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CAA Provisional Statistics Update


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TheLocalYokel

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CAA Stats October 2018

October = 801,881 up 4%
Thank you Ian.

Strange that the CAA has now pubished all October airport stats, including BRS, yet September's are still to be closed off because BRS is outstanding. The airport's own stats are still stuck on August.

801,881 terminal passengers in October is a rise of 4.16% on October 2017. The CAA shows the rolling 12-month total as 8.603 million which is approximately 5% up on a year ago.

Working back it seems the CAA September passenger figure was in the region of 890,000, about 5.7% up on September 2017. What seems clear is that this year BRS saw six consecutive months (May-October) with passenger numbers above 800,000, including three (June, July and August) above 900,000.

As always, if BRS publishes its own September figures before the CAA publishes its own, expect BRS's to be several thousand lower than the CAA.
 

TheLocalYokel

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CAA Stats October 2018



Thank you Ian.

Strange that the CAA has now pubished all October airport stats, including BRS, yet September's are still to be closed off because BRS is outstanding. The airport's own stats are still stuck on August.

801,881 terminal passengers in October is a rise of 4.16% on October 2017. The CAA shows the rolling 12-month total as 8.603 million which is approximately 5% up on a year ago.

Working back it seems the CAA September passenger figure was in the region of 890,000, about 5.7% up on September 2017. What seems clear is that this year BRS saw six consecutive months (May-October) with passenger numbers above 800,000, including three (June, July and August) above 900,000.

As always, if BRS publishes its own September figures before the CAA publishes its own, expect BRS's to be several thousand lower than the CAA.
CAA Stats September 2018

Published today for BRS at long last, albeit October's CAA stats were published last week.

For the sake of completeness, I'll post September's figures below.

889,035 passengers used the terminal, up 6% on September 2017. Rolling 12 month total was 8.571 million.

Incidentally, I can no longer find BRS's own passenger stats on its website. Until very recently the way in was to click on About Us which then gave an option News & Media. A click on News & Media gave two further options, News and Facts & Figures, with the latter showing the airport's own monthly passenger figures broken down into charter, scheduled and others together with aircraft movements in these categories.

Now a click on News & Media merely leads to the latest news. I've tried entering Facts and Figures in the airport's web site search box with no result. I've also tried other forms of words again with nil result.

Perhaps the airport has decided to end publishing its own figures which are always less than the CAA's for reasons well documented in BRS threads. I wondered the other day if BRS was intending to come into line with the CAA's stats from now on when a recent airport press release mentioned being on track for 8.7 million passengers this year. Given their own annual figures are usually around 100,000 fewer than the CAA's there would be no way their figures could reach 8.7 million this year (I wonder whether the CAA's figures will quite get there too).
 

TheLocalYokel

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2019

The airport's press release today regarding its latest planning applications states that 2019 is likely to see in excess of 9 million passengers.

As 2018 is forecast to finish around 8.7 million, perhaps slightly less, it would mean at least another 300,000 in 2019. That increase would be down on recent years but, given that the two TUI 757s are going to be replaced by 737-800s with the consequent loss of seats and easyJet is apparently putting in one extra aircraft this summer (number 16) with Ryanair seemingly static again in its summer provision, it begs the obvious question as to where these extra passengers are coming from.

The first three months of 2019 ought to see a boost because of the increased winter services but summer might be less certain.
 

TheLocalYokel

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CAA Stats September 2018

I've had a look at the International Passenger Traffic Route Analysis for September. BRS was very late in being published which caused the September stats for all airports to be closed after October's were published.

No charter traffic passengers are shown on any route, including Sanford, meaning that many routes shared by scheduled and charter traffic are down overall by very large percentage figures.

Some charter routes are not shown at all with Enfidha and Punta Cana being examples.
 

alphagolf

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CAA Stats September 2018

I've had a look at the International Passenger Traffic Route Analysis for September. BRS was very late in being published which caused the September stats for all airports to be closed after October's were published.

No charter traffic passengers are shown on any route, including Sanford, meaning that many routes shared by scheduled and charter traffic are down overall by very large percentage figures.

Some charter routes are not shown at all with Enfidha and Punta Cana being examples.
I too have been through both Domestic and International tables and calculated about 96,000 pax missing, the following have nothing recorded:-
CEG
INN
JTR
REU
NBE
SFB
PUJ

Also as Local mentioned all routes having no Charter figures at all. Even though routes that are solely charter recorded as Scheduled, its a complete mess.
 

Marko1

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2019

The airport's press release today regarding its latest planning applications states that 2019 is likely to see in excess of 9 million passengers.

As 2018 is forecast to finish around 8.7 million, perhaps slightly less, it would mean at least another 300,000 in 2019. That increase would be down on recent years but, given that the two TUI 757s are going to be replaced by 737-800s with the consequent loss of seats and easyJet is apparently putting in one extra aircraft this summer (number 16) with Ryanair seemingly static again in its summer provision, it begs the obvious question as to where these extra passengers are coming from.

The first three months of 2019 ought to see a boost because of the increased winter services but summer might be less certain.

Given that easyJet have not released much yet I’m wondering if no16 is still coming . Also given that there will be no growth elsewhere I also wonder where the 300k plus are coming from. New year surprises??
 

TheLocalYokel

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I too have been through both Domestic and International tables and calculated about 96,000 pax missing, the following have nothing recorded:-
CEG
INN
JTR
REU
NBE
SFB
PUJ

Also as Local mentioned all routes having no Charter figures at all. Even though routes that are solely charter recorded as Scheduled, its a complete mess.
Verona is another that is not even shown. No real surprise there as we know that Verona has been farcical in terms of CAA stats for several years. Some months and even seasons it's not shown at all even though services have operated consistently.

People are getting paid to produce these figures and ensure their accuracy. If amateurs like us can easily spot the deficiencies why can't the 'professionals'?
 

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It's the same as news reports, it doesn't matter if it is incorrect. Totally unprofessional, but that appears to be the norm in a lot of companies nowadays.
There I am, showing my age again. :yawn:
 

TheLocalYokel

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Given that easyJet have not released much yet I’m wondering if no16 is still coming . Also given that there will be no growth elsewhere I also wonder where the 300k plus are coming from. New year surprises??
The first three months of 2019 might produce an additional circa 100,000 passengers, or somewhere near, especially given the disruption last March when from memory around 400 flights were cancelled because of the 'Beast From The East's second visit of the winter. The first visit also caused some disruption.

This presumes the Beast or a near relative doesn't appear again in early 2019. However, Easter is well into April in 2019 whereas in 2018 Good Friday was on 30 March which gave some impetus to the end of that month. At least April 2019 should benefit.

I know that a couple of months or so ago an easyJet spokeswoman said there would be 200,000 more passengers in 2019 but some of those would be the result of the airline's increased winter schedule.

Do you remember this press release from October?

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/ab...media-centre/2018/10/even-better-from-bristol

In it the airport stated that over 3.5 million passengers would be handled from the beginning of November this year until the end of March next year which they said was an approximate 10% increase on the same period last winter.

Last winter the same period saw 2.564 million passengers so a 10% increase on that would amount to about 250,000 passengers, which is nowhere near the 900,000-plus needed to reach 3.5 million. Even 250,000 would need an average monthly rise of 50,000 throughout the five-month period and that seems ambitious for winter.

When we get November's stats, assuming they are not as farcical as September's, we might have an idea if the 10% is realistic.
 

TheLocalYokel

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CAA published airport/route passenger stats for November yesterday. Most airports are included but yet again BRS is an absentee. The airport's own figures on its website are still stuck at August.
 

TheLocalYokel

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2018 passenger figures

In a press release issued this week regarding forthcoming jobs fares at the airport (see post in BRS General thread), the airport said this, Around 4,000 people are employed at the Airport, which handled over 8.7 million passengers in 2018.

We are still waiting for the final figures for 2018, both from the airport and from the CAA. The former has only issued its own figures until the end of August so far, and the CAA only till the end of October.

In 2017 the airport's figures showed an annual total of 8,136,738 and the CAA showed 8,234,086. The near 100,000 difference is due to the airport not including some types of passenger - under 2s for example - in its own figures whilst the CAA does include them.

If the 'over 8.7million passengers in 2018' is based on the airport's figures (ie no under 2 s etc) it is likely that the CAA's would by around 8.8 million. Given that the last known 12-month rolling CAA total was 8,603,000 at the end of October that would mean another 200,000 passengers in the final two months of the year, a rise of around 20% in both November and December.

If, on the other hand, the airport has now decided to parallel the CAA and count under 2s etc meaning 'over 8.7 million' is also the CAA total, it would still mean an additional 50,000 passengers in both November and December, a rise of around 10% in both.

I wonder why the BRS website is stuck on the August figures if the airport knows the total for the calendar year of 2018.
 

TheLocalYokel

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TheLocalYokel

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Yes I thought that too. Perhaps they got themselves muddled with the caa figure. Now that it is 8.6 mill, that’s 400k more passengers to find for 2019.
You're probably right. Assuming BRS continues to exclude certain types of traveller from its own stats the CAA terminal passenger stats are likely to be about 100,000 more than BRS's again, so around 8.7 million for the CAA would fit that bill although we are yet to learn the BRS CAA stats for November.
 

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