Route Development & Rumours

[andrewgreen]

Veerrry interesting!

Difference is of course that easyjet run multiple flights per day to most European cities from Gatwick, pretty much same frequency if not better than most legacy carriers, whereas at Bristol it's more like 2-3 flights per week (with a few exceptions).

And also Norweigan dont operate any flights from Bristol ... yet !
But it is interesting and if it works well at Gatwick could well be one to look at for Bristol in the future especially as Norweigan UK seem to be about to get there AOC approved by the US

 

[andrewgreen]

Regarding the surface access to the airport obviously a direct motorway link would be the best but its probably not going to happen any time soon. More locally i do wonder if making more use of the 'service' road entrance off downside road would help with congestion on the main A38 or even making the whole thing one way as in using the A38 for the entrance which could then be two lanes and out via the downside road entrance .

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Regarding the surface access to the airport obviously a direct motorway link would be the best but its probably not going to happen any time soon. More locally i do wonder if making more use of the 'service' road entrance off downside road would help with congestion on the main A38 or even making the whole thing one way as in using the A38 for the entrance which could then be two lanes and out via the downside road entrance .

The £600,000 joint study by the airport and local authority (funded mainly by the local authority) into airport surface access will, or darn well should, be looking at this sort of thing as well as more strategic issues such as a rail or tram link. Rail is about as unlikely as a motorway link in my view but a tram might be feasible.

 

[Jerry]

And also Norweigan dont operate any flights from Bristol ... yet !
But it is interesting and if it works well at Gatwick could well be one to look at for Bristol in the future especially as Norweigan UK seem to be about to get there AOC approved by the US

I forgot to add as well WestJet are included as well.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Veerrry interesting!

Difference is of course that easyjet run multiple flights per day to most European cities from Gatwick, pretty much same frequency if not better than most legacy carriers, whereas at Bristol it's more like 2-3 flights per week (with a few exceptions).

I suppose though that in the main the cities to which easyJet operates multi-daily from Gatwick already have their own direct transatlantic services.

That being so, with BRS's fewer easyJet flights generally one wonders whether many punters in, say Prague or Venice, would look at a BRS connection via easyJet if Norwegian ever did operate out of BRS.

I suspect that if Norwegian did set up at BRS, and given Brexit uncertainty that's unlikely to be soon, their main interest would be point to point passengers from BRS to/from North America.

 

[Marko1]

Think we could do with some good news

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Think we could do with some good news

I know what you mean but taking a broader view BRS has had lots of good news in the past few years that there is bound to come a time when things slow down for a while.

In some ways that's not a bad thing as the airport should take advantage to ensure that its systems are as efficient as possible, so that when the next surge arrives they are in a better position to take advantage.

The airport's web site news pages show the current slumber. The last news item is dated 17 August and deals with the airport fire brigade denoting redundant fire hose to a local zoo, and the one before that is dated 14 July and announces easyJet's self-service bag drop (which incidentally I used recently and found extremely uncomplicated and quick).

 

[Jerry]

Think we could do with some good news

In a way BRSs good news has been coming in passenger numbers rather than routes and airlines.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

In a way BRSs good news has been coming in passenger numbers rather than routes and airlines.

Over the past two or three years there have been numerous new routes.

This year the following are new routes:

Figari (bmir); Almeria (TCX); Zadar (Ryanair); Florence (BACF); Sanford and Cancun (TUI) plus a number of carriers doubling up on existing routes. If I've missed any please chip in.

From the coming winter Ryanair will begin Cologne-Bonn and easyJet will begin Stockholm Arlanda and Athens. Next summer TCX will begin Preveza and TUI will begin Punta Cana.

I would expect more new routes to be announced in time for next summer.

What is lacking is news of a significant new carrier. It might be that the apparent lack of overnight parking space is a problem, hence the reports of the demolition of the old terminal to provide more stands, although that won't be done in time for next year, albeit one extra stand is reportedly planned for next summer.

 

[Jerry]

What is lacking is news of a significant new carrier.

The only carriers who are the most likely to base at BRS would be Monarch but they are going through the transition to a leisure carrier and changing aircraft type so might not be in expansion mode yet though with new aircraft on the way in 2018 they may well be looking at BRS and other airports in the future.
The other is Jet2 who have been rumoured for BRS but if there was going to be a base for summer 18 you'd have thought it would've been announced by now, it may be that with their expansion at STN and BHX they may have there hands full and may look at BRS and other bases for 2019.
Another option may be to try and attract an airline that is non based and flies in when the other aircraft are away but I honestly can't think of any except Norwegian.

 

[Marko1]

I'm starting to doubt that jet 2 will base any time soon . Firstly there seems to be no room at the inn plus there was absolutely no mention at the agm of any planned expansion other than at existing bases. Secondly if we look at foreign based alternatives what is available - vueling very unlikely , blue air - well we know what happened there, wizz - stagnant perhaps even slightly retreating. So growth may have to rely on maybe an extra easyJet aircraft again plus an increase in charter services.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

It's a dichotomy. easyJet has been the airline that has underpinned the BRS growth and now handles just over half the airport's passenger numbers.

At the same time its very presence and huge spread of routes might well be putting off other airlines that might have otherwise turned up. However, they might not have produced the same route network overall as easyJet with a consequent lessening of airport passenger numbers and airport profit.

Another dimension is that in any business it's unwise to rely too heavily on one customer.

Like you Marko, I am now less confident that Jet2 will now turn up next summer. I read in the Dried Plum that a poster with apparent links to Jet2 recently said no more bases are planned at the moment, but unless he/she is intimately involved with base development he/she is unlikely to know, and if he/she is involved he/she would be very unlikely to comment publicly one way or the other.

I think I said a few weeks ago that Jet2 suddenly arriving with four aircraft (which was the number strongly rumoured) would upset the current balance to a degree that in the end might be counter-productive. I think that two aircraft would be a better start with a subsequent gradual build-up as the airport could absorb that far more easily without adversely affecting existing airlines too much. However, I am led to believe that Jet2 is no longer in the game of opening such small bases.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

I think short haul growth will come from EZY mainly, with more from TOM and TCX. FR is a strange one. I can't see why they aren't expanding at BRS given the rate of expansion of EZY and other carriers. Personally I think they are missing a trick, but they obviously know more than I do!
New foreign carriers don't always seem to do that great at BRS. LH and AF didn't last, SK couldn't even make a summer seasonal route work, Helvetic, now possibly WOW not returning (s18 TBC) CO had it's own reasons but BRS market was apparently part to do with it, Wizz seems to have stagnated, although I hear whilst the route frequency for S18 will be the same, some of it's routes will be operated by the A321. Some of those are big players in the EU market, so unless there's an untapped niche somewhere, I don't see any major surprises looming.
I can't see EZY going anywhere anytime soon, so maybe a large proportion of the eggs in the Orange basket isn't such a bad thing.
If BA did well this summer I can see more comings from them, albeit limited to suit the LCY ops.

Monarch or Jet2? Would be a great fit, but are they really needed?

 

[andrewgreen]

I know what you mean but taking a broader view BRS has had lots of good news in the past few years that there is bound to come a time when things slow down for a while.

In some ways that's not a bad thing as the airport should take advantage to ensure that its systems are as efficient as possible, so that when the next surge arrives they are in a better position to take advantage.

The airport's web site news pages show the current slumber. The last news item is dated 17 August and deals with the airport fire brigade denoting redundant fire hose to a local zoo, and the one before that is dated 14 July and announces easyJet's self-service bag drop (which incidentally I used recently and found extremely uncomplicated and quick).

Yes i think we have almost become used to good news and at times the infrastructure at Bristol is struggling to cope. A period of consolidation is needed for things to catch up , it would be ashame if all the good work was undone by huge amounts of bad reviews , even at the busy periods i still find it a much better place to travel through than any of the bigger airports. I have just had to 'endure' Heathrow again as costs/timings just dont work from Bristol ,im convinced there is much more than can be done in future from Bristol to stop passengers from the South West leaking to Heathrow.The demand is definately there it just needs someone to stick there neck out and prove it ! Maybe the new CEO ?

 

[Severn]

In Summer 18, TCX and TOM alone will be operating 20 flights per week more than in Summer 17.
TCX will be operating new routes to BOJ, PFO, HRG, KGS, PVK & GRO and adding extra flights to HER, ZTH, AYT & DLM - (DLM and AYT will both be 4x weekly!!)
TOM will be operating new routes to HRG, JSI & PUJ and adding extra flights to BOJ, DBV, CFU and VRN (operated by Neos Airlines).
Welcoming new operators and routes at BRS is something we've come to expect at BRS, it is also great to see such expansion from current based companies. We have also yet to see what the final schedules for EZY and RYR next year might look like!

 

[Marko1]

Can a b737 max or a321neo comfortably do transatlantic from brs ? Now with various airlines using them is that an option ?

 

[andrewgreen]

Can a b737 max or a321neo comfortably do transatlantic from brs ? Now with various airlines using them is that an option ?

Ive been thinking the same thing , i cant imagine they wont but im no expert and im sure someone out there will know ? It never seems to be straight forward and relies on so many factors . The same doubts were expressed about the Thompson B787 to Florida and Mexico but as we now know it appears to be no problem .

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I think short haul growth will come from EZY mainly, with more from TOM and TCX. FR is a strange one. I can't see why they aren't expanding at BRS given the rate of expansion of EZY and other carriers. Personally I think they are missing a trick, but they obviously know more than I do!
New foreign carriers don't always seem to do that great at BRS. LH and AF didn't last, SK couldn't even make a summer seasonal route work, Helvetic, now possibly WOW not returning (s18 TBC) CO had it's own reasons but BRS market was apparently part to do with it, Wizz seems to have stagnated, although I hear whilst the route frequency for S18 will be the same, some of it's routes will be operated by the A321. Some of those are big players in the EU market, so unless there's an untapped niche somewhere, I don't see any major surprises looming.
I can't see EZY going anywhere anytime soon, so maybe a large proportion of the eggs in the Orange basket isn't such a bad thing.
If BA did well this summer I can see more comings from them, albeit limited to suit the LCY ops.

Monarch or Jet2? Would be a great fit, but are they really needed?

I think that you are right about most of the growth continuing to be provided by easyJet, TUI and Thomas Cook, although Ryanair have been increasing their offering in winter substantially both last winter and the forthcoming one. Summer though seems to remain flat for the most part with Ryanair. It's possible, perhaps probable, that easyJet will base another aircraft at the airport next summer as they have been doing in recent years, presumably part of the five-year agreement with the airport which must be coming to an end soon.

The reasons for some of the overseas carriers not sticking seem to be varied and not always self-evident.

Continental lasted five and a half years from May 2005 until November 2010 and came to BRS at the time they had no access to LHR. Within two or three years they did gain access and promptly switched their LGW-EWR route to LHR. From then on I always felt that BRS was on borrowed time and said so more than once on aviation message boards long before the axe fell. Why operate 4 x daily from the mammoth LHR with a fifth daily at a small airport 100 miles down the road? It would make more sense to operate all 5 from LHR, which is what they did. They must have had slots or were able to get them for the increased LHR frequency.

Lufthansa to FRA was operated by Eurowings Bae 146-300 aircraft 3 times daily (21 x weekly) from the beginning of the summer 2008 season. Loads generally averaged around 60% on the 100-seat aircraft but 3 x daily was really too many seats. Within the first six months LH announced that BRS-originating passengers had used every one of LH's long haul routes out of FRA. Winter 08/09 saw a reduction in frequency which was a positive move bringing seats into line with the market. After a year LH suddenly pulled the plug - I know from speaking to a senior person at BRS closely involved with route development that the move came out of the blue (an early morning phone call from the LH UK chief) as LH had only recently told them that they were pleased with progress - 100,000 passengers in the year of operation.

This was at the height of the recession which was the culprit. LH intimated the route would be back and it was thought they were getting ready to use bmi regional which they then owned. bmir was sold and the new owners operated to FRA which LH soon joined as a code share (as they did with MUC) which remains the current situation. 3 x daily on a 50-seater is a good schedule although bmir's owners have stated publicly that BRS-FRA is a route they would use larger aircraft on when they get them.

Helvetic

Initially operated ZRH-CWL with F100s. Loads were poor so BRS was later included as a double drop with CWL. Eventually CWL was dropped and the route operated between ZRH and BRS. Loads improved to the point of a monthly 65% load factor but that wasn't enough and Helvetic eventually pulled out. A senior person at BRS told me they tried to get Helvetic to increase from 3 x weekly to 6 x weekly as this sort of schedule would enable them to link into the Swiss network. BRS-ZRH seems a glaring omission from the BRS route network.

Air France

In the 1990s Brit Air operated F28s for Air France on BRS-CDG. After they pulled out Air France returned in the early years of this century in the guise of Air France Regional with E145s at 3 x daily against BACx (later BACon) also 3 x daily with similar aircraft. That operated for a few years then when Flybe took over BACon in 2007 and axed all the BRS BACon routes it looked as though BRS would have no CDG route.

easyJet stepped in then a year or two later Airlinair came along as 'Air France' with an 18 x weekly ATR 42 (later upgraded to 72) service. Four years ago they began to reduce the service, replacing it with a daily Air Hop! E190 which was often replaced by a CityJet ARJ, before pulling out in 2014, by which time the KLM AMS route was being increased to 4 x daily with E190s, indicating that the combined AF/KLM Group was going to concentrate on AMS as their gateway from BRS.

SAS

First came with a limited 8-week season in summer 2007 to Stockholm Arlanda at 2 x weekly with Boeing 737-600 aircraft from mid-June that year. This was repeated in summer 2008 with the addition of a 3 x weekly Oslo service for the entire summer. Prior to summer 2009 SAS went into near financial meltdown and axed 40% of its route network, including those to BRS.

In summer 2014 SAS returned on the Stockholm route for an identical 8-week season, again with Boeing 737-600 aircraft. It was heavily advertised as a tourist route at both ends. The route again operated in similar fashion in summer 15 but failed to return in summer 16. Quite what SAS expected from it I don't know. Load factors were around the 90% mark and fares certainly weren't cheap. It will be fascinating to see how easyJet copes on Stockholm when it begins later this year.

WOW

Never seemed fully committed to BRS and the BRS route seemed to be the one to suffer when weather or aircraft problems came along. Last year there were a number of occasion where delays amounted to around 12 hours causing passengers to miss their transatlantic connections. WOW then took a complete break after the winter season this year until June. It's little wonder that some passengers became wary of booking with them.

 

[Jerry]

Considering Eurowings new Stuttgart route for NQY what chance do people think there is of Eurowings launching a German route to BRS?

 

[Sierra3]

Think the NQY service has come about as a result of a mega successful German TV series, rather like Game of Thrones, which has boosted German public interest in Cornwall.

Remember sitting in the bar at the Castle Hotel in Taunton in about 2008 waiting for the AA (the car wouldn't start) listening to 2 Americans discussing 'why the hell' they didn't catch the CO flight to BRS, having just got off the train from Reading - they looked knackered!