- Oct 27, 2015
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The period from around 2015 to 2017 what we know so far) has seen an explosion of capacity into the USA from Manchester. TCX, VS/DL have been very aggressive, and with Norwegian waiting in the wings we *could* face an overcapacity bloodbath.
Against the backdrop of this AA/BA have not had the best of times, with their routes to JFK, PHL, ORD coming under sustained pressure.
Added to this, we think Air Canada are taking more of an interest in MAN, with a new route to Vancouver and an extended season to Toronto mooted for a longer season.
The market looks to be highly seasonal, but are we approaching a saturation point? The total volume of passengers at MAN is now some 2.5m higher than the previous peak in 2006. So where are we in the Manchester to North America market, and might we see saturation point reached?
The figures below are taken from David_itl's CAA stats (credit to him) where I have drawn out the relevant information.
It is important to note that each of the peaks reflect a "high water mark" from the early 1990s. This means that individual highs do not necesaraly mean a collective one (see PHL in 2010). Also, a growing market in one place may be detracting from another (e.g. The rise of JFK may be detracting from EWR and PHL). IAH may detract from IAH and EWR connecting traffic.
This is merely indicative of what may be possible at MAN with the correct combination. There is every reason for a bright future. By way of comparison, Emirates expect to break 1m passengers in the 2016-17 financial year. The main issue seems to be the extreme seasonal nature of the routes. Perhaps this can be reversed?
Please feel free to comment and discuss below.
Main USA routes:
Atlanta
The route peaked in 2000 at 173,792. I don't know the detail of who operated it (presumably DL for one) but this works out at 238 passengers per day each way. In 2015 the route carried 140,610 (193 passengers per day each way) with a nigh on daily service by VS on the A333. Given VS's intended expansion, this seems unlikely to be bettered.
Chicago
This route peaked in 2005 as 283,552. I understand BMI and aaaa operated at this time and the fact that this is 388 passengers per day is indicative of a multiple daily frequency. In 2015 the route carried 82,222 with AA only operating a seasonal service. Even accounting for changes in patterns and more direct flights this is a remarkable decline. Perhaps it can be reversed with a reliable service?
New York Airports (JFK & EWR)
This peaked in 2000 at 414,410, representing 568 passengers per day each way. I do not know who operated at that time. From that peak the route declined significantly but has undergone a renaissance of late, bouncing back to 344,225 in 2015 and displaying strong growth in 2016. Of more interest is the relative fortunes of JFK and EWR, showing a strong shift towards use of JFK (presumably due to BMI's demise and the rise of TCX?).
Orlando Airports
This route remains very strong, peaking in 2007 at 667,125 (914 per day each way!) and is currently at 503,788. Probably little of interest here?
Washington
This route, in a similar vein to Chicago, has suffered following a peak of 110,304 in 2004 (roughly a B757 load per day). I do not know who operated the route at that time (BMI?). It is now seasonal and 64,432 were carried in 2015. However, if the season was 6 months long this actually reflects a stronger performance than the 2004 peak. The 2017 season is now being cut short and one wonders whether a poor 2017 (in light of the capacity enhancements elsewhere) will see it return in 2018.
Philadelphia
This route has remained strong for some time, peaking at 172,069 in 2010 (otherwise a quiet year for MAN). This was supported by a high level of premium demand and supposedly cargo. It has tailed off significantly of late, with a slight reduction in capacity over W16/17 and 129,995 carried in 2015. It may have suffered with the rise of JFK.
Los Angeles
This route has for some time been held up as the poster child for either: BAs failure to deliver a bona fide longhaul service from the UK regions work, or BAs inability to make money from the regions (depending on your viewpoint). The peak of 60,065 in 1993 has not been challenged as TCX commenced a service in June 2016 (I know the intention is to increase in S17 but does it remain a seasonal service?).
Toronto
Although the VFR market has undoubtedly shifted with the generations, the market remains strong if highly seasonal. 191,361 flew in 2000 at its peak and 103,453 in 2015. The 2000 peak is in excess of a B788 per day each way, so if the present rumours of AC returning on a permanent basis have foundations, the theoretical market is there but does it tail of in the dark months of winter?
Vancouver
In a similar boat to Toronto, but the market is unproven. Rumours of AC mainline indicate the market is strengthening from the 28,206 carried in 2016, but can it reach the 84,184 carried in 2005? Transat offer a good service for a loco carrier, but can the route sustain AC mainline?
Against the backdrop of this AA/BA have not had the best of times, with their routes to JFK, PHL, ORD coming under sustained pressure.
Added to this, we think Air Canada are taking more of an interest in MAN, with a new route to Vancouver and an extended season to Toronto mooted for a longer season.
The market looks to be highly seasonal, but are we approaching a saturation point? The total volume of passengers at MAN is now some 2.5m higher than the previous peak in 2006. So where are we in the Manchester to North America market, and might we see saturation point reached?
The figures below are taken from David_itl's CAA stats (credit to him) where I have drawn out the relevant information.
It is important to note that each of the peaks reflect a "high water mark" from the early 1990s. This means that individual highs do not necesaraly mean a collective one (see PHL in 2010). Also, a growing market in one place may be detracting from another (e.g. The rise of JFK may be detracting from EWR and PHL). IAH may detract from IAH and EWR connecting traffic.
This is merely indicative of what may be possible at MAN with the correct combination. There is every reason for a bright future. By way of comparison, Emirates expect to break 1m passengers in the 2016-17 financial year. The main issue seems to be the extreme seasonal nature of the routes. Perhaps this can be reversed?
Please feel free to comment and discuss below.
Main USA routes:
Atlanta
The route peaked in 2000 at 173,792. I don't know the detail of who operated it (presumably DL for one) but this works out at 238 passengers per day each way. In 2015 the route carried 140,610 (193 passengers per day each way) with a nigh on daily service by VS on the A333. Given VS's intended expansion, this seems unlikely to be bettered.
Chicago
This route peaked in 2005 as 283,552. I understand BMI and aaaa operated at this time and the fact that this is 388 passengers per day is indicative of a multiple daily frequency. In 2015 the route carried 82,222 with AA only operating a seasonal service. Even accounting for changes in patterns and more direct flights this is a remarkable decline. Perhaps it can be reversed with a reliable service?
New York Airports (JFK & EWR)
This peaked in 2000 at 414,410, representing 568 passengers per day each way. I do not know who operated at that time. From that peak the route declined significantly but has undergone a renaissance of late, bouncing back to 344,225 in 2015 and displaying strong growth in 2016. Of more interest is the relative fortunes of JFK and EWR, showing a strong shift towards use of JFK (presumably due to BMI's demise and the rise of TCX?).
Orlando Airports
This route remains very strong, peaking in 2007 at 667,125 (914 per day each way!) and is currently at 503,788. Probably little of interest here?
Washington
This route, in a similar vein to Chicago, has suffered following a peak of 110,304 in 2004 (roughly a B757 load per day). I do not know who operated the route at that time (BMI?). It is now seasonal and 64,432 were carried in 2015. However, if the season was 6 months long this actually reflects a stronger performance than the 2004 peak. The 2017 season is now being cut short and one wonders whether a poor 2017 (in light of the capacity enhancements elsewhere) will see it return in 2018.
Philadelphia
This route has remained strong for some time, peaking at 172,069 in 2010 (otherwise a quiet year for MAN). This was supported by a high level of premium demand and supposedly cargo. It has tailed off significantly of late, with a slight reduction in capacity over W16/17 and 129,995 carried in 2015. It may have suffered with the rise of JFK.
Los Angeles
This route has for some time been held up as the poster child for either: BAs failure to deliver a bona fide longhaul service from the UK regions work, or BAs inability to make money from the regions (depending on your viewpoint). The peak of 60,065 in 1993 has not been challenged as TCX commenced a service in June 2016 (I know the intention is to increase in S17 but does it remain a seasonal service?).
Toronto
Although the VFR market has undoubtedly shifted with the generations, the market remains strong if highly seasonal. 191,361 flew in 2000 at its peak and 103,453 in 2015. The 2000 peak is in excess of a B788 per day each way, so if the present rumours of AC returning on a permanent basis have foundations, the theoretical market is there but does it tail of in the dark months of winter?
Vancouver
In a similar boat to Toronto, but the market is unproven. Rumours of AC mainline indicate the market is strengthening from the 28,206 carried in 2016, but can it reach the 84,184 carried in 2005? Transat offer a good service for a loco carrier, but can the route sustain AC mainline?
