Route Development

[forest1979]

I’ve wondered myself about TUI at newquay although I tend to agree that if it was going to happen fir next year at least, then we would have heard about it now. They definitely have aircraft availability for w pattern routes and I believe the airport could sustain a couple of summer routes. The snag may be the hit for Ryanair and direct competition for Exeter which have a based aircraft. The population of cornwall is small so it would need to be favourable to getting at least the plymothians using the flights and other parts of Devon. Having said all that, newquay is on the up and TUI are probably the most connected to regional airports of UK airlines

 

[forest1979]

I’ve wondered myself about TUI at newquay although I tend to agree that if it was going to happen fir next year at least, then we would have heard about it now. They definitely have aircraft availability for w pattern routes and I believe the airport could sustain a couple of summer routes. The snag may be the hit for Ryanair and direct competition for Exeter which have a based aircraft. The population of cornwall is small so it would need to be favourable to getting at least the plymothians using the flights and other parts of Devon. Having said all that, newquay is on the up and TUI are probably the most connected to regional airports of UK airlines

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I’ve wondered myself about TUI at newquay although I tend to agree that if it was going to happen fir next year at least, then we would have heard about it now. They definitely have aircraft availability for w pattern routes and I believe the airport could sustain a couple of summer routes. The snag may be the hit for Ryanair and direct competition for Exeter which have a based aircraft. The population of cornwall is small so it would need to be favourable to getting at least the plymothians using the flights and other parts of Devon. Having said all that, newquay is on the up and TUI are probably the most connected to regional airports of UK airlines

I think I'm on solid ground in saying that TUI/Thomson/Britannia never based an aircraft at NQY in the past. However, did they ever operate using non-based aircraft?

 

[forest1979]

I think I'm on solid ground in saying that TUI/Thomson/Britannia never based an aircraft at NQY in the past. However, did they ever operate using non-based aircraft?

Correct. A couple of one offs I believe, one being a packed New Year’s Day flight to Barbados for cruise passangers. Surprised we haven’t seen more of those, certainly a market for it in cornwall. likewise a big inbound market for US travelers that come to the Cornish coast on April early May cruises. Falmouth is a popular docking spot for them..(Eden, heligan, poldark etc)

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Correct. A couple of one offs I believe, one being a packed New Year’s Day flight to Barbados for cruise passangers. Surprised we haven’t seen more of those, certainly a market for it in cornwall. likewise a big inbound market for US travelers that come to the Cornish coast on April early May cruises. Falmouth is a popular docking spot for them..(Eden, heligan, poldark etc)

It does seem surprising that there haven't been more of the Caribbean cruise flights. EXT doesn't seem to have many - none at all in 2017 - and BRS only seems to get one or two each winter at best. BOH tends to get more than BRS but CWL is easily the most prolific in south west Britain.

On the face of it it's back to front. The South West is home to many retired, comfortably-off people with the means and time to travel and it might be thought that cruise holidays are the sort of thing many would go for. I understand that cruising is increasingly popular with younger people (younger than OAPs that is) and again the South West has a healthy market of this type of person.

South Wales is always thought of as an area where the propensity to fly is supposedly less than in many areas of Britain yet CWL seems to do very well with the cruise flights which are in the winter yet in the past has struggled to support other types of flights in that season.

After 30-odd years of trying to make sense of airport and airline economics as an interested outsider I'm not really any the wiser when it comes to trying to second-guess. I still find it an arcane subject.

 

[forest1979]

Well with big increases for TUI at Exeter, Bristol, Bournemouth and Cardiff, I think it’s put to bed for now any hope for NQY. Probably very ambitious anyhow.
Hoping Ryanair might think about a canaries winter flight and maybe palma in the coming year(s)

 

[superking]

Trust me if there are routes from NQY to be capitalised on MOL would have tapped into them...you have a small taste of Ryanair which we did to begin with at LBA and if it works for them they will increase the routes...but as you say its a very small market the South West and only big enough for 1 player in my opinion.....I am lucky enough to have a home in Yorkshire and Devon and it makes me laugh when I ask my Devonian friends where they go on holiday....to which they reply DEVON......why go anywhere when you live here they say.....thats a very hard market to tap into.

The same thing happens wales, they would not dream of going any where out side of wales. Mind you I can understand that as very pretty over on the west coast and not over run with fairs etc.

 

[forest1979]

That will be Devon and cornwall for you!
On the plus side, you are right about Ryanair in terms of overseas flights. I’m hopeful that continued good loads will see them consider a couple more sun routes. For all the stay at homes there are at least a couple that need some foreign sunshine. With competitive prices it does give devonians the option of Exeter, Bristol or Newquay.
Hoping the German routes do well also, four this year which is great.

 

[forest1979]

Lets hope Ryanair and the airport do a better job of publicising to both Plymouth and the wider area the flights available from Newquay as PLY is a big old area to pull from..
Given its recent success, the airport are at some stage going to have think about it longer term plan. The terminal in the summer is too small at time for all the activity let alone baggage reclaim when you have one or more flights in.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I invariably see coaches from Devon and Cornwall when I'm at Bristol Airport. Today I saw a school party arrive in a coach from Mounts Bay to fly off somewhere. The hourly Falcon service from Plymouth/Exeter/Taunton is invariably well patronised too.

CAA stats usually show that about 1.5 million people with origin or final destination in Devon or Cornwall use BRS each year, broadly the same number as South Wales travellers who use the airport. Devon/Cornwall/South Wales are responsible for just over a third of BRS's annual passneger numbers.

CWL is managing to get some routes it's never had before which might cut into the number of 'defectors' a bit. If NQY could do the same the results might be similar.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

http://www.anna.aero/2018/06/14/eas...nference-18-domestic-destinations-identified/

If easyJet gains access to LHR through a third runway they have indicated an intention to operate up to 18 domestic routes from there including 12 currently unserved from LHR, with NQY being one of them.

 

[Jerry]

A leading member of Cornwall council says he is confident that the PSO for the Newquay to London route that ends in October will be renewed. The DfT has already indicated that it will honour the route but that is subject to it approving the councils prefered operator which the council selected but won't reveal until September after the DfT gives approval after it assesses the bid for quality and value for money.
http://www.thisisthewestcountry.co....ubsidised-by-government-according-to-council/
I wonder if BA would be interested in bidding for this for a link to LHR?

 

[Silvercity]

A leading member of Cornwall council says he is confident that the PSO for the Newquay to London route that ends in October will be renewed. The DfT has already indicated that it will honour the route but that is subject to it approving the councils prefered operator which the council selected but won't reveal until September after the DfT gives approval after it assesses the bid for quality and value for money.
http://www.thisisthewestcountry.co....ubsidised-by-government-according-to-council/
I wonder if BA would be interested in bidding for this for a link to LHR?

I'm sure it will continue, flybe seem to do well on it.

 

[Jerry]

I'm sure it will continue, flybe seem to do well on it.

I believe it'll carry on as well and hopefully Flybe will keep the contract.

 

[Silvercity]

I believe it'll carry on as well and hopefully Flybe will keep the contract.

Yes I hope they do too.

 

[Silvercity]

http://www.anna.aero/2018/06/14/eas...nference-18-domestic-destinations-identified/

If easyJet gains access to LHR through a third runway they have indicated an intention to operate up to 18 domestic routes from there including 12 currently unserved from LHR, with NQY being one of them.

I think flybe are keen too, I imagine they wont clash on routes, that wouldn't be good.

 

[forest1979]

They are supposed to be off loading their E195’s so if it does continue but with a smaller aircraft they may up the frequency. Not sure on the timeline for aircraft removal
Cant see BA rocking up anytime soon.. of course flybe are at heathrow too although slots are probably not available

 

[TheLocalYokel]

They are supposed to be off loading their E195’s so if it does continue but with a smaller aircraft they may up the frequency. Not sure on the timeline for aircraft removal
Cant see BA rocking up anytime soon.. of course flybe are at heathrow too although slots are probably not available

This route has been the subject of discussion on another aviation website message board in recent days. Posters there who have flown on it say that in their experience the loads are always high and the need for PSO status was questioned.

High loads in themselves don't always indicate a profitable route of course so it seems the PSO subsidy makes the route viable for the carrier.

This recent press report discusses the future of the PSO element of the route.

http://www.thisisthewestcountry.co....ubsidised-by-government-according-to-council/

 

[Jerry]

They are supposed to be off loading their E195’s so if it does continue but with a smaller aircraft they may up the frequency. Not sure on the timeline for aircraft removal
Cant see BA rocking up anytime soon.. of course flybe are at heathrow too although slots are probably not available

In May 16,444 passengers used the Gatwick route so it gets a decent amount of footfall which could tempt BA to have a look at the route but obviously slots could be an issue and they could also be an issue at a Gatwick for Flybe in the future.

High loads in themselves don't always indicate a profitable route of course so it seems the PSO subsidy makes the route viable for the carrier.

If i remember correctly during that discussion someone mentioned that the PSO part was linked to the ammount of pax so more pax use the route the less the subsidy is.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

If i remember correctly during that discussion someone mentioned that the PSO part was linked to the ammount of pax so more pax use the route the less the subsidy is.

That was what one poster said but he seemed a bit uncertain as to how accurate his comment was. From the point of view of public money, tax payers would hope that poster is correct.