CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

September seems to have started well but looking at next week's Mayfly, there seems to be around 2% fewer seats available across the board compared with the same week last year.

I posted the above in this thread a couple of weeks ago.

I've now checked the first complete week in October against the same week last year and Mayfly shows just over 4% fewer seats this year. Tuesdays and Wednesdays seem to have taken the biggest hit with easyJet reducing rotations on such routes as NCL, BFS and PSA on these days.

In total easyJet has 29 rotations on the Tuesday this year against 33 last year and the Ryanair figures are 15 this year and 17 last year.

In total easyJet has 26 rotations on the Wednesday this year against 30 last year and the Ryanair figures are 15 this year and last year.

Other reasons include the loss of the daily E190 Air France flight.

So if September is a challenge to get some sort of passenger numbers rise then October will be an even greater one.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

September 2014

CAA stats now released and show that 659,760 passengers used the terminal in the month, up 2.2% on September 2013. Atms were down 4.7%. Rolling 12-month figure was 6,288,713, up 3.6% on a year ago.

I posted a few weeks ago that Mayfly showed about 2% fewer seats than in September 2013 (the 4.7% drop in atms suggests that a lower percentage seat drop occurred because BRS saw more larger aircraft this year, notably with Thomas Cook and easyJet). So to achieve a gain of 2.2% in passenger numbers is creditable again as it has been through most of the summer against fewer atms each month.

Yet again we see a record month for the airport - previous best September was last year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

[textarea]I've now checked the first complete week in October against the same week last year and Mayfly shows just over 4% fewer seats this year. Tuesdays and Wednesdays seem to have taken the biggest hit with easyJet reducing rotations on such routes as NCL, BFS and PSA on these days.

In total easyJet has 29 rotations on the Tuesday this year against 33 last year and the Ryanair figures are 15 this year and 17 last year.

In total easyJet has 26 rotations on the Wednesday this year against 30 last year and the Ryanair figures are 15 this year and last year.

Other reasons include the loss of the daily E190 Air France flight.

So if September is a challenge to get some sort of passenger numbers rise then October will be an even greater one.[/textarea]

September managed a 2.2% rise in passenger numbers despite there being about 2% fewer seats across the board.

October will do well to break even in passenger numbers; a small increase would be extremely creditable.

I've now looked at November and Mayfly suggests that seat numbers will be down about 4% on last November. Saturday sees only 33 rotations in the day, which is about a third of the number in peak summer. Saturdays will improve when the ski flights kick in later in December.

At certain times of some days, notably Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Saturdays, the airport will be extremely quiet this month.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

October 2014

CAA monthly stats not yet published but the airport's own figures show that in October 585,843 passengers were handled which is an increase of 2.51% on October 2013. Atms were down 3.21%.

Because of the different ways that the information is collated (BRS does not include under 2s unlike the CAA for instance) the CAA stats will almost certainly be higher when published. Either way it will be yet another record month for the airport with last year being the previous best October.

I posted this comment last month.

I've now checked the first complete week in October against the same week last year and Mayfly shows just over 4% fewer seats this year...............October will do well to break even in passenger numbers; a small increase would be extremely creditable.

Going forward into next year, at least from the end of March, it does seem that at long last BRS's annual rising passenger numbers trend of the past few years will no longer have to be accomplished against falling atms.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats October 2014

Now published and as expected show more passengers than the airport's own figures for the reasons explained earlier.

589,609 passengers used the airport, an increase of 2.5% on October 2013. Atms were down 6.2%. Rolling 12-month total was 6,302,270 up 3.4% on a year ago.

An extremely creditable performance having regard to the loss of rotations and seats compared with October 2013.

Now need November and December to do their bit to ensure the total remains above 6.3 million for the first time ever in a calendar year. It's going to be a record year anyway short of something calamitous occurring.

 

[Marko1]

November figures are out on the airport website . 372,416 up 2.74% rolling year 5915065 up 3.30%

 

[superking]

very good pax figures for the quietest month of the year.
bodes well for all the other months with new routes and the ski runs in full flow from december.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

November figures are out on the airport website . 372,416 up 2.74% rolling year 5915065 up 3.30%

The CAA stats are now out for November and, as always, they show a higher figure than BRS's own figures partly because BRS does not count under 2s in its stats, unlike the CAA.

The CAA shows that 374,097 passengers used the terminal in November, up 2.7% on November 2013. Atms were down 5.4%. Rolling 12-month total was 6,312,089 up 3.2% on a year ago.

Back in the early autumn I posted that I expected October to be down a bit and I was pretty well certain that November would be because of the substantial reduced number of seats on offer compared with those months in 2013. Well, I was wrong in both cases with both months showing low percentage rises which taken with the signifiant reduced number of seats was extremely surprising and encouraging because it meant that loads must have been up generally.

I've been saying for a number of years that BRS cannot keep seeing annual passenger rises with reduced number of flights each year. It still does but next year promises to see a substantial increase in flights with the enhanced easyJet offering, the third based TOM aircraft in summer and more frequencies with bmi regional on FRA, MUC and ABZ. 2015 ought therefore to see passenger numbers reach around 6.5 million and possibly a bit more.

What now seems guaranteed is that 2014 will be a record year beating 2008's 6.229 million passengers and the third in the airport's history when the 6 million barrier was breached (the other time was last year).

 

[superking]

Back in the early autumn I posted that I expected October to be down a bit and I was pretty well certain that November would be because of the substantial reduced number of seats on offer compared with those months in 2013. Well, I was wrong in both cases with both months showing low percentage rises which taken with the signifiant reduced number of seats was extremely surprising and encouraging because it meant that loads must have been up generally.
posted by thelocalyokel

keep getting yr thoughts wrong jim.haha only kidding.
it was a lot better than i thought they would be, just my thinking like yrs.
i must say it does look good for next summer.
apart from sorting out cdg, i think turkish ought to be looked at, it would be a nice range of destinations. i have noticed they are advertising on the local htv channels. weather this is early days for meaning something. time will tell.

 

[Marko1]

I think Turkish could be the perfect fit for brs right size aircraft etc. when u look at the destinations they serve across Europe it's a surprise they haven't come to brs yet . Does anyone think that easyjet will add any more routes or frequencies and will Ryanair or bmi add any new routes .

 

[superking]

I think Turkish could be the perfect fit for brs right size aircraft etc. when u look at the destinations they serve across Europe it's a surprise they haven't come to brs yet . Does anyone think that easyjet will add any more routes or frequencies and will Ryanair or bmi add any new routes .

easyjet you never know with them,but we havent done too bad with routes from them in the last few weeks.
ryanair well they a law to themselves, with dropping and adding routes, but you never know.
bmi reg there was talk back along with new routes.would be nice to get a code share to cdg. it would work very well that one.they have increased the routes they doing now. other than that only they know.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think Turkish could be the perfect fit for brs right size aircraft etc. when u look at the destinations they serve across Europe it's a surprise they haven't come to brs yet . Does anyone think that easyjet will add any more routes or frequencies and will Ryanair or bmi add any new routes .

I have a feeling that talks are ongoing with Turkish. However, there may be two problems if Turkish is interested: decent slot availability at Istanbul and a shortage of aircraft, both because of the airline's huge expansion in recent years.

It's likely that Emirates, Qatar and Etihad won't be looking at BRS because their aircraft might be too big operationally and possibly commercially. Therefore airports such as BRS and LBA might be on Turkish's radar safe in the knowledge that none of the MEB 3 is likely to turn up.

As for easyJet, there are now 17 additional weekly rotations which seems to take care of the 12th aircraft bearing in mind that of the new routes Lanzarote and Zante will probably form part of a four-sector day rather than a six-sector day. There might be just enough room to squeeze in another short route in the additional aircraft's schedule but I would bet, if I did bet that is, that this might be the lot from easyJet for next summer, and seven new routes is certainly something to be extremely pleased about especially as most are year-round routes.

It seems that easyJet will continue to build at BRS so 2016 might see a 13th based aircraft with more new routes then.

Ryanair has been static at BRS for several years although some routes come and some routes go. With easyJet becoming ever more dominant I suppose Ryanair might try to respond in kind or they might decide the current level is about right for them. I'm not a huge Ryanair fan but I would hate to see their presence diminish because I know that many, many people use them and are delighted with what they receive.

It's difficult to predict bmi regional. Anecdotal 'evidence' suggest that they are building at BRS and that the current enhanced 2015 programme may not take full advantage of the size that some suggest the airline will reach at the airport next year. They are increasing ABZ, FRA and MUC in 2015 whereas MXP seems to have joined HAJ from last year in the axed department.

Looking from without and with no knowledge of likely costs or yields routes such as Zurich and even Paris (perhaps Orly) might seem attractive propositions to the lay person. But then again I thought that MXP would have been a good bet but it did not turn out to be despite loads as high as the German routes most of the time.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats December 2014

372,759 passengers used the terminal in the month, a rise of 6.1% on December 2013. Atms were down 0.7%. Rolling 12-month total, which is also the annual total for 2014, was 6,333,532, up 3.4% on a year ago.

This was BRS's best calendar year ever beating the previous best (2008) by around 104,000.

The last three months have exceeded my expectations with available seats down on the same period in 2013. I expected some small decreases in October, November and December. The conclusion can only be that load factors were markedly up.

In the year as a whole the 3.4% passenger increase was achieved against a fall of 2.6% in atms.

After several years of annual passenger gains with falling airline movements 2015 is shaping up to be very promising with the additional flights on offer. Short of some major unexpected happening 2015 might well see the 6.5 mppa barrier broken.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats discrepancies

Having been a regular reader of CAA stats for many years (yes, I know) I've noticed that the figures sometimes don't make sense or are inconsistent.

For example in November 2014 on BRS-TFS CAA stats (table 12.1) show a total 13,997 passengers using the route, broken down into 10,991 scheduled and 3,006 charter. There were 50 scheduled sectors in the month (26 by Ryanair and 24 by easyJet) so the average scheduled load (across both airlines) was just under 220...........on 180-seat and 189-seat aircraft!

The previous year's figures for the month in question are shown as is always the case with the CAA stats, and in November 2013 13,193 passengers used the route with 9,731 scheduled and 3,462 charter. Again this means that there were more scheduled passengers than seats available.

Yet if you look back to the actual CAA stats for November 2013, table 12.1 then shows the same overall total (13,193) but there are only 7,393 scheduled ones and 5,801 charter. The scheduled figures make a lot more sense as they give an average load of around 150.

Table 12.1 relates to final figures and not the provisional ones that are published a month or two before the final ones for a given month.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

2015

I saw Shaun Browne the BRS routes director on the local tv news this evening. He said the airport anticipates a 6% to 8% rise in passenger numbers in 2015 which would take the annual total to around 6.7/6.8 million. He went on to say that he expects the 7 mppa barrier to be breached in 2016.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

January 2015

The year is off to a good start with BRS's own figures showing 358,911 passengers passing through the terminal, a rise of 5.42% on January 2014. Atms were up 0.8%.

The CAA stats should be published tomorrow and the percentage rise should be similar although the total passenger numbers should be up a bit because of the differing ways the airport and CAA record the figures (for example, BRS does not include under2s whereas the CAA does).

Addendum (16.2.15)

CAA stats now published and show 361,143 passengers in January 2015, up 5.4% on January 2014. Atms were down 4.3% which is out of kilter with BRS's own figures. Rolling 12-month total was 6,351,712 which is up 3.2% on a year ago.

 

[superking]

funny thoughts going on in my mind.



For example in November 2014 on BRS-TFS CAA stats (table 12.1) show a total 13,997 passengers using the route, broken down into 10,991 scheduled and 3,006 charter. There were 50 scheduled sectors in the month (26 by Ryanair and 24 by easyJet) so the average scheduled load (across both airlines) was just under 220...........on 180-seat and 189-seat aircraft!

now then back along there was talk on the dried plum about fr taking the seats out and making every one huddle togeather, so it could get more pax per flt.
now with that paragraph that localyokal posted. was this tried out of brs and no body heard about it. be keen to learn if that was the case,or if any one else has any ideas.
not much news about so thought would keep thread going with this question/news.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

now then back along there was talk on the dried plum about fr taking the seats out and making every one huddle togeather, so it could get more pax per flt.
now with that paragraph that localyokal posted. was this tried out of brs and no body heard about it. be keen to learn if that was the case,or if any one else has any ideas.
not much news about so thought would keep thread going with this question/news.

Nice thought. I now know why a friend told me that Ryanair aircraft are equipped with ceiling straps and a notice at the front of the cabin saying: seats 189 standees 35. They are also searching for experienced bus conductors with penetrating voices able to shout, "Move down the plane, plenty of room at the back".

I'm certain that for whatever reason the CAA stats become muddled at times. A similar example occurred with the recent CAA stats on CWL-NCL and I've noted other discrepancies in the past.

 

[superking]

another thought jim. if they didnt take the toilets out like they said they were. the only seat for pax, so one almighty queue.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Could have a line of urinals along the wall of the cabin. Even the ladies could be catered for with these. http://www.shewee.com

I reckon an all-standing Boeing 737-800 could carry several hundred passengers.

Back to more mundane Ryanair matters, have you (or anyone else) noticed the 'Sensurround' echo of the engines when they come in to land under certain weather conditions? More than once I've been on Felton Common when for perhaps nearly half a minute after the aircraft has passed overhead to land the engine noise echo seems to reverberate all around.

I'm not saying this doesn't happen with other aircraft types - it's just that I've particularly noticed the Ryanair aircraft.