Airline Analysis Blue island: The Inevitable End for a Regional Carrier?

[Aviador]

The Inevitable End for a Regional Carrier?

With Blue Islands suspending operations after 26 years, the classic dilemma of regional aviation is laid bare once again.

On one hand, this looks like an inevitable failure. The model of a small airline operating thin, lifeline routes has been broken for years, struggling with high costs, low yields, and a dependence on political will.

But it forces a fundamental question for the post-pandemic era, who is truly responsible for these routes? Are they a just a commercial business, or a piece of critical national infrastructure that the state must underwrite?

Where do we draw the line? And which regional carrier is looking at this tonight and sweating?

#blueislands

 

[paully]

Blue Islands is/was a basket case. There was little love for it, due to unreliability issues, on the islands. I feared this outcome when they suddenly announced twice daily LBA-SOU ????..Never realistic in a month of Sundays..There has been a battle royal going on between Jersey and Guernsey states re the new contracts for the lifeline ferry services..Guernsey split and went for Brittany Ferries whilst Jersey gave a strangely one sided contract in favour of DFDS..The enmity between the 2 Governments is palpable..They barely speak now and there isnt a regular RoRo between the Islands like they used to be.

Jersey tourism is down the pan, with a lot of hotels converted to posh flats..Easyjet moved in and ate everybody`s lunch..BA are still there mainly feeding long haul. and Jet2 are seasonal.Its an Island in decline.

Sadly Blue Islands fell between 2 stools. The Governments don`t subsidise lifeline transport, except Guernsey who own Aurigny and have a financial interest in the Ferry `Islander`, operated by Brittany Ferries.

The future can only be Orange, in reality..The Channel Islands can`t economically sustain multiple transport links on their own..Blue Islands should have started to develop other routes years ago which might have given them a helping hand. Too little to late..

As always its the poor hard working staff that have to pay the financial penalties for myopic management, underfunding and preening egocentric politicians...A blight on all their houses.

 

[Aviador]

You've hit the nail on the head about the core structural issues, and the LBA-SOU route is an interesting point.

On the surface, it looked like a head scratcher. But if we try to see the logic, it was likely a desperate attempt to build a network rather than just point-to-point routes? The theory might have been to connect two major regional hubs (North and South) to funnel passengers from the North of England onto their Southampton-based services to the islands, and vice-versa. In essence, trying to create a mini-hub of their own to build passenger volume and reduce reliance on just island-originating traffic.

The problem, as you rightly point out, was that this was "never realistic in a month of Sundays." The market was likely too thin, and they were trying to outmanoeuvre carriers with vastly larger networks and marketing power. It was a gamble that highlighted their strategic weakness, not their strength?

Your point about the inter-island government enmity is crucial and often overlooked. A fragmented archipelago with competing strategies is a nightmare for transport planning. When the states aren't just unaligned but actively pulling in different directions as seen with the ferry contract split, it creates an impossible environment for a small airline trying to serve the Channel Islands market.

Your final summary is the brutal truth. a case of being stuck between a rock and a hard place. The not quite the reliable, subsidised lifeline like Aurigny, and not the low-cost volume driven powerhouse like EasyJet. They were stuck in the unprofitable middle, and attempts to innovate, like LBA-SOU, were too little, too late?

It’s a textbook case of how perhaps short sighted management, political failure, and fierce competition join to sink a carrier. And as always, the staff and the islands' connectivity are the ones who pay the price. A sobering lesson for the few remaining regional operators in the UK.

#blueislands

 

[Silvercity]

Blue Islands is/was a basket case. There was little love for it, due to unreliability issues, on the islands. I feared this outcome when they suddenly announced twice daily LBA-SOU ????..Never realistic in a month of Sundays..There has been a battle royal going on between Jersey and Guernsey states re the new contracts for the lifeline ferry services..Guernsey split and went for Brittany Ferries whilst Jersey gave a strangely one sided contract in favour of DFDS..The enmity between the 2 Governments is palpable..They barely speak now and there isnt a regular RoRo between the Islands like they used to be.

Jersey tourism is down the pan, with a lot of hotels converted to posh flats..Easyjet moved in and ate everybody`s lunch..BA are still there mainly feeding long haul. and Jet2 are seasonal.Its an Island in decline.

Sadly Blue Islands fell between 2 stools. The Governments don`t subsidise lifeline transport, except Guernsey who own Aurigny and have a financial interest in the Ferry `Islander`, operated by Brittany Ferries.

The future can only be Orange, in reality..The Channel Islands can`t economically sustain multiple transport links on their own..Blue Islands should have started to develop other routes years ago which might have given them a helping hand. Too little to late..

As always its the poor hard working staff that have to pay the financial penalties for myopic management, underfunding and preening egocentric politicians...A blight on all their houses.

I couldn't believe that after many years of Condor Ferries service.UK to CI - France and inter-island services, both islands suddenly started doing their own thing. Crazy