Flybe

[Jerry]

Wasn't expecting Rome from Flybe! Wonder if there could be a possible codeshare with Alitalia in the future? Great news!
It is a tight schedule! DUS looks like it's been dropped which is ironic as the Air Berlin codeshare could've boosted it but many of the other bases schedule haven't been released yet. Flybe aren't backing off FAO though i wonder if their partnership with TCX and TOM on that route means they can't?
If there is too be an LCY route then i would've thought that any announcement would be at the end of October early November? Maybe GLA will be released then or it's been scheduled for a GLA based aircraft?

 

[Jerry]

July CAA Statistics for Flybe routes.
Belfast ???
Edinburgh 8494 Average pax 81 LF 68%
Glasgow 4081 Average pax 78 LF 66%
Jersey 1976 Average pax 70 LF 59%
Paris 4906 Average pax 79 LF 67%
Lyon 179 Average pax 90 LF 76%
Dusseldorf 534 Average pax 53 LF 68%
Munich 2110 Average pax 62 LF 52%
Cork 1256 Average pax 70 LF 59%
Dublin 10080 (split between 2 airlines)
Milan 3391 Average pax 94 LF 80%
Verona 882 Average pax 88 LF 74%
Faro 3530 Average pax 98 LF 83%

 

[superking]

The new Berlin route starts today! 15.00 departure.

Edit at 20.30.
It didn't depart till 17.30 not sure why it was late. Weather related maybe?

I would say its slots that held it up.

 

[Jerry]

Just seen a reply to a question about LCY, GLA and BHD on the Cardiff Airport twitter site and it said this is only phase 1 of the Flybe release and there is more to come!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Rome is excellent news and will do well for sure. I would expect it to increase in frequency in time.

Signs are good that there may be a based Q400 at CWL to operate LCY and possibly GLA and BHD. If LCY and GLA both went 2 x daily it might be tight to fit in BHD as well but it could be done. However, BHD might remain the province of the BHD-based aircraft unless a CWL-based aircraft was used to double the existing daily frequencies.

 

[Jerry]

Rome is excellent news and will do well for sure. I would expect it to increase in frequency in time.

Signs are good that there may be a based Q400 at CWL to operate LCY and possibly GLA and BHD. If LCY and GLA both went 2 x daily it might be tight to fit in BHD as well but it could be done. However, BHD might remain the province of the BHD-based aircraft unless a CWL-based aircraft was used to double the existing daily frequencies.

On another forum a poster said there was a strong rumour from a good source for a based Q400 for CWL but equally GLA could be done by a GLA based aircraft. BHD will probably be a BHD based aircraft.
Only other i could think of is if they overnight a BHD aircraft to do a morning rotation to CWL and then have the aircraft return to BHD and another return in the evening to do a LCY rotation.
Hopefully phase 2 of the announcement will involve the basing of a Q400!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

If LCY does become permanent from next year it will be interesting to see how they use the aircraft throughout the day.

 

[Jerry]

Only guessing but it could have a morning LCY rotation then GLA then possibly do say ORK/DUS/JER/new route/extra DUB or EDI then evening LCY rotation then possibly a late night CDG/new route? If the morning LCY is early enough say 07.00 then they could get 5 rotations a day from the aircraft.

 

[Seasider]

Only guessing but it could have a morning LCY rotation then GLA then possibly do say ORK/DUS/JER/new route/extra DUB or EDI then evening LCY rotation then possibly a late night CDG/new route? If the morning LCY is early enough say 07.00 then they could get 5 rotations a day from the aircraft.

That's a bit ambitious.

 

[Seasider]

Only guessing but it could have a morning LCY rotation then GLA then possibly do say ORK/DUS/JER/new route/extra DUB or EDI then evening LCY rotation then possibly a late night CDG/new route? If the morning LCY is early enough say 07.00 then they could get 5 rotations a day from the aircraft.

That's a bit ambitious.

 

[Jerry]

That's a bit ambitious.

Well they usually get 4 rotations a day sometimes 5 out of the E195s.

 

[Jerry]

Considering Flybe will be launching FCO in S17 and i for one didn't expect them to be flying that route i thought it would be more Vueling who would then i'm wondering what curve balls they could throw next? Would they consider Prague? Vienna? Or Venice? All 3 cities have their merits as tourist destinations and buisness destinations and Venice is a popular cruise line port. Anyone know if Athens is within E195 range?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

London City route

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-37671714

This route will continue beyond the re-opening of the Severn Tunnel 'while demand exists', according to this linked report.

It seems a sensible move to gauge take-up in the face of direct rail competition.

 

[superking]

lets hope it works out ok. it sure is a bold move from flybe. it might be one of those routes that work. stranger things happen.

 

[Jerry]

Great news and a nice surprise from Flybe! They must think the route can work to keep it going.
It'll be 2 daily Monday to Friday CWL-LCY 08.00-09.15 LCY-CWL 09.45-10.45 CWL-LCY 16.10-17.25 LCY-CWL 17.55-18.55. Saturday CWL-LCY 09.35-10.50 LCY-CWL 11.20-12.20 Sunday CWL-LCY 16.10-17.25 LCY-CWL 17.55-18.55.
Wonder what the plane will do during the early afternoon gap? Could they start a new route to fill it in?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Looking at the current schedule on CWL-LCY, do they not have to use two sets of crew each day? The first departure is at 0800 and the last inbound comes in at 2110, over 13 hours. I presume they switch crews at some point during the day at LCY otherwise it would be a very expensive way of doing things.

The new schedule would presumably permit one crew to operate both rotations if desired - just under eleven hours which means there is a lot of downtime in the afternoon (over five hours).

Fitting something else in would seem to be sensible with one caveat. If the LCY route is found not to be viable after the Severn Tunnel re-opens would Flybe want to be stuck with a route to somewhere else in the middle of the day?

They may wait until they are satisfied that the LCY route can continue successfully in opposition to the direct train. That still leaves a crew with five hours to twiddle their thumbs.

 

[CraigW92]

There's a few options avaliable to BE on this, firstly it's great that it's having an extended stay, very good service.

08:00
10:45

GAP

16:10
18:55

With a quite hefty amount of time spare in between flights, there is scope for a new route to be added ( not immediately ) or a juggle around of current schedules.

I fully expect BHD to remain one daily when the BHD base is announced, to up this to 2 X daily would need a morning flight and and evening flight, where a second flight could compromise the yield on the route.

It is worth noting that on the current scheme of things, happened on my LCY afternoon flight the BHD and LCY flights swap around quite often ( if not the aircraft then the crews( for e.g

1 CWL- LCY- CWL - BHD
2: BHD- CWL- LCY- CWL

I can't currently see any changes for the BHD flights so seemingly things will stay as they are with regards to the crews changing between the two for the time being .

GLA looks to be the most likely candidate unless it's operated from a GLA based frame, a departure time of around 11:20 would allow a weekday service to remain

The other option which I think is less likely but is one I would like to see is AMS, while KL have done extremely well on the route (over 12,000 on current PAX numbers), the fares to AMS are quite extortionate unless your travelling onwards which I've always found pretty reasonable, you only have to look at how AMS has grown and developed with healthy competition from EZY and only the other day I've found my fathers business has stopped using CWL for BRS due to the simple fact of price.

Fully expect developments in the second release of flights, with GUR of course to be announced.

 

[Jerry]

Looking at the current schedule on CWL-LCY, do they not have to use two sets of crew each day? The first departure is at 0800 and the last inbound comes in at 2110, over 13 hours. I presume they switch crews at some point during the day at LCY otherwise it would be a very expensive way of doing things.

I believe that after the morning rotation the aircraft flies CWL-BHD while the aircraft flying BHD-CWL takes over and then overnights and I believe they'll continue doing that and if it stays for S17 then we could see 2 LCY a day and 2 BHD a day to rotate the crews through the Belfast base. Could then mean for Flybe they won't have to recruit Cardiff based Q400 crews.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Thank you for that, Jerry.

 

[Jerry]

The other option which I think is less likely but is one I would like to see is AMS, while KL have done extremely well on the route (over 12,000 on current PAX numbers), the fares to AMS are quite extortionate unless your travelling onwards which I've always found pretty reasonable, you only have to look at how AMS has grown and developed with healthy competition from EZY and only the other day I've found my fathers business has stopped using CWL for BRS due to the simple fact of price

AMS would be brilliant especially a flight around 13.00 as there is an 8 hour wait between flights! If AMS was in the afternoon and BHD wasn't changed then GLA would probably be moved to the night.
Hopefully they'll recruit CWL based crews in the long term.