Flybe

[CraigW92]

Looks like GCI is in the process of being uploaded on the Flybe booking engine at 2 X weekly with Blue Islands compared with 3 X weekly last year, slightly later start date at the 29th May:

Tuesday's

BE6506 GCI 09:45 - CWL 10:45
BE6507 CWL 11:15 - GCI 12:15

Saturday's

BE6508 GCI 12:35 - CWL 13:35
BE6509 CWL 14:05 - GGI 15:05

 

[Jerry]

With the Q400 being replaced by an E175 i decided to have a look at the schedule for the aircraft in summer 18, i sampled a week in June and will put the departure time from CWL and then it's arrival time back at CWL. This is an updated version of the earlier post done on the 19/10/17.

Monday
E195 no 1. E175 from mid June
EDI 07.00-10.00
GLA 10.50-13.50
JER 14.45-17.05
EDI 17.55-20.55
E195 no2
DUB 07.00-09.35
MXP 10.05-15.00
CDG 15.45-19.15
DUB 19.45-22.20
E175
BHD 06.15-08.55
CDG 09.45-13.05
MUC 14.00-18.45
BHD 19.15-22.05

Tuesday
E195 no 1. E175 from mid June
DUB 07.00-09.35
FCO 10.05-15.55
EDI 17.55-20.55
E195 no 2
BHD 06.15-08.55
CDG 09.45-13.05
FAO 13.55-19.50
DUB 20.20-21.25
E175
EDI 07.00-10.00
VCE 11.10-16.50
BHD 19.15-22.05

Blue Islands non based ATR 72
GCI 09.45-12.15
Wednesday
E195 no 1. E175 from mid June.
BHD 06.15-08.55
CDG 09.45-13.05
VRN 14.05-19.15
DUB 19.45-22.20
E195 no 2.
DUB 07.00-09.35
FAO 10.05-16.00
EDI 17.55-20.55
E175
EDI 07.00-10.00
GLA 10.50-13.50
????????????????
BHD 19.15-22.05

Thursday
E195 no 1
DUB 07.00-09.35
FAO 10.05-1600
ORK 16.55-19.50
DUB 20.20-22.55
E195 no 2. E175 from mid June
EDI 07.00-10.00
GLA 10.50-13.50
DUB 14.25-17.00
EDI 17.55-20.55
E175
BHD 06.15-08.55
CDG 09.45-13.05
TXL 13.55-18.45
BHD 19.15-22.05

Friday
E195 no 1. E175 from June
EDI 07.00-10.00
GLA 10.50-13.50
DUB 14.30-17.05
JER 17.35-20.10
DUB 20.45-23.20
E195 no 2
DUB 07.00-09.35
MXP 10.05-15.00
CDG 15.45-19.15
EDI 19.45-22.45
E175
BHD 06.15-08.55
CDG 09.45-13.05
MUC 14.00-18.45
BHD 19.15-22.05

Saturday
E195 no 1
FCO 07.10-13.05
FAO 13.55-19.50
E195 no 2. E175 from mid June
VCE 06.30-11.40
JER 12.30-14.50
VRN 15.20-20.35
E175
DUB 06.55-09.30
CDG 10.15-13.35
DUS 15.00-18.45
Blue Islands non based ATR 72
GCI 12.35-15.05
Non based Q400
EDI 16.10-19.25


Sunday
E195 no 1. E175 from mid June.
MXP 07.15-12.10
EDI 12.40-15.40
CDG 16.20-19.50
EDI 20.20-23.20
E195 no 2
???????????
CDG 09.45-13.15
DUB 13.45-16.20
FAO 17.00-22.55
E175
TXL 07.15-12.00
ORK 12.40-15.15
DUB 15.55-18.50
BHD 19.20-22.05
Edited 3/12/17

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

How does this schedule compare to Summer 2017? I was just wondering so I can work out the difference in the capacity available.

Of course some routes last year were far from full so even though capacity available maybe down, overall load factor across the base may actually improve.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

How does this schedule compare to Summer 2017? I was just wondering so I can work out the difference in the capacity available.

Of course some routes last year were far from full so even though capacity available maybe down, overall load factor across the base may actually improve.

With a 175 replacing one of the 195s from June I'd have thought that overall base load factor was bound to improve.

 

[Jerry]

Comparison of Summer 2017 routes with Summer 2018 (Summer 18 after mid June)

2017 London City 11 weekly, 11 weekly Q400 flights
2018 London City 0 weekly
minus 11 weekly flights

2017 Edinburgh 12 weekly, 12 weekly E195 flights
2018 Edinburgh 12 weekly, 2 weekly E195, 9 weekly E175, 1 weekly Q400 flights
no change

2017 Dublin 13 weekly 9 weekly E195, 4 weekly Q400 flights
2018 Dublin 15 weekly 8 weekly E195, 7 weekly E175 flights
plus 2 weekly flights

2017 Paris CDG 7 weekly, 7 weekly E195 flights
2018 Paris CDG 10 weekly, 3 weekly E195, 7 weekly E175 flights
plus 3 weekly flights

2017 Belfast City 7 weekly, 7 weekly Q400 flights
2018 Belfast City 11 weekly, 1 weekly E195, 10 weekly E175 flights
plus 4 weekly flights

2017 Faro 4 weekly, 4 weekly E195 flights
2018 Faro 5 weekly, 5 weekly E195 flights
plus 1 weekly flight

2017 Glasgow 4 weekly, 4 weekly Q400 flights
2018 Glasgow 4 weekly, 4 weekly E175 flights
no change

2017 Milan MXP 4 weekly, 4 weekly E195 flights
2018 Milan MXP 3 weekly, 2 weekly E195, 1 weekly E175 flights
minus 1 weekly flight

2017 Guernsey 3 weekly, 3 weekly ATR 72
2018 Guernsey 2 weekly, 2 weekly ATR 72
minus 1 weekly flight

2017 Jersey 3 weekly, 2 weekly E195, 1 weekly Q400
2018 Jersey 3 weekly, 3 weekly E175 flights
no change

2017 Munich 3 weekly, 3 weekly E195 flights
2018 Munich 2 weekly, 2 weekly E175 flights
minus 1 weekly flight

2017 Berlin TXL 3 weekly, 3 weekly E195 flights
2018 Berlin TXL 2 weekly, 2 weekly E175 flights
minus 1 weekly flight

2017 Rome FCO 2 weekly, 2 weekly E195 flights
2018 Rome FCO 2 weekly, 1 weekly E195, 1 weekly E175 flight
no change

2017 Verona 2 weekly, 2 weekly E195 flights
2018 Verona 2 weekly, 2 weekly E175 flights
no change

2017 Cork 2 weekly, 2 weekly E195 flights
2018 Cork 2 weekly, 1 weekly E195, 1 weekly E175 flight
no change

2017 Dusseldorf 1 weekly, 1 weekly Q400 flight
2018 Dusseldorf 1 weekly, 1 weekly E175 flight
no change

2018 Venice 2 weekly, 2 weekly E175 flights
NEW route.

 

[Jerry]

On Wednesday's there is a 4 hour and 55 minutes gap for 1 of the E175s from when it returns from Glasgow at 13.50 and departs to Belfast at 19.15. So potential there for a new route or an extra rotation on a current route.
If it was a new route then i'd opt for either Bordeaux, Rennes or maybe somewhere like Hamburg, not sure if there would be the flying time for as far as say Geneva if they wanted to do that year round.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

With a 175 replacing one of the 195s from June I'd have thought that overall base load factor was bound to improve.

Sorry I didn't explain myself clearly earlier. I was trying to compare how much capacity was available for Summer 2018 compared to Summer 2017.

ATR-72 - 66 seats
Dash8-Q400 - 78 seats
Embraer E175 - 88 seats
Embraer E195 - 118 seats

I imagine overall the maximum capacity available will be down on Summer 2017 however there was plenty of room for growth on many of the routes, and therefore if load factors improve then it will be likely that overall passenger numbers would be up for Flybe next year despite overall capacity being down.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

On Wednesday's there is a 4 hour and 55 minutes gap for 1 of the E175s from when it returns from Glasgow at 13.50 and departs to Belfast at 19.15. So potential there for a new route or an extra rotation on a current route.
If it was a new route then i'd opt for either Bordeaux, Rennes or maybe somewhere like Hamburg, not sure if there would be the flying time for as far as say Geneva if they wanted to do that year round.

Of those destinations I'd have thought that Geneva was the best bet if it could be fitted in. Scope for TUI Lakes & Mountains etc seats in summer as well as independent travel.

 

[Severn]

Looking at the Summer 18 Flybe schedule I can see that once the second E175 replaces the E195 (making it 1xE195 and 2xE175s based at CWL), it will mean there will be 900 seats less (departing) CWL per week in Summer 18 than Summer 17. There will also be 3x less flights per week.

Below attempts to show the weekly number of departures and seats to each Flybe destination from CWL in Summer 18 and shows the comparison to Summer 17.

TOTAL: 78 weekly departures (-3 from 2017) / 7530 weekly seats (-900 from 2017)
Key:
Airport: Weekly departures from CWL in 2018 (change from 2017) / Weekly departing seats from CWL in 2018 (change from 2017)
DUB: 14 (+1) / 1472 (+98)
EDI: 13 (+1) / 1194 (-222)
BHD: 11 (+4) / 998 (+452)
CDG: 10 (+3) / 1000 (+174)
FAO: 5 (+1) / 590 (+118)
GLA: 4 (0) / 352 (-120)
JER: 3 (0) / 264 (-38)
MXP: 3 (-1) / 324 (-148)
FCO: 2 (0) / 206 (-30)
GCI: 2 (-1) / 132 (-66)
MUC: 2 (-1) / 176 (-178)
ORK: 2 (0) / 206 (-30)
TXL: 2 (-1) / 176 (-178)
VCE: 2 (+2) / 176 (+176)
VRN: 2 (0) / 176 (-60)
DUS: 1 (0) / 88 (+10)
LCY: 0 (-11) / 0 (-858)

 

[Jerry]

Just had a look at Geneva and the block time from departing CWL till returning to CWL is 4 hours 30 minutes. The gap is 5 hours 25 mins (got it wrong originally i believe) if you take away the turnaround times at CWL then the block available is 4 hours 15 minutes. To fit in Geneva they'd need to push BHD back by 15 minutes.

I also noticed with Belfast there is no Saturday flight so maybe they'll end up using a BHD based Q400 to fill it?

The reduction in seats is actually a positive as many of them weren't being sold. I think it's been noticeable for a while that for most of the Flybe routes at CWL the E195s are to big. Generally only Rome Verona and Faro tend to fill the aircraft. By putting the more suitable E175 on the other routes Flybe's costs should come down making the base more profitable for them.
They have more E175s arriving in 2019 so hopefully 1 will be earmarked for CWL and they can continue to add more frequency to the routes that are making money and continue to add new routes as well.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Thanks for the info Severn.

When you look at a capacity reduction of 900 seats per week it looks quite concerning until you actually look into it.

If you looked at London City alone using the stats for September 2017 average pax loads were 26 per flight from a capacity of 78 per flight. (286 per week/maximum capacity of 858).

Please see below average pax load per flight for the Flybe routes in Summer 2017

Belfast City - 63
Berlin Tegel - 73
Cork - 66
Dublin - 74
Edinburgh - 83
Glasgow - 69
Jersey - 67
London City - 26
Milan MXP - 85
Munich - 83
Paris CDG - 93
Rome FCO - 104
Verona - 93

NOTE: Faro is unknown as route shared with Ryanair

When you look at the routes it is only Rome, Paris, Verona and probably Faro which has an average load over the 88 seat Embraer 175.

Just checked the following, he following;

DUB is 15 per week iso 14 per week

 

[Jerry]

It's noticeable that even when the base becomes 1 E195 and 2 E175 that Faro is 5 weekly on the 195 so Flybe must be confident of filling the aircraft on that route. Verona will be just on an E175 but with Venice starting the loads for that might well go down a bit anyway as they are pretty close together and VRN could've been used by many for access to Venice. I have heard also that many use the Rome flight for access to Naples as well. So if Naples is the next Italian destination then Flybe may have to take that into account with Rome.
It will be interesting to see what they fill the Wednesday gap with and also thinking longer term what winter 2018 will look like with 3 jets based.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

They have more E175s arriving in 2019 so hopefully 1 will be earmarked for CWL and they can continue to add more frequency to the routes that are making money and continue to add new routes as well.

I take it these are to replace the remaining 195s in the fleet because Flybe is reportedly reducing its overall fleet size from 85 to 70 aircraft over the next three years.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2017/11/10/flybe-reduces-size-of-fleet/

 

[Jerry]

I take it these are to replace the remaining 195s in the fleet because Flybe is reportedly reducing its overall fleet size from 85 to 70 aircraft over the next three years.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2017/11/10/flybe-reduces-size-of-fleet/

I thought they were leftovers from when Flybe swapped orders with Republic Airline and took their Q400s and they took the E175s and essentially cancelled it's remaining E jet orders? I'm not sure strictly they were ever intended as replacements for the E195s.
What will be interesting is any future aircraft orders for Flybe. Would they order more props or possibly look in the long term to phase them out and replace them with jets which seems to be what several airlines are doing. Republic Airline did that, Alaska Horizon are phasing out there Q400s in favour of E175s and Air Baltic have said they are looking to replace their Q400s with jets, Embraer or possibly C series have been mentioned i believe.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/a...ake-50-e-175s-as-q400s-head-for-flybe-403783/

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Flybe got to where they are now by using the economics of the Q400. It is the Embraer deal which got them into a slight bit of trouble.

As the fleet is reduced in size the primary aim is to ensure that the size of the Cardiff Airport base doesn't get reduced. If amongst all these capacity cuts we manage to have growth in the size of the Cardiff Airport base then that can only be a positive.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Looking at Jethro's Fleet Listings five Q400s are due for disposal next year with four E175s on order. In addition, three E195s are marked to be withdrawn from use.

In the foreseeable future it looks as though the fleet will be a combination of Q400s and E175s in the main. In recent months there have been some mutterings about Flybe being a takeover target but I don't know which airline would see Flybe as a good fit.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe do seem to be commited to CWL and have expanded beyond the original 2 aircraft base and hopefully will keep expanding and adding more aircraft.
If in the long run they get taken over by another airline or airline group then hopefully that commitment will remain.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Flybe do seem to be commited to CWL and have expanded beyond the original 2 aircraft base and hopefully will keep expanding and adding more aircraft.
If in the long run they get taken over by another airline or airline group then hopefully that commitment will remain.

It's certainly a notable turnaround in Flybe'e relationship with CWL. From early 2014 they axed their CWL-GLA and CWL-CDG with CWL-EDI switching to Loganair, leaving only the BHD and JER routes with Flybe. The airport acted swiftly and was soon able to announce that CityJet would take over the the GLA and Paris routes (to ORY instead of CDG) as well as operating to EDI and JER. Loganair then axed their own plan to serve EDI.

A year later Flybe and CWL announced that they had reached an agreement covering the next ten years whereby the airline would base two E195s at the airport to serve a greatly expanded network. CityJet were perhaps understandably disappointed at the new arrangement, partly perhaps because they felt they had come to the rescue after Flybe had abandoned some of its CWL routes only to be subsequently rebuffed when the airport came to an agreement with Flybe to increase its presence substantially only a year after it had been reduced. They would know though that there is little if any sentiment in business.

Flybe's passenger numbers at the airport have certainly improved since the base opened, not least on the GLA and EDI when in the previous incarnation average loads on those routes were typically in the 40-50 range. What we don't know is the yield and how much the yield is indebted to the arrangement the airline has with the airport, or how long that will continue. Rumours have surfaced in the news media about amounts involved but that is no more than speculation.

 

[Red Flyer]

Rumours have surfaced in the news media about amounts involved but that is no more than speculation.
TLY your last sentence probably hits the nail on the head but until they make it public the following will always intrigue me.
Airline returns little more than 15 months after leaving citing unprofitable routes on economical DH8.
On its return the airline more than doubles its route network with uneconomical and mothballed 195.
Another airline leaves talking about unfair subsidies.
Major LCC goes head to head on possibly its most lucrative route without a murmur of complaint.
Some fares are actually lower than when they have a sale.

 

[Jerry]

Well so far whatever the financial deal between the airport and Flybe is it seems to have worked for both. Flybe found a home for 2 unwanted aircraft and the airport has got a substantial route network and has increased the amount of people using it. The base is now 3 aircraft so Flybe must be happy with it.
Incentives and special rates happen in all industries. Personally I'd be surprised if say Easyjet didn't have some sort of incentive/special rate at BRS or TUI got one to reintroduce and then continue to expand the long haul routes at BRS. Or Jet2 at STN and BHX to launch those bases. Same with Qatar Airways at CWL as well. In the end the airport has to use everything available incentive it has to attract and keep airlines and get them to expand at CWL become the airport everyone wants it to be.
As for Flybe's pricing it changes everyday. I've seen some prices on Faro and they have been quite high. Sometimes over £150 one way so that and the fact that they added a weekly flight may well suggest they are doing well on the route despite Ryanairs presence. I also wonder if Ryaniar may have helped them rather than hinder them.