CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

I wonder how the airport could boost numbers during the winter . It is a significant drop compared to the summer. When we passed through in November it was very quiet .

I think this is a general problem, at least at most regional airports. Obviously, there isn't the amount of leisure traffic in particular during the winter, apart from Christmas/New Year and at half-terms.

When easyJet started at BRS they operated a number of routes at more or less the same frequency year-round as they did then from most, probably all their bases. Over the years the loss-making in winter became unsustainable and easyJet (and other lo-cos) cut back their winter offering to more realistic proportions.

I'm looking at the BRS timetable for winter 03/04 and this is a flavour of the winter programme from easyJet.

Alicante 13 x weekly (now 5 x weekly in January rising to 8 x weekly later in February)
Bilbao daily (now 2 x weekly in winter)
Copenhagen daily (now 2 x weekly in winter)
Malaga 13 x weekly (now 4 x weekly in January rising to 8 x weekly later in February)
Nice daily (now only operates part winter at 2 x weekly from February)

The likes of Prague and Venice also operated daily throughout the winter.

The current policy means of course that a lot of the easyJet fleet is not used to its full capacity every day. When I passed the airport today around 1400 hours there were 15-20 aircraft on stand - some were on turn-around but a number were parked up, either for the whole day or part of it. A casual passerby would look and think this is quite a busy little airport, whereas in peak summer the same passerby would on occasion see nothing or just one or two aircraft on stand, because everything else was away earning their keep, and believe that the airport saw very few flights.

 

[Jerry]

The airport would have to target the winter holiday routes more. More frequencies to places like Sal maybe and have the likes of Boa Vista as winter only. I'm still surprised TUI doesn't have a winter long haul programme at BRS. Could a focus more on business routes as well possibly help?

 

[Jerry]

Here's a little stat. Bristol Airport is the 61st busiest airport in Europe according to wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_busiest_airports_in_Europe#2017_statistics_(provisional)

 

[Marko1]

I am a little surprised that Thomas cook hasn't increased its winter 18/19 programme to maybe two based aircraft and adding routes like Cape Verde and Gambia to the schedule.

 

[Jerry]

I am a little surprised that Thomas cook hasn't increased its winter 18/19 programme to maybe two based aircraft and adding routes like Cape Verde and Gambia to the schedule.

Does the A321 have the range for Gambia from Bristol?

 

[alphagolf]

Does the A321 have the range for Gambia from Bristol?

In terms of distance its approx 40miles less than Sal in Cape Verde with an approx flying time of 5hrs 20mins, could an A321 complete that I don't know, I am sure someone on here will be able to give us that info.

 

[Marko1]

I admit I'm no expert in the technical bit so I would defer to others on that. However Banjul was served for many years by the likes of Astraeus and air 2000 often twice a week during the winter season .

 

[alphagolf]

I admit I'm no expert in the technical bit so I would defer to others on that. However Banjul was served for many years by the likes of Astraeus and air 2000 often twice a week during the winter season .

TCX use a A321 from LGW to BJL so maybe its possible

 

[TheLocalYokel]

December 2017

BRS has published its own figures for December which show that 509,834 passengers used the terminal, an increase of 1.71% on December 2016. BRS figures show that a total of 8,136,738 passengers used the airport in 2017, an increase of 8.03% on 2016.

Given that on 22 December, because of the blocked runway, the majority of flights that day were either cancelled or diverted at least 8,000-10,000 passengers were lost either through not travelling at all or finding flights at other airports. Had the incident not occurred on the 22 December it's likely the percentage increase would have been similar to November's 3.5% gain.

When the CAA stats* are published an increase in the region of 1.71% would give 516,266 passengers in December with a total close to 8,233,000 for the calendar year 2017.

* For those who might not be aware the CAA stats are always higher than the BRS stats because the latter does not count every type of passenger, including those under 2, but the CAA does, so to maintain a comparison with other airports it's necessary to rely on the CAA stats.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

December 2017
When the CAA stats* are published an increase in the region of 1.71% would give 516,266 passengers in December with a total close to 8,233,000 for the calendar year 2017.

* For those who might not be aware the CAA stats are always higher than the BRS stats because the latter does not count every type of passenger, including those under 2, but the CAA does, so to maintain a comparison with other airports it's necessary to rely on the CAA stats.

CAA stats December 2017

Show that 517,164 passengers used the terminal, up 2% on December 2016. Atms were down 1.2%. Rolling 12-month total, and for the calendar year, was 8,234,086, up 8.3% on 2016.

As stated in my previous post, the closure of the airport for much of the Friday before Christmas because of an aircraft leaving the runway led to a loss of probably at least 8,000-10,000 passengers and a reduction in the percentage monthly gain from around 3% to 2%.

BRS in its own published figures shows 97,348 fewer passengers in the year than the CAA.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

January 2018

Airport's own passenger figures released today. They show 480,231 used the terminal in the month, up 2.8% on January 2017. A similar percentage rise on the CAA stats for January 2017 would give just under 487,000 for this January. January is always the quietest month.

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-us/news-and-media/facts-and-figures

 

[Red Flyer]

Airport published their own February figures today. 512536 which is up by 27618 on last year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Airport published their own February figures today. 512536 which is up by 27618 on last year.

An increase of 5.91%. Very good considering the number of cancellations on the last day of the month.

CAA still to publish BRS January stats. They've published none for February across the board.

 

[Marko1]

With 4 extra based aircraft this august, is there a chance of topping 1 million for a single month ?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

With 4 extra based aircraft this august, is there a chance of topping 1 million for a single month ?

Probably a tall order. Last August CAA showed 905,050 passengers. To reach one million this August would need a rise in the region of 10.5%. The airport suggested a year-end total of 8.6/8.7 million. If the latter the annual increase would be in the region of 6% so August would need to outperform the average through the year by a significant margin (assuming the airport's projection is near the mark).

It was only in 2013 that the airport saw a monthly total above 700,000 for the first time. Last year each month from May to October saw in excess of 700,000 with June, July and September handling over 800,000 and August over 900,000. April will probably join the list this year.

It's also likely that the only month under 500,000 this year will be January. Last year it was January, February and November.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

2017

CAA stats for 2017 were published today. I'll update the BRS Overview thread with those and other matters in the next few days. In the meantime these are the top 20 routes in terms of passengers carried.

Dublin 429,794 + 8%
Amsterdam 410,341 unchanged
Edinburgh 393,853 + 3%
Malaga 347,703 + 3%
Palma 341,400 unchanged
Alicante 331,043 +6 %
Glasgow 307,010 + 5%
Faro 304,906 + 5%
Belfast Int 261,739 + 5%
Geneva 232,800 + 5%
Barcelona 190,312 + 26%
Tenerife 189,549 - 5%
Arrecife 170,474 + 8%
Newcastle 169,962 + 3%
Paris Cdg 152,571 + 10%
Venice MP 133,577 + 138%
Krakow 126,866 + 13%
Madrid 115,513 + 13%
Rome FCO 112,464 + 3%
Toulouse 110,670 + 2%

In terms of changes from 2016 Venice MP entered the top 20 in place of Ibiza as a result of increased competition between easyJet and Ryanair on the route. There were a few other positional changes in the 'league table' too. In 2016 Amsterdam was the busiest route with 408,570 passengers.

In 2017 Madrid overtook Rome FCO but this was because nearly 10,000 of the MAD route's passengers were carried on charter flights in connection with the European Champions League Final in Cardiff.

The only other routes in 2017 to carry over 100,000 passengers were Las Palmas with 101,893 (+ 19%) and Ibiza with 100,338 (+ 3%).

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats 2017 anomalies

We've discussed many times the unsatisfactory nature of CAA stats. BRS has many examples down the years with the passenger numbers on the Verona route a particular and recurring issue.

In table 12.1 International Passenger Traffic Route Analysis for the calendar year 2017 the CAA lists eleven airports where they have passenger numbers that are 'unknown', ie cannot be identified to a particular route. BRS has the largest total at 10,963, all charter passengers. Incidentally, if they are of unknown origin how does the CAA know they are charter passengers?

Move on to Bristol's Italian routes in this table and Verona is shown as carrying just 694 passengers in the year. This is supposedly the result of a weekly charter in the ski season and two charters each week for much of the summer season. It doesn't take a detective of Sherlock Holmes proportions to suggest that the unknown 10,963 are the missing VRN passenger numbers.

I know that stats are not to everyone's taste and of course they can be slanted to 'prove' or 'disprove' many things that a person might want. However, aviation passenger numbers are real and not arguable so why can't those who are paid to gather them get them right? If I can discover that VRN is under-reported in epic proportions, and certainly not for the first time, why can't whoever is responsible for supplying the figures to the CAA see that as well? After all it's their job but only my, perhaps geeky, interest. If they are incorrect or incomplete why bother to gather and publish them at all? Sounds to me it's a doddle of a job if no-one bothers about slapdash performance.

Early in my working career one of my senior bosses always hammered this mantra, "Attention to detail". That seems a lost art these days.

 

[NOSIGWX]

CAA Stats 2017 anomalies

We've discussed many times the unsatisfactory nature of CAA stats. BRS has many examples down the years with the passenger numbers on the Verona route a particular and recurring issue.

In table 12.1 International Passenger Traffic Route Analysis for the calendar year 2017 the CAA lists eleven airports where they have passenger numbers that are 'unknown', ie cannot be identified to a particular route. BRS has the largest total at 10,963, all charter passengers. Incidentally, if they are of unknown origin how does the CAA know they are charter passengers?

Move on to Bristol's Italian routes in this table and Verona is shown as carrying just 694 ssengers in the year. This is supposedly the result of a weekly charter in the ski season and two charters each week for much of the summer season. It doesn't take a detective of Sherlock Holmes proportions to suggest that the unknown 10,963 are the missing VRN passenger numbers.


I know that stats are not to everyone's taste and of course they can be slanted to 'prove' or 'disprove' many things that a person might want. However, aviation passenger numbers are real and not arguable so why can't those who are paid to gather them get them right? If I can discover that VRN is under-reported in epic proportions, and certainly not for the first time, why can't whoever is responsible for supplying the figures to the CAA see that as well? After all it's their job but only my, perhaps geeky, interest. If they are incorrect or incomplete why bother to gather and publish them at all? Sounds to me it's a doddle of a job if no-one bothers about slapdash performance.

Early in my working career one of my senior bosses always hammered this mantra, "Attention to detail". That seems a lost art these days.

I think the Verona issue will be rectified this year local.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think the Verona issue will be rectified this year local.

Was it you that said BRS were sending the CAA the passenger figures for a small airfield in Verona instead of Verona Villafranca (VRN/LIPX).

 

[BRSregular]

I am off to Garda for a week in August and with Verona just a few miles away I thought I’d take a look at prices seeing as BGY was coming in at £220 return and Venice £180 return. Verona came in at £466 return so it’s no wonder passengers might choose to fly elsewhere!!