2018 Predictions & Aspirations

[User001]

So, was having a think last night, what will 2018 bring to Manchester. Now, this post isn't because I've heard some bad news, or anything like that, but, more of, after what could be a bumper summer 2017, what happens next?

We are at a big crossroads here, and there could be a few things that need to be considered, and, could be worth a discussion.

Here's my main points:

-Thomas Cook
It was reported internally that TCX wanted to increase by 1 A330 per year at MAN. Now, by this point of the year, we normally have heard or seen evidence of new long haul in particular (to which we sort of have this year). While there doesn't seem to be any cutting, we only have a new Santa Clara. San Diego and Tampa were strongly rumoured, but with the US woes, is this off the cards? Is the extra A330 still planned? Is it time to look towards the booming east?

-Jet2
Constant rumours of MAN-SFB that don't seem to want to go away. I also note it looks like the A330 isn't loaded for next summer, will it return?
I also wonder where Jet2 could go next? The obvious beach resorts are pretty much covered, and there's only so much expansion the traditional resorts can take (more on that shortly). Is Jet2 going to have to break into long haul to stay fresh? Will Stansted and Birmingham divert their main attention?

-Virgin
We have seen San Fransisco and Boston have their seasons cut back. There was planned increases to Boston, Bridgetown and Las Vegas that were all reversed. Winter looks pretty pathetic, and financials not great, so, what next for them?

-Beach resorts
There is no denying there has been huge expansion in this market in the past 2 years.
The problem is now, is this market reaching saturation. It's all well and good adding the flights, but, with hotels etc filling up fast and nearly full all summer, where can people go next? It's also the airports, Palma airport had a shocking Easter weekend due to the influx. It's not just the Brits that take up the hotels, but, it's open to all, so, we are fighting for capacity. We will not see the huge expansion in 2018 without hotel rooms available.

-Manchester Airport itself
Tomorrow, we loose about 4-5 stands ready for the rebuild. This situation will not really change for a few years, with new stands opening but old ones closing behind them. T3 is full and unfit for purpose, T1 not much better and T2 the one loosing it's stands. Where can expansion go if we don't have the space for it? Certainly not much room for more based aircraft, put it that way.

-World scene
Trump, North Korea, Syria, Russia and others, the world is reaching a strange new point in its cycle, what affect will all this have.

I think we will have to accept we are going to see growth start to slow, by some margin, as there now seems too much going against growth at this time. The Eastern market is bucking that trend for us, but for how long? Again, only so much capacity that market can take also.

It will come as no shock I'm mr 'glass half full guy', but even I'm looking at 2018 in normal glasses, not the rose tinted variety this time.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Good post, User.

And we can add the uncertainty of a General Election to near-term corporate planning now as well!

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

What i would like to see;

Thomson:
I have a feeling they will continue to expand slowly at MAN in 2018. There is rumours that they are going to launch couple new short haul routes for 2018 and a new long haul for summer. I would like them to see add a couple more long haul routes out of MAN for the year.
Thomas Cook:
I can very much see them adding another frame to MAN be it short or long haul who knows. If it is short it will help them grow again on the short haul but it seems from TCX the focus is very much on long haul and keeping Norwegian away from MAN.
Jet2:
Re aviador: I don't see long haul for the foreseeable future as they do have a lot of expansion on. The A330 i think will return next year but the contract etc has not yet been signed; look at the routes for next year, TFS has seen reduction yet most flights have 1.30 on ground, ACE again has 2 1.30 turn arounds, RHO is there along with PMI. So i think it will return. As for expansion and new routes as discussed in the Jet2 thread i can see VRN been added but what else i'm unsure; more greek? Just can't see long haul for now.
Monarch:
Will they add another airframe? I would like to see them expand into more greek routes think that is the missing gap in their network; CFU, HER, ZTH etc. Maybe they could add JSI and get that out of MAN before Jet2.
easyJet and Ryanair:
Would like to see them add a frame each. Isn't there an agreement with Ryanair to add another airframe?
Virgin:
I would like to see them expand more at MAN keeping Norwegian at bay. However as pointed out my Aviador i don't think that will be the case and maybe they'll retreat back to what they were doing before this expansion. JFK i'm surprised at with DL feed but hey ho.
Egypt:
I do think, hopefully, 2018 will continue to see this recover especially Sharm El Sheikh. It is a very lovely resort and i hope that it recovers well. MAN at one point had around 14/15 weekly flights in Winter so lets hope they can get back to that figure.
World:
Well. Erm. Yeah.

 

[Jerry]

I find it interesting that no one mentioned Flybe in 2 of the previous posts.

 

[Land23R]

User, (with an emoticon smile if I can add it), I doubt you will ever join those of us who give a good impression of being in 'the glass half empty' brigade.

2018 is a really difficult one to predict, but a few random thoughts:

Jet2: Proposed increase in based a/c this summer not happening but more seats with larger a/c. Was accommodating any more based a/c at MAN an issue and how influential was MAG in Jet2 starting a STN base? Will their focus now be on building up that and the new BHX base?

Virgin: In the light of the frequency reductions - (is MCO only operating 4 days of the week for part of next winter? When I looked at flights for late Feb/early March, it looked that way, or has March not been fully loaded?) - I would be quite pleased if we retain SFO and BOS for s18 with similar frequencies on all their routes.
Q: Has LHR & LGW seen any frequency reductions for winter?

TCX: How are their US loads looking for this summer and how strong are they financially to withstand any downturn this summer on long haul and short haul without major cut-backs? Hopefully, their modest CPT operation will be successful.

US carriers: Anybody's guess. I fancy United will be here with a B757 to EWR, but what about AA/BA?
Will we see Level on a couple of routes, and if so, is it good bye to AA?

Easyjet / Ryanair: I will take a lot of convincing that there isn't an issue with RYR basing more a/c because of the T3 capacity problem. Whether they could squeeze a 10th a/c in for S18 may depend on flybe/loganair scheduling. Fortunately, RYR are very obliging at using non-based a/c for a good proportion of their MAN operation. Possibly still some opportunities in the Baltic states and Poland for new routes and increased frequency.

Similar reservations about EZY if we are losing stands. They will have 12 based from July this summer.
For s18, will they be prepared to fly more services with non-based a/c?

General: Charlie Cornish was quoted as saying that growth could fall to 2% before picking up again. Was that just a reaction to BREXIT and the general economic climate he envisaged for aviation, or was it a tacit acknowledgement that growth could be hindered at MAN due to capacity constraints during part of the TP?

Going East: Will we finally see BKK, and if so, will it be Thai, TOM, TCX or a lo-cost airline?
And how about the long expected PVG? Is it preferable to let HU bed in their daily PEK (if it continues daily after September) before someone starts PVG? And what would be the impact on CX's daily service if any?

More questions than predictions I'm afraid, but a sign of the times.

Edit: Oh, and India??

 

[Aceshigh]

I find it interesting that no one mentioned Flybe in 2 of the previous posts.

Yes given CAA stats I agree !

 

[Yawner]

To be fair, even if there are few new services in 2018 there could still be significant growth just through new 2017 services and based aircraft operating the full year rather than just the part year.

If there is growth stand capacity shouldn't be an issue. You don't need 100 stands to have 100 based aircraft. Based aircraft can overnight elsewhere, be flying overnight (e.g. Transatlantics) or simply parked off stand. We've already seen the airport and airlines managing this. Ryanair with away based ops, Jet2 and Flybe with less based but still big seat increases this Summer and also Jet2 using their hangar space. There have also been stand adjustments to increase usage. MAN still has more extreme options available such as creative parking as used in the CL final or concreting the viewing park. It's funny hearing things like Vueling and Ryanair have been denied growth due to lack of space posted in various places.

 

[User001]

In all fairness, Ryanair did want 10 based this summer, but T3 can't handle it.

Security is a pinch point, and the departure lounge simply cannot handle the volume it has, it's know to be on the verge of being a H&S risk, the recent evacuation of T3 raised a few eyebrows just for starters.

 

[Yawner]

That's a fair point. I wasn't considering terminal capacities. I guess operating some flights from another terminal would create more problems than it solves so some constraints may apply at T3 in particular.

 

[Dobbo]

I feel optimistic, but there are headwinds.

The UK I feel is fairly resilient, and I don't think that Brexit, if it happens, will be on a basis likely to cause catastrophic consequences. The UK's growth remains good, the EU is starting to move in the right direction and the global economy is picking up. On the topic of the election, it is short lived and is likely to result in a larger majority for the Tories. Irrespective of your political belief, having a strong government with a large majority is positive.

The main risk as I see it is geopolitics. The situation in the eastern Mediterranean, Russia, the Korean peninsular and Sino-US relations are of concern. However, some may help others work together. For example, the US and China may be brought together in order to resolve the North Korea problem. Russia and their "interventions" may be more of a concern and are closer to home.

How does this all affect MAN?

Well, China continues to grow so this may feed into inbound traffic on the PEK and HKG routes. It may lead to PVG and others following in the next 1-2 years. I expect more far east services to follow in due course, with BKK specifically and perhaps TYO.

The Indian sub-continent remains the major gap to fill. We have seen the opportunity MAN-BOM.

I think people will start to realise that the US is not on a road to becoming a pariah of itself. Hopefully that will lead to MAN holding on to the existing services and steady growth. TCX and VS are still ones to watch, can the likes of SFO and LAX be sustained all year?

Africa is looking like a growth market, if some direct flights can shake of the MEB3.

Against the backdrop of this, we have the TP. If MAN is to have global aspirations, this facility needs to be fit for purpose. Can the TP deliver on this...

 

[ethanegcc]

2018 Predictions/Aspirations

The situation has changed a lot recently; from decreasing demand for travel to the US, to worsening geopolitics relations between major powers such as Russia and the US. This Winter will be one of our most poor performances transatlantic for a while, with not even daily connections to JFK. However, I think that the UK economy is extremely resilient and has proved so over this period of uncertainty, our region also possesses a huge propensity to travel which helps profoundly in our route development. I think that Manchester will continue to grow, just slower and in different markets.

Transatlantic: This is going to be our largest slowdown. My wishes/predictions:
-I would like to see VS continue with SFO and BOS for Summer 2018 (or swap BOS for another destination)
-I would like to see American Airlines establish ORD as a better connection point and expand to year-round operation

Apart from that, stagnation is likely and I would be happy to see our current route network continue.

European: This market is still growing and I think that it will continue to do so.
-Low Cost Airlines: I would like to see continued expansion to different unserved destinations across Europe. Judging by the current route expansion, one or two routes per season would be nice (FR would probably need to use unbased a/c)
-Hub Airlines: I would like to see Finnair expand to double-daily mainline equipment, and Austrian expand to daily mainline equipment year-round

Africa: This has great potential for Manchester. With our first hub connection (Casablanca) established with encouraging words, and Morocco going from strength to strength, I would like to see (on top of Air Arabia Maroc route):
-continued commitment from RAM, perhaps expansion to five-weekly?
-Thomas Cook CPT route to expand to a longer season, higher frequency in W18

I think a mid-African hub is still too much to expect at the moment, but could be on the horizon in the future.

Middle East: Currently, an extremely strong market, that continues to grow. My wishes:
-Saudia go year-round on Riyadh, making daily operation year-round.
-Kuwait Airways go ahead with Kuwait route, adding another connection
-Continued expansion in frequency/aircraft on the MEB3, but with EK facing a couple of headwinds, and BHX looking like it is losing their morning service, possibly from Etihad or Qatar?

Asia: Hong Kong is booming, with 92% load factors in February, and Cathay increasing to daily. We will also have Hainan daily in summer, so to have HKG and PEK at daily frequency is a huge coup that cannot be underestimated. My wishes/predictions:
-Shanghai/Bangkok: with growth stagnating transatlantic, it would be nice to get one of these much needed routes in Summer 2018
-HKG and PEK remain daily for S18, hoping Hainan go atleast April-October with daily frequency, or 789.
-A move on India would be nice, although I won't hold my breath

 

[Seasider]

I feel optimistic, but there are headwinds.

The UK I feel is fairly resilient, and I don't think that Brexit, if it happens, will be on a basis likely to cause catastrophic consequences..........

What makes you think that Brexit will not happen?
The reason the election has been called is to give the Government a stronger position in the negotiations.

 

[Seasider]

In my previous post I reduced the quote to the one topic but my question seems to have got caught up in it.

 

[Dobbo]

Hi Seasider - I've picked it up. In response to your question, there is no reason. The election has been called for a number of reasons, one of which I'm sure is to give TM a stronger hand both home and abroad in Brexit negotiations.

 

[David_itl]

I'll be more than happy if the summer 2017 flight programme can be replicated for 2018 with perhaps a slight stretching of the seasonality of some routes (well the long-haul ones in particular). 2019 is when things should have settled down a bit more on a global scale with 2020 being the year when EU/UK airlines would have had time to digest the Brexit impact.