CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[alphagolf]

CAA Provisional Stats - April

CAA have published stats for April and again I think they are wrong............

April Pax: 536,266....Up 5.8%
Rolling 12months: 6,414,698....Up 3.7%

April ATM: 4,431....Down 0.3%
Rolling 12months: 52,422....Down 2.9%

These are again lower than Bristol Airports own stats, I have identified at least one error whereby CAA stats suggest Zero passengers to NBE - Enfidha in Tunisia. Mayfly clearly shows Thomas Cook flying in April.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats April 2015

Alphagolf - you just beat me to it.

Given that BRS's own figures showed just under 539,000 I would have expected the CAA's to be around 541,000.

In April 2014 just under 4,500 used the Enfidha route. This April TCX had 3 flights per week on A 321s. They would have carried between 4,000 and 5,000 passengers in the month which would have taken the monthly total to around 541,000.

A few years ago the CAA missed out the BRS-GCI route nearly every month apart from a couple which gave a ridiculously low annual total that year and a ridiculous percentage rise the following year when the CAA got its act together but based the rise on the previous year's incorrect figures.

I estimate that the CAA has under calculated the BRS figures by 6,000-7,000 over the past two months.

 

[jfy1999]

The stat errors are bordering on the farcical, we may as well reach the point when we look at the CAA figures and just think, "Ok, add another 6000 pax on and that's this months figures..."

 

[Aviador]

Without wanting to sound pedantic, the CAA do refer to the initial monthly statistics release as "provisional" so effectively, they're not set in stone. I'm not sure exactly when the figures become confirmed and fixed.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Without wanting to sound pedantic, the CAA do refer to the initial monthly statistics release as "provisional" so effectively, they're not set in stone. I'm not sure exactly when the figures become confirmed and fixed.

I agree entirely although the final or confirmed figures don't usually vary by much.

My experience is that the CAA doesn't alway put right obvious mistakes. For example, the provisional BRS figures for March 2015 eventually showed 447,814 (having originally shown a ludicrous 311,000 and a drop of 27%). The 447,000 was 4,000 less than BRS's own figures which don't include such passengers as the under 2s. Until March the CAA monthly stats always showed between about 2,000 and 4,000 more passengers per month (depending on season) than BRS's own figures for the reasons just stated.

I've checked the final CAA figures for March 2015 (table 02 2) and they still show the 447,000-odd passengers that the provisional figures showed. Given that BRS's own figures for March were 451,000 one would have expected the CAA figures to be in excess of 453,000. I can't find how the anomaly has arisen but given that the CAA got itself in such a mess originally for its BRS March figures the entire month is probably a dog's dinner so far as BRS is concerned.

April 2015 CAA stats are down around 4-5,000 having regard to BRS's own stats. The anomaly here is obvious: Enfidha has been missed out (3 x weekly on TCX A 321s).

In 2012 the CAA missed out the Bristol-Guernsey figures most months although the flights operated throughout the year. The result was that just 6,833 passengers were shown as using the route that year, a reduction of 72% on 2011. In 2013 the CAA included the BRS-GCI figures every month giving an annual total of 23,670. The rise was 246% but it was based on the incorrect figures the previous year. Neither 2012 nor 2013 have been corrected and they still remain in the final CAA stats for those years on the CAA website.

Having been a 'follower' of CAA stats for nearly 20 years I've come across numerous obvious mistakes that have never been corrected, and not just relating to BRS.

 

[alphagolf]

CAA stats April 2015

Alphagolf - you just beat me to it.

Given that BRS's own figures showed just under 539,000 I would have expected the CAA's to be around 541,000.

In April 2014 just under 4,500 used the Enfidha route. This April TCX had 3 flights per week on A 321s. They would have carried between 4,000 and 5,000 passengers in the month which would have taken the monthly total to around 541,000.

A few years ago the CAA missed out the BRS-GCI route nearly every month apart from a couple which gave a ridiculously low annual total that year and a ridiculous percentage rise the following year when the CAA got its act together but based the rise on the previous year's incorrect figures.

I estimate that the CAA has under calculated the BRS figures by 6,000-7,000 over the past two months.

I have emailed the CAA about the (NBE) Enfidha route in April 2015 and also about March 2015 debacle of published provisional stats. I will update further when I receive a response.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BRS passenger figures for May up nearly 8% to over 656,000 according to the airport's own numbers - let's hope the CAA gets its act together this month.

The CEO also states that an announcement will be made soon of another major project to improve airport experience for passengers, following the completion of the eastern terminal extension which is almost ready. I presume the new project will be the western terminal extension.

[textarea]Half term holiday drives passenger growth


Charter airline growth at Bristol Airport since the start of the year has reached almost 10 per cent after a strong performance in May, contributing to a 7.8 per cent increase in passengers across all sectors for the calendar month compared to 2014.

More than 656,000* passengers used Bristol Airport in May following similar growth in April. Charter holiday traffic was particularly strong, benefitting from two Bank Holidays and culminating in a bumper week coinciding with the half term school break.

Both of the ‘big two’ tour operators in the UK have extensive flight and holiday programmes available from Bristol Airport this year. A third Thomson Airways aircraft was added to the Bristol-based fleet in May, opening up new destinations including Dubrovnik, Pula and Santorini, while Thomas Cook operates two Airbus A321s to a total of 20 destinations from the Airport throughout the summer season.

Passenger numbers also increased on scheduled flights to both domestic and international destinations. New easyJet services to Bilbao, Isle of Man, Porto, Gibraltar and Lanzarote commenced in April, followed by flights to Catania and Zante in May. Wizz Air will enter the South West market for the first time with twice weekly flights to Katowice in Poland later this month.

In response to passenger growth, investment in enlarged and enhanced facilities continues, with work on an eastern terminal extension nearing completion. In addition, a major announcement is expected to be made soon on significant improvements to the security search and arrivals areas.

Robert Sinclair, Chief Executive at Bristol Airport, said:

“The high levels of growth experienced already this summer highlight the importance of the significant investment we are making to enhance passenger facilities. Completion of the eastern terminal extension will be followed by another major project to improve key aspects of the airport experience, and we expect to announce details of this exciting development soon.

“In the meantime, we do ask passengers to make sure they leave sufficient time to complete essential processes such as security search when travelling from Bristol Airport throughout what will continue to be a busy summer of travel.”[/textarea]

Airport press release at http://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-u ... ger-growth

 

[jfy1999]

Fantastic news for BRS.
What routes are showing the strongest growth and how is the Isle of Man service doing?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Fantastic news for BRS.
What routes are showing the strongest growth and how is the Isle of Man service doing?

May's individual route numbers are yet to be published but looking at recent months I don't think that any particular route stands out. The passenger gains have been spread across many routes.

BRS was one of the best performers through the recession in that it was affected later than most airports and began to recover earlier. It saw only one annual fall in passenger numbers - 2009. Since then each year has seen a gain in passenger numbers (the only top 10 UK airport to see increased figures each year since 2009 with 2015 following the trend).

Looking at 2013, 2014 and 2015 to date, only six months saw decreases in passenger numbers (three being less than one per cent) and in this time most months have seen record numbers.

2015 will particularly benefit from an additional based easyJet Airbus (the twelfth), a third based Thomson machine and additional based bmi regional aircraft, all of which have led to additional routes.

One of the new routes, Isle of Man, seems to be gaining in popularity and currently the TT races have seen quite good loads - above 80% on occasions*. IOM won't be a major easyjet route at BRS though. As has been said elsewhere on this website, it was a surprise to many when easyJet commenced it having regard to the size of their aircraft.

* based on seat selector information

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats for May 2015

According to the CAA 652,293 passengers used the terminal in May, an increase of 6% on May 2014. Atms were up 1.6% and the rolling total was 6,451,800, an increase of 3.8% on the same period last year.

Yet again (for the third month running) these totals are wrong. For May BRS's own figures show 656,293 but of course they don't include certain types of passenger (under 2s for example) that the CAA does include, so each month until three months ago the CAA stats were always a few thousand per month more than the BRS figures.

For May the CAA still shows Enfidha as nil as it did for April and incidentally the final CAA figures for April 2015 in table 12.1 are now published and Enfidha is still shown as nil.

The final monthly total for April is also published in table 02 2 and shows 536,175 passengers, down nearly 3,000 on BRS's own figures.

In May 2014 over 8,000 flew to Enfidha and in April 2014 around 4,500 flew to Enfidha. Taking into account March's incorrect CAA total as well I estimate that the CAA figures are approximately 18,000 down for the past three months.

If the CAA continues to miss out Enfidha for the rest of the year (as it did with BRS-GCI a few years ago) BRS will be light of over 60,000 passengers in the final year's total.

 

[alphagolf]

CAA stats for May 2015

According to the CAA 652,398 passengers used the terminal in May, an increase of 6% on May 2014. Atms were up 1.6% and the rolling total was 6,451,800, an increase of 3.8% on the same period last year.

Yet again (for the third month running) these totals are wrong. For May BRS's own figures show 656,293 but of course they don't include certain types of passenger (under 2s for example) that the CAA does include, so each month until three months ago the CAA stats were always a few thousand per month more than the BRS figures.

For May the CAA still shows Enfidha as nil as it did for April and incidentally the final CAA figures for April 2015 in table 12.1 are now published and Enfidha is still shown as nil.

The final monthly total for April is also published in table 02 2 and shows 536,175 passengers, down nearly 3,000 on BRS's own figures.

In May 2014 over 8,000 flew to Enfidha and in April 2014 around 4,500 flew to Enfidha. Taking into account March's incorrect CAA total as well I estimate that the CAA figures are approximately 18,000 down for the past three months.

If the CAA continues to miss out Enfidha for the rest of the year (as it did with BRS-GCI a few years ago) BRS will be light of over 60,000 passengers in the final year's total.

Thanks TheLocalYokel

In addition the previously mentioned Enfidha errors, I also think that the current zero showing for Verona is incorrect I am sure that the Mistral Air flights commenced on the 1st May, so there is at least 5 flights to account for, I also think that the bmi regional charter started on the 23rd May so another 2 flights, so in total 7 return flight to Verona are missing from the figures. 1406 passengers travelled the route in May 2014.

I have had no response from the CAA with regards to the email I sent to them but I did get a automated response suggesting they aim to respond within 2 to 3 weeks, so will wait a little longer before making contact again.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

In addition the previously mentioned Enfidha errors, I also think that the current zero showing for Verona is incorrect I am sure that the Mistral Air flights commenced on the 1st May, so there is at least 5 flights to account for, I also think that the bmi regional charter started on the 23rd May so another 2 flights, so in total 7 return flight to Verona are missing from the figures. 1406 passengers travelled the route in May 2014.

I have had no response from the CAA with regards to the email I sent to them but I did get a automated response suggesting they aim to respond within 2 to 3 weeks, so will wait a little longer before making contact again.

Many thanks for that alphagolf.

I fail to see why an official body publishes statistics that are obviously wrong; unless BRS is feeding them incorrect material.

I will be interested to learn the CAA response, when you eventually receive one. If it's inconclusive I'll send an email to the airport asking them why the CAA is publishing statistics that show BRS carried no passengers to/from Tunisia in April and May or to/from Verona in May.

 

[alphagolf]

I have sent a tweet to UK_CAA on Twitter and copied BRS in.

Link to tweet below

https://twitter.com/flight_junkie/statu ... 9134573568

 

[alphagolf]

Tweet reply from Bristol Airport today:-

"Thanks for flagging this up. We provide all data to @UK_CAA who are responsible for publication of monthly figures"

I have responded with:-

"will you be querying this with @UK_CAA as I seem to get no response/acknowledgement from them?"

Hopefully @UK_CAA will come up with an explanation as to why their figures are wrong.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thanks again, alphagolf.

I know that to some extent airport passenger figures are only of interest to those of us who take an interest in such things for their own sake, and for those who see their local airport in the same way that fans see their favourite football team and like to compare them with local rivals. Airports' primary interest lies in the profit they make.

That said, bodies such as the Wales Assembly Government and the Welsh press often quote the CAA passenger figures for both CWL and BRS when something is in the news that affects both airports.

So far as I know the only real 'league table' of airport passenger volume is that issued by the CAA. They publish their annual figures in the form of a league table with the busiest (LHR) at the top and the others grouped underneath according to descending annual volume in much the same way that league tables are produced in football.

I wonder then why BRS undersells itself by publishing its own figures to the local press which (until the last three months) have always been noticeably lower each month and each year than the CAA stats, because BRS does not include certain types of passenger (the under 2s for example) whereas the CAA does.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Tweet reply from Bristol Airport today:-

"Thanks for flagging this up. We provide all data to @UK_CAA who are responsible for publication of monthly figures"

I have responded with:-

"will you be querying this with @UK_CAA as I seem to get no response/acknowledgement from them?"

Hopefully @UK_CAA will come up with an explanation as to why their figures are wrong.

I take it still no response from the CAA. The provisional CAA stats for May still show Enfidha and Verona as nil.

I was going to contact the airport but in view of recent events it's probably inappropriate to do so at present re NBE. If Verona is not included in the final May stats (I don't expect it to be if it's not in the provisional ones) I will email BRS if it's missed from the CAA June stats.

 

[conns757]

Local

All pax data is sent to CAA . They publish . Refer to CAA I think .

June up 9+% !

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Local

All pax data is sent to CAA . They publish . Refer to CAA I think .

June up 9+% !

Many thanks conns. Great new re the June figures.

I certainly take your point about the CAA publishing the figures that BRS sends them but the CAA doesn't publish them all at times, and when it doesn't it's reluctant to clarify, vide alphagolf's attempts.

For example, the CAA still shows the BRS-GCI route in 2012 as carrying 6,800 passengers because for most months of that year they showed the route as nil passengers. 2013 was recorded accurately each month with a total of over 23,000 passengers.

I know that in the great scheme of things such matters are mere trifles but I do feel that if a public body expends time and effort in publishing stats they at least ought to be accurate.

If the CAA gets June wrong I'll contact them but I don't anticipate any more success than alphagolf achieved.

That BRS is doing so well with new routes and constantly increasing passenger numbers, together with the ever expanding infrastructure to cope with them, is due to the hard work put in by those members of the airport company with responsibility for such things. They deserve high praise and the thanks of the region.

 

[alphagolf]

Bristol Airport publish June 2015 airport statistics

Another great set of results, CAA stats published but Bristol not included in the first release.

June 2015 Pax

Total..............................705,925.....UP 9.18%

June 2015 Movements

Total..............................6,875........UP 9.63%

YTD 2015 Pax

Total..............................3,091,050...UP 6.97%

YTD 2015 Movements

Total..............................32,197.......UP 6.89%

Bristol Airport Website Link

http://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-us/news-and-media/facts-and-figures

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Indeed excellent figures.

It's only the third time that 700,000 passengers has been seen in a month. The previous occasions were the busiest summer month of August, in both 2014 and in 2013.

Normally one would expect the CAA stats to show at least 710,000 (for those unaware BRS does not include certain types of passenger - the under 2s for example but the CAA does) but we know the muddle that the CAA has got itself into re BRS stats since March when every month has been incorrect.

If the CAA manages to get its act together for the rest of the year August would be near 800,000, although I don't think it would be quite reached.