Potential Routes

[Jerry]

Assuming that Aer Lingus are interested and that they can get the slots and have the aircraft.

With Ryanair the downside is that it may only operate daily and possibly at horrible times unless the airport could persuade them to operate 2 daily.

It will be the same for the other Flybe routes as well slot times and aircraft allocation may mean that routes like Edinburgh and Belfast would have no morning flight's.

 

[Jerry]

Every time one of these types of tweets from the airport pops up Florida always seems to be mentioned! Maybe one day we'll see the route back at Cardiff.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1122901112602886147

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I've suggested this before, but now it might be more relevant. A possible Airline suited to CWL would be Volotea. They operate Boeing 717s (125 seats) and A319 (156 seats). They are due to take on 6 more A319's soon.
The 717's would be the best fit for CWL seeing as anything smaller probably isn't economically viable as a leisure route aircraft. This is from the about us section: we connect small and medium sized European cities with non-stop direct flights at very competitive prices
They don't however currently fly to the UK and only operate ORK-VRN. They have several bases, generally at smaller Airports, but notably they have bases at Verona and Venice.
We can pretty much write off any routes from Flybe that are more than Q400 range and Volotea, although relatively unknown in the UK, could be a good fit with their model and aircraft types. Prices seem quite reasonable too. It would be a Vueling style startup if they were to come to CWL which would take time to mature, but i'm struggling to think of any other Airline that would take on the routes that probably couldn't sustain a 737/A320.

 

[Jerry]

Volotea are an interesting airline, they are phasing out the 717s and going all A319 but they are an established airline in the French Mediterranean and Italy and CWL has proven that alternative airlines can work, they also can be pretty cheap I believe. They used to operate from Southampton and Southend I think but I'm not sure if it was for say TUI or themselves.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

If I am correct Volotea is the baby of the people that initially set up Vueling.

I know when we were struggling to regroup after the recession, Volotea was suggested.

Unfortunately during that time they had no interest in Cardiff whatsoever. The aviation industry changes a lot so maybe with this their attitude might change.

Volotea are not strangers to Cardiff and the 717’s have visited on several occasions for major sporting events but not for a while.

 

[superking]

Volotea operate various routes for TUI.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

If I am correct Volotea is the baby of the people that initially set up Vueling.

Yes, that is so.

 

[Barry Man]

Strange that this airline has been mentioned Volotea, I say this because I know a pilot that works for them ( he is quite high up and knows the the top management very well ) his family home is not far from CWL , well just down the road by the Cwm Ciddy, and he has been pressing them to have a look at Cardiff for some time . So who knows something my come of it .

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

If only it worked that way.

Pilots and engineers have been saying Jet2 will base at Cardiff for years but unfortunately this hasn’t materialised (Yet)

 

[Jerry]

In the end it will depend on Volotea's strategy and if the airport has approached them whether they would be interested in operating into Cardiff and whether they have the capacity. They also have the potential for the airport to introduce southern France routes.
Their route map is in the link below.
https://www.volotea.com/en/destinations/

 

[Jerry]

Interesting quote from Delta's European sales Vice President Shane Spyak about APD.
Mr Spyak said: “APD is not a direct factor [in route selection]. We do not judge whether we are going to fly there or not on the basis of if there is a tax.”
However, he added: “We would absolutely welcome a reduction in APD, which would make air travel more accessible.”
Obviously one of the Welsh governments objectives is a USA route and they believe reducing APD would help with that.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/trans...boosted-despite-lack-of-air-tax-cut-1-4933587

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Any idea how Ryanair are getting on with the new routes this summer?

 

[Jerry]

Any idea how Ryanair are getting on with the new routes this summer?

Won't know until the CAA stats come out but from social media it seems Malta is doing decently. Barcelona is an unknown, not heard much about it on social media. Prices on BCN do seem quite cheap.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Granted it's Bank Holiday, but tomorrow's BCN is £159 with only 5 seats left on the seat map. It also could be that out of those 5 there are still people to check-in.
Tuesday 28th is showing sold out. Then prices from next week drop again and vary between £20-£60 each way. I've looked a few times at BCN and prices on some dates can be quite expensive or have been sold out.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Any idea how Ryanair are getting on with the new routes this summer?

With Ryanair load factors don't always mean a lot. They expect high load factors anyway and there are a number of examples of routes being axed despite consistent very high load factors each month.

Obviously one of the Welsh governments objectives is a USA route and they believe reducing APD would help with that.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/trans...boosted-despite-lack-of-air-tax-cut-1-4933587

An APD-free or severely reduced APD CWL would have its attractions for an airline, whether it pocketed the APD equivalent without reducing fares in order to obtain an acceptable yield, or reduced fares by all or part of the APD equivalent to entice more passengers and improve yield that way.

However, if the Delta spokesman is to be believed, that would not play a part in any decision they make. Hmm! Interesting!

Scotland seems to be increasing its transatlantic routes with APD in place and CWL attracted Qatar with APD in place. So perhaps APD is
not the barrier that many people believe if a viable market exists in the first place.

 

[Jerry]

However, if the Delta spokesman is to be believed, that would not play a part in any decision they make. Hmm! Interesting!

Yes it is an interesting comment. If you look at transatlantic fares they are several hundred pounds and often go into the 1000s.
Percentage wise APD would make up less of the fare for a mainline airline like Delta compared to say an LCC like Ryanair or Norwegian.
I suppose that they may feel that no APD is a bonus but that there needs to be a market in place in the first place.

 

[Jerry]

On the Belfast forum it's been posted that Virgin Atlantic will operate the Orlando route now on the A330 200 and not the 747 400 as before.
I wonder if that could mean that Cardiff stands a better chance of attracting Virgin Atlantic on the Orlando route if they are using a smaller aircraft like the A330 200?

 

[Foxlimayankee]

The A330 is only scheduled to operate in APR & MAY, then the 747 takes over again.
VS are going through a number of changes at the moment. With the introduction of the A350, primarily on LHR-JFK, it will be the later ones that replace the 747 in the leisure config. It's not yet been released but it's likely there will be a drop in capacity vs the 747.
The various changes include the introduction of the A350 fleet, growing of the MAN hub and integration with Flybe/Connect.
Althought I wouldn't rule it out completely, I can't imagine a CWL-MCO route is high on the list at the moment.
Saying that, BFS started in 2014 as a weekly route running for just 4 weeks in June-July. The route then grew to twice weekly, although i'm not sure if an extended period was added in or just the 4 weeks. In 2020 the route starts in Apr until May on A330, then switches back to the 747 and appears to be twice weekly (Sat & Sun) during June/July.

It would certainly be great if even a small program could be started at CWL with VS, similar to BFS. The A330 fleet now is certainly better suited for CWL. It would give TUI a run for their money at BRS. Given how TUI have grown their regional operation lately, TCX have cut theirs, BA concentrate on London and VS have grown MAN, GLA & BFS. TUI have the Southwest market to themselves.

 

[Jerry]

Ah my mistake! I thought it was for the whole season!
Would be very nice to see Orlando back on the departure boards even if it's just for a short period. I've no doubt that the airport would want to see it back but for the routes team is it a priority considering the loss of some european routes? I partly also wonder if the airport are hoping that they can get TUI to operate it one day even if it's for a short period over the summer.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Any decent route development team would be talking to all Airlines, as i'm sure Spencer Birns will be. I would say TUI, TCX, VS and even Norwegian would be in their sights. TCX know the history of the route, TUI would likely be concentrating on growing BRS, but may be building data to support both, VS would be higher likely than the rest.
I've often wondered how Airport routes teams discuss these things with Airlines. I remember having a conversation several years ago with someone in a similar position but at another Airport who told me how the region was booming, both in business and passengers, throwing figures around about inbound tourism. The facts and figures needed to persuade Airlines are astonishing. But that was for 2 ways routes, serving both outbound and inbound tourism. I suspect for outbound tourism, such as Orlando, a lot of work needs to be done with Travel Agents and Tour Operators.