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CAA Provisional Statistics Update

superking

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Looks like good figures given the amount of flights that has been cancelled. They are better than I thought they would have been as was dare I say a fair reduction in pax numbers was expected.
 

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TheLocalYokel

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The first time that April has seen over 700,000 passengers. It was only in 2008 that any month saw over 700,000 for the first time - unsurprisingly August of that year - but there was then a wait until 2013 for another month (August again) to see over 700,000 thanks to the recession.

2017 saw 700,000 exceeded each month from May to October with June to September each seeing over 800,000. The highest month - August - saw over 900,000 handled for the first time in any month.


Bristol Airport has published passenger data for May 2018.

820,476 up 7.19% on May 2017

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/about-us/news-and-media/facts-and-figures
If August sees a similar percentage increase the monthly total will be around 970,000. August 2019 would then need a 3% increase to reach one million passengers in the month. I remember Les Wilson (legendary former MD of the airport sadly no longer with us) celebrating when one million was reached for the first time in a year.
 

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CAA Stats May 2018

BRS features in the first tranche of monthly results for once.

834,054 passengers handled in the month, up 7.5% on May 2017. Atms were up 3.6%. Rolling 12-month total was 8,344,827, up 5.3% on a year ago.
 

superking

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CAA Stats May 2018

BRS features in the first tranche of monthly results for once.

834,054 passengers handled in the month, up 7.5% on May 2017. Atms were up 3.6%. Rolling 12-month total was 8,344,827, up 5.3% on a year ago.
Perhaps someone at CAA been reading some of the posts over the last few months and it spured them to get stats out in the first tranche.
 

TheLocalYokel

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June 2018

Still awaiting CAA stats but BRS's own stats show 894,435 passengers handled in the month, up 6.25% on the airport's figures for June 2017.

A similar percentage rise in CAA stats would take the monthly total over 900,000 - the first time the 900,000 barrier will have been exceeded in June.
 

TheLocalYokel

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June 2018

Still awaiting CAA stats but BRS's own stats show 894,435 passengers handled in the month, up 6.25% on the airport's figures for June 2017.

A similar percentage rise in CAA stats would take the monthly total over 900,000 - the first time the 900,000 barrier will have been exceeded in June.
Assuming the CAA stats show June at over 900,000 - it seems a very safe assumption given that BRS doesn't include the likes of Under 2s and others in its own figures - it will be only the second month in the airport's history of a monthly total over 900,000. The first occasion was August last year with 905,050.

If July and August see similar percentage rises (they might be a bit bigger because June 2018's percentage rise was affected by the additional passengers carried in June 2017 for the European Champions League Final in Cardiff) those months will also be over 900,000 and September might - just - but it would be close-run.

Short of something impacting considerable negativity on next year, August 2019 seems in line to be the first calendar month ever to see one million passengers handled.
 

Marko1

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Interestingly its charter flights that's driving the growth and that won't be a factor next year . Any idea what the forecasts are for next year ?
 

TheLocalYokel

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Interestingly its charter flights that's driving the growth and that won't be a factor next year . Any idea what the forecasts are for next year ?
Charter was certainly up easily the most percentage wise, but with actual numbers charter and scheduled international added roughly the same number of passengers in June.

If the CAA June stats are up by 6.25% it will mean that there were 53,275 more passengers in June this year than in June 2017 giving a total of 905,680 passengers in June this year. . Based on the CAA rolling 12-month total for May the rolling 12-month total at the end of June would be 8,398,102, up 4.9% on the same period a year ago. Because the CAA's figure has a higher base the percentage won't be exactly the same as BRS's own figures but these numbers should be in the right area.

Looking towards the end of the summer, ie end of October, the rolling 12-month total should be in the region of 8.6 million, based on the percentage monthly rises so far this summer, meaning year end 2018 ought to be somewhere north of 8.6 million which was the airport's projection at the beginning of the year.

As for 2019 I have no idea what that's likely to bring in terms of passenger numbers. We have an initial idea of the main charter companies' offering but it will really depend on what easyJet brings to the table, unless Ryanair decides to match its winter growth of recent years in summer 2019 - I'm not holding my breath. The first three months of 2019 ought to be positive given the additional capacity from easyJet and Ryanair this winter.

As we've discussed in recent weeks if the airport is to reach its proclaimed 10 mppa by the end of 2021 the next three years will have to see an average growth of 400,000-450,000 passengers per year, which is the sort of growth 2018 is likely to see. It's consideraby less than the three years 2015-2017 both percentage-wise and in actual numbers, so perhaps is achievable. By what means though is anyone's guess.
 

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If the CAA June stats are up by 6.25% it will mean that there were 53,275 more passengers in June this year than in June 2017 giving a total of 905,680 passengers in June this year. . Based on the CAA rolling 12-month total for May the rolling 12-month total at the end of June would be 8,398,102, up 4.9% on the same period a year ago. Because the CAA's figure has a higher base the percentage won't be exactly the same as BRS's own figures but these numbers should be in the right area.
CAA stats for June now out and show that 907,578 terminal passengers used the airport in the month, an increase of 6.56% on June 2017. The rolling 12-month total is exactly 8,400,000, up 4.93% on a year ago.

Given that BRS was over 10,000 down on Madrid (the UEFA Cup Final in Cardiff in June 2017) the figures are encouraging.
 

Aviador

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Has Bristol Airport ever exceeded 1,000,000 passengers in a single calendar month?
 

TheLocalYokel

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Has Bristol Airport ever exceeded 1,000,000 passengers in a single calendar month?
No. August this year would need a 10% increase over last August and that is highly unlikely. If current monthly percentage increases are continued into the peak summer August this year will probably see around 965,000, perhaps a bit more.

August 2019 might well be the month that sees the one million figure achieved.
 

Aviador

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I hadn't realised BRS was actually so close to breaking the million in a month barrier.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I hadn't realised BRS was actually so close to breaking the million in a month barrier.
It's a busy little airport but is in desperate need to be able to expand its site size. It's proactively pursuing this aim and already owns some adjacent land outside the current boundary. There will be lot of objectors as the airport is sited in the Green Belt but part of the site has already been declared a Green Belt Inset and the airport must be hoping they can persuade the local authority to expand the Inset.
 

TheLocalYokel

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The July figures have been published today. They are 925910 an increase of 60865 on July 2017. Those who would rather deal in percentages it is 7.06%.
7% increase on July 2017 CAA stats would give around 936,000 for this July. Rolling 12-month total would be circa 8.46 million at the end of July.

I agree that percentages on their own are of limited value for anything. A context needs to be applied and if used for comparison purposes the various base figures have to be shown to give a true comparative picture. 10% of not very much is often a lot less than 1% of a great deal.

However, percentages on their own can have a usefulness. For instance, since May the monthly percentage passenger rises at BRS have been 7.5%, 6.5% and 7% respectively. June's 6.5% is lower mainly because June 2017 saw 10,000 additional passengers for the UEFA club football final in Cardiff. It seems therefore that the summer has settled into a fairly consistent monthly percentage rise.

If the reasonable assumption is made that August and September will both see rises in the region of 7% and possibly October as well, the summer season will finish with BRS's 12-monthly rolling total a shade under 8.6 million. Given that the coming winter, short of something unforeseen, will see a decent rise in passenger numbers on the back of significant extra services from easyJet and Ryanair, with TUI also stepping up a bit, it's likely that the final calendar year total for 2018 will be closer to 8.65 million than to 8.6 million.

Obviously the greater the airport footfall the more the important ancillary revenue streams such as retail and car parking will be fed.
 

kraktoa

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Of the 8.6 million passengers for the year is there ever a breakdown of international and domestic numbers including Dublin and channel Islands
 

Jerry

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Of the 8.6 million passengers for the year is there ever a breakdown of international and domestic numbers including Dublin and channel Islands
As far as I know the only way to do that would be at the end end of the year when the CAA release the yearly figures.
 

TheLocalYokel

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In mathematical terms a 7% annual rise (in compound terms) results in a doubling of the original base number in 10 years!
If BRS saw a 7% rise in passenger numbers in each of the next ten years we’d be looking at 16 mppa in 2028. Isn’t going to happen of course.

Of the 8.6 million passengers for the year is there ever a breakdown of international and domestic numbers including Dublin and channel Islands
As Jerry points out, the CAA issues monthly and annual passenger figures in respect of every UK international and domestic route. The figures are for routes not for individual airlines on a route, although the figures are divided into scheduled and charter passengers.

This link leads to the CAA’s table for June’s international traffic.

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/Content/Standard_Content/Data_and_analysis/Datasets/Airport_stats/Airport_data_2018_06/Table_12_1_Intl_Air_Pax_Traffic_Route_Analysis.pdf

Of the routes you mention, these are the annual passenger totals for 2017 from the CAA tables.

Bristol-Dublin: 429,794 passengers, with 429,340 scheduled (the combined total of Aer Lingus Regional and Ryanair) and 454 charter (probably rugby related).

Bristol-Jersey: 26,579 passengers, all scheduled so all belonging to Blue Island/Flybe.

Bristol-Guernsey: 24,959 passengers, all scheduled so all belonging to Aurigny.
 

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