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BRS passenger totals in 2020 and intermediate years

TheLocalYokel

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It's a bit quiet at the moment so I thought I'd ask members to speculate on the likely annual passenger totals at BRS at the end of this calendar year and at the end of the 2018, 2019 and 2020 calendar years.

It's really a bit of fun as we can't know what events might interpose themselves in the next few years that could have either a positive effect or negative effect on the numbers. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to get an idea of members' feelings on this.

If it's any help I've listed below the CAA annual passenger stats for BRS going back nearly 60 years - in millions and part millions.

1961 0.059
1962 0.070
1963 0.079
1964 0.095
1965 0.106
1966 0.136
1967 0.134
1968 0.130
1969 0.120
1970 0.152
1971 0.201
1972 0.262
1973 0.289
1974 0.184
1975 0.195
1976 0.205
1977 0.211
1978 0.233
1979 0.238
1980 0.239
1981 0.246
1982 0.261
1983 0.331
1984 0.423
1985 0.402
1986 0.469
1987 0.645
1988 0.705
1989 0.838
1990 0.774
1991 0.783
1992 1.026
1993 1.112
1994 1.276
1995 1.430
1996 1.394
1997 1.586
1998 1.814
1999 1.966
2000 2.124
2001 2.673
2002 3.415
2003 3.887
2004 4.603
2005 5.199
2006 5.710
2007 5.884
2008 6.229
2009 5.615
2010 5.723
2011 5.768
2012 5.916
2013 6.125
2014 6.333
2015 6.781
2016 7.604
2017 8.095 (12-month running total at end of August)
 

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Jerry

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Well they hit 8 million this year so if their growth continues i'd expect 8.5 in 2018, 9 in 2019 and 9.5 by 2020 that's if they don't get any new based carriers as EZY do continue to add aircraft and i'd expect TOM to add another one before 2020 and i'm sure Ryanair will add some more routes as well.
 

Marko1

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There is a lot of variables including that wrong tree we were all barking at . All depends on easyJet and jet 2 ? I'm going for 10 mill in 2020 , not sure about next year as we not sure which tree we should have been barking at
 

TheLocalYokel

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There is a lot of variables including that wrong tree we were all barking at . All depends on easyJet and jet 2 ? I'm going for 10 mill in 2020 , not sure about next year as we not sure which tree we should have been barking at
Of course, and the airport itself didn't get it right in its master plan published a decade ago when it projected annual passengers figures for future years, although in fairness it was a lot more accurate than some other airports whose master plans were published around the same time.

I think that 2017 will finish around 8.2 million.

If there is nothing further added or lost for next year I reckon that 2018 will be in the region of 8.5/8.6 million. I doubt that next year will see the outstanding growth of recent years enjoyed by many airports and that includes BRS.

2019 and 2020 are obviously dependent upon not only how BRS progresses but also the wider situation with Brexit perhaps the major conundrum. If Brexit doesn't impact too negatively I'd be looking for 9 million, perhaps a bit more, in 2019 and edging up towards the current 10 mppa cap by the end of 2020.

I've been thinking that 2018 might not be the most propitious year for a new CEO to come on board after the great strides (re passenger number increases) of the past three years.
 

TheLocalYokel

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As it's the beginning of a new year, and good wishes to everyone for 2019, I resurrected this thread from September 2017 when I asked for suggestions regarding BRS's annual passenger totals for 2018, 2019, and 2020. The final total for 2017 came in at 8.234 million and 2018 looks as though it will finish between 8.6 and 8.7 million which was broadly in line with the estimates given in the posts in September 2017.

Rather than ask for passenger figure projections for the next few years individually (the airport recently said it expects 2019 to pass through the 9 million barrier), I thought I'd look at progress over recent years to see whether this gives any clue to the growth needed to reach the airport's projected 12 mppa total by 2025.

Assuming 2018 finishes between 8.6 and 8.7 million (the October 12-month running total was 8.603 million so the known winter growth in airline movements suggests that the final total will be above this, probably around 8.65 million) it means that in the four years 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, annual passenger numbers will have increased by over 2.3 million. That's an average rise of 575,000 passengers a year over the four-year period.

To reach 12 million by the end of 2025 would require approximately another 3.35 million passengers over the next seven years (including 2019). That works out at around an average of 480,000 a year. That's below the average for the past four years but is still a considerable target.

It looks as though 2019 will be a year of consolidation but will still see over 300,000 more passengers than 2018 if the airport's projection of 9 mppa is to be met.
 

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