Cardiff: Route Development & Rumours

[CAN&I]

O'leary screams about a lot of things, but FR in the UK is a huge market for them that hasn't shrunk because of APD.

I wouldnt discount Jet2 just yet. They want to grow at BRS but can't due to space. TUI expansion at CWL may have peaked their interest.
If VY dont return, Jet2 could pick up slack on Malaga and Alicante and even Palma 4-5 weekly which would easily occupy 2 aircraft each morning alone.

There will always be leaks before official announcements through insider knowledge or eagle eyed enthusiasts that notice things on sale. Hopefully any new things will be out soon as its getting very late for big summer 26 news.

From looking back through posts on here both FR and VY had route announcements on 12th Nov last year. FR was at other UK airports, but looks like this week in November may be a time for airline route updates.

On what evidence is the claim Jet2 "want to grow at BRS but can't due to space" based and why would Jet2 look at CWL to merely "pick up slack" on AGP, ALC and PMI with two based aircraft?

 

[StanMan]

To avoid adding any fuel to the rumours, let's be clear that I have no inside information! However, having worked in commercial aviation for over 30 years, I have a reasonable feel for what makes things attractive for airlines- and I also think that the 'new' route development team at Cardiff Airport seem to have a sound approach.
In terms of establishing a base at CWL, I could see a rational case being made by Jet2, Volotea, Vueling and EasyJet (yes, really!). In the coming 12 months, I would also not be too surprised to see more growth from RUK; the return of QR and European Cargo; and the arrival of PrimeAir.
Of course, I may be talking ******** - it's happened many times before!...but the prospect and speculation is good fun!

 

[Foxlimayankee]

On what evidence is the claim Jet2 "want to grow at BRS but can't due to space" based and why would Jet2 look at CWL to merely pick up the clask on AGP, ALC and PMI with two based aircraft?

Contacts at BRS.

Obviously there would be more routes than just those 3, but they are high demand routes that without VY would need capacity. TUIs growth at CWL will raise interest about shifting capacity in the Southwest. Jet2 have also had a few years to review where their passengers are originating.
Its all speculation at the moment but anything is possible.

 

[CAN&I]

Contacts at BRS.

Obviously there would be more routes than just those 3, but they are high demand routes that without VY would need capacity. TUIs growth at CWL will raise interest about shifting capacity in the Southwest. Jet2 have also had a few years to review where their passengers are originating.
Its all speculation at the moment but anything is possible.

Thank you.

Seems practically everyone on here has "contacts". Its surprising any airport is able to sustain business on a commercially confidential basis in such a competitive market, especially given so much "inside information" is willingly and openly passed to members of the public for debate online.

So Jet2's interest in picking up the slack left by Vueling potentially walking away is just pure speculation. Thats a fairer reflection it seems.

Just one more question. Would you consider the investment in a new base at CWL based on 1) filling the gap left by an away-based, two-route, low-cost airline and 2) moving 20% of its existing customers from one airport to another, makes sound commercial sense right now, particularly where TUI are signalling a slow retreat at BRS and additional airport capacity is on the not too distant horizon? Or, it it just wishful thinking?

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Seems practically everyone on here has "contacts". Its surprising any airport is able to sustain business on a commercially confidential basis in such a competitive market, especially given so much "inside information" is willingly and openly passed to members of the public for debate online

Isn't this, and every other forum, purely speculation? Its what these forums are built on, and why people enjoy them. When they're allowed to....

Just one more question. Would you consider the investment in a new base at CWL based on 1) filling the gap left by an away-based, two-route, low-cost airline and 2) moving 20% of its existing customers from one airport to another, makes sound commercial sense right now, particularly where TUI are signalling a slow retreat at BRS and additional airport capacity is on the not too distant horizon? Or, it it just wishful thinking?

No, its merely pointing out that if VY dont return, there's slack to be picked up. Any new base would've been in discussion for years, not a knee jerk reaction to another airline leaving. But would be a positive for any new airline knowing they'll be able to fill a gap on some routes almost instantly.

 

[CAN&I]

To avoid adding any fuel to the rumours, let's be clear that I have no inside information! However, having worked in commercial aviation for over 30 years, I have a reasonable feel for what makes things attractive for airlines- and I also think that the 'new' route development team at Cardiff Airport seem to have a sound approach.
In terms of establishing a base at CWL, I could see a rational case being made by Jet2, Volotea, Vueling and EasyJet (yes, really!). In the coming 12 months, I would also not be too surprised to see more growth from RUK; the return of QR and European Cargo; and the arrival of PrimeAir.
Of course, I may be talking ******** - it's happened many times before!...but the prospect and speculation is good fun!

Thanks for your openness StanMan. Some interesting theories there for sure. Volotea is a credible shout but its also fair to say they are "small fry" in the low-cost world right now with just 30-ish aircraft. Would CWL necessarily appear high up on their priority list if they were looking at expanding into the UK market? Just throwing it out there...

With regards Jet2 and easyJet, the question has to be why would either need CWL right now? Jet2 might be one to watch long-term but easyJet? Just can't see it, such is their dominance in the south Wales market today. They're already slowly pushing TUI out and Ryanair's market in the area is less than half the size. They'll continue to to push both at their expense to gain an even larger presence at BRS before even contemplating CWL surely? Would love to be proved completely and utterly wrong for sure, but it just seems a distant possibility for now.

Ryanair on the other hand seems to be the best of the few credible options open at present. They at least have a virtual blank slate at CWL to mount a push against easyJet and the LFs on their AGP/ALC/DUB/FAO/TFS services are all very healthy indeed. Whether Ryanair sees CWL as a priority against other airports vying for capacity is another question.

Still think there's a long road ahead unfortunately.

Isn't this, and every other forum, purely speculation? Its what these forums are built on, and why people enjoy them. When they're allowed to....

Not sure why the dig is necessary. It’s not easy navigating these boards or being able to tell when someone is merely speculating or stating fact (or stating what they are convinced is fact), or even just out to pick fault in others to inflate their own fragile sense of superiority.

Speculation is all well and good and yes, it can be fun.

However, you'll know full well that some commentators tend to blur the lines between speculation and fact, intentionally or otherwise, and will often push a belief-based narrative as unequivocal fact to the point of narcissistic obsession. That’s when it becomes less fun, almost dangerous at times, especially when others would dare wish to counter speculation with a little realism, possibly even an objective fact or two.

Equally, endless speculation going round and round in circles over the same theories to the point of argument and frustration amongst said speculators doesn't always make for great reading or doesn't necessarily come across as "fun". Just saying.

Asides, digs and petulance make forums a less than welcoming environment and more of an echo chamber where only certain voices are given credence or are allowed to be heard. You see it all the time on online forums. Hopefully that’s not the case here and all opinions, outlooks and objectives are welome.

No, its merely pointing out that if VY dont return, there's slack to be picked up. Any new base would've been in discussion for years, not a knee jerk reaction to another airline leaving. But would be a positive for any new airline knowing they'll be able to fill a gap on some routes almost instantly.

Thanks for answering the question. Sure there may be slack to pick up if Vueling decided to move on, but from what you are saying you agree it doesn't amount to a credible business case for Jet2 curently on the basis suggested.

 

[Jerry]

Apparently CWL are being very secretive of the news to not let it be spoilt before any official announcements. It must be big if that’s their approach

It's possible that the airline might want to announce it alongside other routes it's launching.

From looking back through posts on here both FR and

I'm sure I read that Ryanair customers often book their flights only a couple of months out so a shorter lead on a route might not be so bad for them. Also they could choose to launch a route like say Mallorca in June. They've done that with Malaga so still plenty of time for them to add more. Vueling I am more concerned about.

 

[CAN&I]

It's possible that the airline might want to announce it alongside other routes it's launching.

Completely agree.

A secretive approach by all involved parties is perfectly normal where credible, multi-million (or billion!) pound businesses are concerned. It demonstrates utmost respect to commercial confidentiality, as should always be the case. That’s why, in the real world (again - sorry if this offends anyone!), it’s difficult for some to take online “inside information”, rumour and speculation at face value.

Whatever the future holds, and no matter what is speculated, absolutely nothing is a certainty until its announced formally.

A quick general question on potential routes...

@SeanM1997 (of X / Twitter) does a lot of great work and is gernally well respected for what he does.

However, it is notable that when he drops his "watch this space" teasers to (naturally) generate fun and interest, often it's the same airports (LHR/LGW/BHX/MAN/EDI/GLA) that end up seeing one or two route announcements, some significant, some otherwise. Also noticeable is a less frequent habit of offering a tease, only for there to be no follow up.

Asides airline bulletins, does anyone know where he sources his information from and does anyone have a view as to how accurate his teasers generally are? Would be interested in hearing members' thoughts on the matter.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Asides, digs and petulance make this and other forums a less than welcoming environment and more of an echo chamber where only certain voices are given credence or are allowed to be heard. You see it all the time on online forums.

Indeed we do.....

Hopefully that’s not the case here and all opinions, outlooks and objectives are welome.

That certainly hasn't been the case on this forum, so hopefully that doesn't change.

Anyway, back on topic.

 

[Jack Ruckley]

Completely agree.

A secretive approach by all involved parties is perfectly normal where credible, multi-million (or billion!) pound businesses are concerned. It demonstrates utmost respect to commercial confidentiality, as should always be the case. That’s why, in the real world (again - sorry if this offends anyone!), it’s difficult for some to take online “inside information”, rumour and speculation at face value.

Whatever the future holds, and no matter what is speculated, absolutely nothing is a certainty until its announced formally.

Well, that’s what I said about I was briefed that Cardiff wanted it to be a secret with no posts online for at least the next 2 weeks which indicates they are confident that the news will be good and a shock for us all.

Does anyone know? No which is what makes it amazing this week. We all like forums especially this one as we can all imagine and make assumptions of wishes but also what this news just could be.

For Cardiff to be so secretive about it is promising and we are all praying it’s either long haul or a LCC base from the ideas floating around online.

 

[CAN&I]

That certainly hasn't been the case on this forum, so hopefully that doesn't change.

Interesting. That doesn't quite align with the welcome received or the experience noted so far, so let's hope that proves to be the case moving forward.

For Cardiff to be so secretive about it is promising and we are all praying it’s either long haul or a LCC base from the ideas floating around online.

For an airport desperate for a breakthrough on its recovery journey, either option will be up against some significant challenges over the coming months and years. Lets hope whatever it is (if indeed it actually happens) proves to be sustainable long-term, rather than yet another short term debacle via an outfit such as Play or Wizz.

 

[geoff]

I think CWL have learned their lesson from what occurred in 2013, when FlyBE were about to announce their 3 aircraft base at CWL, when someone leaked the news to the BBC, who announced it the late evening the night before.

 

[Jerry]

Whatever the future holds, and no matter what is speculated, absolutely nothing is a certainty until its announced formally.

Aviation enthusiasts will speculate we're a bit like football fans with our local team and hoping to do well in the transfer market and sign that star player! There will be some people who know whether that might happen and others won't but it doesn't harm anyone for a bit of online speculation and speculation it is until we get the announcement. Hopefully soon!

@SeanM1997 (of X / Twitter) does a lot of great work and is gernally well respected for what he does.

However, it is notable that when he drops his "watch this space" teasers to (naturally) generate fun and interest, often it's the same airports (LHR/LGW/BHX/MAN/EDI/GLA) that end up seeing one or two route announcements, some significant, some otherwise.

Tbf to SeanM1997 he does run a social media account and posts like that generate interest but also give people a little hope something might happen at their local airport but the airports that you mentioned will get the most of the announcements as between they roughly handle 200 million passengers a year. Which I'd expect to be 2/3rds at least of the passengers travelling to and from the UK.

 

[Jack Ruckley]

I think CWL have learned their lesson from what occurred in 2013, when FlyBE were about to announce their 3 aircraft base at CWL, when someone leaked the news to the BBC, who announced it the late evening the night before.

I never knew that, proves how young I was then. Also it needs to be handled in the correct way and I think journalism has evolved to check the stories before the share them nowadays.

Was there any other cases of leaks that pipped Cardiff to the announcement?

 

[Jerry]

For Cardiff to be so secretive about it is promising and we are all praying it’s either long haul or a LCC base from the ideas floating around online.

If I was a betting man I'd probably bet on long haul tbh. Only real LCC option for Cardiff would be Ryanair and I suspect their network and operation isn't there yet to go for a base especially for winter.

 

[CAN&I]

Aviation enthusiasts will speculate we're a bit like football fans with our local team and hoping to do well in the transfer market and sign that star player! There will be some people who know whether that might happen and others won't but it doesn't harm anyone for a bit of online speculation and speculation it is until we get the announcement. Hopefully soon!

Absolutely no problem with enthusiastic speculation whatsoever. However, sometimes things have a tendency to get out of hand and no matter what, certain fans only want to hear their own voices and terrace chants and beware anyone who may dare offer a reality check once in a while. That’s when it becomes unpleasant and unnecessary.

Tbf to SeanM1997 he does run a social media account and posts like that generate interest but also give people a little hope something might happen at their local airport but the airports that you mentioned will get the most of the announcements as between they roughly handle 200 million passengers a year. Which I'd expect to be 2/3rds at least of the passengers travelling to and from the UK.

Guess it does come down to the law of averages for sure. Onto the second part of the question, do you know where he sources his information asides scanning booking engines all day long?

 

[geoff]

One of the fairly recent leaks was on facebook, which declared the Saltsburg ski route before it was formally announced.

 

[Jack Ruckley]

One of the fairly recent leaks was on facebook, which declared the Saltsburg ski route before it was formally announced.

I did remember Cardiff airport did some teasers for that but YES it was leaked on Facebook but also by TUI’s timetable change on Saturday which indicated the new route.

Just proves how hard it is to keep stuff a secret these days with social media leaks

 

[CAN&I]

I never knew that, proves how young I was then. Also it needs to be handled in the correct way and I think journalism has evolved to check the stories before the share them nowadays.

Was there any other cases of leaks that pipped Cardiff to the announcement?

Interesting question. Old enough to remember the Flybe gaff. The news was embargoed yet someone at CWL or WG either had a big mouth or didn't get the memo! Thankfully, they seem to be much better at dealing with commercially sensitive matters these days.

To be fair, journalists (BBC, Nation Cymru, Wales Online, etc) tend to be days, sometimes weeks behind the average aviation enthusiast when it comes to news, unless it’s a formal press release or something raised for their attention. On the flip side, if it’s anything negative, they’re usually onto the story like a shot. (Having said that, they had an open goal with the Loganair news recently yet that didn’t really gain a lot of reaction online.)

Thinking back, can’t recall the news concerning Qatar, Wizz, Play or even European Cargo breaking before the official announcements. The only big story to "leak" over the last year or two was news of TUI’s 2nd and 4th based aircraft. Most “fans” had already guessed that was coming through studying route updates and booking engines, although not all of the new routes (HRG, FAO, etc) trickled through beforehand.

On the other hand, if all online “inside information”, rumour and speculation proved to be true, CWL would have had Qatar back, long haul flights to Canada AND multi-aircraft bases for easyJet, Jet2 and Ryanair by now. 🤣

One of the fairly recent leaks was on facebook, which declared the Saltsburg ski route before it was formally announced.

Yes! Wasn't that one of the local TUI travel agents accidentally jumping the gun with their social media a day or two before the announcement or was that another TUI route?

 

[Foxlimayankee]

To be fair, journalists (BBC, Nation Cymru, Wales Online, etc) tend to be days, sometimes weeks behind the average aviation enthusiast when it comes to news, unless it’s a formal press release or something raised for their attention. On the flip side, if it’s anything negative, they’re usually onto the story like a shot. (Having said that, they had an open goal with the Loganair news recently yet that didn’t really gain a lot of reaction online.)

Can it be leaks if it's in the public domain with flights on sale?
Most "leaks" happen because people search and find it online, so it's already in the public domain. You could say the Airline leaked it by putting the flights on sale.

Looking back through these forums, the Wizz news was posted with a BBC news link at 0619 AM with quotes from Spencer Birns, Ken Skates and Owain Jones. The CWL social media release and website release wasn't until 0930. So obviously the 3 people above had already leaked the information to the press before the official CWL announcement.

Similarly with Qatar, Business Traveller put a press release out which was posted on here at 1044am, with that article having quotes from Deb Barber. The link to the CWL press release wasn't posted until gone 1300.

Aviation enthusiasts can't be held accountable for "leaks" when flights are on sale, or CWL themselves have done press interviews, with their own marketing team lagging behind in time.

SeanM is a credit to any enthusiast. He has contacts and must have some kind of access to booking systems, as he often posts schedules before they are available on airline website. Example today he posted Liverpool - Tirana with schedules, but they aren't available on the website or the app. He can't be doing anything wrong as he would've been pulled up by the Airlines. Ultimately for the airlines, if the flights are due to go on sale, it's free advertising.