Manchester CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Land23R]

A few more long haul figures for April:

CX: 10,350 pax / + 8% / Ave Load 304 / LF 89.5%

HU: 6,750 pax / --- / Ave Load 199 / LF 68% based on A333, but not all were I assume.

EK: 84,191 pax / +7% / Ave Load 468 / LF 85% based on 1 x 2 class and 2 x 3 class daily.

EY: 39,459 pax / +5% / Ave Load 329 / LF depends on a/c mix on afternoon flight.

QR: 30,335 pax / +6% / Ave Load 220 / LF 87% based on 254 seat B788.

SV: 10,078 pax / +21% / Ave Load 229 / LF 77% based on 298 seat B789

 

[Land23R]

I can only calculate certain figures for US routes in April as I don't know the number of TCX flights or a/c type in some cases, but here's what I've come up with:

ORD: 7,871 pax / '+18% / Ave Load 157 / LF 76% based on all B767 and 50 sectors (5 days cancelled?)

PHL: 11,253 pax / '+18% / Ave Load 192 / LF 77% based on 60 sectors

EWR: 7,672 pax / '+3% / Ave Load 132 / LF 78% based on 58 sectors

ATL: 13,164 pax / '-2% / Ave Load 227 / LF 80% based on 42 sectors by VS and 18 by DL (291 seats)

IAH: 5,260 pax / ---- / Ave Load 120 / ? based on 44 sectors

SFO: 4,288 pax / ----- / Ave Load 165 / LF 62% based on 26 sectors *

BOS: 2,833 pax / ----- / Ave Load 157 / LF 59% based on 18 sectors

Of the others:

JFK: 29,201 pax / '+17%

LAS: 20,091 pax / '+51%

MCO: 52,266 pax / '+11%

* David, I've assumed for SFO there was an arrival on Sat. 1st April making up for only a departure on Sun. 30 April.
Not sure if that's right.

 

[User001]

ORD, I think there were 5 days cancelled, and one day where the outbound didn't run.

 

[ethanegcc]

My summary:

CX: 10,350 pax / + 8% / Ave Load 304 / LF 89.5%

Amazing, as usual, for Cathay Pacific. I am sure 5x weekly A350 will be extremely well loaded.

EK: 84,191 pax / +7% / Ave Load 468 / LF 85% based on 1 x 2 class and 2 x 3 class daily.

EY: 39,459 pax / +5% / Ave Load 329 / LF depends on a/c mix on afternoon flight.

QR: 30,335 pax / +6% / Ave Load 220 / LF 87% based on 254 seat B788.

All positive, although this is no surprise.

SV: 10,078 pax / +21% / Ave Load 229 / LF 77% based on 298 seat B789

This is a real positive. After some low load factors for the lower seasons, this is great. Coupled with (what we assume) are high business class load factors, we can see why SV are so loyal to MAN.

ORD: 7,871 pax / '+18% / Ave Load 151 / LF 73% based on all B767 and 56 sectors (4 days cancelled?)

PHL: 11,253 pax / '+18% / Ave Load 192 / LF 77% based on 60 sectors

EWR: 7,672 pax / '+3% / Ave Load 132 / LF 78% based on 58 sectors

These are all relatively similar; if this is what the loads are going to look like after 'Brexit' and 'Trump Slump' uncertainty, I'll take it!

ATL: 13,164 pax / '-2% / Ave Load 227 / LF 80% based on 42 sectors by VS and 18 by DL (291 seats)

Really impressed with this one. I know April had the Easter holidays, with many holidaying to Florida etc., but with DL operating the 777-200LR and some weeks having 8 flights, this is superb. It again leaves me speechless, as to how Virgin are going to decrease this to 3x weekly for the winter season.

SFO: 4,288 pax / ----- / Ave Load 165 / LF 62% based on 26 sectors BOS: 2,833 pax / ----- / Ave Load 157 / LF 59% based on 18 sectors

Not great, but I would say a decent start for these two routes. Neither SFO or BOS are in high season in April and we will wait to see what they look like for May and the end of summer.

JFK: 29,201 pax / '+17%

LAS: 20,091 pax / '+51%

MCO: 52,266 pax / '+11%

Nice to see growth on existing routes also.

Casablanca also seems a decent start, although I suspect this will grow as the route matures.

Overall, a decent batch of April statistics, with new US routes bedding in under uncertainty, I think we've done pretty well.

 

[User001]

Casablanca also seems a decent start, but nothing amazing, although I suspect this will grow as the route matures.

I actually think for what is essentially a niche route, the figures are amazing.

Put it this way, the B737-700 operated a fair few flights, and that holds 114 passengers (12/102). That means at 113 average, if the B737-700 operated all flights, it would have been an 99% load factor.

The B737-800 holds 159 (12/147), so, 113 is still 71% load factor on a brand new niche route.

Given the B737-700/800 mix that operated in April, I would hazard a guess that the true load factor is about 86-90%. Don't see how that isn't anything but amazing.

 

[Land23R]

ORD, I think there were 5 days cancelled, and one day where the outbound didn't run.

Having rechecked the TAS listing I think you are right about 5 cancelled. (Thought I'd read 4 on pprune but probably wrong). Not sure about an extra outbound sector cancelled but I've amended the ORD to 50 sectors which puts the A/L up to 157 and the LF to 76% based on all B767s. which puts it even closer to PHL and EWR.
(Not sure why I typed 56 sectors originally as I'd calculated it on 52!).

On ATL, it wasn't clear from the listing I saw whether there were 2 flights on certain days being the overlap when DL operated on some weekends. However, there may have been the odd VS cancellation so for this estimation I used a full complement of 60 sectors.

 

[User001]

I think the cancelled outbound one was down to a tech issue, there was actually a B747 freighter (CargoLux) to do the engine swap.

The flight came in from JFK, and was due to go back to ORD but went tech. The ORD came in and went back to JFK IIRC.

 

[Aceshigh]

I think SFO / BOS are reasonable given they coming from a standing start and based on the competition available which appears not to have suffered that badly !

 

[ethanegcc]

I actually think for what is essentially a niche route, the figures are amazing.

Put it this way, the B737-700 operated a fair few flights, and that holds 114 passengers (12/102). That means at 113 average, if the B737-700 operated all flights, it would have been an 99% load factor.

The B737-800 holds 159 (12/147), so, 113 is still 71% load factor on a brand new niche route.

Given the B737-700/800 mix that operated in April, I would hazard a guess that the true load factor is about 86-90%. Don't see how that isn't anything but amazing.

Well, as I said, it was a good, solid start for a great route! I didn't know the capacity of RAM's aircraft, but I know they have a proper business class cabin, so I did underestimate it's performance. I know you and I love niche routes!

 

[David_itl]

12% May increase https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.ma...anchester-airport-busiest-may-record-13172366

 

[EGCC_MAN]

That is fantastic news, as the May stats set the trend for the Summer period through to the end of October. Gives confidence for a very positive season ahead.

 

[Land23R]

Yes, excellent news and I must admit it's come as a very pleasant surprise. I was expecting May increase to be in single figures.

 

[Aceshigh]

And secures 3rd position 2017 ?

STN growth was 7%.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics

Monthly passengers - 2,245,008
Annual Total - 4,160,183
Moving Annual Total - 26,468,919

Manchester Statistics - April 2017 (Part 2)

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers

AMSTERDAM..................................... 90,991
DUBAI................................................ 84,191
DUBLIN.............................................. 83,777
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 80,329
ALICANTE........................................... 76,599
MALAGA............................................ 66,453
HEATHROW....................................... 56,273
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............ 54,912
ORLANDO.......................................... 52,266
PALMA............................................... 50,951
FARO.................................................. 45,763
ARRICIFE............................................ 41,765
BARCELONA....................................... 41,325
ABU DHABI........................................ 39,459
FRANKFURT....................................... 33,178
DOHA................................................. 30,335
MUNICH............................................. 30,180
COPENHAGEN.................................... 29,812
PAPHOS.............................................. 29,764
NEW YORK JFK................................... 29,201
HAMBURG......................................... 29,122
GENEVA............................................. 28,958
BERLIN (SCHONEFELD)....................... 27,166
LAS PALMAS....................................... 25,595
FUERTAVENTURA............................... 24,795

CAA statistics for April are provisional.


Manchester Statistics - April 2017 (Part 3)

Top 25 destinations with highest percentage increase.

Destination......................................Total Pax....Schedule Pax....Charter Pax....Percentage change
NUREMBERG.................................. 9,542................ 9,542........................ 0.................... 954100
MAHON.......................................... 3,015................ 3,015........................ 0.................... 1937.16
TOULOUSE...................................... 4,593................ 4,061.................... 532.................... 1175.83
DUBROVNIK.................................... 4,539................ 4,539........................ 0.................... 1143.56
LIEIDA................................................ 599....................... 0.................... 599..................... 187.981
NAPLES......................................... 12,136................. 9,481................ 2,655..................... 182.036
KRAKOW....................................... 13,214............... 13,214....................... 0..................... 170.945
HAMBURG.................................... 29,122............... 29,122....................... 0..................... 156.333
THIRA............................................. 1,028.................. 1,028....................... 0..................... 154.455
TURIN............................................. 3,470.................. 2,918................... 522..................... 139.476
LYON............................................... 5,621.................. 5,621...................... 0..................... 125.381
BERLIN (SCHONEFELD)................. 27,166................ 27,166....................... 0..................... 120.826
SANTA CRUZ DE LA PALMA............ 2,954......................... 0................ 2,954..................... 113.594
GIBRALTAR................................... 10,110................ 10,110....................... 0..................... 104.201
HOGUIN.......................................... 5,010................. 5,010....................... 0...................... 98.8884
CATANIA......................................... 5,222................. 4,566................... 656...................... 96.908
BRUSSELS..................................... 20,514............... 19,022................. 1,492..................... 87.4452
BOA VISTA...................................... 5,374................ 5,374......................... 0..................... 67.258
LARNACA...................................... 11,594................ 8,515.................. 3,079..................... 66,4609
BRIDGETOWN................................ 7,990................. 3,866................. 4,124...................... 59,9279
FUNCHAL...................................... 10,231................ 7,565................. 2,666....................... 59,2621
KEFLAVIK...................................... 14,710............... 14,710........................ 0...................... 57,9173
GRENOBLE..................................... 5,093................. 4,462..................... 631...................... 57,5804
ROME (FIUMICINO)....................... 9,803................. 9,803......................... 0...................... 56.4974
SALZBURG...................................... 1,290................ 1,290......................... 0....................... 52.3022

CAA statistics for April are provisional.

Manchester Statistics - April 2017 (Part 4)

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.

Foreign_airport……..Total_Pax 2016……..Total Pax 2017……% change
VIENNA……………………. 8,346……….…………….. 9,669……………….. +15.852
BRUSSELS………………. 10,944……………………. 20,514……………….. +87.445
BEIJING………………………….. 0………………….…… 6,750.………………. +100
PRAGUE…………………. 10,860……………………. 15,102…….…………. +39.061
COPENHAGEN……….. 29,854……………………. 29,812………………… -0.141
HELSINKI………………….. 8,887…………….……….. 9,655…………………+8.6418
PARIS (CDG)……………. 43,662……………………. 54,912…………….... +25.766
DUSSELDORF………….. 15,887………..…………. 20,794……………….. +30.887
FRANKFURT MAIN….. 34,899……………………. 33,178….……………. -4.931
MUNICH…………………. 29,395..…………………. 30,180…………………. +2.6705
HONG KONG…………….. 9,551….………………… 10,350……….……….. +8.3656
KEFLAVIK………………….. 9,315……………………. 14,710………………… +57.917
DUBLIN…………………… 81,844……………………. 83,777………….…….. +2.3618
MILAN (MALPENSA).. 10,920……………………..16,403………………… +50.211
ROME (FIUMICINO)…. 6,264..…………………….. 9,803………………… +54.497
AMSTERDAM…………. 94,057…………………….. 90,991.…………….... -3.26
ISLAMABAD……………. 24,145..…………………… 17,459……………….. -27.69
LISBON…………………… 14,013……………………… 17,810………..…….. +27.096
DOHA……………………… 28,623…………………….. 30,335………………… +5.9812
JEDDAH……………………. 8,329……………………… 10,078………………… +20.999
SINGAPORE……………… 8,193……………………….. 7,688…………………. -6.164
MADRID…………………. 15,571…………………….. 14,415………………….. -7.424
STOCKHOLM (ARN)… 12,850…………………….. 16,553………………….. +28.817
GENEVA…………………. 20,240…………………….. 28,958….………......... +43.073
ZURICH……………………. 9,856……………………… 11,040………………….. +12.013
ABU DHABI……………. 37,633……………….…….. 39,459…..……………… +4.8521
DUBAI……………………. 78,710.…………………….. 84,191………………….. +6.9635
ATLANTA……………….. 13,489…….……………….. 13,164………………….. -2.409
CHICAGO…..…………….. 6,650.………………………. 7,871…………………… +18.361
HOUSTON………………………… 0………………………. 5,260…………………… +0.00
NEW YORK (JFK)……… 24,862……………………… 29,201……………..……. +17.452
NEW YORK (NEWARK). 7,423………………………. 7,672……………………. +3.3544
PHILADELPHIA……………9,788……………………… 11,523…………..………. +17.726
HEATHROW…………….. 59,396……………………. 56,273…………………….. -5.258

CAA statistics for April are provisional.


Manchester Statistics - April 2017 (Part 5)

Comparison of top 25 destinations - April 2007 versus April 2017

Foreign airport.............................Apr-07...............Apr-17
HEATHROW....................................... 84,603.................. 56,273
DUBLIN.............................................. 62,515.................. 83,777
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)............. 58,750.................. 80,329
MALAGA............................................ 55,750.................. 66,453
ALICANTE........................................... 53,446.................. 76,599
AMSTERDAM..................................... 50,753.................. 90,991
PALMA............................................... 44,900.................. 50,951
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)............. 40,999.................. 54,912
DUBAI................................................ 39,712.................. 84,191
FARO.................................................. 38,976.................. 45,763
GATWICK........................................... 35,794....................... 455
PAPHOS............................................. 34,477.................. 29,764
ARRECIFE........................................... 31,381.................. 41,765
ORLANDO.......................................... 30,150.................. 52,266
FRANKFURT....................................... 28,079.................. 33,178
SANDFORD........................................ 27,927..................... 4,793
SHARM EL SHEIKH............................. 23,740........................... 0
CHICAGO (O'HARE)............................ 22,928.................... 7,871
BELFAST CITY..................................... 21,220.................. 24,531
LAS PALMAS...................................... 19,674................... 25,595
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL................. 19,120................... 24,131
EDINBURGH....................................... 18,703................... 10,181
NEW YORK (NEWARK)....................... 18,467..................... 7,672
PRAGUE............................................. 17,163................... 15,102
ROME (FIUMICINO)........................... 16,717..................... 9,803

CAA are statistics for April are provisional.

Edited to reflect inclusion of Belfast City and Inverness passenger numbers

 

[David_itl]

Thanks for the breakdown, SD. Interesting to see the hub flows to see what impact the new services have. Wonder which ones the Beijing service is affecting.

 

[Aceshigh]

Thanks Scottie, do we have Boston as well ?

 

[Dobbo]

Re: VS decrease of MAN - ATL over the winter, I can only assume forward bookings are feeling the pinch from SQ's flight to IAH.

The PAX numbers in this service have almost doubled in the space of 4/5 months, and the flight will continue at a minimum 5x weekly this winter. As SQ continue to add passengers to both SIN and IAH, there must be the prospect of one or more of a capacity increase via added frequency or possibly larger aircraft. This has been one of the success stories but VS appear to be paying part of the price for it.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Thanks Scottie, do we have Boston as well ?

Boston unfortunately did not fall into any of my previous categories however there were 2,833 passengers in April 2017. There is no comparative figure for 2016 as the service did not really start until June 2016.

 

[Dobbo]

Top foreign gateways for US destined traffic 2016, YoY change

1. LHR - 14,346,939 (-2%)
2. CUN - 8,443,264 +4%
3. NRT - 7,822,087 +/-00
4. MEX - 7,327,598 +9%
5. CDG - 6,593,563 +/-00
6. ICN - 5,769,652 +5%
7. AMS - 4,879,102 +/-00
8. PEK - 3,327,654 +10%
9. GDL - 3,326,419 +12%
10. DXB - 3,221,148 +5%

----------------------------

Does anyone know how far off DXB MAN is likely to be? I suspect a reasonable distance but it would be interesting to know.

 

[David_itl]

This covers all routes by all carriers... not broken it down to charter/scheduled/biz jet