CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[alphagolf]

January 2017

Bristol Airport have published their own stats for January 2017

Pax 467,734 UP 15.06% on January 2016
Movements 5,079 UP 10.06% on January 2016

Another good set of results

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-us/news-and-media/facts-and-figures

 

[TheLocalYokel]

January 2017

Bristol Airport have published their own stats for January 2017

Pax 467,734 UP 15.06% on January 2016
Movements 5,079 UP 10.06% on January 2016

Another good set of results

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-us/news-and-media/facts-and-figures

That equates to over 60,000 more passengers than in January 2016 which is a good start towards the 8 mppa level.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

December 2016

At long last the CAA has published its stats for BRS for the above month. It shows that 507,587 passengers used the airport in the month, up 22.9% on December 2015.

The CAA's 2016 total for the year for BRS is 7.604 million. The 'league table' has been taken down for December but the total can be calculated from Table 09. Using this and previous 'CAA months' I make the actual total to be 7,604,697 which is a rise of 12.1% on the calendar year of 2015.

Comparing the CAA's and BRS's own totals there is a significant disparity. Because BRS does not count under 2s and some other types of passenger (I don't know what they are) their numbers are invariably lower each month and therefore each year than the CAA.

So in December for example BRS shows 501,585, six thousand fewer than the CAA, and for 2016 as a whole BRS shows 7.532 million whereas the CAA shows 7.604 million, a difference of 72,000. Using the CAA's figures it means that 2016 saw a rise of 823,000 passengers, not 750,000 as shown by BRS.

Why BRS would want to consistently underplay its passenger numbers I have no idea. The CAA gets its own figures from BRS anyway, so BRS must include those it doesn't count itself in the numbers it supplies to the CAA. It's bizarre.

Incidentally, these are all terminal passengers. BRS has few transit passengers - 550 in December - and they are not included in any of the above figures.

With the 60,000+ BRS tells us was the increase for January this year (the CAA will doubtless have more) the CAA total is already well on the way towards 7.7 million after the first month of the year.

 

[kraktoa]

The under reporting is exclusively children under 2. Makes me wonder if there is a statutory provision that the airport has to make in terms of facilities (baby changing, feeding mothers etc) if the number of child passenger goes above a certain threshold. Is BRS trying to hide that stat?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The under reporting is exclusively children under 2. Makes me wonder if there is a statutory provision that the airport has to make in terms of facilities (baby changing, feeding mothers etc) if the number of child passenger goes above a certain threshold. Is BRS trying to hide that stat?

But saying publicly that they exclude under 2s (which they have said publicly in the past) wouldn't really hide that stat. Furthermore, it's a simple matter for anyone to get hold of the CAA stats (well, not quite as easy these days given the CAA's dilatoriness in publishing stats) and compare them with BRS's own stats.

72,000 under 2s in a year (which was the discrepancy between the BRS and CAA figures for the whole of 2016) equates to an average of just under 200 under 2s each day.

I'll have another go at trying to get BRS to explain why they underplay their passenger figures.

 

[alphagolf]

Bristol Airport CAA Stats 2016

Have worked on a bit of number crunching and come up with the Top 20 Routes for 2016 based on total pax numbers:-

1. AMS - 408,560
2. DUB - 399,024
3. EDI - 381,945
4. PMI - 340,262
5. AGP - 337,450
6. ALC - 313,420
7. GLA - 297,295
8. FAO - 291,226
9. BFS - 249,481
10. GVA - 221,909
11. TFS - 199,655
12. NCL - 164,595
13. ACE - 158,138
14. BCN - 151,588
15. CDG - 138,949
16. KRK - 112,119
17. FCO - 108,715
18. TLS - 108,424
19. MAD - 102,379
20. IBZ - 97,088

Airports moving into the Top 20 are:
IBZ - Ibiza
KRK - Krakow
MAD - Madrid

Dropping Out:
DLM - Dalaman
INV - Inverness
SXF - Berlin

Data compiled using CAA Stats.

 

[BRSregular]

and I've just copied and pasted your post from last year and added the approximate increases on each route...

The ten busiest routes in 2015 were:

Amsterdam 384,000 (24,000 increase in 2016)
Dublin 378,000 (21,000 increase)
Edinburgh 352,000 (29,000 increase)
Malaga 300,000 (37,000 increase)
Palma 289,000 (51,000 increase moving it up to 4th place in 2016)
Faro 273,000 (8th position in 2016 but still an 18,000 increase)
Alicante 271,000 (42,000 increase)
Glasgow 267,000 (30,000 increase)
Belfast 246,000 (3,000 increase)
Geneva 206,000 (15,000 increase)
Total passenger number in 2015 was 6.781 million

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Airports moving into the Top 20 are:
IBZ - Ibiza
KRK - Krakow
MAD - Madrid

Dropping Out:
DLM - Dalaman
INV - Inverness
SXF - Berlin

A very interesting list, alphagolf.

I'm fairly confident in saying that this is the first time that any single route has flown over 400,000 passengers in a calendar year (probably in any 12-month period for that matter) and Dublin missed out in joining Amsterdam by the smallest of margins.

Looking at the new arrivals in to the top 20 I have to say that I completely missed Ibiza's progress during 2016. I believe that the scheduled frequencies (easyJet and Ryanair) were not increased so the rise to 97,000 from 67,000 in 2015 must be down to the charter services. The previous five years had seen Ibiza in the 60,000s each year.

Krakow is due to Ryanair competing with easyJet for the first time of course, and the 112,000 is up from just under 60,000 in 2015. Apart from 90,000 in 2008 Krakow has been in 60,000s and 70,000s each year since then as easyJet had reduced frequency since 2008.

Madrid benefited from increased frequency (daily for much if not all the year) with its 102,000 up from 81,000 in 2015. Madrid has been in the 70,000s and 80,000s since 2008.

Apart from Dalaman (down from 89,000 in 2015 to 66,000 in 2016 and the reasons are well-known) the other two that dropped out from the top 20 (Inverness and Berlin Schoenefeld) didn't fare at all badly in 2016.

Berlin at 82,500 in 2016 was a few hundred down on the 2015 total. It has been in the 70,000s and 80,000s each year since 2008.

Inverness at nearly 88,000 was actually over 5,000 up on 2015. 2016's total was the highest in the years since 2008.

It's good to see so many routes showing substantial increases.

 

[Jerry]

Is there anyway of Cardiff, Exeter and Newquay of knowing or finding out how many passengers originate from there respective areas that fly out of Bristol by route?
So for example if Flybe at CWL wanted to put Geneva all year round would they be able to find out that X amount of passengers from South Wales flew on the BRS route last year?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Is there anyway of Cardiff, Exeter and Newquay of knowing or finding out how many passengers originate from there respective areas that fly out of Bristol by route?
So for example if Flybe at CWL wanted to put Geneva all year round would they be able to find out that X amount of passengers from South Wales flew on the BRS route last year?

No, the information is not publicly available. The CAA publishes surveys but in the case of BRS for example they show the overall number of passengers originating/terminating from Wales, South West, Greater Bristol, etc. They get this from interviews, not from airlines.

The only way what you ask would happen is when the same airline flies a route from BRS that it is looking to start from CWL. Ryanair would have known its passengers' origins (they might not know final destinations) of customers on its TFS and FAO services at BRS when they started these routes from CWL (will soon start in the case of FAO).

 

[Marko1]

Bristol was the fourth fastest growing airport for international passengers in the U.K. according to the CAA. Only Edinburgh , Birmingham and Luton had faster growth.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Bristol was the fourth fastest growing airport for international passengers in the U.K. according to the CAA. Only Edinburgh , Birmingham and Luton had faster growth.

This Edinburgh Airport press release shows the top 17 UK airports for international passenger growth in 2016.

http://www.edinburghairport.com/about-us/media-centre/press-releases/edinburgh-is-fastest-growing-uk-airport-for-international-passengers

 

[TheLocalYokel]

January 2017

At last the CAA has released the BRS figures for January 2017, amongst the last group of airports yet again. The 'league table disappears with the final airports figures being published but it's possible to establish the BRS figures from other tables and do some simple maths.

In January then BRS handled 473,443 terminal passengers an increase of 15.9%. In real terms this accounted for an additional 64,989 passengers over January 2016.

I calculate the rolling 12-month total at the end of January as 7,669,136, up 12.3% on the same period last year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Verona

For some reason the CAA is still omitting Verona from its BRS stats.

It began in 2014 and continued in 2015 with some months showing nil despite flights operating. I've checked again with the CAA final records and the situation has not been resolved for the months in question in those years.

For a number of years there has been a weekly ski flight for tour operators operating from mid December to the latter part of March. In recent winters it's been operated by a Jet2 B 733. There are no flights in April and then from early/mid May two lakes and mountains flights for tour operators operate each week until around the end of September, one by bmi regional E145 and one by Neos B738 - used to be Mistral B734.

A look at the annual total passenger numbers on the Verona route from 2008 until 2015 results as follows: 12,322; 12,664, 13,774, 12,951, 11,916, 12,586, 10,131, 8,376.

It will be seen that the totals don't vary too much until 2014 when the total dropped to 10,131 and 2015 when it had reduced again, this time to 8,376. 2014 and 2015 were the years when the CAA began to miss out some months despite flights being operated.

2016 is so far the worst month by far for CAA omissions as a total of only 4,239 passengers were recorded for the year, as follows:

January: 1225
February: 1072
March: 681
April: nil correct - no flights that month
May: 1261- first month of summer season
June to September inclusive: nil each month despite two flights per week operating
October and November: nil both months which is correct as no flights those months
December: nil despite ski flight commencing in mid month

January 2017: also nil despite weekly ski flight

Yet again I question the value of CAA stats at all if there such obvious flaws.

 

[alphagolf]

Verona

For some reason the CAA is still omitting Verona from its BRS stats.

It began in 2014 and continued in 2015 with some months showing nil despite flights operating. I've checked again with the CAA final records and the situation has not been resolved for the months in question in those years.

For a number of years there has been a weekly ski flight for tour operators operating from mid December to the latter part of March. In recent winters it's been operated by a Jet2 B 733. There are no flights in April and then from early/mid May two lakes and mountains flights for tour operators operate each week until around the end of September, one by bmi regional E145 and one by Neos B738 - used to be Mistral B734.

A look at the annual total passenger numbers on the Verona route from 2008 until 2015 results as follows: 12,322; 12,664, 13,774, 12,951, 11,916, 12,586, 10,131, 8,376.

It will be seen that the totals don't vary too much until 2014 when the total dropped to 10,131 and 2015 when it had reduced again, this time to 8,376. 2014 and 2015 were the years when the CAA began to miss out some months despite flights being operated.

2016 is so far the worst month by far for CAA omissions as a total of only 4,239 passengers were recorded for the year, as follows:

January: 1225
February: 1072
March: 681
April: nil correct - no flights that month
May: 1261- first month of summer season
June to September inclusive: nil each month despite two flights per week operating
October and November: nil both months which is correct as no flights those months
December: nil despite ski flight commencing in mid month

January 2017: also nil despite weekly ski flight

Yet again I question the value of CAA stats at all if there such obvious flaws.

CAA Annual Stats 2016 show 9,593 for Verona.

January 2017, I would suggest the figures in unknown at present are the figures for Verona.

I have been using these throughout 2016 as Verona so not sure why they never seem to be shown on the monthly reports.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Annual Stats 2016 show 9,593 for Verona.

January 2017, I would suggest the figures in unknown at present are the figures for Verona.

I have been using these throughout 2016 as Verona so not sure why they never seem to be shown on the monthly reports.

Many thanks for that. I didn't even bother looking for the CAA annual stats for 2016. They are usually published around this time of the year but as the monthly stats have been delayed every month in 2016 (compared with the previous CAA regime) I didn't expect the CAA annual stats to be published until at least April.

As you point out, adding up the stats that the CAA has published each month still gives 4,239 but their annual total is shown as 9,593 which is obviously much closer to the true passenger numbers. However, either some numbers are still to be counted (perhaps in the 'unknown at present' category, as you suggest) or the route has performed less well than normal. I suspect the former as the 2,110 BRS 'unknown' would be about right if added to the 9,593.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

February 2017

BRS's own stats for the month have been published today. They show that 484,918 passengers were handled during the month, up 11.4% on the airport's own figures for February 2016. As February 2016 was a leap year there is a built-in deficiency of over 3% for February 2017 so these figures are good.

As always the CAA's will be higher and will probably show that around 50,000 more passengers used the airport this February than last.

So the airport is already up around 115,000 passengers over the first two months of 2016 with the rolling 12-month figure in the region of 7,720,000.

At this rate of progress the 8 million mark would be reached around June but it's highly unlikely that it will be then. The difference in numbers of flights this summer compared with summer 2016 seems less than that of the current winter period. I'm not expecting to see double digit percentage rises this summer. I know I always tend to err on the side of caution in such matters but I can't see from where the numbers would come, bearing in mind that the base on which the percentages are established is itself significantly higher than last summer.

It's an excellent start though.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I've just completed a revised BRS Overview thread for 2017. Part of the Overview involves passenger number details on BRS's routes in 2016. I've re-produced that section below.

Amsterdam (Netherlands) 408,570 +6%
Dublin (R of I) 399,094 +6%
Edinburgh (UK) 381,945 +9%
Palma (Balearics) 340,262 +18%
Malaga (Spain) 337,450 +12%
Alicante (Spain) 313,420 +15%

Glasgow (UK) 297,295 +11%
Faro (Portugal) 291,226 +7%
Belfast Int (UK) 249,481 +11%
Geneva (Switzerland) 221,909 +8%

Tenerife South (Canaries) 199,655 +16%
Newcastle (UK) 164,595 -3%
Lanzarote (Canaries) 158,138 +16%
Barcelona (Spain) 151,358 +15%
Paris Cdg (France) 138,949 +5%
Krakow (Poland) 112,119 +87% Ryanair joined easyJet on the route
Rome Fiumicino (Italy) 108,715 +23% Fiumicino closed for a while in 2015 so flights went to Ciampino, hence the large percentage rise in 2016 at Fiumicino
Toulouse (France) 108,424 -2%
Madrid (Spain) 102,379 +26%

Ibiza (Balearics) 97,088 +44%
Inverness (Scotland) 87,714 +6%
Las Palmas (Canaries) 85,382 +24%
Nice (France) 83,467 +15%
Berlin Schoenfeld (Germany) 82,579 -1%
Fuerteventura (Canaries) 74,891 +5%
Murcia (Spain) 72,771 +7%
Prague (Czech Republic) 68,100 +4%
Dalaman (Turkey) 66,407 -26%
Lisbon (Portugal) 65,536 +5%
Paphos (Cyprus) 61,517 +10%

Girona (Spain) 59,769 +1%
Warsaw Modlin (Poland) 59,307 +6%
Mahon (Balearics) 58,076 +3%
Malta 57,726 +1%
Budapest (Hungary) 56,541 -1%
Brussels (Belgium) 56,447 unchanged
Venice (Italy) 56,196 new route by easyJet from March, joined by Ryanair in September who moved from Treviso
Corfu (Greek Islands) 55,874 +21%
Zakinthos (Greek Islands) 52,080 unchanged

Keflavik (Iceland) 49,324 +32% WOW joined easyJet on the route
Heraklion (Crete) 48,581 +13%
Basel (Switzerland) 48,027 +720% first full calendar year of route
Porto (Portugal) 44,541 +48%
Pisa (Italy) 43,704 +1%
Frankfurt (Germany) 43,344 -2%
Wroclaw (Poland) 43,137 +13%
Katowice (Poland) 42,789 +178% first full calendar year of route
Larnaca (Cyprus) 41,821 +62%
Gibraltar 41,607 +45%
Milan Bergamo (Italy) 40,479 +22%
Cork (R of I) 41,039 -1%

Gdansk (Poland) 39,397 +4%
Bordeaux (France) 38,361 +9%
Kaunas (Lithuania) 37,947 +3%
Rzeszow (Poland) 37,904 +33%
Poznan (Poland) 37,686 +7%
Funchal (Madeira) 37,214 +3%
Munich (Germany) 36,372 +19%
Beziers (France) 35,660 -9%
Sofia (Bulgaria) 35,439 + 775% Wizz Air came onto what was previously a ski charter route (which remained)
Naples (Italy) 35,349 +1%
Marrakech (Morocco) 32,601 +6%
Copenhagen (Denmark) 31,156 -21%
Jersey (Channel Islands) 30,380 -9%

Kosice (Slovakia) 29,766 +381% first full calendar year of route
Vienna (Austria) 29,214 +766% first full calendar year of route
Knock (R of I) 29,187 +4%
Rhodes (Greek Islands) 28,717 +54%
Antalya (Turkey) 28,598 -36%
Bodrum (Turkey) 27,630 -15%
Guernsey (Channel Islands) 26,677 +10%
Ronaldsway (Isle of Man) 24,663 +5%
Treviso (Italy) 24,506 +7% route switched by Ryanair to Venice MP in September
Chania (Crete) 23,987 +8%
Limoges (France) 23,346 +9%
Reus (Spain) 22,966 +103%
Dubrovnik (Croatia) 22,942 +153%
Sal (Cape Verde) 21,971 +638% first full calendar year of route
Aberdeen (UK) 21,589 -18%
Warsaw Chopin (Poland) 20,217 new route
Kos (Greek Islands) 20,121 +2%

Innsbruck (Austria) 19,996 +4%
Bologna (Italy) 19,847 +1%
Castellon (Spain) 19,102 +346% first full calendar year of route
Split (Croatia) 18,474 +9%
Kefalonia (Greek Islands) 16,329 +82%
Dusseldorf (Germany) 14,741 +76%
Bilbao (Spain) 14,450 unchanged
Bergerac (France) 14,162 -43%
Hamburg (Germany) 13,707 -15%
Marseille (France) 13,513 +26%
Burgas (Bulgaria) 13,155 -33%
Nantes (France) 12,667 +1397% easyJet replaced bmi regional on the route
Salzburg (Austria) 12,542 +28%
Chambery (France) 12,112 unchanged
Catania (Italy) 11,079 -9%

Grenoble (France) 9,686 +7%
Verona (Italy) 9,593 +15%
Santorini (Greek Islands) 9,218 +33%
Olbia (Sardinia) 9,182 -20%
Kittila (Finland) 8,701 +83% Santa Christmas route and ski holiday route
La Rochelle (France) 8,522 +12%
Skiathos (Greek Islands) 8,020 +7%
Pula (Croatia) 6,985 +2%
Turin (Italy) 6,368 +41%
Milan Malpensa (Italy) 6,211 -19%
Salonika (Greece) 6,187 -1%
Lyon (France) 5,564 +1%
Bucharest (Romania) 3,601 new route
Hawarden (UK) 2,340 -51%
Enontekio (Finland) 1,461 -16% Santa Christmas route
Bastia (Corsica) 1,291 +8%
Ivalo (Finland) 1,097 -21% Santa Christmas route

Total Routes In 2016 - 113

In addition there were one-off charters/other ad hoc passenger flights to Belgium (Antwerp); France (Pau, Tarbes-Lourdes, Toulon); Germany (Cologne Bonn, Hannover); Norway (Bergen, Tromsoe); Sweden (Kiruna); UK (Gatwick, Cardiff, East Midlands, Liverpool, Manchester, Norwich, Southampton) that carried a total of 4,188 passengers.

The CAA also recorded 2,110 passengers as 'unknown' (in terms of routes at BRS).

 

[Red Flyer]

BRS on the ball again this month. March figures already published on their website. Total of 566045 which is an increase of 58562 on last year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BRS on the ball again this month. March figures already published on their website. Total of 566045 which is an increase of 58562 on last year.

A rise of 11.54%. Easter fell during the latter part of March last year so this is particularly encouraging.

The CAA is yet to publish February figures for any airport, let alone March. Given that the CAA always shows a few thousand per month more than BRS's own figures (for reasons discussed many times in this thread) the rolling 12-month CAA figure at the end of March would be in the region of 7.780 million.