2018 predictions

[David_itl]

This makes a lot of sense, albeit I'm not sure how well LH do with connecting traffic at MAN? I assume it is mostly Africa?

It's been a few years since Lufthansa had an article to themselves in the Evening News. But here's one from the time when they had a Berlin service in 2012:

"The current most popular onward connections for Lufthansa’s Manchester passengers include Jeddah, Beijing, Shanghai, Mumbai, Naples, Budapest, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, Cairo, Bangkok, Delhi, Moscow and Dubai."

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/business/business-news/new-berlin-route-boosts-links-689284

In the dim and distant past, I remember a printed article that said 10% of the connecting passengers for them were flying long-haul business class but can't find an online source (it was when they had around 400,000 passengers a year out of MAN)

Would the ERJ have the range for TFS? Where could BACF realistically go next (they should aim to add rotations to where they currently go).

I reckon it could do it (quoted range is 4500km with MAN-TFS being around 3050km). Interesting places could be Varna summer /Plovidiv winter in Bulgaria. Graz as alternative Austrian destination. It would be good to add frequencies but that may fall into having 1 aircragy based all week so you could have 3 or 4 destinations offered as short-city breaks for 3 or 4 days

 

[User001]

If Cityflyer had a week long base, I’d like to see them do more niche big city routes with their profile and aircraft size.

Milan Linate, Paris Orly, Berlin Tegel and more London City.

Apart from that, bulking out what they already have would go far, with more spacing on flights to give 2/4 night breaks too.

 

[Dobbo]

Re BACF - more rotations on existing routes should be a priority, with the sort of niche city routes User mentions as a "next step" for the FF base in Manchester (would also help AA, QR, CX long haul). I'd add Rome, Madrid, Dublin, Belfast, and Edinburgh/Glasgow to this list.

If BACF are having success, perhaps the week long base is realistic. I do wonder whether the mystery Bombardier order is for IAG...

Re Lufthansa, I'm sure they cart more than 400k per year from MAN... I bet its around 20k a month to each of MUC and FRA (circa 450k per annum).

I wonder how the connections have changed, since the 2012 article cited by @David_itl direct flights have started to Jeddah, Beijing and

Hong Kong, and Bangkok, Shanghai, Mumbai and Delhi cannot be far behind.​

Johannesburg and Moscow I can understand, but for a variety of reasons I doubt we see a MAN service for some time.

I cannot explain Naples, Bucharest, Cairo and Dubai! Very strange!
​

 

[Jerry]

. I do wonder whether the mystery Bombardier order is for IAG.

The BACF fleet is quite young so if it was for IAG then I'd imagine it was more for Aer Lingus and Vueling.
If BACF wanted to operate more flights in the week they wouldn't need to base, they could position from LCY or W pattern.

 

[Dobbo]

Quite right @Jerry - I do wonder whether if it is IAG (and this is a big if) they might cascade some of the ERJ from BACF to another brand. For a MAN example, Iberia could use some to copy TAP's routes to MAN for South American connections.

All conjecture!

 

[Jerry]

Quite right @Jerry - I do wonder whether if it is IAG (and this is a big if) they might cascade some of the ERJ from BACF to another brand. For a MAN example, Iberia could use some to copy TAP's routes to MAN for South American connections.

All conjecture!

Personally if BACF were to get the C Series then I'd have it would be for non LCY ops and just keep LCY as an E jet base. I think the E jets will stay at BACF and if any of the other IAG airlines wanted smaller aircraft then if the C Series has been ordered by IAG then they'll go for that rather than swapping aircraft about between the airlines.

 

[Aceshigh]

BACF is actually an interesting one.

Lots of adverts coincidently on the TV at the moment for the BA Holiday brand.

Presumbly as Heathrow is a "business only airport", all that brand marketing must be for Gatwick and the BACF fleet from Manchester / Birmingham etc (cough)

Joking apart , BA still have some brand loyalty as per Thomas Cook And TUI etc.

3 or 4 based aircraft offering holidays under the BA banner for the more discerning passenger would I suspect be a money spinner?

 

[Land23R]

Some interesting comments about BACF and possible city routes. Orly would seem a good option, and Madrid because of the S America connections (is it served only by Ryanair just now?).

I'm not so sure though about the likes of Milan and Rome, which are currently served by more than 1 carrier and Berlin almost double daily by easy jet. Opportunities for business passengers perhaps, but I just think it could lead to over capacity and the inevitable cut-backs by existing airlines ion the routes. (happened with Madrid and more recently Hamburg I believe). With the coverage MAN has, it becomes more difficult to seek out niche destinations, so it's often a case of identifying routes that show greater demand than existing capacity meets. Is that true of Berlin, Milan and Rome I wonder? It's true different airports in a city may be involved but I think Orly may be the one where that is particularly relevant.

 

[User001]

Madrid has a daily Ryanair and 3 weekly Iberia Express.

In terms of my other city airports:

Orly is, to me, a better airport for getting to Paris. Easier and quicker to get into the city or onto the motorway network.

Berlin Tegel is one of the most requested routes amongst airlines. People just don’t seem to like Schönefeld but have no other choice.

Milan Linate. Inner city Airport, better transport links into the city and so on. MXP can be used for Connections and the Lakes, Bergamo as the low cost point of entry while LIN can be for Milan business and leisure.

For Rome, both airports are already served so no issue there.

 

[Dobbo]

Is the niche for BACF not a subset of a city pair's overall clientele rather than the it's pair being unserved?

In that instance, the airports of Rome fall into the same category as those in and around Milan, Berlin etc. Albeit BACF can pick the one that best serves the needs of their customers?

 

[Scottie Dog]

Some very interesting thoughts and suggestions.

Regrettably I have nothing to add at this stage, however I do appreciate all of your input. Thank you.