Flybe

[TheLocalYokel]

June 2015

The CAA stats have been published today for the first month of the new Flybe network, albeit it's not fully up and running yet as the second E 195 will not arrive until the end of August.

The loads seem quite satisfactory generally given it's the first month.

Jersey saw a load factor of 53% (average load 63) whilst Glasgow and Paris CDG had 50% load factors (ave load 59). CityJet operated its last month from CWL to Paris Orly and saw an average load of 31 on this route so Paris taken as a city enjoyed a very good month.

Cork was 36% (ave load 43) and Milan MXP just under 30% (ave load 35)

Dusseldorf continued the Saturday service of previous summers with an average load of 38 which is around 50% load factor on the Q 400 used on this route.

Edinburgh and Dublin were against other airlines so it's not possible to ascertain the Flybe loads, although both routes saw substantial increases in passenger numbers.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

July 2015

A quick look at some of the Flybe routes suggests that loads are very promising indeed on many with Milan (MXP) in particular surprising me - CAA stats.

I've done this quickly so there might be the odd error and I've assumed that the timetable is still as announced at the beginning of the season.

Paris Cdg 3378 passengers, average load 93.8, load factor just under 79.5%.

Cork 572, 71.5, 60.5%

Edinburgh 5634, 90.9, 77%

Faro 2030, 78.1, 66.2%

Glasgow 2522, 70, 59.4%

Milan (MXP) 598, 74.8, 63.4%

All the above were on the 118-seat E 195.

Dusseldorf 359, 44.9, 57.6% (Q 400) - 8% fewer passengers than in July 2014

Belfast City 4032, 65, 83.3% (Q 400) - 1% fewer passengers than in July 2014

Jersey 1917 passengers, average load 73.7. I didn't have time to calculate the average load as this route sees a mix of aircraft: E 195 on Mondays and Fridays and Q 400 on Saturdays.

Dublin competes with EIR so I couldn't establish the Flybe numbers. However, overall passenger numbers rose from 6289 in July 2014 to 9262 in July this year so Flybe must have had a significant effect.

All in all a very satisfactory situation.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Summer 2016

A poster on another well known aviation forum is saying that Flybe is recruiting cabin staff at CWL for next spring which suggests an expansion might be on the cards - currently two based E 195s, with BHD, DUS and one JER operated by non-based Q400s.

This has released the vivid imagination of spotters on that site with all sorts of suggestions, most of which Flybe don't even fly to from anywhere, with others only reached by switching to a partner airline en route such as Air France at CDG.

Unless CWL is to be the vanguard for new routes for the airline it's likely that any new routes will come from the established Flybe route network.

 

[Em0866]

Hi Local
I have seen these posts but I have also checked Flybe's website. I don't know if it's a typo but it does say for the cabin crew based at Cardiff would be from spring 2015....it also says the same for cabin crew based in Glasgow. The recruitment for cabin crew in Aberdeen doesn't specify a date.

IF this is from spring 2016 then maybe they are just pooling their cabin crew for reasons other than more destinations. I really can't imagine that Flybe would be increasing their routes so soon. The only way we know is wait and see what happens.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thanks E m. I took the post from the other website at face value that the new staff would be required from next spring. That may yet be the case. As you say, we will have to wait to see what happens.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The second based E 195 is due in over the weekend. That will improve the situation considerably and move the passenger numbers further north. :good:

 

[Em0866]

These are, potentially, exciting times for Cardiff. There is only one way for pax figures to go, but I can't help feel that a second based aircraft by Flybe is a tad too soon. Maybe this additional aircraft would have been better to be placed at CWL from the end of March 2016 in readiness for the summer season next year...at least it would have given the routes they currently serve some more time to become established. I hope I am wrong, but this is in the back of my mind. As I always say though, let's see how this plays out.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It does seem that Flybe returned to CWL (having said just a year beforehand that most of their routes there were untenable) thanks to generous assistance from the Wales Assembly Government. It's likely therefore that the increased presence from the end of this month and through the winter is based on this help.

If so it's a good opportunity for the routes and increased frequencies on many of them to become well known amongst potential customers with the safety belt of not having to worry too much about 'normal' yield paths.

The airline clearly cannot be supported in this way for ever and anything that helps to build a network that is self-supporting is all to the good.

The E195 is too big for some of the routes but not for others, so unless there is to be a mixed base (with all the personnel and operational problems that can bring with a two-aircraft base) leaning towards the larger aircraft is seen as the better option.

 

[Em0866]

Don't Flybe have a few E175s? Maybe it would have been better to utilise that aircraft on the not so good performing routes? Anyway, I hope that the extra aircraft based there will draw in more pax. With coverage on the BBC Wales news website and on walesonline too then it is getting the message out to those who may have missed the various ad campaings that have been everwhere. Here's wishing success to Flybe and to CWL too!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Flybe does have some E175s. Several 195s were stored but returned to service, partly to accommodate the CWL base. I thought that Flybe had intended phasing out its 195s to concentrate on Q400s (mainly) and E175s. There are orders pending for the Q400 and E175 but none for the E195.

In time it may be that CWL will become a 175 base. Were that to happen it's possible that some routes such as EDI and GLA might see additional frequencies where the increased flexibility would be welcomed by passengers, and that routes not thought to be viable for 118 seats might appear if smaller aircraft are used.

I've said for many years that I believe that Flybe operates the right sort of size aircraft for CWL on many potential routes.

I don't have the technical knowledge to be able to discuss the economics of operating the 175 versus the 195. The latter is heavier and presumably burns more fuel. Its 118 seats require an additional cabin attendant compared with the 175's 88 seats.

I would imagine that for pilots the 175 and 195 represent a common type for their licences.

Perhaps someone with technical knowledge can confirm or correct the above.

http://www.jethros.org.uk/fleets/fleet_ ... /flybe.htm

 

[Em0866]

That's interesting. Maybe this is what they intend on doing in getting more of the 175s to replace the 195s. I am no expert though, but for those routes that aren't doing as well the 175 would be better and easier to fill. I think a jet aircraft is more appealing to pax than a prop, especially on the longer routes. We'll just have to wait and see what happens, although it is interesting to speculate.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

September 2015

This is the first month of the two-aircraft (118-seat E195) base and the CAA stats show the following numbers:

Glasgow 2971 passengers, ave load, 67.5, load factor 57.2%

Edinburgh 9106, 81.3, 68.9%

Cork 1079, 59.9, 50.8%

Munich 2502, 50.5%

Milan Malpensa 1875, 72.1, 61.1%

Paris Cdg 4962, 82.7, 70.1%

Faro 2562, 106.8, 90.5%

Jersey 1040, 65, 66.3%*

Dusseldorf 1267, 37.3, 34.3%**

* 2 JER rotations per week, one a Q400 the other an E195
** 4 DUS rotations per week with the Sat one a Q400; remainder E195

Belfast City 3630, 60.5, 77.6%***

*** BHD is a longstanding daily route on the Q400

Early days but the numbers are a bit mixed with perhaps one or two disappointments such as DUS and ORK.

Although not a big load factor MXP looks pretty good on actual numbers as does MUC, given that these are 3 x weekly and 5 x weekly respectively.

EDI is perhaps a bit down on what might have been hoped for as is GLA, although the latter is single daily and only 5 x weekly at that.

FAO unsurprisingly is now in the 90% bracket after a more cautious start to the summer. CDG is roughly what I would have expected and JER isn't bad at all.

 

[Em0866]

These are interesting stats. The lower figures, given the additional aircraft base from the beginning of the month, may well improve once the routes become more established.. I hope that Flybe do well at CWL and I am sure that even the lower load routes will do better going through the winter and into summer next year. FAO has really taken off but it should not be so much of a surprise given that there was a real need for an increase in this route (beyond the charter airlines)

 

[TheLocalYokel]

These are interesting stats. The lower figures, given the additional aircraft base from the beginning of the month, may well improve once the routes become more established.. I hope that Flybe do well at CWL and I am sure that even the lower load routes will do better going through the winter and into summer next year. FAO has really taken off but it should not be so much of a surprise given that there was a real need for an increase in this route (beyond the charter airlines)

The winter might not see much growth on many of the routes but next summer will, hopefully, see a strengthening of the airline's position at CWL as people become more and more aware of what it has to offer.

Incidentally, the JER load factor should have been 51%. I hadn't realised until I checked later that the first two Saturdays of the month saw an additional rotation on both these days.

 

[Em0866]

Yes the winter won't see as much growth but it will be an improvement on last winter. As you say the summer for next year will see a continued growth on this summer. By then a lot more people will know of the routes and more likely to choose CWL than other airports...not necessarily BRS

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I calculated that the Flybe presence brought in around another 14,500 passengers compared with September 2014. That's taking into account new routes such as Milan and Munich and the comparative figures for the likes of Edinburgh, Glasgow, Jersey and Paris (Orly last year) which were flown by CityJet then.

It doesn't count Dublin though because of course it's not possible to ascertain Flybe's share of the route that's also operated by Aer Lingus Regional (Stobart).

DUB would have been distorted anyway because in September it includes all the passengers for the first Ireland world cup match at the Millennium.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Winter 2015-2016

Looking to the winter schedule that starts at the end of this month there will be a slight reduction in the overall number of weekly flights compared with the summer just ending

Edinburgh reduces from 13 weekly to 12 weekly (only one Sunday rotation).
Munich reduces from 5 weekly to 3 weekly
Faro reduces from 3 weekly to 2 weekly

This will mean 51 weekly rotations operated by the based E195s against 55 in the summer - some flights have their days altered and some have different timings.

However, from the middle of December there will be weekly Saturday rotations to both Geneva and Chambery for the ski season taking the weekly total to 53.

 

[Em0866]

This is interesting. I was expecting them to reduce flights a lot more than this, so only a slight reduction. It will be better than last winter though so all good.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

This is interesting. I was expecting them to reduce flights a lot more than this, so only a slight reduction. It will be better than last winter though so all good.

It's encouraging and some of the fares seem to have risen slightly which in a perverse sort of way is not a bad thing. It means that a bit less reliance will be placed on the Assembly's 'subsidy' and it can also be taken as a sign that Flybe has the confidence to do it. The quicker the routes become self-sustaining the better which will also encourage Flybe and perhaps others to look at other options.

This is the timetable for the winter so far as the based E195s are concerned. I've shown the arrival times at CWL. All flights are 'out and backers'. The daily BHD will continue with a non-based Q400.

Monday

0935 EDI
0935 DUB
1345 DUS
1445 MUC
1730 GLA
1930 CDG
2125 EDI
2235 DUB

Tuesday

0935 EDI
0935 DUB
1245 ORK
1500 MXP
1730 GLA
1930 CDG
2125 EDI
2235 DUB

Wednesday

0935 EDI
0935 DUB
1345 DUS
1445 MUC
1730 GLA
1930 CDG
2125 EDI
2235 DUB

Thursday

0935 EDI
0935 DUB
1345 DUS
1525 FAO
1730 GLA
1930 CDG
2125 EDI
2235 DUB

Friday

0935 EDI
0935 DUB
1245 ORK
1500 MXP
1730 JER
1930 CDG
2125 EDI
2235 DUB

Saturday

0935 DUB
1125 MUC
1300 EDI
1655 CDG
1620 GVA*
1815 CMF*

* ski season only

Sunday

1145 FAO
1410 MXP
1525 GLA
1815 JER
1840 CDG
2145 DUB
2200 EDI

Summary

EDI 12 x weekly
DUB 12 x weekly
CDG 7 x weekly
GLA 5 x weekly
MUC 3 x weekly
MXP 3 x weekly
DUS 3 x weekly
FAO 2 x weekly
ORK 2 x weekly
JER 2 x weekly
GVA 1 x weekly in ski season
CMF 1 x weekly in ski season

 

[Em0866]

Yes time to start to pull away from the subsidy and let the routes stand on themselves. I think this could be a winner. There a a large number of flights there, so fingers crossed for more success leading into the summer next year.