CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Aviador]

Another good month for Bristol with 686,271 passengers using the airport during August 1.3% up on last year. Rolling year passengers stand at 5,747,253 1.6% up

 

[TheLocalYokel]

August 2010

Not as spectacular as we were led to believe would be the case through 2010 when the CEO spoke to the consultative committee much earlier in the year but solid, given the still parlous state of the aviation industry and of the majority of UK airports.

It has to be remembered that BRS lost a lot of easyJet rotations through August because of the airline's shortage of staff and because easyJet, far more than other airlines, simply axed flights so the aircraft and crews were not found in the wrong place following ongoing atc industrial action in France, Spain and Greece

The last third of the month's Viking/Kiss flights also disappeared following Kiss's going out of business.

Had easyJet flown all its rotations and Kiss continued to operate I estimate at least another 4,000 passengers would have been handled, which would have given a monthly rise close to 2.5%.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

September 2010 CAA stats

BRS handled 608,478 passengers in the month, up 2% on September 2009. Atms were down 0.7%.

The rolling 12-month total was 5,759,281, up 2.1% on a year ago.

Would have been slightly better but for all the easyJet and Ryanair cancellations due to the various overseas ATC industrial action in the month.

 

[Aviador]

Crikey, that's double what my local airport is handling and at least it's still an upward trend.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Eight of of nine months this year have seen increases with April the exception but that was because BRS, like all UK airports, was closed for six days because of the volcanic ash.

Next April ought to see impressive rises at all UK airports so long as the volcano, overseas ATC staff industrial action or swine flu don't figure.

 

[Aviador]

Heaven knows what could happen. We've had everything thrown at us this year.

 

[alphagolf]

CAA October 2010 Stats

Total Pax: 549,450 UP 3.6% on October 2009

ATM's: 4,994 UP 0.8% on October 2009

Rolling 12mths Pax: 5,778,263 UP 2.5%

Rolling 12mths ATM's: 54,119 DOWN 0.4%

BRS - EWR 8,944 in October UP 7%, Total Pax Jan to Oct 75,445 compared with 73,253 in the same period 2009. If the flights continued to the end of the year, could of well seen 90,000 for the year.

BFS - EWR 8,832 in October UP 2%, but BRS beat Belfast again yet the route was dropped.

Really hope someone will fill the gap sooner than later.

 

[Aviador]

The slight decrease in ATMs vs the increase in passenger numbers does of course mean higher load factors which is also a good sign. TheLocalYokel will be happy!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

November 2010

The airport has published its monthly stats for November - they usually differ slightly from the CAA stats which are yet to be published for BRS because BRS doesn't include transit travellers in its figures.

Overall, 317,956 passengers travelled in November, down nearly 6% on November 2009.
Atms actually up by nearly 2% which on the face of it is not a good sign with a percentage passenger numbers fall.

However, two thirds of BRS's passengers are scheduled international and in this sector passenger numbers were down by 6.74% but atms were down by 8.43%.

BRS does not show a rolling 12-month figure but does show passenger numbers to date in the calendar year of 2010. So far this year 5,358,065 passengers have travelled via BRS which is 2.66% more than at the same time last year. Overall atms are down 1.32% on the same period last year.

Although bad weather did not affect BRS directly in the last part of November, some flights to other airports were cancelled because of bad weather there which may have marginally affected the figures negatively.

However, Ryanair is certainly operating significantly fewer rotations than last winter and I had expected BRS to be down this month and I believe this may be the case each month throughout the winter unless loads are very high across the board.

November is the first month of the year where passenger numbers have dropped - except that is for April but that month was unrepresentative as the airport was closed for six days because of the volcanic ash, as were all other UK airports.

 

[Aviador]

I'm afraid to say but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another general UK downturn. People are going to be hit hard over the next few years and flights and holidays are always the first thing to stop when times are hard. I don't think the downturn will be as bad as it was previously, stagnation might be a better way of putting it. I hope I am wrong of course.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

December 2010

CAA provisional stats still awaited but airport's own stats for the month now published - they are are usually slightly lower than CAA stats each month because, unlike the CAA, the airport does not not include transit passengers.

Nevertheless, weather difficulties apart, they don't make good reading after a successful year until November.

In December a total of 309,896 passengers was handled which is down 10.63% on the airport's figures for December 2009. Atms were down by 4.53% which is not a good sign relative to the passenger fall.

However, the biggest sector at BRS (international scheduled) saw a drop of 10.37% in passengers to 203,000 against a 10.48% drop in atms so that was neutral. Scheduled domestic saw a drop of 17.53% to 70,000 against just 0.97% fewer atms. Charter traffic actually saw 4.2% growth to 36,000 but this was achieved on the back of a 20.54% increase in atms.

The figures for 2010 as a whole is 5,667,961, up 1.84% on 2009 with atms across the board down 1.53%.

Scheduled international passenger numbers were up by 3.71% to 3.658 million against a drop in atms of 0.85%; scheduled domestic was 1.070 million, down 2,67% with atms up 1.23%; charter was 973,000, up just 0.04% with atms up 5.14%.

The year was nowhere as good in terms of passenger numbers as the airport CEO forecast early in 2010 when he suggested numbers would approach the best ever year of 2008 when over 6.2 million travellers were handled. Weather difficulties, volcano disruption and airlines and tour operators going out of business didn't help of course but, despite all that, I cannot see that 6 mppa would have been approached let alone exceeded.

Despite that the year was a success in terms of the overall increase in passenger numbers compared to the UK airport scene generally, with only a handul of airports seeing percentage growth over 2009.

2011

The early signs are not good.

In January there are approximately 8% fewer seats available each week than in January 2010 which itself was down on the same month in 2009.

This is due mainly to Ryanair's substantial reduction in flights compared to last winter.

The airport will do well to maintain 2011 passenger numbers on a par with 2010 by the year's end. At this stage it looks as though the figures will fall but by how many will depend heavily on the final easyJet and Ryanair summer 2011 schedules.

The CEO's comments at the last consultative committee meeting that he was looking to 2012 for real growth leads me to suspect he is not optimistic about 2011 in terms of expanding the route network significantly or seeing a marked increase in passengers passing through.

 

[Aviador]

Do you remember our discussion on here about the way aviation can be used as an economic indicator? It would seem airports around the country are seeing a downturn again. I hope this doesn't mean we're heading for a double dip recession. It's definitely looking increasingly likely and it doesn't bode well when BRS that remained largely unaffected by the previous downturn now seems to be heading for a tumble.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Further update on 2010 and a look ahead

The provisional CAA stats for December 2010 have now been published. As I said in my last post, they are slightly higher than those given by the airport because of transit passengers and the figure is 313,243, down 10.1% on December 2009. Atms were down 5.9%.

The figures for the calendar year of 2010 are again a bit higher than the airport's own figures (for the same reason) and show that 5,723,432 passengers were handled, up 1.9% on 2009. For the year as a whole atms were unchanged from 2009.

The fact that the annual figures are in positive territory shows the airport again performed better than many UK airports but signs of a ceiling having been reached are clearly visible. The 2010 figures are identical to 2006 when 5,710,230 passengers were handled: 2007 saw 5,883,399; 2008 saw 6,228,656 and 2009 saw 5,615,336.

Hanging around near a ceiling is undoubtedly better than the ravine into which some airports have fallen in that time, and ceilings can be raised, but circumstances may have changed for all regional airports going forward, at least in the next few years.

Nearly all airports have revised downwards the optimistic time scale of future growth they so confidently predicted in confirmation of the last government's White Paper on the future of UK air transport published in 2004. Bristol is no different.

The reasons probably go beyond the recession. Domestic air travel is reducing dramatically in the face of land-based competition and there are a number of disparate factors as to why this should be. The large low cost airlines are altering their strategies and are embracing the sun and sand markets far more than they once did (as the traditional charter market to such destinations contracts) whilst at the same time pulling back on city to city routes. In the past the likes of easyJet and Ryanair would also have kept a reasonably full service going through the winter months despite the fact that the period would be loss-making. They now cull or severely restrict the number of rotations on many winter routes and park up aircraft - this doesn't seem to have done easyJet much good this winter as their predicted winter losses are much higher than last winter, but there are some extenuating circumstances.

The policy is well illustrated at Bristol.

The monthly passenger figures for November and December 2010 are the lowest for those months since 2004. Indeed, the last three years have seen continuous percentage decreases in those two months since 2007 when over 400,000 passengers were carried in both - in 2010 it was 320,000 and 313,000 respectively.

Conversely BRS did very well in summer 2010. September and October saw the highest totals ever handled in those months (even better than the record-breaking calendar year of 2008) and June, July and August saw the second best ever figures for those months only narrowly lower than 2008.

There is therefore some optimism but I believe that 2011 will be a quiet year for the airport in terms of any growth (I don't anticipate much, if any - more likely the other way) with the hope (not too sure about expectation at this stage) that 2012 will be better - though for the reasons outlined earlier in this post I believe the airport's revised growth timetable is more realistic than its master plan issued several years ago.

 

[Aviador]

Such detail The Local Yokel !!! Now, where do I start? :smile:

Nearly all airports have revised downwards the optimistic time scale of future growth they so confidently predicted in confirmation of the last government's White Paper on the future of UK air transport published in 2004. Bristol is no different.

I understand airports are required to release a revised masterplan every few years. I believe Edinburgh only last week said that it had revised (downwards) it's plans to extend the airport there. Do you know if or when BRS is going to release it's revised masterplan?

The fact that the annual figures are in positive territory shows the airport again performed better than many UK airports but signs of a ceiling having been reached are clearly visible. The 2010 figures are identical to 2006 when 5,710,230 passengers were handled: 2007 saw 5,883,399; 2008 saw 6,228,656 and 2009 saw 5,615,336.

That represents a four year setback year on year? This is definitely worrying given that Bristol airport is one of the best performing UK airports.

The reasons probably go beyond the recession. Domestic air travel is reducing dramatically in the face of land-based competition and there are a number of disparate factors as to why this should be. The large low cost airlines are altering their strategies and are embracing the sun and sand markets far more than they once did (as the traditional charter market to such destinations contracts) whilst at the same time pulling back on city to city routes. In the past the likes of easyJet and Ryanair would also have kept a reasonably full service going through the winter months despite the fact that the period would be loss-making. They now cull or severely restrict the number of rotations on many winter routes and park up aircraft - this doesn't seem to have done easyJet much good this winter as their predicted winter losses are much higher than last winter, but there are some extenuating circumstances.

Indeed. The domestic air travel reduction was mentioned in a recent news article by the CAA. I guess we can only hope that the combination of a lack of investment in the rail network along with the huge predicted rises in rail fares this year will pull people back to air travel, that assuming airlines can buffer some of the rising costs of fuel.

The monthly passenger figures for November and December 2010 are the lowest for those months since 2004

Crikey that's not good. That represents a six year setback so far as November and December go? I think airlines will be concentrating on maintaining passenger loads and yields on the routes they already operate to at many of the UK airports this year. Hopefully airlines wont need to cut routes in the process.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I don't know when the master plan was last updated.

The 2005 master plan (in response to the 2004 White Paper) was re-jigged several times in the following three years in response to feedback from the public and (particularly) noisy focus groups.

The 2005 master plan envisaged 8-9 mppa by 2015 but in the past year the airport has public accepted that this figure is now unlikely to be reached until around 2019-2020.

The 2005 master plan also saw the major expansion well on the way to completion by now but failed to take into account the years of delay brought about by protests and the need to continually go back and fine-tune.

The expansion will now go ahead incrementally as the need is seen to arise. If air travel stagnates it may take some time.

As I mentioned earlier, BRS and I suspect other regional airports are increasingly becoming summer airports with the winters assuming less and less importance. This was always the case to a degree but the gap between seasons seems to be widening at a fast pace.

I pointed out that September and October 2010 were Bristol's best ever and June, July and August were nearly the best ever.

The ramifications that will ensue are many with questions being asked about the need to downsize in all sorts of areas during winter: the aircraft fleets; ground handling operations; airport retail outlets; airport bus services are ones that instantly spring to mind.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Bristol Airport confirmed as only one of two top ten UK airports to show growth in the calendar year of 2010. The other is Liverpool.

The volcanic ash, severe weather and overseas industrial disputes are estimated to have cost the airport 150,000 passengers in the year.

[textarea]BRISTOL AIRPORT BUCKS TREND AS PASSENGER NUMBERS GROW

Passenger numbers at Bristol Airport rose in 2010, with volumes up 1.8 per cent compared to 2009. Bristol was one of only two of the UK’s top 10 airports to grow in 2010.

The number of people travelling through the South West’s busiest terminal increased despite the significant disruption to European air travel caused by snow, volcanic ash and air traffic control strikes. A total of 5.7 million passengers used Bristol Airport over the course of the year, a figure which would have been approximately 150,000 higher had it not been for these exceptional events.

Scheduled international routes were the strongest performers, showing a 3.7 per cent increase over the previous twelve months. Civil Aviation Authority figures show passengers numbers were down across all UK airports by an average of 3.5 per cent.

The rise in passengers at Bristol Airport was achieved with fewer flights, with the total number of aircraft movements down by 1.5 per cent, a decrease of more than 1,000.

Shaun Browne, Aviation Director at Bristol Airport, said:
“These results demonstrate the continued demand for international air travel to and from the South West. 2010 was a challenging year for aviation, but the region’s leading airport has retained a strong route network which serves hundreds of destinations across the world direct or via major hubs such as Amsterdam, Brussels and Paris Charles de Gaulle.”

This connectivity is set to further improve in March when KLM commences a fourth daily service to Amsterdam, and Aer Lingus begins flying three times a day to Dublin. Both services offer convenient onward connections across the Atlantic.[/textarea]

http://www.cisionwire.com/bristol-airpo ... mbers-grow

 

[Aviador]

As I mentioned earlier, BRS and I suspect other regional airports are increasingly becoming summer airports with the winters assuming less and less importance. This was always the case to a degree but the gap between seasons seems to be widening at a fast pace.

The ramifications that will ensue are many with questions being asked about the need to downsize in all sorts of areas during winter: the aircraft fleets; ground handling operations; airport retail outlets; airport bus services are ones that instantly spring to mind.

In many ways this already happens at some airports. My local airport is probably one of them.

You can safely say that the summer months at LBA are crazy, where as the winter months are quite the opposite with staff milling around looking for something to do. Company's have already adapted to this by having a 'base level' of staffing manned by full time staff. Many of the other jobs are filled by either part time staff or seasonal staff.

At LBA Jet2 is the major player at the airport and much of their work is to the bucket and spade destinations, these are predominantly summer routes. Destinations to places like Amsterdam, Dusseldorf, Belfast and Paris operate year round and are daily or double daily and so provide sufficient work to keep the airline and airport ticking over until the Easter break when the summer flights kick in.

Incidentally, Ryanair seem to be more keen to operate year-round and the recent introduction of new flights by the airline there have shown a significant increase in the winter offering.

I think long term airports and airlines have to be able to adapt and change with the times so basically, when the market changes, so does the airport.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

January 2011

CAA provisional stats show BRS handled 330,037 passengers in the month, up 1.5% on January 2010. Atms were up 0.3%.

Rolling 12-month total is 5,728,319, up 2% on a year ago.

As with all UK airports it has to be remembered that January 2010 was severely affected by bad weather so the comparision will not be quite like for like, given January 2011 was much less affected.

 

[Aviador]

Did you mention before that you expect little growth during the coming year?

At least it's looking positive for the time being.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Did you mention before that you expect little growth during the coming year?

I'm not expecting much, and won't be surprised to see some sort of fall - hopefully not too big. My thoughts for 2011 were thus when I posted on 17 January.

The early signs are not good.

In January there are approximately 8% fewer seats available each week than in January 2010 which itself was down on the same month in 2009.

This is due mainly to Ryanair's substantial reduction in flights compared to last winter.

The airport will do well to maintain 2011 passenger numbers on a par with 2010 by the year's end. At this stage it looks as though the figures will fall but by how many will depend heavily on the final easyJet and Ryanair summer 2011 schedules.

I think that the slight gain in January was because of the weather-related cancellations in January 2010.

The weather, volcano and overseas ATC industrial disputes during 2010 cost the airport about 150,000 passengers in the year as a whole according to the CEO - most other UK airports would have see similar losses, pro rata.

This means that BRS's 2010 figure would have been near 5.9 mppa so in that sense the 2011 'target' is reduced.

We know that 85-90,000 passengers have been lost in one fell swoop - the axed EWR route, and it is doubtful that the majority of the potential EWR pax will use the hubs such as AMS, CDG and DUB to reach the USA - if 25-30% do the airport will probably be doing well. It might be fewer in reality.