CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats January 2016

Yes, an excellent start with 409,519 passengers using the airport up, as you say, 13.26% on January 2015. The CAA stats, when they are eventually published, will likely add another thousand or two to BRS's own figures because of the different way they are compiled (under 2s not counted by BRS for example) as I know that you are aware but others reading this might not be.

It looks as though January will see around 50,000 more than January 2015. It goes without saying that this is a record January for the airport but we've been saying that each month for the past two years and more.

BRS needs just under 220,000 more passengers in 2016 than in 2015 to reach seven million by the end of the year. The 50,000 additional ones for January will have already made inroads into that total with the 12-month rolling total likely to be around 6,830,000.

CAA stats now out that show 408,454 passengers in January an increase of 13.3% on January 2015. Atms were up 12.1%. Rolling 12-month total was 6,829,111, up 7.5% on a year ago.

There is something wrong here as the CAA stats should be higher than BRS's own stats which were published a few days ago and which I've reproduced in the above quote.

We had some anomalies a year or so ago with Enfidha and Verona not shown by the CAA for a few months. I can't find where the discrepancy might be this time.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats February 2016

437,478 passengers were handled during the month, up 14.8% on February 2015. Atms were up 14.3%.

Rolling 12-month total was 6,885,578, up 8.2% on a year ago.

Excellent figures again with 7 mppa getting ever nearer. One point to be made, as with all airports in February, is that the leap year meant that 3-3.5% of the passenger number increase was the result of the additional day.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Following on from my previous post which set out the CAA stats for February, the 7 mppa stage seems certain to be reached and passed this year, although the summer is not likely to see the scale of monthly gains of last year as the base figure will be that much higher, although there will be an additional easyJet aircraft (making 13 at the BRS base) for the main summer period and the Wizz flights will operate right through the season which was not the case in 2015 as the airline only began operations in July and then only to Katowice.

However, what perhaps is more noteworthy is the fact that the winter performance is now assuming a greater role. For a number of years winter has been disproportionately weaker than summer in terms of flights and passenger numbers.

This winter though the period November through to February has seen double digit percentage increases each month.

November 2015 saw over 38,000 more passengers (than November 2014) and December saw 41,000 more than the previous December. This year there were 47,000 more in in January than in January 2015 and February saw an increase of over 56,000 over the previous February.

Overall this has given a percentage rise of 12.2% for these four winter months and in real terms over 182,000 more passengers.

I've not included March as this can be skewed depending on when Easter falls.

Note: much of this post is a copy of a post my alter ego submitted elsewhere so it's not a case of plagiarism.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA annual stats for 2015

These have now been published and the ten top routes at BRS in the year were (same top ten as in 2014):

Amsterdam 384,000 + 10%
Dublin 378,000 + 14%
Edinburgh 352,000 + 9%
Malaga 300,00 + 7%
Palma 289,000 + 6%
Faro 273,000 + 1%
Alicante 271,000 no change
Glasgow 267,000 + 9%
Belfast Int 246,000 + 7%
Geneva 206,000 + 9%

I'll update the Overview thread during the next couple of weeks or so.

 

[Marko1]

Match stats reported on airport website. Over 507000 . Excellent news

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Match stats reported on airport website. Over 507000 . Excellent news

Indeed, Marko.

These are the airport's figures of course - still awaiting CAA stats - but 507,483, a gain of 12.3%, is excellent, even taking into account that Easter featured in March this year. The first three months of 2016 are already up 13.39% on the same period last year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats March 2016

Published late this evening - must be working a late shift!

511,153 passengers, up 14.2% on March 2015. Atms up 14.6%. Rolling 12-month total, 6,949,057, up 8.8% on a year ago.

Another record month (for March) but we've been saying this every month for the past couple of years and more.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Looking to 2016 as a whole

We know that BRS enjoyed another excellent month in March with CAA stats showing that 511,153 passengers used the airport, an increase of 14.2%. This brought the 12-month rolling total to 6,949,057. This means that in the first three months of this year nearly 168,000 more passengers passed through the airport than in the same period in 2015 which itself saw the passenger total for the calendar year as a whole grow by over 7% with nearly 450,000 more passengers than in 2014.

If the first three months of this year are replicated throughout the year the airport would find itself with around 7.45 million passengers at the end of 2016. However, it’s unlikely that growth will be sustained at this level throughout the year although a total of 7 million passengers should be exceeded comfortably.

(My alter ego submitted a similar post elsewhere should anyone think this is plagiarism).

 

[TheLocalYokel]

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Arriva...tory-29138733-detail/story.html#ixzz46s9JW64u

Last year the airport welcomed a record 6.7 million passengers through its doors. And if the predictions are right then that number will reach eight million in 2017.

This paragraph was embedded in the local press report about the arrival of the TOM B 787 last week.

I hadn't read any predictions that BRS will reach 8 million passengers in 2017. I would be amazed if this did happen.

My immediate previous post outlined how many extra passengers (circa 450,000) were handled in 2015 with the first three months of 2016 already up by nearly 168,000 taking the current rolling 12-monthly figure to just under 6.95 million. However, to reach 8 million in the next 21 months would require some fairly major announcements.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I was looking through the BRS master plan earlier (published in 2006) in which the ten busiest routes in 2005 were listed, viz:

Edinburgh 327,000
Glasgow 296,000
Belfast 292,000*
Dublin 280,000
Amsterdam 263,000
Newcastle 251,000
Malaga 227,000
Palma 204,000
Alicante 199,000
Faro 141,000
Total passenger number in 2005 was 5.199 million

The ten busiest routes in 2015 were:

Amsterdam 384,000
Dublin 378,000
Edinburgh 352,000
Malaga 300,000
Palma 289,000
Faro 273,000
Alicante 271,000
Glasgow 267,000
Belfast 246,000*
Geneva 206,000
Total passenger number in 2015 was 6.781 million

So nine of the destinations remained the same, although not all in the same order, with Newcastle dropping out and Geneva coming in.

* In 2005 there were routes to Belfast City and Belfast International; in 2015 there was only a Belfast International route.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

easyJet and Ryanair in May 2016

I've had a look at next week's Mayfly and compared it with the same week in 2015.

Given that easyJet and Ryanair are BRS's largest contributors I compared their output this May with May last year.

I found that in 2015 easyJet had 263 weekly rotations with 273 weekly rotations this year. Ryanair had 99 weekly rotations in 2015 with 110 weekly rotations this year.

I make that over 28,000 additional seats during the month. With the extra Wizz flights plus some more modest increases elsewhere (bmir for example) and the new WOW offering, May ought to see at least 30,000 more passengers than last May.

We are unlikely to see the additional 40-60,000 passengers per month that has occurred through the winter just ended but this summer should still see substantial growth.

Incidentally, next week's Mayfly shows that the 12 based easyJet aircraft (13th to arrive later in the summer) are not used anywhere near all of the time

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BRS is 66th busiest European airport

Acknowledgement and thanks to User001 who began a discussion in the MAN forum about that airport's place in the European 'league table' of busiest airports (in 2015 MAN was in 23rd place with 23,136,000 pax).

In 2015 BRS handled 6,787,000 passengers which put it the 66th busiest in Europe. Immediately ahead were Bologna with 6,890,000 (65) and Charleroi with 6,956,000 (64). Immediately behind were Ibiza with 6,477,000 (67) and Faro with 6,400,000 (68).

At number 1 was Heathrow with 74,986,000 and number 100 was Seville with 4,309,000.

There were 13 UK airports in the top 100.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_busiest_airports_in_Europe

 

[User001]

I think that with what, 200 plus airports in Europe, 66th is quite respectable.

What are your forecasts for the 2016 position Yokel?

 

[Sierra3]

Think 99.9% of all BRS pax are O&D unless anyone knows better? (ie 6.787m pairs of shoes arrived and departed, presumably about 50%/50%)

As I understand it the manner in which these numbers are totaled is, every connecting pax are counted as an arrival & a departure. So a connecting pax is one 'pair of shoes' counted twice. Point is BRS doesn't have any worth talking about.

Be very interesting to calculate which airports in No 1 to 65 has significant connecting pax. Trouble where to find the information?

Another way of putting it is, if you won the shoe shine contract at BRS and you were certain of a 100% take up (yes I know) you'd have to plan for shining 6.787m pairs. (Cracks about 1 legged pax not tolerated).Simply put, if an airport with say 8m pax, but say 50% connections only gives you a lesser 6m pairs !

BRS might be higher than 66 on this basis - shine on!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think that with what, 200 plus airports in Europe, 66th is quite respectable.

What are your forecasts for the 2016 position Yokel?

The first three months of 2016 have taken the rolling 12-month total to 6,949,000. Haven't got April's stats yet which will give a better idea about the rest of the summer but I would think that, barring some currently unforeseen circumstance, circa 7.2 million is entirely possible for the calendar year of 2016.

I have no idea how the other airports 'around' BRS are likely to fare in 2016 though.

Addendum re Sierra3's point.

I don't know where to source the information that you mention. The CAA gives a breakdown between transit pax and terminal pax for all UK airports - the below link is for the calendar year of 2015- but that doesn't really address your point about O&D traffic.

The monthly provisional 'league table' published by the CAA only counts terminal pax, although in most cases transit pax wouldn't add much to the total.

http://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/...2_Summary_Of_Activity_at_UK_Airports_2015.pdf

 

[Sierra3]

Yokel - probably right in the UK (excepting LHR & possibly LGW & MAN) but Europe wide, who knows

Always thought this counting system was suspect, from reading an Economist report a few years back it had ATL with (from memory) the worldwide largest pax total but approx 65% connections whilst LHR had approx. 30%; making the 2
airports far closer in 'footfall' than the bare figures suggest.

Maybe BRS should think about connecting traffic, it doesn't clog up the roads / busses etc

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I can't see BRS becoming any sort of hub.

As someone who's been monitoring CAA stats for many years (yes I know!) they are never one hundred per cent accurate but of course they rely on information fed into them by airports.

I can recount a number of incidents where BRS passenger numbers have not appeared at all on some routes at times. The Guernsey route for example has carried between 23,000 and 27,000 passengers annually for the past decade, yet in 2012 it was (according to CAA) under 7,000, although flights operated each month as normal. The reason is that for most months of that year BRS-GCI was shown as nil (despite flights operating) and the mistake has never been rectified. I can give other examples relating to BRS and I can't think this airport is an isolated case.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

April 2016

Still awaiting CAA stats for April but the airport has released its own stats that show 595,785 passengers passed through the terminal in the month, up 10.56% on April 2015. This would take the rolling 12-month total past 7 mppa for the first time ever.

The airport doesn't show a rolling 12-month total, only the calendar year to date which shows a rise of 12.51% on the same four months last year.

if this average was maintained throughout this year the total for 2016 would be over 7.6 mppa. However, I suspect that the average will come down a bit by the end of the year but will still not be surprised to see a 2016 final total nearer 7.5 mppa than 7 mppa.

 

[conns757]

Local

You are beginning to work out the pax total for 2016 at last.

Winter growth for 2016/17 is also looking very positive.

Your next task is to work out pax for 2017 !!!!????

 

[vickersviscount]

Local

Further to the above,on the Bristol Airport Twitter site there are photos and text celebrating the airport having passed the 7 million passenger mark today.The photos showing free icecreams being handed out to some lucky folk.
Whilst I'm here,could I just say thankyou to Local and all the others who number crunch and put the effort in to keep people like me informed and entertained.