CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Jerry]

My mistake I thought they did Orlando last year and the year before. Must have got them mixed up with TCX.
New routes for winter 2017 could be interesting as I can't see FR continuing FAO in the winter and with Rome I wonder where Flybe will have the time! The Flybe winter schedule will be rammed!
I would love to see VY introduce a new route or at least extend BCN throughout the winter and maybe Flybe try and fit in Prague somewhere!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats January 2017

CAA showed 59,543 for CWL in January 2016 so 10% would take the 2017 figure to over 65,000

CAA stats now published for January 2017 showing 65,590 passengers in the month, up 10.5% on January 2016. Atms were up 18.9%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,350,526, up 14.9% on a year ago.

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats for Cardiff for January 2017 and percentages up and down compared with 2016

London City 1814
Anglesey 762 +54%
Edinburgh 6683 +17%
Glasgow 2275 +39%
Jersey 732 +33%
Newcastle 939 +15%
Chambery 414 -46%
Paris CDG 3811 +3%
Berlin TXL 594
Munich 720 -22%
Cork 811 +185%
Dublin 6094 -23%
Milan 1580 +33%
Amsterdam 8843 -11%
Faro 858 +40%
Alicante 6406 +10%
Malaga 3673 -14%
Arrecife 2990 -4%
Fuerteventura 183
Las Palmas 1175 -29%
Tenerife South 7151 +62%
Geneva 956 +2%
Dubai DWC 558
Bridgetown 1446 +153%

 

[TheLocalYokel]

http://www.edinburghairport.com/abo...owing-uk-airport-for-international-passengers

CWL was the sixth fastest growing UK airport for international passengers in 2016 after Edinburgh, Luton, Birmingham, Bristol and Manchester - measured in percentage terms.

 

[Jerry]

Does anyone know if the airport has released any figures for February? I can't seem to find a press release and I'm pretty sure they've usually released one by now?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I don't think they have, neither has the CAA released any February stats yet.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I've just completed a revised CWL Overview thread for 2017. Part of the Overview involves passenger number details on CWL's routes in 2016. I've re-produced that section below.

Amsterdam (Netherlands) 135,032 +5%
Dublin (R of I) 110,320 -8%
Palma (Balearics) 109,024 +39%
Edinburgh (UK) 94,288 +36% first full year of 2 x E195 Flybe base
Alicante (Spain) 93,424 +20%
Malaga (Spain) 82,596 +22%
Tenerife (Canaries) 78,587 +29%

Paris Cdg (France) 54,104 +78% first full year of 2 x E195 Flybe base
Arrecife (Canaries) 44,412 +12%
Belfast City (UK) 43,676 +4%
Glasgow (UK) 37,714 +108% first full year of 2 x E195 Flybe base
Faro (Portugal) 37,614 +69% first full year of 2 x E195 Flybe base
Ibiza (Balearics) 34,974 +11%
Barcelona (Spain) 30,690 +55%

Milan Malpensa (Italy) 25,603 +241% first full year of 2 x E195 Flybe base
Zakynthos (Greek Islands) 21,358 unchanged
Mahon (Balearics) 21,080 +40%
Dalaman (Turkey) 20,869 -36%

Las Palmas (Canaries) 19,070 +4%
Munich (Germany)18,674 +148% first full year of 2 x E195 Flybe base
Larnaca (Cyprus) 17,985 +1%
Burgas (Bulgaria) 18,199 +41%
Rhodes (Greek Islands) 16,731 +4%
Jersey (Channel Islands) 16,630 +76% first full year of 2 x E195 Flybe base
Reus (Spain) 16,389 -22%
Paphos (Cyprus) 14,335 +4%
Newcastle (UK) 13,664 +10%
London City (UK) 12,425 new route
Cork (Ireland) 11,622 +112% first full year of 2 x E195 Flybe base

Corfu (Greek Islands) 9,577 unchanged
Heraklion (Crete) 9,259 +2%
Anglesey (UK) 9,187 -15%
Kos (Greek Islands) 8,551 +5%
Kefalonia (Greek Islands) 7,474 -2%
Malta 6,942 -3%
Aberdeen (UK) 5,601 -47%
Verona (Italy) 3,771 +948% Flybe scheduled route commenced, previous year saw only adhoc charters
Dusseldorf (Germany) 3,663 -41%
Geneva (Switzerland) 3,441 +65% increased Fybe frequency over 2015
Berlin Texel (Germany) 3,110 new route
Bridgetown (Barbados) 2,903 +40% cruise flights
Chambery (France) 2,485 +1136% increased Fybe frequency over 2015
Montego Bay (Jamaica) 1,768 +72% cruise flights
Fuerteventura (Canaries) 1,483 -18%
Orlando (USA) 617 +11% very short season
Enontekio (Finland) 378 +12% Santa Christmas route
Ivalo (Finland) 358 new Santa Christmas route

In addition there were one-off charters/other ad hoc passenger flights (often rugby or football related) amounting to a total of 18,489 passengers to:
Austria Vienna Belgium Brussels, Ostend Czech Republic Prague Denmark Copenhagen France Bordeaux, Brive, Clermont-Ferrand, Dinard, Grenoble, Lille, Lyon, Marseille, Nantes, Le Bourget, Orly, Pau, Rennes, Tarbes-Lourdes, Toulon, Toulouse Ireland Shannon Italy Genoa, Olbia, Parma, Venice Lebanon Beirut Mexico Cancun Moldova Chisinau Poland Gdansk, Krakow Slovakia Bratislava Sweden Pajala Yllas, Stockholm Ukraine Kiev UK Gatwick, Luton, Southend, Belfast International, Bournemouth, Blackpool, Bristol, Doncaster-Sheffield, Durham Tees Valley, East Midlands, Farnborough, Humberside, Inverness, Isle of Man, Leeds-Bradford,Liverpool, Manchester, Norwich, Southampton USA Fort Lauderdale

 

[Jerry]

CAA stats for February are out.
71,299 passenger's passed through the airport in February down by 3583 from 74,882 (-5%) from February 2016.
Looks like the difference was the French rugby fans in 2016.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats for February are out.
71,299 passenger's passed through the airport in February down by 3583 from 74,882 (-5%) from February 2016.
Looks like the difference was the French rugby fans in 2016.

Around 3% of the drop will be down to 2016 being a leap year and, as you say, there were around 9,000 French route passengers in February 2016 compared with just over 4,700 in February 2017. If you add in the 1892 on the LCY route that didn't operate in February 2016 the gap is more or less the missing 3,300 odd passengers this February.

I'm still a bit surprised though. Many of the top 20 airports saw double digit percentage rises in February 2017 despite the leap year in 2016.

The CAA seems not to have produced any tables for February 2017 that show 12-month rolling totals. Based on the CAA rolling total for January the 12-months to the end of February saw 1,347,175 passengers pass through the terminal, an increase of 11.7% on the same period last year.

 

[Jerry]

The CAA seems not to have produced any tables for February 2017 that show 12-month rolling totals. Based on the CAA rolling total for January the 12-months to the end of February saw 1,347,175 passengers pass through the terminal, an increase of 11.7% on the same period last year.

I'm still surprised the airport didn't release any figures themselves as there has still been growth. Having had a quick look at some of the routes most seem to have performed ok for February. The ones that seem to have struggled the most though are TXL, MUC, FAO and LCY and I think AMS might be down from last year as well.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Back to one of my favourite aviation subjects - spin by airports and airlines - yes, they could have been restrictive in their release and concentrated on the 12-months figure which is still up nearly 12% on a year ago.

In October 2016 when the passenger figures had dropped by 13% against October 2015 (caused by the huge Rugby World Cup passenger numbers in October 2015) the airport did spin a press release which concentrated on the 12-month period which was still well up on the previous year.

I'm expecting noticeable growth for the rest of the year, although not to the degree of the past 18 months that have seen over 300,000 additional passengers passing through the airport.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I noted that in another aviation message board someone, when explaining the fall in passengers numbers at CWL in February, attributed part of the blame to diversions.

Diversions from CWL to other airports would still be counted as CWL passengers in CAA stats. The CAA has long carried this note at the foot of its relevant tables:

In order to preserve market analysis all identifiable diversions are reallocated to the point of intended operation.

 

[Jerry]

There were a few diversions but i think there was some cancellations on some routes as well. Mostly LCY.

 

[Jerry]

CAA figures for March 2017
86,897 passengers passed through the terminal which saw a 11.1% increase on March 2016.
The rolling year is 1,355,843 up 10.8% on last year.

 

[Jerry]

CAA has finally posted the figures for April!
The airport saw 95,780 passengers up 19% from 80,562 in 2016. The rolling year was 1,371,273 up 10% from the year before.

 

[superking]

jerry. any idea why yr postings come out twice.

 

[Jerry]

The stats by route.
Edinburgh 8263 +12%
Glasgow 2096 -37%
Jersey 1569 +10%
Newcastle 1038 -11%
Aberdeen 681
Anglesey 845 +9%
London City 1633
Paphos +1%
Paris CDG 5345 +42%
Tarbes-Lourdes 445 +53%
Berlin 1620
Dusseldorf 317 -13%
Munich 1554 +25%
Cork 1162 +23%
Dublin 7671 -10%
Milan 2303 +33%
Rome FCO 1640
Verona 468 +559%
Amsterdam 11,582
Faro 5197 +100%
Alicante 10,043 +34%
Barcelona 2443 -17%
Madrid 952
Malaga 6558 -7%
Palma de Mallorca 3292 -7%
Arrecife 3326 +16%
Las Palmas 1851 +1%
Tenerife South 5730 +23%
Geneva 440 +77%
Orlando 320

 

[Jerry]

jerry. any idea why yr postings come out twice.

No idea! It does it sometimes! Lol

 

[Jerry]

I've been looking at the rolling year increases for the last couple of months. If the airport continues to grow at an average of 10% a month then (the growth has been 14.9, 11.7, 10.8 and 10%) then the rolling year figures could look something like this over the next couple of months.
May 1,406,900
June 1,432,841
July 1,459,615
August 1,482,131
September 1,487,249
October 1,464,666
This is only my personal prediction based on a possible average but even if the airport's growth is a little slower it should break the 1.4 million barrier but will probably have to wait for the 1.5 million barrier till 2018.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I've been looking at the rolling year increases for the last couple of months. If the airport continues to grow at an average of 10% a month then (the growth has been 14.9, 11.7, 10.8 and 10%) then the rolling year figures could look something like this over the next couple of months.
May 1,406,900
June 1,432,841
July 1,459,615
August 1,482,131
September 1,487,249
October 1,464,666
This is only my personal prediction based on a possible average but even if the airport's growth is a little slower it should break the 1.4 million barrier but will probably have to wait for the 1.5 million barrier till 2018.

To reach 1.5 mppa by the end of this calendar year the airport will need to increase its passenger numbers by 11.6% (156,000 additional passengers) over 2016.

A 10% rise by the end of this year would see around 1.48 mppa for 2017.

Short of something unforeseen occurring, the annual total for 2017 seems certain to be above 1.45 million, probably substantially so (the football will give a significant boost to this year's figures). 1.45 million would give a rise of around 42% over the previous three years (1.02 million in 2014), so anything above that gets closer to a 50% rise in three years.

This is a hugely impressive percentage gain in such a time period, although a previous CWL CEO did point out that early growth going forward from the airport's nadir would involve harvesting the low-hanging apples. Nevertheless, the old saying that success breeds success still usually holds good and there are a lot of apples still to be harvested from the lower parts of the tree. A further three-year 50% rise from 2018 would take the airport to around 2.2 million by the end of 2020.

I would have thought that is well within the bounds of possibility, even probability.