE fit in a PMI on Saturday.

 

[Marko1]

I only mentioned Bergerac and the word IF just in case. I don't think Ryanair's Summer schedule is complete yet .

 

[Jerry]

PMI for BE would be a good fit. They could operate each of PMI, ALC and AGP 2 weekly, if they were going to go for a French route i'd have thought it would be Bordeaux, Nice or Rennes before Bergerac. But they would need to base another jet or have aircraft from other bases like JER,SOU, EDI and BHD operate the likes of GLA, JER, EDI and BHD and i can't see them doing that this year at least.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Talk is FR are dropping Bergerac from BRS. Perfect for BE to pickup and with VY's PMI schedule only being Mon-Thu, would be good to see BE fit in a PMI on Saturday.

Flybe operates Bergerac from Exeter in summer so it's not a silly idea to think they might do the same from CWL, especially if Ryanair does drop its BRS route.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe operates Bergerac from Exeter in summer so it's not a silly idea to think they might do the same from CWL, especially if Ryanair does drop its BRS route.

I am a little surprised they haven't looked at introducing some regional France routes as they do have a strong presence there they could W pattern with a SOU or EXT based aircraft once a week maybe.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

That was my thinking. No competition like on some of the other routes operated by EZY. It's a shame. I think if BE knew where they were going and were looking to expand then there's a case for another aircraft. There's a number of options to Spain, France and Italy that could keep another jet busy but I don' think they are currently in the position to want to grow and utilise the aircraft at CWL