Cardiff: Route Development & Rumours

[Jerry]

Good to see Cardiff Airport on the list of attendees to Routes Europe 2025 in Seville though Visit Wales isn't on the list.

Event Programme | Routes Europe 2025 | Routes

A packed programme of face-to-face meetings, conference sessions, and networking opportunities will be available at Routes Europe 2025. Monday 7 April Complimentary tours Various Book your tour Badge Collection...

www.routesonline.com

 

[Jerry]

Good to see Cardiff Airport on the list of attendees to Routes Europe 2025 in Seville though Visit Wales isn't on the list.

Event Programme | Routes Europe 2025 | Routes

A packed programme of face-to-face meetings, conference sessions, and networking opportunities will be available at Routes Europe 2025. Monday 7 April Complimentary tours Various Book your tour Badge Collection...

www.routesonline.com

Looking at the airports LinkedIn post it doesn't look like the airport had a stand there.

#routeseurope | Cardiff Airport

We're thrilled to be at #RoutesEurope 2025 ð It's day one of airline meetings and we're discussing route development opportunities from Cardiff Airport and Wales ð´ó §ó ¢ó ·ó ¬ó ³ó ¿

www.linkedin.com

 

[Jerry]

Bit of a wishlist in what I hope we'll see develop and be announced for Winter 2025 and Summer 2026 in the next 12 months and possibly beyond that.
Ryanair
Dublin to go 6 weekly during W25 and daily in S26.
Tenerife to go 2 weekly all year round.
Alicante to go 4 weekly in S26
Malaga to go 4 weekly all S26
Faro to go 3 weekly S26
Even if they don't add more frequency to their current routes then I hope we'll at least see more 737 8200s increasing the amount of seats onsale.
Vueling
Alicante to go 4 weekly S26
Malaga to actually go onsale for W25 all winter and to go 4 weekly all S26
KLM
The return of the night stopping aircraft and frequency to go back to 21 weekly for W26 would be fantastic but S26 will be just as great.
Aer Lingus
Increase in frequency on Belfast. 8 or 9 weekly with extra flights on Friday afternoons and Sunday evenings.
Loganair
To go daily on Edinburgh all year round. Preferably using their ATR72 but even if the flights continue on the E145 then that's at least something.
TUI
A 4th based aircraft for S26 would be ideal but if not then I hope they'll add extra frequency to routes through non based aircraft either their own or other carriers or a combination of both.
Hopefully as well with 2 aircraft based in winter we'll see some routes starting early in April as well giving CWL an extra passenger boost.
New/Resuming routes
Most of these would be resuming routes some away longer than others.
Barcelona hopefully with either Ryanair or Vueling.
Paris hopefully with Air France but maybe Ryanair could be a possibility.
Palma de Mallorca hopefully with Ryanair or Vueling but maybe a big wildcard would be Easyjet Europe.
Verona, hopefully we'll see a return of an Italian route. TUI would be the most logical choice for me but maybe a wildcard could be Volotea with TUI using them.
Sun Express too Antalya would be a nice addition as well. Could be used by TUI to offer more frequency on that route as well.
With maybe the exception of Paris with Air France I'd say all of these would realistically not happen until S26 at the earliest if at all.
Just to add as well passenger numbers wise I think if Cardiff can get between 900,000-950,000 in 2025 and then potentially get back over the 1 million passenger mark in 2026 that will be big achievement.

 

[Samdorob]

Bit of a wishlist in what I hope we'll see develop and be announced for Winter 2025 and Summer 2026 in the next 12 months and possibly beyond that.
Ryanair
Dublin to go 6 weekly during W25 and daily in S26.
Tenerife to go 2 weekly all year round.
Alicante to go 4 weekly in S26
Malaga to go 4 weekly all S26
Faro to go 3 weekly S26
Even if they don't add more frequency to their current routes then I hope we'll at least see more 737 8200s increasing the amount of seats onsale.
Vueling
Alicante to go 4 weekly S26
Malaga to actually go onsale for W25 all winter and to go 4 weekly all S26
KLM
The return of the night stopping aircraft and frequency to go back to 21 weekly for W26 would be fantastic but S26 will be just as great.
Aer Lingus
Increase in frequency on Belfast. 8 or 9 weekly with extra flights on Friday afternoons and Sunday evenings.
Loganair
To go daily on Edinburgh all year round. Preferably using their ATR72 but even if the flights continue on the E145 then that's at least something.
TUI
A 4th based aircraft for S26 would be ideal but if not then I hope they'll add extra frequency to routes through non based aircraft either their own or other carriers or a combination of both.
Hopefully as well with 2 aircraft based in winter we'll see some routes starting early in April as well giving CWL an extra passenger boost.
New/Resuming routes
Most of these would be resuming routes some away longer than others.
Barcelona hopefully with either Ryanair or Vueling.
Paris hopefully with Air France but maybe Ryanair could be a possibility.
Palma de Mallorca hopefully with Ryanair or Vueling but maybe a big wildcard would be Easyjet Europe.
Verona, hopefully we'll see a return of an Italian route. TUI would be the most logical choice for me but maybe a wildcard could be Volotea with TUI using them.
Sun Express too Antalya would be a nice addition as well. Could be used by TUI to offer more frequency on that route as well.
With maybe the exception of Paris with Air France I'd say all of these would realistically not happen until S26 at the earliest if at all.
Just to add as well passenger numbers wise I think if Cardiff can get between 900,000-950,000 in 2025 and then potentially get back over the 1 million passenger mark in 2026 that will be big achievement.

There’s a lot to digest there, but here are the ones that I think will happen in W25/S26.
- Additional Dublin frequency. 5 weekly perhaps.
- PMI at least 2 weekly with an away based carrier. This one surely has to happen soon.
- Belfast increase.
- Ryanair frequency increase on Malaga and Alicante. I think Faro performs well, but the loads aren’t bursting.
- Barcelona with Vueling (maybe).

It’s difficult to say what Vueling will do with their general frequency given their sporadic timetable of late.

As for a 4th based TUI, I think someone on this group mentioned potential exciting news this summer (on the TUI thread). They consistently perform well and don’t have the direct threat of Jet2 like most of their other operations. If it isn’t a 4th based then I think we’ll still see at least one new route from them.

 

[geoff]

I think the re-activating of the Malta route could be a possibility, with Ryanair having a big presence there, and the fact that now have agreements with seven OLA plus TUI, and this week signed a new agreement with Expedia.com.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Bit of a wishlist in what I hope we'll see develop and be announced for Winter 2025 and Summer 2026 in the next 12 months and possibly beyond that.
Ryanair
Dublin to go 6 weekly during W25 and daily in S26.
Tenerife to go 2 weekly all year round.
Alicante to go 4 weekly in S26
Malaga to go 4 weekly all S26
Faro to go 3 weekly S26
Even if they don't add more frequency to their current routes then I hope we'll at least see more 737 8200s increasing the amount of seats onsale.
Vueling
Alicante to go 4 weekly S26
Malaga to actually go onsale for W25 all winter and to go 4 weekly all S26
KLM
The return of the night stopping aircraft and frequency to go back to 21 weekly for W26 would be fantastic but S26 will be just as great.
Aer Lingus
Increase in frequency on Belfast. 8 or 9 weekly with extra flights on Friday afternoons and Sunday evenings.
Loganair
To go daily on Edinburgh all year round. Preferably using their ATR72 but even if the flights continue on the E145 then that's at least something.
TUI
A 4th based aircraft for S26 would be ideal but if not then I hope they'll add extra frequency to routes through non based aircraft either their own or other carriers or a combination of both.
Hopefully as well with 2 aircraft based in winter we'll see some routes starting early in April as well giving CWL an extra passenger boost.
New/Resuming routes
Most of these would be resuming routes some away longer than others.
Barcelona hopefully with either Ryanair or Vueling.
Paris hopefully with Air France but maybe Ryanair could be a possibility.
Palma de Mallorca hopefully with Ryanair or Vueling but maybe a big wildcard would be Easyjet Europe.
Verona, hopefully we'll see a return of an Italian route. TUI would be the most logical choice for me but maybe a wildcard could be Volotea with TUI using them.
Sun Express too Antalya would be a nice addition as well. Could be used by TUI to offer more frequency on that route as well.
With maybe the exception of Paris with Air France I'd say all of these would realistically not happen until S26 at the earliest if at all.
Just to add as well passenger numbers wise I think if Cardiff can get between 900,000-950,000 in 2025 and then potentially get back over the 1 million passenger mark in 2026 that will be big achievement.

There definitely seems to be some traction of growth with FR and VY. It's a shame it's just on the core routes, but still a great achievements with probably the highest number of seats to ALC and AGP ever seen.
I get the impression with the sudden increases from Vueling that some kind of new deal has been done with CWL, and there's still more being added like the random dates in June. Hopefully that's a sign that a deal can be done for PMI and BCN.
Although it seems ALC and AGP are selling well with both FR and VY, timings are still key to the routes successes, and timings this year aren't as good as previous years.

I don't think your wishlist Jerry is beyond the realms of possibility. I can't see TUI putting more aircraft in, but maybe more W pattern and maybe some extra random long haul dates if the current offering does well. With US demand slumping as well, that could mean people look at short haul options.

The press coverage has recently increased again, which points to some background work happening at CWL. Over previous years that usually results in new things coming, so fingers crossed for something big for next year. FR base anyone?

Summer 2025 needs to be a good year and I think that pre-covid growth will return in some form.

 

[Jerry]

I get the impression with the sudden increases from Vueling that some kind of new deal has been done with CWL, and there's still more being added like the random dates in June. Hopefully that's a sign that a deal can be done for PMI and BCN.

Fingers crossed we'll see both of those routes will return. Even if even if one is with Ryanair and the other Vueling. It would be great to see both expanding.

I can't see TUI putting more aircraft in, but maybe more W pattern and maybe some extra random long haul dates if the current offering does well.

If not S26 then I'd hope S27 but they may want to add more non based flights first before they go for a 4th based which is similar to what they did before the 3rd based arrived.

FR base anyone?

That would be fantastic and a very big surprise. The one question I'd have over that would be the winter but they’re at essentially one based in the summer now. Could a seasonal base be an option?

 

[Foxlimayankee]

That would be fantastic and a very big surprise. The one question I'd have over that would be the winter but they’re at essentially one based in the summer now. Could a seasonal base be an option?

It's not unheard of. They need to find something for the aircraft to do. A seasonal base isn't sustainable as they'd need to recruit new crews every year. At least with a 1 aircraft winter Base they can keep crews permanent and increase the seasonal recruitment for anything more.
Routes wise winter could see 1-2x weekly canaries, 1-2 ALC, AGP and FAO, some or all DUB flights on CWL based. Some eastern European routes.

 

[Jerry]

It's not unheard of. They need to find something for the aircraft to do. A seasonal base isn't sustainable as they'd need to recruit new crews every year. At least with a 1 aircraft winter Base they can keep crews permanent and increase the seasonal recruitment for anything more.
Routes wise winter could see 1-2x weekly canaries, 1-2 ALC, AGP and FAO, some or all DUB flights on CWL based. Some eastern European routes.

Well they did operate Bournemouth in that way for quite a while. 1 based and a lot of non based aircraft.

 

[Jerry]

Doesn't mention Cardiff but maybe a wildcard for the future of they're looking to expand?

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www.ttgmedia.com

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Someone posted on a different forum the 93 FR bases for Summer 2025 and number of aircraft at each base.
Below is the wishlist of possible routes I think CWL could gain from FR.
In brackets is the number of flights from BRS with FR and EZY combined to show current demand.

Dublin 34**
Malaga 18**
Alicante 18**
Faro 11**
Tenerife 4 **

Palma de Mallorca 16 (32x weekly from BRS, not including LS and TUI)
Barcelona 14 (20x weekly from BRS)
Madrid 13 (9x weekly from BRS)
Krakow 12 (9x weekly from BRS)
Rome (Fiumicino) 9 (7x weekly from BRS, EZY only)
Milan (Malpensa) 8 (10x weekly from BRS 7xMXP/3xBGO)
Malta 8 (2x weekly from BRS, EZY only)
Venice 4 (6x weekly from BRS)
Lisbon 4 (7x weekly from BRS, EZY only)
Paphos 4 (3x weekly from BRS, EZY only)
Lanzarote 3 (9x weekly from BRS)
Dubrovnik 3 (4x weekly from BRS, EZY only)
Copenhagen 2 (8x weekly from BRS)
Corfu 2 (4x weekly from BRS)
Ibiza 1 (7x weekly from BRS)

 

[Jerry]

Fingers crossed we'll see at least Palma de Mallorca and Barcelona added in Summer 2026 and would be amazing if an Italian route was added as well!
If a route like Madrid was to return or CWL was to attract a route like Copenhagen personally I'd prefer to see Iberia come back and SAS operate Copenhagen as that would give more onward connectivity.

 

[Jerry]

Just to add to this looking at the list on the other site and Ryanair has 2 1 aircraft bases. Ibiza and Chania, Bournemouth was also 1 based for quite a while as well so I don't think it's in the realm of impossibility that Cardiff couldn't become a 1 aircraft base either would probably need a very good deal for Ryanair but not impossible.

 

[Jerry]

SeanM is teasing that Easyjet are going to launch their 23rd UK airport. I know there's more chance of hell freezing over than it being Cardiff but I can't just not hope it will be! 🤣

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914714774400622879

 

[Samdorob]

SeanM is teasing that Easyjet are going to launch their 23rd UK airport. I know there's more chance of hell freezing over than it being Cardiff but I can't just not hope it will be! 🤣

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914714774400622879

Geneva would work for a winter route. It seems very popular at Bristol, and in theory could compete as a ski destination after a successful Chambery launch.

If it was EZY at Cardiff then I wouldn’t rule out Paris. They did eventually launch the route from SOU after all.

We won’t have long to wait as announcements from Sean can come as quick as a few hours after a teaser. A day or two at worst.

 

[Jerry]

Geneva would work for a winter route

Putting my Mr optimistic hat on considering CWL is on a roll with Ski routes Geneva could be an option?

If it was EZY at Cardiff then I wouldn’t rule out Paris.

Personally I'd say something like Mallorca would be more of a possibility.

 

[geoff]

CWL is mentioned on five different posts on Pprune, as one of the possible favourites for an Easyjet base, but EMA is also fancied by some of the posters. We shall have to wait and see, but EZY are obviously well aware of the number of Welsh passengers that they carry from BRS, and wouldn't want their numbers affected by CWL.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Lets just be clear that Sean's announcement isn't necessarily base, but flights to a UK airport. It could simply be one route.

 

[Samdorob]

Let’s just be clear that Sean's announcement isn't necessarily base, but flights to a UK airport. It could simply be one route.

I think a base is very unlikely at CWL, but an away based route - maybe. Fingers crossed!

Personally I'd say something like Mallorca would be more of a possibility.

I didn’t mention PMI because he mentioned it could start in winter 25. Not sure if that means the flight season rather than actual period, e.g a launch in March.

 

[Jerry]

as one of the possible favourites for an Easyjet base,

Not a base SeanM post was about potentially 1 route.

I didn’t mention PMI because he mentioned it could start in winter 25. Not sure if that means the flight season rather than actual period, e.g a launch in March.

Yes he did. Wild speculation i know but i think if Easyjet were to start a city route from Cardiff in winter then Edinburgh could be an option. It's a route CWL needs volume on and Loganair just seem incapable or unwilling of doing that and potentially the airport may be looking at what Ryanair has done with Dublin and want to replicate that.