CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats October 2016

The CAA updated its October airports 'league table' today with more airports included.

BRS is still not included along with Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, Inverness and nine small Highlands and Islands airports, plus Coventry.

Under the 'old system' BRS was rarely not in the first batch of CAA monthly airport stats to be released.

I don't know if the airport is at fault or whether it's down to the far from efficient new CAA system. I notice that, apart from May, Verona has been shown as nil passengers all through the summer till September (still waiting for October of course) despite there being two weekly flights throughout the summer.

This sort of thing has happened with BRS before, with Verona involved in a previous year. Guernsey is another that comes to mind with many months shown as nil a few years ago. These mistakes were never corrected in the final versions of the tables and remain incorrect in the CAA archived tables lists.

The airport must know it has two flights each week to Verona - the winter flights to this airport were included each month without exception - so why isn't someone from the airport monitoring the CAA stats? It only takes me a few minutes to go through them.

The next CAA update is expected to be on 23 December this year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats September 2016

These have now been published and show that 784,073 passengers were handled in the month, up 10.1% on September 2015. Atms were up 9.6%. Rolling 12-month total was 7,373,612, up 10.8% on a year ago.

Some CAA October 2016 stats have been published within the last day but BRS is not among them.

November 2016

Still awaiting CAA stats for October, let along November, but the airport has today published its own stats for November. They show that 468,143 passengers used the airport in the month, an increase of 13.84% on November 2015.

Taking the last published CAA stats month for BRS (September), when a 12-month total of 7,373,612 was shown, the airport's own figures have shown a total of 126,000 additional passengers for the months of October and November which means that 7.5 mppa will have been achieved in CAA terms by the end of November.

As BRS, for reasons long discussed in this thread, invariably shows several thousand per month fewer the the CAA it seems that by the end of the year the total will be closer to 7.55 million assuming that December shows the same sort of gain as November. That would be an annual gain in the region of 11.3%.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

2017

At the beginning of 2015 I predicted the final total for that year and and came very close to what turned out to be the final figure of 6.781 mppa.

A year later I under-estimated what 2016 would bring, suggesting that with a fair wind 7 mppa would be passed by the end of the year. By May I had altered my prediction to 7.2 mppa but it seems the final score will be in excess of 7.5 mppa.

I'm now looking at 2017 which, a couple of months or so ago, the airport CEO said would see the 8 mppa barrier passed. Some of us wonder how this will be achieved with the programme for 2017 so far announced.

If November is a guide to the winter months as a whole, the airport might see an additional 150,000 in the months January, February and March. As to the summer months there is an additional based easyJet aircraft in the mix and assuming it's fully utilised - it doesn't seem to be at the moment in July and August - it's reasonable to suggest another 150,000 from it during the summer.

On the debit side WOW may not be around and Wizz and Ryanair might have a slightly reduced presence, at least for part of the summer. TOM long haul will probably see around 25,000 passengers so at the moment we might be looking in total at a bit over 300,000 extra passengers in 2017 as things stand. We don't yet know what November and December will bring next year.

An extra 300,000 would give a year-end total of 7.8 mppa or perhaps a touch more, depending how 2016 finishes.

If easyJet and Ryanair load factors increase over summer 2016 that will also help but they were pretty high for the most part this summer so there might not be much more room to squeeze too many more in, although the easyJet A320 fleet is slowly being increased by six seats to 186.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BRS press today says there will be an increase of 18% in passenger numbers this Christmas.

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/ab...d-media-centre/2016/12/christmas-getaway-2016

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Christmas Getaway 2016
Created: 22nd Dec 2016

Over 260,000 passengers will be travelling through Bristol Airport during the Christmas period (18 December 2016 until 2 January 2017 inclusive) an 18% increase on passenger numbers compared to the same two week period last year.

This passenger number has been boosted by a number of airlines adding additional flights to their schedule over the Christmas period to meet passenger demand, destinations include Copenhagen, Venice –Marco Polo, Bucharest and Gran Canaria. The ski destinations remain a popular choice for passengers during the winter season, as well as winter sun destinations including Malta and Rome continue to be popular.

Bristol Airport will remain open on Christmas Day for a limited number of scheduled and charter flights. A total of seven departing and eight arriving flights will be operating on Christmas Day, with over 150 staff working on site across all departments.

During the busy Christmas holiday period passengers are advised to allow extra journey time to the Airport and to arrive at check-in at least a minimum of 2 hours prior to scheduled departure time. As the proposed industrial action has been cancelled by baggage handlers, our advice is to limit cabin baggage and check-in bags as normal. If travelling with presents passengers are asked to keep them unwrapped and check with the airline if wanting to take Christmas crackers away, as many airlines refuse to carry crackers on board the aircraft.

 

[alphagolf]

Hello All,

Hope you have had a Merry Christmas and wish you all a very Happy New Year for 2017.

I wonder if any of you have saved a copy of the CAA Prov Stats for September 2016, in particular Table 12.1 Intl Air Pax Traffic Route Analysis in excel or pdf version.
For some reason it is now missing from the CAA site, I am sure it was there before.
I am compiling a spreadsheet of BRS performance in 2016, this file is one I don't have at present. Obviously November is yet to be published as is December.
I would be grateful if anyone could send me a copy by email

alphagolf

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I have a copy. I've just sent you a Conversations message.

 

[alphagolf]

Thanks TLY just sent you a reply.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats publication

The CAA has now published stats for December 2016 re some airports. However, they haven't yet posted BRS's November 2016 stats let alone December.

Looking at November, only BRS and LTN of the top 20 UK airports remain to be published along with DSA, INV and most of the small Highlands/Islands airports plus Coventry.

Under the 'previous system' BRS was invariably in the first batch of airports to be published. This year it's been amongst the last, often many weeks after most of the others have been published. BRS publishes its own figures relatively promptly (usually within 3-4 weeks of the end of the month in question) but because they don't include all types of passenger that the CAA includes they are invariably several thousand fewer that the CAA each month and a correspondingly lower annual total.

 

[Red Flyer]

December figures on website now: 501585 pax Up 22.31% Another excellent month

 

[TheLocalYokel]

December figures on website now: 501585 pax Up 22.31% Another excellent month

Excellent numbers.

To put some more meat on these bones, charter traffic in December was up 20.85%, scheduled international up 27.45% and scheduled domestic up 8.11%.

The 12-month total, also the total for the calendar year of 2016, was 7,532,298 an increase of 11.3% on 2015.

When the CAA eventually gets around to publishing its own stats for BRS the total will be nearer 7.55 million given that BRS doesn't include every type of passenger in its numbers (the under 2s for instance) whereas the CAA does.

 

[superking]

with the rise of charter pax. who is doing it does it mean extra rotations with w patterns or extra air frames based, or the based charter air lines doing more with whats based. It sure is good figures with charter. the figures in general are very good.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

with the rise of charter pax. who is doing it does it mean extra rotations with w patterns or extra air frames based, or the based charter air lines doing more with whats based. It sure is good figures with charter. the figures in general are very good.

Although charter was up 20.85% it only accounted for around 8% of the monthly total; about 7,000 more charter passengers than in December 2015. I'm not quite sure how the increase was achieved. There may have been a few additional flights in December 2016.

 

[Jerry]

Although charter was up 20.85% it only accounted for around 8% of the monthly total; about 7,000 more charter passengers than in December 2015. I'm not quite sure how the increase was achieved. There may have been a few additional flights in December 2016.

Santa flights in December?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Santa flights in December?

There always seem to be a lot of Santa flights each year so one or two more could have occurred without being obvious, but that would not have accounted for anywhere near the extra (circa) 7,000 charter passengers in December. Until the CAA stats for December are published it won't really be possible to see where the increases came from.

 

[kraktoa]

Ski flights. Geneva? There were loads of Geneva flights.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Ski flights. Geneva? There were loads of Geneva flights.

It was the same number of GVA ski charter flights (2 weekly) as in December 2015 although they might have started a week earlier in December 2016. All the others were easyJet scheduled flights (22 rotations each week).

There weren't any more weekly ski charter flights (compared with December 2015) to the other destinations either but again some might have started earlier in the month in December 2016.

Addendum (16.1.17)

In both December 2015 and December 2016 easyJet operated a number of ski/Santa flights to Kittila. In December 2015 the CAA showed them as charter flights. They never appeared in the easyJet drop-down menu last month (I can't remember if they were in December 2015) so weren't bookable in the normal way.

easyJet is still operating to Kittila through the current month but they still don't appear in the easyJet drop-down menu for booking.

It may be that there were more of them in December 2016. On its own that wouldn't account for all the extra charter passengers in the month but it's likely that Santa/ski charters were responsible for much of the charter passenger rise in passenger numbers.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

November 2016

At long last the CAA has published its own stats for the above month.

They show that 471,978 passengers passed through the terminal, an increase of 14.5% on November 2015. The rolling total was 7,509, 467, up 11.4% on the same period last year.

BRS has already published its own total for the entire year which is 7,532,298. Given that by the airport's own figures nearly 90,000 more passengers used the airport in December 2016 than in December 2015 the CAA's annual total should be nudging 7.6 million when it's finally published.

 

[superking]

good pax numbers for November. lets hope December and January are as good as these 3 months are always low pax numbers. it bodes well for real good figures for the summer months.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

good pax numbers for November. lets hope December and January are as good as these 3 months are always low pax numbers. it bodes well for real good figures for the summer months.

December will be fine because the airport has already published its own figures (over 501,000) for that month, up around 90,000 on the previous December. The CAA figures will be higher than that for the reasons we've discussed so often in these threads.

January-March ought to see decent rises too with the additional Ryanair and easyJet operations this winter.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I was looking through some historical CAA stats on this thoroughly wet and miserable day (whilst keeping an eye on the FA Cup matches on the telly in the corner of my office) and thought it might be of interest to show the BRS passenger performance since 1961 which is as far back as my records go.

I've listed annual passenger numbers, in millions/part millions, together with the percentage rise or fall over the previous year. In the 55 years that the study covers only eight years saw falls in passenger numbers, albeit some of the gains were low percentage figures. Nevertheless, it shows a remarkable consistency for over half a century.

The down years tended to reflect outside events, mainly recessions.

1961-1969
1961 0.059
1962 0.070 + 18.6%
1963 0.079 + 12.9%
1964 0.095 + 20.2%
1965 0.106 + 11.8%
1966 0.136 + 28.3%
1967 0.134 - 1.5%
1968 0.130 - 2.9%
1969 0.120 - 7.7%

1970-1979
1970 0.152 + 26.7%
1971 0.201 + 32.2%
1972 0.262 + 30.3%
1973 0.289 + 10.3%
1974 0.184 - 36.3%
1975 0.195 + 6%
1976 0.205 + 5.1%
1977 0.211 + 2.9%
1978 0.233 + 10.4%
1979 0.238 + 2.1%

1980-1989
1980 0.239 + 0.4%
1981 0.246 + 2.9%
1982 0.261 + 6.1%
1983 0.331 + 26.8%
1984 0.423 + 27.8%
1985 0.402 - 5%
1986 0.469 + 16.7%
1987 0.645 + 37.5%
1988 0.705 + 9.3%
1989 0.838 + 18.9%

1990-1999
1990 0.774 - 7.6%
1991 0.783 + 1.2%
1992 1.026 + 31%
1993 1.112 + 8.4%
1994 1.276 + 14.7%
1995 1.430 + 12.1%
1996 1.394 - 2.5%
1997 1.586 + 13.8%
1998 1.814 + 14.4%
1999 1.966 + 8.4%

2000-2009
2000 2.124 + 8%
2001 2.673 + 25.8%
2002 3.415 + 27.8%
2003 3.887 + 13.8%
2004 4.603 + 18.4%
2005 5.199 + 12.9%
2006 5.710 + 9.8%
2007 5.884 + 3%
2008 6.229 + 5.9%
2009 5.615 - 9.9%

2010-2016
2010 5.723 + 1.9%
2011 5.768 + 0.8%
2012 5.916 + 2.6%
2013 6.125 + 3.5%
2014 6.333 + 3.4%
2015 6.781 + 7.1%
2016 7,604 + 12.1%