Route Analysis New frontier: Africa, where growth opportunities could help offset the rising burden of European green taxes and sustainable aviation charges

[Aviador]

New frontier: Africa, where growth opportunities could help offset the rising burden of European green taxes and sustainable aviation charges

As European nations tighten their environmental policies, airlines and tour operators are increasingly confronted with the reality of higher costs. Sustainable aviation charges and green taxes are designed to push the industry towards cleaner operations, but they also risk squeezing margins and limiting growth in traditional European markets. Against this backdrop, Africa is emerging as a strategically attractive alternative, offering untapped demand, expanding tourism infrastructure, and governments keen to welcome investment.

Recent moves by major carriers underline this shift. Ryanair has opened its fourth Moroccan base at Tangier, investing $200 million and launching 25 routes, including 13 new ones connecting both European and domestic destinations. This expansion not only strengthens Ryanair’s footprint in North Africa but also demonstrates how low-cost carriers can leverage markets outside the EU to sidestep the full weight of European green levies. Similarly, Jet2 has announced new flights to Egypt and Morocco, including routes from Bournemouth to Agadir and Leeds Bradford to Marrakech, expanding its North African programme to eight UK bases. Egypt, with its enduring appeal as a winter sun destination, represents another growth market where European taxes have less impact.

Aircraft technology now available makes these strategies even more viable. Ryanair’s Boeing 737 MAX offers improved fuel efficiency and extended range, enabling cost-effective operations into North Africa and potentially deeper into the continent. Meanwhile, the Airbus A321XLR, soon to enter service, promises to open up even longer thin routes, connecting secondary European cities directly to African destinations without the need for widebody aircraft. This could revolutionise leisure travel, allowing tour companies to package new destinations such as Senegal, Ghana, or even East African resorts with direct flights from regional UK airports.

Beyond Morocco and Egypt, the possibilities are vast. West Africa’s tourism sector is growing, with countries like Cape Verde already proving popular with European travellers. East Africa offers safari tourism and coastal resorts, while Southern Africa combines adventure travel with established infrastructure. For airlines, these regions present opportunities to diversify networks, build brand loyalty, and capture demand before competitors establish dominance.

Strategically, focusing on Africa allows carriers to balance environmental obligations with commercial growth. By shifting capacity to markets outside the EU, airlines can reduce exposure to European green taxes while still investing in modern, fuel-efficient fleets that align with global sustainability goals. Tour operators benefit too, with fresh destinations to market and the chance to differentiate their offerings in an increasingly crowded European leisure space.

In short, Africa represents not just an escape from taxation pressures but a genuine growth frontier. With Ryanair and Jet2 already making moves, and new-generation aircraft providing the range and efficiency to make these routes viable, the question for the aviation community is not whether Africa will rise as a key leisure market but how quickly airlines will seize the opportunity.

 

[YorkshireLad]

I must say that was a very interesting analysis. From my point of view, Africa won't get close to the market size of Europe, but will become a fairly important segment of the medium-haul leisure market, and it'll be interesting to see who best takes the opportunity presented.

I feel Ryanair have positioned themselves fairly well to become a strong future market contender around here, which I believe will only improve if they can expand beyond Morocco
Jet2 have definitely got themselves nicely into the package holiday market around here. I can see them easily overtaking TUI, and spearheading the growth of this particular section of the market. I'm unsure as to how the market has fared historically, but I feel like Thomas Cook was a decent-sized player in this market, and if this is the case, I can see Jet2 re-establishing that market base.
TUI... well... not a right lot they can really do with low expansion and consolidation
I believe easyJet has some market share around North Africa already. I can see them improving on this, already knowing how the market operates

Also there's the role of Brexit (not looking to get into the political side of it, just the effects of it on the holiday market). Clearly, travel to the EU has become more challenging due to Brexit, and while I'm under no impressions that it's as difficult to travel to the EU as Africa, I can see the reduction in the difference being somewhat of a factor in the growth of this particular market area. Further into the future, I see us re-joining the EU as a matter of when, not if. It will be interesting to see whether that has any effects on this market, as on the one hand easier travel within the EU may persuade some people to travel elsewhere, however I don't see the market shrinking much in this case, if at all, and if anything it'll be easier for airlines like Ryanair to open more routes using EU registered aircraft

 

[gulftraveller]

Very interesting ideas. British holidaymakers are conservative in comparison with continental Europeans so Africa remains a largely unfulfilled opportunity. I wonder what percentage of passengers travelling to Egypt, Tunisia or Morocco actually know they are flying to Africa?

I see growth in Egypt, particularly on the Mediterranean coast. Morocco is already expanding from UK. But elsewhere? Senegal is dominated by francophone tourists. It leaves Gambia which is a great destination but just too far for one crew to operate there and back in one day, and the hotels, on the whole, are not what UK tourists are looking for.

There is no tourism infrastructure elsewhere in West Africa and security is a major issue in a number of countries. In the East, Mombasa and Zanzibar have no UK flights but hotels are full with tourists from Netherlands, France, Italy, Poland…. And BA has, more or less, pulled out of Africa. It is an expensive destination. A shame given the potential.

A perfect, but highly improbable scenario would be if TUI, retreating from some of the bucket and spade competition with EZY, RYR and EXS, focused on new markets such as Kenya, Zanzibar, safaris, in the way Condor does for Germans. But I think it would still be a small market.

 

[Aviador]

@gulftraveller you raise some excellent points about the conservatism of British holidaymakers and the uneven development of Africa’s tourism infrastructure. It is striking that for many UK travellers, “Africa” as a concept barely registers when booking a week in Sharm el‑Sheikh or Marrakech. The destinations are marketed as Mediterranean or exotic extensions of Europe rather than part of a vast and diverse continent. That lack of awareness perhaps explains why Africa remains under penetrated by British leisure carriers compared with the enthusiasm shown by continental Europeans.

Egypt and Morocco are indeed the exceptions, with strong growth corridors already established. Yet the wider picture is more complex. West Africa suffers from the twin challenges of limited infrastructure and security concerns, while East Africa has the product but not the lift from the UK. The irony is that hotels in Mombasa or Zanzibar are thriving with Dutch, French, Italian and Polish tourists, proving the demand exists, just not yet from Britain. The retreat of British Airways from much of Africa has only reinforced the perception that the continent is “too difficult” or “too expensive” to serve.

This is where strategy and imagination come into play. If TUI or another vertically integrated operator were to reposition themselves, as you suggest, away from saturated short haul competition and towards tailored African experiences such as safaris, coastal resorts, cultural tour, they could carve out a distinctive niche. It would not be mass market in the way Spain or Greece is, but it could be profitable, brand enhancing, and aligned with the growing appetite for experiential travel. Germans already benefit from Condor’s adventurous programming; there is no structural reason why British travellers could not be encouraged to follow suit, given the right marketing and reassurance.

The broader question is whether UK aviation and tourism will continue to treat Africa as peripheral, or whether the combination of European green taxes, new aircraft technology, and shifting consumer tastes will finally push operators to take the plunge. Africa may never rival the Mediterranean in volume, but as a frontier for growth, differentiation, and long term sustainability, it is arguably too important to ignore.