CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

Winter 2015/2016

Just had a look at next week's Mayfly. Saturday is showing just 40 departures.

It will pick up when the ski season starts by a dozen or so but, despite the extra flights from various airlines this winter, the winter months are still quiet compared with summer (January this year 361,000, August 776,000).

 

[Marko1]

Airport website reporting a 8.9% increase for October. Strong increases on both scheduled domestic and international services. Total for month of 637,963 !!

 

[Aviador]

That's a superb figure for October. How is the winter programme of flights shaping up, is it expected to be busier or quieter than last winter?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

That's a superb figure for October. How is the winter programme of flights shaping up, is it expected to be busier or quieter than last winter?

Winter should be busier with two new Wizz routes (three from January) plus some extra easyJet and bmi regional routes/frequency increases and TOM to Cape Verde which is a new route. Against that Sharm will be down.

October's figures were boosted a bit by the rugby world cup matches at the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, but nothing to the extent that CWL benefited. Its percentage increase for October should be spectacular, calculated as it will be from a low base.

Still waiting for the CAA October stats (the first batch was due out today) which should be a few thousand more than BRS's own figures for the reasons stated in this thread in the past.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats October 2015

The CAA figures tell us that 640,190 passengers were handled in the month, up 8.6% on October 2014. Atms were up 6.1%.

The rolling 12-month total was 6,703,084 an increase of 6.4% on a year ago. The 6.7 million barrier has therefore been breached.

 

[Marko1]

Looking at the some of detail in the caa provisional statistics , there are some significant increases particularly where ryanair added extra frequencies in October such as lanzarote and Malta. Given that October is probably off peak it makes me wonder what could be achieved if extra frequencies were added during peak season eg July and august.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Given that October is probably off peak it makes me wonder what could be achieved if extra frequencies were added during peak season eg July and august.

It will be interesting to see if easyJet adds frequencies to existing routes or goes for new routes if the additional aircraft next summer is to be fully utilised.

 

[Marko1]

Airport website reporting a 10.39% increase in passengers for November. Strong growth in both scheduled international and domestic passenger numbers however, charter passengers down 9.28% probably due to sharm and enfidha cancellations

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats November 2015

As usual slightly different from BRS's own stats.

CAA showing 412,084 passengers handled in the month, up 10.2% on November 2014. Atms up 11.4%.

Rolling 12-month total 6,741,123, up 6.8% on a year ago.

Excellent figures - so far as I can see this is a record total for November. The previous best was 402,000 in 2007.

 

[Brum X]

Fantastic figures for BRS.

Nice one :rockon:

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Looking at 2016

2015 is turning out to be BRS’s best year since 2006 for passenger figures, both in percentage and actual passenger number increases.

Currently (the 12-month period to November) the airport’s throughput is 6,741,000, up 6.8% on a year ago.

To put things into recent historical context I’ve set out below the annual figures in millions since 2000, showing total passenger numbers, percentage increase and actual passenger number increase over the previous year (rounded up or down to the nearest thousand).

2000 2.124 + 8% + 158,000

2001 2.673 + 25.8% + 549,000

2002 3.415 + 27.7% + 742,000

2003 3.887 +13.8% + 472,000

2004 4.603 + 18.4% + 716,000

2005 5.199 + 13% + 596,000

2006 5.710 + 9.8% + 511,000

2007 5.883 + 3% + 173,000

2008 6.229 + 5.9% + 416,000

2009 5.615 (-9.8%) (- 614,000)

2010 5.723 + 1.9% +108,000

2011 5.769 + 0.8% + 46,000

2012 5.916 + 2.5% + 147,000

2013 6.130 + 3.6% + 214,000

2014 6.333 + 3.3% + 203,000

2015* 6.741 + 6.8% + 429,000

*12 months to end of November 2015

November 2015 saw nearly 38,000 more passengers than November 2014. Working on an assumption that December this year will see at least 30,000 more passengers than December last year the final annual total would be 6.771 million. That would be a percentage rise of about 6.9% and would bring an additional 438,000 passengers for the year compared with 2014.

To reach 7 million in 2016 would therefore require about 230,000 more passengers than in 2015, or an increase of 3.4%.

With easyJet’s additional aircraft for the peak summer period, Wizz’s full programme in operation for almost the full year and the appearance of WOW it’s entirely possible that 7 million could be attained in 2016. If, as has been hinted at, there is more news to be announced then that would make this goal even more likely.

The above figures show how phenomenal the expansion was at BRS in the first half dozen years or so of this century, mainly because of the steady expansion of easyJet at the airport.

It will be seen that so far this century only 2009 has seen a fall in passengers numbers over the previous year and this was primarily because the recession was at its fiercest.

BRS has an excellent record of consistent growth going back half a century and even in the 60s and 70s when the airport was a severe loss maker for the city council it actually saw more annual passenger rises in that period than many people might think.

These are the annual passenger stats in millions/part millions per annum from1961 until 1999.

1960s (from 61) 0.059 0.070 0.079 0.095 0.106 0.136 0.134 0.130 0.120

1970s 0.152 0.201 0.262 0.289 0.184 0.195 0.205 0.211 0.233 0.238

1980s 0.239 0.246 0.261 0.331 0.423 0.402 0.469 0.645 0.705 0.838

1990s 0.774 0.783 1.026 1.112 1.276 1.431 1.394 1.586 1.814 1.966

So in the 55 years since 1961 BRS has seen passenger drops in only seven years - 1967, 1968, 1969, 1974, 1985, 1996 and 2009.

Most were at a time of recession or the result of specific incidents such as Court Line ceasing to trade in August 1974.

All figures above obtained from CAA stats and gratefully acknowledged.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BRS reports today that 6.76 million passengers used the airport in 2015 which is nearly half a million more than in 2014. Owing to the way in which BRS calculates its passenger figures it can be expected that the CAA figures for 2015 will be slightly higher.

Over 7 million passengers are expected in 2016.

This is an extremely praiseworth achievement and is completely in line with the prediction from the airport's director responsible inter alia for route and carrier growth made towards the end of 2014 when he described 2015 as a 'break out' year.

By that I took it to mean that the years from 2010 (following the airport's first drop in passenger numbers the previous year since 1996), although showing positive growth each year, had remained in a band 5.7-6.3 mppa first entered in 2006.

[textarea]Bristol Airport reports record year

Passenger numbers set to exceed 7 million in 2016

Passenger growth

6.76 million passengers used Bristol Airport last year, surpassing the total for the previous 12 months by nearly 500,000*. The record annual number represents a 7.7 per cent increase year on year, and a sixth consecutive year of growth for England’s third largest regional airport.

Both charter and scheduled airline sectors contributed to the rise, with increased capacity on existing routes and the introduction of a raft of new destinations. The ‘big two’ tour operators (TUI and Thomas Cook) sold more seats and holidays, and traffic over hub airports such as Amsterdam, Dublin and Frankfurt was strong, with many making onward connections to long-haul flights.

Established airlines easyJet, bmi regional and Ryanair launched new routes to destinations including Basle, Bilbao, Munich, Düsseldorf and Vienna, while 2015 also saw a new entrant to the South West market in the shape of Wizz Air, which commenced services to Katowice in Poland and Kosice in Slovakia, with the Bulgarian capital, Sofia, to follow later this month.

Continued growth is forecast in 2016, with passenger numbers expected to exceed the seven million mark for the first time in the Airport’s history. Alongside growth from existing carriers, Bristol will become only the second UK departure point for Icelandic low-cost airline, WOW air, when it commences flights to North America via Reykjavik in May. Another exciting new addition for travellers looking further afield is Cape Verde. Thomson Airways commenced flights last November, and the destination is expected to prove popular in 2016.

Development of passenger facilities to cater for this increased demand continues, with work underway on a £24 million west terminal extension which will transform the security search process for passengers when completed later this year, as well as creating an enlarged baggage reclaim area, customs facilities and meet and greet area. Work has also commenced on the construction of a 201-room Hampton by Hilton hotel set to be completed this winter.

This follows the opening of an £8.6 million extension to the departure lounge in July 2015, featuring new shops, food and drink outlets, a distinctive outdoor terrace, second executive lounge and hundreds of additional seats.

Beyond the Airport boundary, the completion of the South Bristol Link (SBL) will enhance access to the Airport from the north, east and west. The SBL forms part of the MetroBus network of rapid transit routes in the West of England, to which Bristol Airport is contributing more than £4.7 million towards the cost of construction as part of planning permission for development to handle up to 10 million passengers per annum.

Robert Sinclair, Chief Executive Officer at Bristol Airport, said:
“Increased demand for air travel is a positive sign that the South West economy continues to thrive. Given the growth in our route network and continued improvement in facilities and services, passengers are increasingly turning to Bristol as the premier gateway airport serving the South West and Wales.”[/textarea]
BRS press release at http://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-u ... ecord-year

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Bristol-Edinburgh passenger numbers

I was having a look through some of the stats re EDI's record-breaking year (over 11 mppa in 2015) and discovered that in 2014 (2015's detailed breakdown is yet to be published) the Bristol route was the busiest UK route outside the London airports.

1. EDI-LHR 1.47 million
2. EDI-LGW 690,000
3. EDI-STN 360,000
4. EDI-LCY 352,000
5. EDI-BRS 323,000

In fact the Bristol route was the seventh busiest overall with only AMS (601,000) and DUB (478,000) of the international routes beating it.

 

[superking]

pushing ever closer to 7 million per year with extra rotations from fr to malaga and eir from dublin. both due to start for summer 16.
as adverts say. every little helps.

 

[Marko1]

Decembers caa provisional figs are out - an 11% increase and just a over 6.78 mill for the year - 7.1% increase

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Decembers caa provisional figs are out - an 11% increase and just a over 6.78 mill for the year - 7.1% increase

The 413,070 passengers handled in the month is the best December figure ever. Nearly every month now for more than the past two years seems to bring record numbers.

The calendar year of 2016 will require a rise of just over 3.2% (218,000 passengers) over 2015 to reach 7 million. That will be less than half the passenger number rise of 2015 (450,000 passengers).

 

[Marko1]

Airport website reporting an over 13% increase in passengers in January . Very good news

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Airport website reporting an over 13% increase in passengers in January . Very good news

Yes, an excellent start with 409,519 passengers using the airport up, as you say, 13.26% on January 2015. The CAA stats, when they are eventually published, will likely add another thousand or two to BRS's own figures because of the different way they are compiled (under 2s not counted by BRS for example) as I know that you are aware but others reading this might not be.

It looks as though January will see around 50,000 more than January 2015. It goes without saying that this is a record January for the airport but we've been saying that each month for the past two years and more.

BRS needs just under 220,000 more passengers in 2016 than in 2015 to reach seven million by the end of the year. The 50,000 additional ones for January will have already made inroads into that total with the 12-month rolling total likely to be around 6,830,000.

Winter might be better in percentage and real terms than summer each month this year because last summer all the additional flights and routes gave us that impressive increase right through the rest of the year. As we've discussed elsewhere there should be some growth through this summer with the additional easyJet aircraft, WOW and with Wizz operating through the summer when they didn't last year (apart from Katowice that began in July).

Unless something unanticipated occurs I'm confident that the seven million barrier will be breached by the end of the year.

http://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-u ... nd-figures

Incidentally BRS now puts this note on its passenger figures website each month.

*Due to differences in the way some flights are recorded, Bristol Airport figures may contain small variances when compared to those reported by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

I like to think that this forum may have played a part in getting this explanation published.

 

[jfy1999]

Did someone from the forum contact them about the discrepancy between the figures?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Did someone from the forum contact them about the discrepancy between the figures?

I have contacted the airport in the relatively recent past in a personal capacity, and I believe that other members may have done so as well but whether as members of F4A I don't know, asking about the discrepancies in the CAA and BRS passenger figures each month.

I first became aware a couple of years ago that part of the difference involved BRS not counting under 2s in their figures - I was told this in a letter from the airport's community relations officer.

I have also suggested to the airport that by doing this they undersell themselves to a degree because their monthly and annual passenger numbers, the ones usually quoted in the local press, are lower than the CAA's which most airports use in their public utterances so far as I can determine.

I used to ramble on in this forum about the discrepancies wondering why they occurred (I still mention the differences most months because there are new members and lurkers who may not be aware) and I have reason to believe that the airport management is aware of F4A and probably even reads part of the BRS threads from time to time.