Virgin Atlantic

[Dobbo]

DL is still showing daily 757-200 for the MAN-JFK route in winter. Delta are offering a daily 767-300 from March 26th to May 25th (when they end). In my opinion, this was working well and should have just been continued. Another possible option is that in Summer 2018, VS operates two JFK services and DL operates the other five, thus allowing an A330 to still be utilised with 4x weekly SFO?

That may be the kind of solution they need to keep SFO.

This is very out there given the struggles of BOS, but if VS still want to go for MAN-LAX they could use 2x A330s to run daily JFK and 3x weekly LAX and SFO (there may be a spare slot in this - I don't know).

I think it is important to place this in the proper context:

• Brexit and Trump have combined to deliver very uncertain economic conditions.
• The £/$ rate has made the USA much more expensive than previously.
• Fuel prices are increasing, which also has upward pressure on costs and downward pressure on yields.

Against this backdrop, we have seen the following:

• VS have shortened the season of two new routes by around one month.
• One of those new routes was rumoured to be year round and it seems it no longer will be.
• DL's actions seem to be consistent with a full handover from DL to VS at MAN (as previously expected).

It has been known for some time that downward pressure would come following the enormous growth of the past few years. If MAN can ride out the next year or two with modest growth on long haul routes (east and west) it should be in good shape for (we hope) another phase of growth.

We don't want to be in the same position as 2009 where 10 years of growth was wiped out.

 

[Aceshigh]

I think the anchor has well and truly been thrown out re US. !

 

[Dobbo]

I think the anchor has well and truly been thrown out re US. !

How do you mean Aceshigh?

 

[rutamkrd]

The slow down (heavy brake) on the economy in Q4 has been predicted with some certainty since the autumn and the signs have been with us with delay/cancelation, none start and consolidations for some months !

Air Malta going

American not even operating a daily service at the moment and Q4 - JFK going short time with over deep winter Chicago certain to remain none op with the B75w performance issues .The BA take over nothing but chatter and fluff imho

United- Washington canned.

Delta/VS winter scheduled uncertain, although DL421/221 does show in some scheduled till Christmas

Air China - remains in the hold

Monarch remains in ITU although they have paid the ATOL fees apparently.

Flybe/Loganair divorce effect uncertain.

Air Transat - Calgary gone !

Thomson/TUI - Giving up on Dubai cruises after one season oh and Mauritius !

I think will are also going to see some European trimming in the near future.

Do I think we will see contraction in terminal passengers regretfully I think so in 2018 through to 2020.

From 25 million to 30 million is going take more time than many here , in dried fruit and especially in skyscraper ! expect/believe/wish for .

 

[Dobbo]

Provided the economy does no worse than slows (rather than contracts) over the next 2-3 years, we will do okay. The fundamentals at MAN are strong.

 

[ethanegcc]

Delta to JFK shows until the end of available bookings currently (around 20th January). Chicago is operating for a longer season next year (by a few days) but all with 767 aircraft. So, yes I think that there will be cut backs but not as devastating as you present.

Re. Air Malta - they were facing extremely tough competition on the MLA route, I don't think it has anything remotely do to with the low value of the pound, economy or so-called 'Trump Slump'

 

[Dobbo]

VS reductions confirmed, including SFO and BOS not operating in October:

• VS ATL-MAN APR 1.0>0.7
• VS BOS-MAN OCT 0.2>0
• VS SFO-MAN OCT 0.4>0

 

[ethanegcc]

I don't know if we can take the ATL decrease as a decrease though with Delta taking some slack. Although on google flights currently the ATL schedule is absurd! No flights 7th, 8th, 9th, 14th, 15th, 21st, 22nd but two flights (DL 77L and VS 333) on 16th and 23rd!

 

[ethanegcc]

If what is bookable currently is to symbolise the end product, this what we will see:

Week commencing: Apr 3rd
VS 109 MAN 1050 ATL 1455 333 ex567

Week commencing: Apr 10th/Apr 17th
VS 109 MAN 1050 ATL 1455 333 ex56
DL 157 MAN 1325 ATL 1725 77L 7

However, Delta's timetable still shows DL157 operating Friday and Saturday of both weeks.

Also interesting:
VS ATL-LHR APR 1.7>1.2

LHR is affected as well. So LHR are seeing a larger decrease on VS ATL routes than we are.

 

[Land23R]

If I understand these frequency changes with decimal points, LHR is reducing from 12 weekly flights to 9. MAN is down from daily to 5 x weekly. When does that reduction at MAN apply Dobbo?

If Virgin's bookings to the US are down overall from LHR, LGW and MAN, (and I don't know if that is the case) then it's hardly surprising if they are implementing cuts for cost savings purposes. What's happening is disappointing and there's little point trying to dress it up in my view.

Until Brexit negotiations are completed successfully and unless the BoE decides the pound has fallen too far and adjusts interest rates back up (which it shows no signs of doing), or unless the Trump administration stabilises and takes action to depreciate the dollar, then I suspect the market for UK tourists going to the US will remain very fragile. I hope MAN is not adversely affected more than the London airports, GLA or EDI. Meanwhile, every effort needs to be made to get business coming in the other direction assuming Americans are still prepared to travel abroad.

Incidentally, I agree with rutamkrd's point about BA. I still don't understand how that initial speculation snowballed to such an extent.

 

[Dobbo]

If I understand these frequency changes with decimal points, LHR is reducing from 12 weekly flights to 9. MAN is down from daily to 5 x weekly. When does that reduction at MAN apply Dobbo?

Hi Land23R

ATL reduction for April only, previously reported due to staff shortage (DL operated B77L in replacement). SFO and BOS is October.

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes, the ATL reduction had already been reported due to staff shortages. However, the schedule for the proposed DL 77L operation is also in a mess. For ATL, there are about three or four ad-hoc cancellations through the summer (up to August) then daily service right through to the end of the schedules.

 

[David_itl]

Incidentally, I agree with rutamkrd's point about BA. I still don't understand how that initial speculation snowballed to such an extent.

Any such routes by BA were speculated for 2018. Hence it wouldn't be till September/October earliest I would have thought that any announcement would be made.

 

[Dobbo]

Just to add further weight to this, there have been comments from BA's CEO suggesting plans were in the pipeline but not "imminent" and there have been numerous pieces of the puzzle falling together from different angles. They have been assembled and paint a broadly consistent picture.

I think the point has to be made: it would be very odd indeed if BA had no plans for MAN. Whether the commercial picture is ever in place to make them happen I don't know. Since these plans have started to emerge, the US-UK picture has changed significantly, and this may have had an impact (I have no idea).

 

[Aceshigh]

The BA product from Heathrow is a shadow if it's former self. I'm not sure what they would bring to the party.


http://www.independent.co.uk/travel...than-ryanair-response-criticism-a7614836.html

 

[yorkie40]

Had a flight from man to jfk via Heathrow on BA and the legroom on the a321 down to LHR what's a dam sight better that the b777 to jfk

 

[Dobbo]

Had a flight from man to jfk via Heathrow on BA and the legroom on the a321 down to LHR what's a dam sight better that the b777 to jfk

One for the BA Thread?

 

[yorkie40]

Just to add further weight to this, there have been comments from BA's CEO suggesting plans were in the pipeline but not "imminent" and there have been numerous pieces of the puzzle falling together from different angles. They have been assembled and paint a broadly consistent picture.

I think the point has to be made: it would be very odd indeed if BA had no plans for MAN. Whether the commercial picture is ever in place to make them happen I don't know. Since these plans have started to emerge, the US-UK picture has changed significantly, and this may have had an impact (I have no idea).[/QUOTE BA thread I believe

 

[Dobbo]

Hi Yorkie40

Want having a pop at you - just conscious that we were going OT. Was hoping a MOD would move the posts across.

It's interesting that the leg room isn't great. I've never flown BA long haul so any operation they have from MAN is of interest...

 

[ethanegcc]

Virgin/Delta Atlanta Flights
All up and bookable with no hitches now! Great news. No flight on the 8th and 21st only, with two flights on 16th and 23rd.
Week commencing (3rd) Not Easter Holidays
VS 125 MAN 1050 ATL 1455 ex567
DL 157 MAN 1050 ATL 1455 57

Flights per week: Six flights per week

Week commencing (10th) Easter Holidays
VS 125 MAN 1050 ATL 1455 ex56
DL 157 MAN 1050 ATL 1455 56
DL 157 MAN 1325 ATL 1730 7 (two flights VS and DL on Sunday).

Flights per week: Eight flights per week

Week commencing (17th) Easter Holidays
VS 125 MAN 1050 ATL 1455 ex56
DL 157 MAN 1050 ATL 1455 6
DL 157 MAN 1325 ATL 1730 7 (two flights VS and DL on Sunday)

Flights per week: seven flights-per week