Random Stuff!!

[aviatorconcorde]

Is it likely to be an absolute majority?

it’s possible at the time of typing.

Great result for Wales - lots of votes for pro union parties and plaid locked out of government.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thanks for the update.

 

[Jerry]

Is it likely to be an absolute majority?

At the moment
Labour 30 seats
Conservatives potentially 16 or 15 on 12
Plaid potentially 13 or 12 on 9
Lib Dems 1
South Wales Central and East regions yet to declare but Central likely to return 2 Cons and 2 Plaid MS and East potentially either the same or one of them gets 1 the other 2 and another party like UKIP or Greens get 1 seat.
Pretty sure the government will be Labour and Lib Dems which is ironic as vote wise the Lib Dems have been pretty wiped out.
As for @aviatorconcorde comment about Plaid yes it's a blow for the independence movement but a lot of the recent polling gains have been with Labour voter's and their is an actual pro indy Labour movement working to convert the party from within and the issue of independence isn't going to go away especially with the campaign group of YesCymru getting stronger but no doubt the task has become harder but what happens in Scotland may well help in the long run.
Looking at these elections as a whole it's not good for the union as you have a Senedd in Wales with a super majority for mandate for more autonomy for Wales, a Parliament in Scotland with a majority for an independence referendum and in Westminster a government that wants to undo devolution and bring more powers back to Westminster. 3 countries going in different political directions isn't exactly a recipe for harmony.
I'll post the full results later today.
In the meantime I'm going to try and get 2 hours sleep before work!

 

[aviatorconcorde]

At the moment
Labour 30 seats
Conservatives potentially 16 or 15 on 12
Plaid potentially 13 or 12 on 9
Lib Dems 1
South Wales Central and East regions yet to declare but Central likely to return 2 Cons and 2 Plaid MS and East potentially either the same or one of them gets 1 the other 2 and another party like UKIP or Greens get 1 seat.
Pretty sure the government will be Labour and Lib Dems which is ironic as vote wise the Lib Dems have been pretty wiped out.
As for @aviatorconcorde comment about Plaid yes it's a blow for the independence movement but a lot of the recent polling gains have been with Labour voter's and their is an actual pro indy Labour movement working to convert the party from within and the issue of independence isn't going to go away especially with the campaign group of YesCymru getting stronger but no doubt the task has become harder but what happens in Scotland may well help in the long run.
Looking at these elections as a whole it's not good for the union as you have a Senedd in Wales with a super majority for mandate for more autonomy for Wales, a Parliament in Scotland with a majority for an independence referendum and in Westminster a government that wants to undo devolution and bring more powers back to Westminster. 3 countries going in different political directions isn't exactly a recipe for harmony.
I'll post the full results later today.
In the meantime I'm going to try and get 2 hours sleep before work!

I think if you wanted independence you’d vote for plaid - sure they’ll be a few pro indy voting for labour for whatever reason but Labour are a pro unionist party and I don’t see that changing. We have had a party wanting more autonomy in power for 22 years so little there has changed either. If Wales really wanted independence we’d see plaid surging along with 20 or so seats instead of going backwards like they have.

Scotland a bit more difficult to explain. As of now though the unionists are leading the popular constituency vote about 51/49 - i agree another referendum may have to happen but there is no guarantees now it can be won.

Westminster can’t undo devolution - that’s something that’s been made up in separatist circles.

 

[Jerry]

I think if you wanted independence you’d vote for plaid - sure they’ll be a few pro indy voting for labour for whatever reason but Labour are a pro unionist party and I don’t see that changing. We have had a party wanting more autonomy in power for 22 years so little there has changed either. If Wales really wanted independence we’d see plaid surging along with 20 or so seats instead of going backwards like they have.

You'd have thought so but it does appear that there's a significant part of the independence movement who refuse to shift parties and vote for Plaid. Part of it i believe is that in the left wing voters in Wales it's ingrained in them that voting any other party other than Labour let's the Tories in and the Labour Party use that as a voting tactic and often chastise Plaid voters for voting Plaid in a constituency they either lose or fail to gain.
It'll be interesting to see if Labour push for more powers as stated in their manifesto and how Westminster reacts to that. Especially Justice and Policing.

Westminster can’t undo devolution - that’s something that’s been made up in sepa

Westminster can and are. Only takes an act of Parliament.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

You'd have thought so but it does appear that there's a significant part of the independence movement who refuse to shift parties and vote for Plaid. Part of it i believe is that in the left wing voters in Wales it's ingrained in them that voting any other party other than Labour let's the Tories in and the Labour Party use that as a voting tactic and often chastise Plaid voters for voting Plaid in a constituency they either lose or fail to gain.
It'll be interesting to see if Labour push for more powers as stated in their manifesto and how Westminster reacts to that. Especially Justice and Policing.

Westminster can and are. Only takes an act of Parliament.

It was strange plaid lost the rhonnda then if that is the case.

I will caveat I am no fan of westminster as I have said many times before, but westminster can vote to start a war with russia if they fancy. It doesn’t mean they should or will.

do you think considering the way the independence movements are going the UK government are really going to start removing devolution?

 

[Jerry]

It was strange plaid lost the rhonnda then if that is the case.

I'm told that there was unique constituency circumstances to that. Personally I think maybe she was a bit of a protest vote in 2016. Who knows with the Valleys.

do you think considering the way the independence movements are going the UK government are really going to start removing devolution?

Personally yes. They've already started with IM Bill. This Westminster government only sees power belonging in one place London. It'll be interesting to see what happens as it's in Labour's manifesto for constitutional reform and they may well go to Westminster and say we have a mandate for it and Westminster will be faced with WG and SG having mandates for different things. I suspect that the Scottish independence referendum might end up in the Supreme Court and that could have an effect on whether powers are devolved upon request by Cardiff or not.

 

[Jerry]

Senedd Cymru 2021 election results
Overall seats
Labour 30 +1
Conservatives 16 +5
Plaid Cymru 13 +1
Lib Dems 1 no change
UKIP 0 -7

Constituency vote %
Labour - 39.9%
Conservatives - 26.1%
Plaid Cymru - 20.3%
Lib Dems - 4.9%
Greens - 1.6%
Abolish 1.5%
Reform - 1.5%
UKIP - 0.8%
Propel - 0.6%

Regional vote
Labour - 36.17%
Conservatives - 25.08%
Plaid Cymru - 20.72%
Lib Dems - 4.34%
Greens - 3.58%
Abolish - 3.73%
UKIP - 1.56%
Reform - 1.06%
Propel -0.88%

 

[Jerry]

Conservatives 16 +5
Plaid Cymru 13 +1

21 votes in the North Wales Region was the difference between Conservatives getting 15 seats instead of 16 they got and Plaid getting 14 and instead of the 13 they have!
One noticeable absence from the 6th Senedd is UKIP and AWAP who were both wiped out and despite AWAP in particular high profile they got less votes than 2016!

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Surprised how badly propel did.

 

[Jerry]

Surprised how badly propel did.

They got about 3000 constituency votes in Cardiff West and 5000 regional votes in South Wales Central. Despite Neil McEvoy claims the Plaid vote wasn't all for him as Plaid got over 6000 i believe. Drakeford increased his majority by 10000!
Many in the Senedd will no doubt be relieved to see him gone as he caused a lot of trouble.

 

[Jerry]

Just looking at the regional ballot and there definitely is support for autonomy in Wales so it'll be interesting to see how the UK government reacts especially with the majority for independence referendum in Scotland. Looks like PM Johnson wants to hold a 'Team UK' summit and has invited the FMs of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and the Deputy FM of Northern Ireland.
This is the percentages from the regional ballot that indicates support for type of constitutional change in Wales.
1.1m people voted:
Independence (Plaid, Green, Propel & Gwlad) - 26.7%
'Radical' federalism (Lab, LD) - 40.5%
Status Quo (Cons, Ref) - 26.2%
Abolish (AWA, UKIP) - 5.3%

 

[Jerry]

Mark Drakeford is demanding Home Rule for Wales in order to stop independence but my understanding of Home Rule is that Wales would be independent but UK would have a say in Defence and Foreign Affairs so essentially Dominion status like Australia, Ireland, Canada and New Zealand pre WW2.
Autonomy or Devo Max is what it sounds like Drakeford is talking about but what is amazing is that even after 130 years have gone by we are still talking about full self government for Wales in one form or the other.
Personally I'd be shocked if Tories gave up any more powers and I wouldn't be surprised if a General election happens sooner than later so the Tories can get their own mandate to tell Scotland and Wales no.
I'd expect though that Devo max or Home Rule would include control of APD as part of fiscal control.

Drakeford demands home rule to halt independence

First Minister Mark Drakeford has called on Boris Johnson to ensure home rule for Cymru in a bid to halt the breakup of the United Kingdom. Drakeford has accepted an invitation from the UK Prime Minister to attend a so-called 'Team UK' summit of the four nations to discuss recovery in the wake...

www.gwalianews.cymru

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Carwyn Jones and Mark Drakeford have always been keen on devo max/federalism.

wales may get more powers in the coming years as a sweetener if a scottish referendum does happen.

 

[Jerry]

wales may get more powers in the coming years as a sweetener if a scottish referendum does happen.

Personally i'm sceptical but if Scotland does become independent there's the possibility that that in itself will drive Wales to independence, essentially England scraps the Senedd and reabsorbs Wales as part of England again or England gives Wales it's independence, i think the latter is more likely if there's a Labour government in charge.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The current Labour leader at Westminster seems as keen on preserving the Union as the Conservative leadership.

 

[Jerry]

The current Labour leader at Westminster seems as keen on preserving the Union as the Conservative leadership.

Yes but if Scotland does achieve independence then the UK as we know it is over and i may be biased but i expect that a Labour Prime Minister and a Labour First Minister would be more likely to come to an amicable separation than a Conservative PM and Labour FM. I know leading Welsh Labour figure Carwyn Jones has stated doubts about the viability of an England and Wales union without Scotland. Of course Northern Ireland might still be included but they are as always a special case due to it's history.

 

[superking]

Mark drakeford has been confirmed as Wales FM in the seneed.

 

[Jerry]

Mark drakeford has been confirmed as Wales FM in the seneed.

There was no other rival candidate this time so pretty much a formality for him to win the nomination. Will be interesting to see if he stands down in 2 and half years like he said he would.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1392785675582312448

Support for abolishing the Senedd at 27% (+2)