Random Stuff!!

[TheLocalYokel]

Their priority is mainly south east England. Always will be.

The south-east is only part of southern England.

I probably would not disagree with your assertion and not just with a Conservative government. However, it's always North v South which suggests that the entire south is looked after which, as I have tried to explain, is not the case at all. If the slogan was South East England versus the Rest of England Divide that would be more accurate, but to include a largely rural/semi-rural area as part of the 'South' in this slogan is factually incorrect. North v South is a catchier sound bite - my suggestion is a bit of a mouthful even though it is apposite.

For example, Penzance is 80 miles further from London than is Manchester which seems to be the de facto capital of the Northern Powerhouse and both rail and road connectivity are far superior from the capital to Manchester than to Cornwall.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

You could say the same about unionists who despite all the evidence especially during the pandemic of how the union isn't working for Wales and will no doubt stunt any recovery.
To me and many other pro indy supporter's Wales being independent is Wales finally becoming a normal country. Independence is normal. It's also about having the ability to make the lives of its people better and concentrate on it's priorities.
Cardiff Airport is just a minute example of how the union hamstrings Wales. The WG doesn't have the ability to cut or scrap APD which could make it more attractive to airlines especially on routes that are marginal.
As for taxes no one knows what the tax regime will be as that is decided by governments depending on their fiscal priorities but at the moment Wales tax revenue per head is higher than New Zealand and Wales isn't an independent country.

I completely agree about the APD issues, i have consistently said about the issues and failings of the Union.

It’s all well and good for New Zealand being a 3 hour flight from the next major country but Wales major trading partner is right next store. The Welsh economy is so dependent on England on a scale people don’t even realise. If an independent Wales has massive tax hikes which it probably will, they’ll be a massive brain drain to England. I know my employer would likely be off if so, the same thing would happen if Scotland went independent. Wales would also be landed with a fair chunk of the British debt pile as scotland would be. England would in effect be a future competitor, which would out compete wales massively for business.

It might sound a good idea for moral reasons, but financially it’s a disaster like Brexit will be.

Wales is stronger and better off in the British Union.

 

[Jerry]

Wales is stronger and better off in the British Union.

That's just simply not true and we really need to get away from this narrative that we are uniquely poor, stupid and so useless as a people and country that we can't do what every other country in the world does and run it's own affairs and that only London knows best and that we live on their charity.
Yes Wales trades with England but it also trade's with other countries around the world and who knows what the tax rates will be in the future even in the UK especially when the Tories go into austerity over drive and need money for the deficit that they'll be obsessed with.
The example for Wales is all over the world from Estonia to Iceland to Georgia to New Zealand to Ireland that shows Wales will be fine as an independent country.
Interestingly the state of Wales blog made some predictions for post independence Wales.

After the UK: The Impact of the End of the Union

(Title Image: Holiday Property Bond) Last but not least in this "After the UK" series, a look at some of

stateofwales.com

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I note that in the Westminster Division today a number of MPs representing Welsh constituencies voted on the statutory instrument, Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No.4) Regulations 2020 - in other words the forthcoming lockdown in England.

What interest to their constituents is this purely English matter? No English elected representatives have any say in the Welsh Government's legislation on this or any other subject.

​

 

[Jerry]

What interest to their constituents is this purely English matter? No English elected representatives have any say in the Welsh Government's legislation on this or any other subject.

I expect that Plaid MPs abstained alongside the SNP but the problem with the Conservative and Labour MPs is that although they sit in Welsh seats they are essentially part of English parties. There is no Welsh Conservative and Labour parties that are separate from the main parties, so they don't have that mentality of being separate and so vote with their English colleague's on English matters as if they were English of which many of them actually are! Especially some of the Tory MPs!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I expect that Plaid MPs abstained alongside the SNP but the problem with the Conservative and Labour MPs is that although they sit in Welsh seats they are essentially part of English parties. There is no Welsh Conservative and Labour parties that are separate from the main parties, so they don't have that mentality of being separate and so vote with their English colleague's on English matters as if they were English of which many of them actually are! Especially some of the Tory MPs!

Is the Labour Party really an 'English' party? Traditionally South Wales was a Labour heartland and Labour also used to have a lot of support in Scotland. Obviously the Labour Party will have more MPs and more members in England than in Wales because of the huge disparity in relative population numbers.

Three DUP members voted against the statutory instrument today. Plaid and SNP seem not to have voted which I believe is to their credit.

The non-'English' votes today made no difference to the result but there could come a time in the future where the government of the day has a narrow majority and is defeated on a purely English matter by the opposition parties joining forces with Plaid and SNP. Although the SNP does not usually vote on England-only matters Nicola Sturgeon has said in the past that would not necessarily always be the case.

This is another of those many anomalies that are thrown up by the unsatisfactory system of government in the UK. Either we have a federal-type system or we don't. The current halfway house is neither fish nor fowl.

 

[Jerry]

Is the Labour Party really an 'English' party? Traditionally South Wales was a Labour heartland and Labour also used to have a lot of support in Scotland. Obviously the Labour Party will have more MPs and more members in England than in Wales because of the huge disparity in relative population numbers.

'Welsh' Labour doesn't exist as a separate party it's just a branch of the Labour Party registered in England it's the same for Scottish Labour.
Yes Labour have been strong in Wales and Scotland but it is as the Labour Party one party run from England and not 3 separate political parties in an alliance.

 

[Jerry]

Although the SNP does not usually vote on England-only matters Nicola Sturgeon has said in the past that would not necessarily always be the case

It tends to be on matters that would have some sort of effect on Scotland ie if there was a Barnett consequence involved.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Yes Labour have been strong in Wales and Scotland but it is as the Labour Party one party run from England and not 3 separate political parties in an alliance.

I meant to mention the blog that you linked the other day: After the UK: Impact of the End of the Union - State of Wales.

There are some interesting thoughts although inevitably no more than a sketch because of length constraints and from the perspective of one in favour of independence.

I noted the reference to Cornwall as a separate nation along with Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and England. I suppose that was included to indicate solidarity with Mebyon Kernow. The writer still thinks there is a place for Cardiff City, Swansea City and Newport County in the English Football League. Perhaps a football version of rugby's Pro-14 might be more likely in time although without Italian teams.

The writer alluded to the strengthening links between Wales and the Republic of Ireland. In fact, an independent Wales might well join forces with Ireland and Scotland (we can safely assume that if Wales gains independence so too would Scotland) in some form of association between the Celtic nations. I've read arguments that go further with a full-blown confederation or union proposed. Were that to happen Wales would be leaving one union for another, although proponents would no doubt argue that Wales would have a louder voice in a Celtic union.

The blog contains some fascinating and enticing suggestions but I'd love to listen to the writer being cross-examined by someone with a far greater grasp of the subject than I possess which is minimal at best.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

I meant to mention the blog that you linked the other day: After the UK: Impact of the End of the Union - State of Wales.

There are some interesting thoughts although inevitably no more than a sketch because of length constraints and from the perspective of one in favour of independence.

I noted the reference to Cornwall as a separate nation along with Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and England. I suppose that was included to indicate solidarity with Mebyon Kernow. The writer still thinks there is a place for Cardiff City, Swansea City and Newport County in the English Football League. Perhaps a football version of rugby's Pro-14 might be more likely in time although without Italian teams.

The writer alluded to the strengthening links between Wales and the Republic of Ireland. In fact, an independent Wales might well join forces with Ireland and Scotland (we can safely assume that if Wales gains independence so too would Scotland) in some form of association between the Celtic nations. I've read arguments that go further with a full-blown confederation or union proposed. Were that to happen Wales would be leaving one union for another, although proponents would no doubt argue that Wales would have a louder voice in a Celtic union.

The blog contains some fascinating and enticing suggestions but I'd love to listen to the writer being cross-examined by someone with a far greater grasp of the subject than I possess which is minimal at best.

Wales will always be a poor coubtd

Wouldn’t that involve two separate referendums though?

I think that would be way too much change for people to handle in one go. Maybe over a period of 10 years yeah. Although wales will still have to have some sort of union with england to ensure things still flow freely as Wales will still be very dependent economically on england.

 

[Jerry]

Wales will always be a poor coubtd

Wales is a rich country, it's just the people that are poor.

Although wales will still have to have some sort of union

And whatever future relationship we have would be the Wales decision not imposed on us. The country could decide on what is best for it and not another country.

 

[Jerry]

The writer alluded to the strengthening links between Wales and the Republic of Ireland.

I know this is a priority for the current WG. Ireland is our second closest neighbour, a pretty big trading partner for Wales and we have close culture links and many people in Wales have Irish ancestry and parts of Wales are closer to Dublin geographically than they are to London. I know many people mention a Celtic union personally I would expect it to be something like Benelux where the countries cooperate on various things like education and science and defence rather than a political union like the UK is.
The State of Wales blog is an interesting read but obviously it is one man's opinion but I do find what he writes to be reasonable.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Wales is a rich country, it's just the people that are poor.


And whatever future relationship we have would be the Wales decision not imposed on us. The country could decide on what is best for it and not another country.

There would have to be some sort of deal with England. The Welsh nationalists down in Carmarthen may want to Wales into an economic waste land but us in the east most certainly don’t.

 

[rollo]

Just wondering what currency an independent Wales would have given that without a central bank and its own currency it will never be truly independent and be able to raise borrowing on the international money markets to cover its debt certainly at a much higher intrest rate than the UK or more likely just England in this circumstance as Scotland would almost have certainly departed as well.

Only asking.

 

[Jerry]

Just wondering what currency an independent Wales would have given that without a central bank and its own currency it will never be truly independent and be able to raise borrowing on the international money markets to cover its debt certainly at a much higher intrest rate than the UK or more likely just England in this circumstance as Scotland would almost have certainly departed as well.

Only asking.

Whatever currency Wales would want. Personally I'd prefer a Welsh pound or dollar with our own central bank which gives any government much better fiscal options an example of that is today with the Bank of England buying £150 billion worth of UK treasury bonds.
Other options is keeping the pound as it is or use the Euro but then the WG would lose some financial flexibility.
Another option would be a currency union with England and Scotland but again that loses some financial flexibility for any government.
Plenty of small countries around Europe have their own currency and central bank Wales and Scotland would be no different to them.

Do people think that England would struggle to be an independent country without being in a union with Scotland and Wales and NI?

 

[aviatorconcorde]

There are strict criteria for the Euro now which I don’t think Wales would meet. A welsh pound would be more likely, completely pointless leaving the pound and joining the euro as nothing would be gained despite Welsh Nationalists desires to delete any association with England.

Wales would have to join the EU first which it voted to leave just 4 years ago.

If we’re going to go independent, lets do it properly and not hand control over to Europe.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Just wondering what currency an independent Wales would have given that without a central bank and its own currency it will never be truly independent and be able to raise borrowing on the international money markets to cover its debt certainly at a much higher intrest rate than the UK or more likely just England in this circumstance as Scotland would almost have certainly departed as well.

Only asking.

It would most certainly be at a higher rate than England/current UK. Hence how small business pays a higher interest rate on smaller loans than large conglomerates do on bonds worth millions.

That’s nothing against the cause for Independence, but England/current UK would have better ability to service debt (due to more tax revenue and a larger economy) so lower rates.

 

[Jerry]

There are strict criteria for the Euro now which I don’t think Wales would meet. A welsh pound would be more likely, completely pointless leaving the pound and joining the euro as nothing would be gained despite Welsh Nationalists desires to delete any association with England.

Wales would have to join the EU first which it voted to leave just 4 years ago.

If we’re going to go independent, lets do it properly and not hand control over to Europe.

You don't have to be a member of the EU or part of the Euro zone to use the Euro currency obviously using it like that means lack of financial control in certain areas. It would be no different if Wales continued to use Sterling in the same way.
And yes the market would help to decide borrowing rates but that wouldn't necessarily be high as in general Wales is a stable country.
The pro independence campaign doesn't want to delete association with England, England will always be a vital trading and strategic partner. What people like me want is Wales to finally become a sovereign nation state that can grow and prosper to benefit it's people and make their lives better. A third of children should not be living in poverty and people shouldn't have to have fear for their future if they lose their jobs or get sick etc.

 

[rollo]

To be honest Jerry I think England along with the UK as a whole is struggling anyway with roughly £2 trillion and rising of debt

Personally I would prefer the country to remain as the UK but reading the runes the movement for independence certainly seems to be growing particularly in Scotland not so sure about Wales which gets little UK wide coverage.

There seems to be a growing opinion in England in the regions including mine in the Midlands of disenfranchisement and personally as someone in Worcestershire I am consistently hearing about the south and north but never our bit and feel left behind to a degree, I think Local Yokel makes similar points regarding the southwest.

Regarding the currency the SNP were told by the government and the Bank of England in no uncertain terms that they were could use the pound if they wished but would have zero input or say on policy ie no control therefore their monetary policy (interest rates, borrowing etc.)would be in the hands of another country. The EU stated that to join the euro requires joining the EU as a pre condition and Scotlands economy would need to meet the financial requirements which at that particular time they didn't but no doubt a fudge of some sorts could be arranged given the Brexit situation.

Either way without a central bank and own currency no nation is ever going to be truly independent and like Brexit a can of worms.

 

[Jerry]

To be honest Jerry I think England along with the UK as a whole is struggling anyway with roughly £2 trillion and rising of debt

Countries have debt, it's more about the ability to service that debt and make interest payments. USA debt is off the scale but they have the ability to service it and pay the interest.

not so sure about Wales which gets little UK wide coverage.

The independence movement in Wales is growing. Last set of polls had it polling at 32% in favour and the pro independence movement YesCymru is seeing it's membership sky rocket, last time I checked it was over 13,000 members making it the second biggest political movement in Wales behind Welsh Labour who have 25,000 members and I wouldn't be surprised if it overtook them eventually.

There seems to be a growing opinion in England in the regions including mine in the Midlands of disenfranchisement and personally as someone in Worcestershire I am consistently hearing about the south and north but never our bit and feel left behind to a degree, I think Local Yokel makes similar points regarding the southwest.

Yes England itself does need to look at its structure and idk maybe look to bring back the old saxon kingdoms as part of some sort of regional devolution but Westminster might not want to give up the powers based on how they seem to be reacting to Welsh and Scottish devolution lately.

The EU stated that to join the euro

To use the Euro as

The EU stated that to join the euro requires joining the EU as a pre condition

Monaco,Vatican state, Andorra, San Marino, Montenegro and Kosovo all use the Euro as their currency without being part of the Euro zone or EU. It wouldn't be an ideal situation same as using the pound in the same way and definitely would hamstring Wales or Scotland as independent nations in what they could do especially in situations like this pandemic.
As for joining the EU itself that's definitely something that can be worked towards but for the long term future but some sort of trading relationship or customs union or even membership of EFTA should be an option for the short term.