Route Development


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Foxlimayankee

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What's not been mentioned is the capacity that TCX used to supply, 3 aircraft at BRS and 1 at CWL, which in terms of package holiday capacity, hasnt fully been replaced.
There are a huge amount of Welsh passengers using BRS, even on routes already available at CWL. What Jet2 will do is bring prices down and encourage more of those Welsh passengers to use CWL. TUI now have a captive market for Package holidays in South Wales, along with EZY on a smaller scale at BRS with their latest offering.
Prices will go up at both CWL and BRS but a big reason why so many welsh use BRS is price, the same TUI holidays are often cheaper at BRS.
It was reported that over 1m Welsh use BRS, granted on number of routes not served from CWL, but theres also a lot of leakage from Wales to BHX and LON.
I also wouldnt be surprised if people from the Southwest would use Jet2 at CWL if it were to ever happen.
Jet2 seem to have a good following and I know a number of people who will specifically travel to BHX or even MAN to use them.
 

TheLocalYokel

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In its planning submission BRS reckons it would reach 12 mppa by around 2026. How would it do it?

From its current level of just under 9 mppa it would take an average growth rate of around 430,000 passengers each year to reach 12 mppa by the end of 2026. The last five years have seen an average growth rate of just over 520,000 passengers each year. That was achieved overwhelmingly through existing airline customers. Could that sort of growth, or nearly so, continue to 12 mppa without further substantial help from other airlines, especially in the absence of Thomas Cook that was contributing over 500,000 passengers a year?

If not and someone like Jet pitched up in a significant manner how would that affect the likes of TUI and easyJet with their new Holidays venture? Severn made a similar point about CWL and TUI vis-a-vis Jet2.

About four years ago there were all sorts of stories on aviation websites that Jet 2 was to open three new UK bases. From the descriptions many people predicted that they were BHX, STN and BRS. We know that the first two were correct and have become huge success stories for both the airports and the airline. Which airport was the third is still not known because a third base was never opened. Was it BRS? If so what happened? Did the almost instant success of BHX and STN lead to Jet2 dropping or postponing any BRS plans it might have had in order to build immediately on BHX and STN, or were there other reasons if BRS was really in the frame at that time? Only certain people in Jet2 would know.

One thing is certain. If BRS is allowed to grow to 12 mppa it will have to find airlines to provide the means, whether exisiting or new ones alongside existing ones. The generally accepted statistic is that the South West loses 6-8 million passengers a year to the London airports, mainly LHR. Not all will be from the immediate BRS catchment (ie the West Country) but given that the Bristol region provides around 25% of the GDP for the entire 5 million-plus population of the Government Region of the South West it can be safely assumed that a large proportion does come from the West Country. Many will use the massive long-haul network from LHR that will never be viable from BRS, but it seems that a significant number also use London for routes that are flown from BRS but not in sufficient frequency or at times that suit. This is obviously one market sector that BRS could seek to improve, provided airlines can make improved frequencies sufficiently profitable.

I think that it might transpire that BRS growth over the next few years will not be as robust as the numbers needed to reach 12 mppa by 2026. In a number of ways that might be no bad thing. It would allow infrastructure and improved surface connectivity to catch up a bit.

If BRS did manage to keep to its 2026 forecast (always assuming planning constraints allow), by around 2024 it would be seeking to have its 12 mppa cap raised. I'm not sure how that would be received by many people in the region, even some who are supporters of BRS expansion. So perhaps a slowdown in growth might be better for all concerned.

It has to be said that for an airport occupying such a small and unpromising site, with challenging weather and surface connectiviity and situated on the 'wrong' side of the city it serves, its performance has been remarkable over the past quarter of a century. It shows the sort of market that exists and one can speculate how much busier it would be now (assuming politicians allowed it to be) at a bigger and better located site.
 

Jerry

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One thing is certain. If BRS is allowed to grow to 12 mppa it will have to find airlines to
I think for that it will need to look towards BHX as an example and build up it's hub carriers. Emirates, Qatar and PIA are most likely out of the equation but airlines like Air France, Austrian, Iberia, Lufthansa Munich, SAS, Turkish and Swiss all need to be targets for the future but also getting the current hub airlines as well to upgrade flights from E190/CRJ/ATR to 737/A320 family to increase capacity will also be key.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I think for that it will need to look towards BHX as an example and build up it's hub carriers. Emirates, Qatar and PIA are most likely out of the equation but airlines like Air France, Austrian, Iberia, Lufthansa Munich, SAS, Turkish and Swiss all need to be targets for the future but also getting the current hub airlines as well to upgrade flights from E190/CRJ/ATR to 737/A320 family to increase capacity will also be key.
I think all of that is relevant although how much they will be able to achieve remains to be seen.

All through this century BRS has been consistently increasing its passenger throughput using fewer flights, thanks to larger aircraft operating at the airport.

For example the airport's latest annual monitoring report (for 2018) shows that in 2005 the airport handled 5.199 million passengers from 84,000 air transport movements which by 2018 had become 8.697 million passengers from 77,000 air transport movements.

As we are aware, the airport's biggest airline customer easyJet is forever increasing the size of its aircraft with BRS well catered for in this respect. It wasn't so long ago that all the easyJet aircraft at BRS were 156-seat A319s. Now they are mainly 186-seat A320s with a couple of 235-seat A321s. Larger aircraft sometimes mean that frequencies aren't always increased.The BRS management has stated in the past that it is keen to see more frequent flights on some key routes.
 

Cambrian

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I wonder what would have happened if Filton had been allowed to develop as Bristols main airport. Long runway, close to the M4 and M5 and the Paddington to south Wales and the Midlands to south west railway lines. A missed opportunity I think.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I wonder what would have happened if Filton had been allowed to develop as Bristols main airport. Long runway, close to the M4 and M5 and the Paddington to south Wales and the Midlands to south west railway lines. A missed opportunity I think.
On the face of it Filton would have been ideal in many ways, and down the years lots of local people have espoused that view.

Ironically the city council bought the former RAF Lulsgate Bottom airfield in the mid 1950s because their then city airport at Whitchurch on the southern outskirts of the city had become too small and was not capable of development to accommodate the newer types of aircraft coming on stream - a bit of later deja vu with Lulsgate there I think. Incidentally, after WW2 when it was longer required by the RAF the former airfield became a motor racing circuit then home to a glider club before the city council purchased the site.

Stories have appeared in the local press from time to time down the years saying that the council could have used the Filton aerodrome as their airport in return for a peppercorn rent instead of buying Lulsgate. I don’t know the truth of that. Filton was a busy works aerodrome and although the few commercial flights of the 1950s could have been fitted in, the situation might have become more difficult as the number of flights began to increase rapidly from the 1980s onward.

In the mid 1990s BAE applied to turn Filton into a city airport but after a public enquiry the secretary of state rejected the application.

Filton with its larger site, 2,600-metre long runway, lower elevation, better weather, together with the proximity of major motorways and main line railway lines that you mentioned (a branch line Filton-Avonmouth also runs through the site itself), as well as no Green Belt restrictions, certainly had many of the attributes for a decent-sized airport. A major snag though would have been its location close to large built-up areas of population. People living in the villages and small towns around Lulsgate make enough fuss. Imagine the reaction of tens of thousands of residents living cheek by jowl with a Bristol Filton airport.

It’s all history now anyway with much of the old Filton airfield site being turned into huge housing estates.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I don't know for sure, and I'm not to saying it isn't possible, but I can see why Jet2 might rather expand at their current large bases rather than open a new base at CWL/BOH/EXT.

Apart from the odd city-break destination, Jet2 mostly serves the same destinations that TUI do. I doubt TUI will roll over and let Jet2 in at CWL without a fight which means if Jet2 were to arrive there would be a huge increase in flights on routes that are already served. I'm pretty sure that would not be sustainable, and more importantly would it make money for Jet2? Instead of placing aircraft into the SouthWest, their other option would be to instead place aircraft into one of their larger bases that are already doing well.

To give you an example, I've made a list below of the routes Jet2 serves from it's smallest base BFS (4x B738) in the peak summer. I've then noted which routes are already served from CWL and which are not.

These are the routes Jet2 serve from BFS that are already served from CWL:
MLA - served by RYR 2x weekly
BOJ - served by TUI 2x weekly
DBV - served by TUI 1x weekly
LCA - served by TUI 1x weekly
PFO - served by TUI 2x weekly
NAP - served by TUI 1x weekly
FAO - served by RYR 2x weekly, TUI 1x weekly
AYT - served by TUI 2x weekly
DLM - served by TUI 3x weekly
ZTH - served by TUI 2x weekly
RHO - served by TUI 2x weekly
HER - served by TUI 1x weekly
LPA - served by TUI 1x weekly
ACE - served by TUI 2x weekly
TFS - served by TUI 3x weekly
MAH - served by TUI 2x weekly
IBZ - served by TUI 3x weekly
PMI - served by TUI 6x weekly, VLG 3x weekly
REU - served by TUI 1x weekly
AGP - served by VLG 4x weekly, RYR 3x weekly, TUI 2x weekly


These are the routes Jet2 serve from BFS that are not currently served from CWL:
ADB
FUE
LEI
GRO
I've read a copy of a Jet2 press release posted on another forum. It relates to BFS's Jet2 summer 2021 programme.

There will be nearly 575,000 seats on sale for summer 2021 with over 50 departures every week during peak periods. I understand that Jet2 doesn't use its aircraft to the degree that easyJet and Ryanair use theirs but for a 4 x B738 base that seems a modest figure for a low-cost airline. With around 50 departures per week it appears that no aircraft operates more than two return trips each day.

Contrast that with easyJet's 17 aircraft BRS base last summer when there were over 50 departures per day. A small number of those flights were operated by aircraft from other bases but if easyJet had a 4-aircraft base at BRS they'd be operating around 80 departures a week, not the 50 of Jet2 at BFS.

As an airline/holiday company it does show that Jet2's aircraft utilisation is also much more akin to that of TUI than to the likes of easyJet and Ryanair, and seems to confirm Severn's contention that TUI would be the main competitor to Jet2 at CWL, and also at BRS for that matter.
 

BlueKing

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Oct 25, 2019
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Question, I’ve heard something about Pegasus operating flights from BRS to DLM on a Thursday in the summer..... can anyone shed any light?
 

Severn

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Question, I’ve heard something about Pegasus operating flights from BRS to DLM on a Thursday in the summer..... can anyone shed any light?
With the loss of TCX and their large number of flights to Turkey, it wouldn't be surprising to hear that Pegasus or any other company are looking to step in to fill the gaps. Flights by Pegasus haven't been mentioned on this forum as far as I'm aware, however we do know of easyJet (using A321neos), TUI (using B738s and the B787) and Freebird (using A320s) will operating flights to DLM next summer. The weekly departures to DLM look like this during the peak-summer:

Monday
easyJet - A321

Tuesday
No fights

Wednesday
easyJet - A321
TUI - B738

Thursday
easyJet - A321
Freebird - A320 (not related to TUI. This will purely be a standalone charter flight - it can be found when looking at onthebeach.com)

Friday
TUI - B738

Saturday
easyJet - A321
TUI - B787

Sunday
TUI - B738


Regarding new routes from Pegasus, they have recently announced scheduled flights to STN:
Ankara – London Stansted eff 29MAR20 3 weekly A320
Antalya – London Stansted eff 08JUN20 2 weekly A320
Dalaman – London Stansted eff 04MAY20 1 weekly A320, replacing London Gatwick service
 
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TheLocalYokel

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Expect new EZY route announcement tomorrow for S20!!
No speculation yet then. I'd like to think purely from a selfish point of view that it will be a summer Salzburg. BRS has only ever had a ski season low-cost airline SZG route. easyJet has operated SZG in winter for many years and Ryanair also tried it in one winter season (07/08).
 

Marko1

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Well I was waiting to see if anyone came up with any suggestions. I’m going for Munich or enfidhna. Actually I’m hoping for more than one
 

BRSregular

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Likely to be a package holiday destination I think, although if it’s going on sale for S20, they’re leaving it a bit late... which makes me think it might be a city route instead. Munich, Salzburg or the reintroduction of Marrakesh with decent frequencies?
 
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