Cardiff: Route Development & Rumours

[Em0866]

It will be interesting to see when this press conference will take place. Personally I think it is too late to launch for S16, unless they start off in October...that is my opinion. Most people would have booked their hols by now. Let's wait and see though

 

[CraigW92]

View attachment 3386 Thanks to jet photos and @Hanys for this, Cobalts second aircraft in full livery, Cardiff was due for the end of the July and this could still be the case, although certain start up dates are subject to change with the problems that Cobalt has encountered over the last few days with regards to the fact the ATLA cited a lack of satisfactory vetting of the company’s foreign shareholders for the delays according to local press in Cyprus.

I imagine the press confrence will be imminent as well as the launch of thr website where routes and frequencies will be confirmed, I was under the impression that Manchester and
London Stansted will be amongst the first routes to be launched in the UK.

 

[Em0866]

Thank You Craig for posting the photo. We will just have to wait it out to see what Cobalt have in store

 

[Tinkerman]

That aircraft looks really smart. Looks like an excellent product that Cobalt are set to offer. That is their full livery, whereas the previous 5B- registered aircraft was the Avion Express one hence the hybrid scheme like our TCX.

The original Cobalt press conference has occurred. It was in Athens the day before yesterday. The original routes in this part of the world are London, presumably STN, MAN and DUB. As more aircraft come online then CWL, GLA, EMA etc will then be added and according to correspondance will be announced in the next phase which should be quite shortly.

With regards to the website and booking engine, i hear that it's likely to go live next week.

 

[Tinkerman]

Noted on another forum, the booking system has now gone live although the website overall still seems to be in some sort of 'hybrid' state between complete and incomplete. Therefore they must now have received their commercial license to sell tickets. They are to operate 7 aircraft, both A319's and A320's in the fleet by January 2017. Judging by the current frequencies showing for MAN, CWL could reasonably expect to be 1x weekly, maybe 2x weekly if the current schedule only takes into account the current operated aircraft, where of course MAN, STN and the likes would be more frequent.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Larnaca would be a good scheduled service addition and would be one of the few scheduled routes that CWL would have that BRS hasn't got. easyJet flies to Paphos from BRS.

 

[Jerry]

Does anyone have any news or rumours of any new routes for CWL?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Does anyone have any news or rumours of any new routes for CWL?

Still awaiting some official news from Cobalt. Beyond that nothing at present, although the Jet2 rumour was doing the rounds a month or so ago.

If Vueling expands its presence in the form of a new route or routes Rome seems to be the one that some people appear to think would be a good start.

With the possible fallout from an EU departure to the forefront of many people's minds it might be that airports of, say, BRS size and below might not get routes they might otherwise have done until the way forward outside the EU (if we do leave) is clearer.

Wizz Air will axe their Glasgow-Vilnius route from the end of this month with suggestions that other UK routes might follow. Easter European routes to EU countries seem the obvious ones at risk if residents of those countries are denied the automatic right of residence in the UK. At least this particular aspect won't affect CWL as it has none of these routes.

 

[Jerry]

Still awaiting some official news from Cobalt. Beyond that nothing at present, although the Jet2 rumour was doing the rounds a month or so ago.

If Vueling expands its presence in the form of a new route or routes Rome seems to be the one that some people appear to think would be a good start.

With the possible fallout from an EU departure to the forefront of many people's minds it might be that airports of, say, BRS size and below might not get routes they might otherwise have done until the way forward outside the EU (if we do leave) is clearer.

Wizz Air will axe their Glasgow-Vilnius route from the end of this month with suggestions that other UK routes might follow. Easter European routes to EU countries seem the obvious ones at risk if residents of those countries are denied the automatic right of residence in the UK. At least this particular aspect won't affect CWL as it has none of these routes.

Hopeful

Still awaiting some official news from Cobalt. Beyond that nothing at present, although the Jet2 rumour was doing the rounds a month or so ago.

If Vueling expands its presence in the form of a new route or routes Rome seems to be the one that some people appear to think would be a good start.

With the possible fallout from an EU departure to the forefront of many people's minds it might be that airports of, say, BRS size and below might not get routes they might otherwise have done until the way forward outside the EU (if we do leave) is clearer.

Wizz Air will axe their Glasgow-Vilnius route from the end of this month with suggestions that other UK routes might follow. Easter European routes to EU countries seem the obvious ones at risk if residents of those countries are denied the automatic right of residence in the UK. At least this particular aspect won't affect CWL as it has none of these routes.

Yes Brexit might put the brakes on a lot of airlines from developing new routes. Hopefully the Jet2 rumours will turn into something substantial even if its just 1 or 2 sun routes they would be a start and VY can keep up with it's expansion as i think Rome would be a good addition. Sun routes generally work at Cardiff. I do wonder if the temporary LCY route is a success if Flybe would consider basing a Dash 8/E170 there to do a double daily LCY and maybe a southern France route like Bordeaux/Toulouse/Toulon and a morning CDG flight to offer more connections through there or a MAN to link up with Virgins MAN flights. Hopefully Brexit won't be to damaging.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Hopeful

Yes Brexit might put the brakes on a lot of airlines from developing new routes. Hopefully the Jet2 rumours will turn into something substantial even if its just 1 or 2 sun routes they would be a start and VY can keep up with it's expansion as i think Rome would be a good addition. Sun routes generally work at Cardiff. I do wonder if the temporary LCY route is a success if Flybe would consider basing a Dash 8/E170 there to do a double daily LCY and maybe a southern France route like Bordeaux/Toulouse/Toulon and a morning CDG flight to offer more connections through there or a MAN to link up with Virgins MAN flights. Hopefully Brexit won't be to damaging.

There was a strong rumour earlier this year, with posts on some aviation forums, that Flybe was going to begin a MAN-CWL this year but it came to nothing. Exeter seems to have done well in recent years with its multi-daily Flybe MAN link feeding into MAN's substantial Flybe network.

London has always been an elusive target for CWL. Like BRS and BHX it's usually considered too near the UK capital to be viable. Mind you, so was EXT but it now seems to be doing quite well with its Flybe LCY link. We remember that Air Wales tried valiantly to link South Wales with London beginning with a Swansea-Cardiff-London route. Swansea was dropped and the CWL programme was gradually reduced after that.

With the Severn Tunnel closed for six weeks the train will clearly become less attractive during that period but whether any decent LCY loads can be maintained when the line resumes normal working might be questionable. It's certainly a useful exercise and Flybe will obviously be keen to see if they can deduce any long term passenger patterns from it.

As to any further routes that Flybe might look at, it's really anyone's guess. Unless the CWL base is increased in size any substantial increase in routes will have to come from aircraft from other bases or a reduction in the current programme.

 

[CraigW92]

Cobalt will add a LCA service I believe into the system within the next few months I was told and I imagine that this will have a launch for around March 17, this was after talking to Cobalt themselves although this was before the Referendum took place so plans can change,

LCY is now operated by a Dash8 as of quite a weeks weeks ago now amongst the chaos that evolved around VLM at the time

But as Local has pointed out its pretty quiet at the moment, the point will be when FR release summer 17 will anything be added, I've pointed out before that I am extremely cautious with Ryanair expanding and causing a negative effect on Vueling, Summer sun beach destinations will always sell well, I think Local has pointed out in the past it wouldn't be at all surprising to see an increased presence at some point.

With regards to Vueling, IBZ and FCO are many peoples choices to be added, the more I look at the base at Zurich the more it looks like CWL could have a similar operation albeit with a few different destinations.

 

[Jerry]

There was a strong rumour earlier this year, with posts on some aviation forums, that Flybe was going to begin a MAN-CWL this year but it came to nothing. Exeter seems to have done well in recent years with its multi-daily Flybe MAN link feeding into MAN's substantial Flybe network.

London has always been an elusive target for CWL. Like BRS and BHX it's usually considered too near the UK capital to be viable. Mind you, so was EXT but it now seems to be doing quite well with its Flybe LCY link. We remember that Air Wales tried valiantly to link South Wales with London beginning with a Swansea-Cardiff-London route. Swansea was dropped and the CWL programme was gradually reduced after that.

With the Severn Tunnel closed for six weeks the train will clearly become less attractive during that period but whether any decent LCY loads can be maintained when the line resumes normal working might be questionable. It's certainly a useful exercise and Flybe will obviously be keen to see if they can deduce any long term passenger patterns from it.

As to any further routes that Flybe might look at, it's really anyone's guess. Unless the CWL base is increased in size any substantial increase in routes will have to come from aircraft from other bases or a reduction in the current programme.

Hopefully LCY will work and Flybe will base more aircraft as otherwise the Flybe routes may just end up stagnating and any new routes will come at a cost of previous routes. On a personal level i'd love an LBA route as it would make it a lot easier to visit my sister! (Don't think it'll ever happen though)

 

[Jerry]

Cobalt will add a LCA service I believe into the system within the next few months I was told and I imagine that this will have a launch for around March 17, this was after talking to Cobalt themselves although this was before the Referendum took place so plans can change,

LCY is now operated by a Dash8 as of quite a weeks weeks ago now amongst the chaos that evolved around VLM at the time

But as Local has pointed out its pretty quiet at the moment, the point will be when FR release summer 17 will anything be added, I've pointed out before that I am extremely cautious with Ryanair expanding and causing a negative effect on Vueling, Summer sun beach destinations will always sell well, I think Local has pointed out in the past it wouldn't be at all surprising to see an increased presence at some point.

With regards to Vueling, IBZ and FCO are many peoples choices to be added, the more I look at the base at Zurich the more it looks like CWL could have a similar operation albeit with a few different destinations.

Do you think Vueling would ever base aircraft at Cardiff? Could Ryanair work at Cardiff without doing the same routes as Vueling?

 

[Jerry]

Another potential that could do LCY could be CityJet? If flybe didn't continue it.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Do you think Vueling would ever base aircraft at Cardiff? Could Ryanair work at Cardiff without doing the same routes as Vueling?

Another potential that could do LCY could be CityJet? If flybe didn't continue it.

If Vueling got up to daily on say Alicante and Malaga plus extra flights to Barcelona and Palma plus one or two new destinations I can't see why a base wouldn't work from an operational point of view.

If Ryanair does expand at CWL it seems highly unlikely that they would not want some of the sun routes which, as was pointed out recently in a CWL thread, are CWL's strong points.

A snag with CityJet is the size of their aircraft. They currently operate 95-seat ARJs which are already beginning to be replaced by 98-seat Sukhoi 100s. Factor in the electrification of the Cardiff-Paddington line and rail continues to look highly attractive.

I was confident, as confident as someone can be who is not privy to the inner workings of airlines and the airport's negotiations with them, that we would see some Ryanair expansion next year. Whether the EU Leave decision will make airlines stop and think, and not just at CWL, remains to be seen.

Another important factor is the route development fund courtesy of the WAG's loan to its airport company. It was said to be £13 million over three years. Obviously we don't know how much has been spent already but this could play a part in attracting more airlines and/or routes.

Looking a bit further ahead the Cameron government said it would not devolve APD to Wales. We don't know whether a new Conservative administration or even a new non-Tory government (if there is an early general election) would retain this policy. Any new government relying on a coalition of Plaid Cymru and Scottish Nationalists to make it viable would probably devolve APD as part of the price of the coalition, but that's perhaps looking too far ahead into unknown territory at present.

Looking further ahead still, if we do leave the EU we should, in theory at the moment anyway, not be subject to the EU state aid rules. This might enable the WAG to be more imaginative with funding without worrying about falling foul of state aid rules, although that's not to say that a UK government would not introduce measures to ensure even handedness across all sectors.

 

[Jerry]

If Vueling got up to daily on say Alicante and Malaga plus extra flights to Barcelona and Palma plus one or two new destinations I can't see why a base wouldn't work from an operational point of view.

If Ryanair does expand at CWL it seems highly unlikely that they would not want some of the sun routes which, as was pointed out recently in a CWL thread, are CWL's strong points.

A snag with CityJet is the size of their aircraft. They currently operate 95-seat ARJs which are already beginning to be replaced by 98-seat Sukhoi 100s. Factor in the electrification of the Cardiff-Paddington line and rail continues to look highly attractive.

I was confident, as confident as someone can be who is not privy to the inner workings of airlines and the airport's negotiations with them, that we would see some Ryanair expansion next year. Whether the EU Leave decision will make airlines stop and think, and not just at CWL, remains to be seen.

Another important factor is the route development fund courtesy of the WAG's loan to its airport company. It was said to be £13 million over three years. Obviously we don't know how much has been spent already but this could play a part in attracting more airlines and/or routes.

Looking a bit further ahead the Cameron government said it would not devolve APD to Wales. We don't know whether a new Conservative administration or even a new non-Tory government (if there is an early general election) would retain this policy. Any new government relying on a coalition of Plaid Cymru and Scottish Nationalists to make it viable would probably devolve APD as part of the price of the coalition, but that's perhaps looking too far ahead into unknown territory at present.

A Ryanair base or more routes from them would give good publicity for the airport but might impact on any potential Vueling expansion. Like you said Brexit does kind of throw things in to doubt as whether Ryanair would put a stop on all UK expansion. They might just choose to add another Canary Island route instead.
Honestly I think APD is dead in the water because of the potential effect on Bristol as long as their is a conservative government in charge and probably if their was a Labour one as well. I'm not 100% sure but I think Flybe have been given 5 million of that for a 10 year base and the Anglesey gets 1 million. Though i've always wondered why that deal doesn't include Hawarden as well.

 

[CraigW92]

Do you think Vueling would ever base aircraft at Cardiff? Could Ryanair work at Cardiff without doing the same routes as Vueling?

Possibility Jerry, as Local has pointed out it would all depend on gradual increase in rotations, if for example a few new routes were announced announced alongside capacity increases on PMI, ALC, AGP, BCN then it could well be a possibility, although it is worth nothing that with both VY and FR it they can operate from existing bases without the need to open a new one.

Second question is a bit more difficult, I'm extremely cautious as without a doubt FR will want the core sun routes, PMI, ALC, AGP the 3 big ones alongside TFS which they already operate and to be noted has done extremely well which has led to a 2 X weekly service from this winter up from the 1 weekly previously, There are still plenty of routes that FR or any airline coming into could still operate, IBZ, ACE, HER, MLA just for example that from a low cost point of view remain unserved.

its a case of wait and see it seems, hopefully some positive news to come for Summer 17 from FR, VY or potentially a new airline

 

[Jerry]

Possibility Jerry, as Local has pointed out it would all depend on gradual increase in rotations, if for example a few new routes were announced announced alongside capacity increases on PMI, ALC, AGP, BCN then it could well be a possibility, although it is worth nothing that with both VY and FR it they can operate from existing bases without the need to open a new one.

Second question is a bit more difficult, I'm extremely cautious as without a doubt FR will want the core sun routes, PMI, ALC, AGP the 3 big ones alongside TFS which they already operate and to be noted has done extremely well which has led to a 2 X weekly service from this winter up from the 1 weekly previously, There are still plenty of routes that FR or any airline coming into could still operate, IBZ, ACE, HER, MLA just for example that from a low cost point of view remain unserved.

its a case of wait and see it seems, hopefully some positive news to come for Summer 17 from FR, VY or potentially a new airline

I think at the moment that the airport needs airlines to come in and start new routes rather than just them competing on the same routes. Maybe the airport has discussed that with them? Who knows!
Fingers crossed there'll be some new routes for Summer 17 from FR, VY and Flybe. Maybe as well we'll see Jet2 turning up as well! And from a personal point of view I hope KLM will introduce a 4th daily rotation.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Guernsey

A post on another forum suggests that Blue Islands has applied for a route licence to operate GCI-CWL. Presumably this would be a Flybe franchise as with its BRS-JER. CWL hasn't had a GCI route since 2001 when the BA franchisee (British Regional Airlines) operated a 4 x weekly service.

In 2013 Blue Islands applied to operate a 2 x daily GCI-BRS service in competition with Aurigny but the Guernsey licensing authority rejected the application which was then withdrawn. 3 x daily across two airlines was probably thought excessive for the route.

A GCI-CWL application would be likely to succeed as the route is currently unserved.

I'm unable to confirm the post on the other forum at the moment and I won't begin a separate Blue Islands thread until or unless the route is officially confirmed.

Interesting development given that only today in the Blue Islands BRS thread I've been questioning the viability of the airline.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re previous post, now confirmed that a route application has been submitted to the Guernsey licensing authorities for a Blue Islands GCI-CWL route.