Route Development & Rumours

[TheLocalYokel]

A quick reality check.
So what do you think the likes of 'Conns' have been asked to do? Go out and find low yield flights that might be in direct competition with current business partners that will quickly eat into the remaining passenger quota before the airport is ready to expand, or concentrate on good quality, high yield growth that will allow the airport to develop slowly whilst the planning process runs its course?

No, not saying that at all. In a number of posts in recent months I and others have reported CEO Robert Sinclair's remarks in a magazine article in April that the airport will only add to existing airlines when it makes sense and won't overlay capacity on top of existing capacity merely for the sake of it. I can't remember any F4A member disagreeing with this sensible policy. When the strong rumours about a four-aircraft Jet2 base opening in summer 2018 were doing the rounds some of us were concerned that this would be too much too soon and would be likely to drive down yields.

A couple of weeks ago I posted this suggestion in another BRS thread on F4A.

I think that 2017 will finish around 8.2 million.

If there is nothing further added or lost for next year I reckon that 2018 will be in the region of 8.5/8.6 million. I doubt that next year will see the outstanding growth of recent years enjoyed by many airports and that includes BRS.

2019 and 2020 are obviously dependent upon not only how BRS progresses but also the wider situation with Brexit perhaps the major conundrum. If Brexit doesn't impact too negatively I'd be looking for 9 million, perhaps a bit more, in 2019 and edging up towards the current 10 mppa cap by the end of 2020.

These figures are very similar to yours, Kingshat. I and others have also commented on the current 10 mppa planning limit with suggestions that informal talks with the council might already have taken place and that there might well be the sort of opposition that accompanied the major expansion applications, with possible threats of legal action, if (when really) a formal application to raise the current limit is submitted.

The current discussion is not whether BRS should strive forward wildly but how, given the current situation with Monarch replacement around larger airports than BRS, the expected more moderate growth (compared with recent years) can be maintained in the next few years.

I'm certainly realistic with the view that major additions in the form of new airlines are very unlikely in the current climate anyway. BRS is losing WOW and Wizz is axing/has axed three of its four routes.

 

[Marko1]

I certainly agree with those comments ly. To be honest I think we all expect similar figures over the next few years . I just personally think we need an extra dimension for choice at the airport and if that is jet2 then so be it. I cannot imagine the airport turning them away if they were approached by jet 2 as the possible consequence would be setting up at cwl instead with all the negative repercussions . We already lost Qatar on tenuous circumstances it would be a massive disappointment to lose anyone else simply because the airports 10 mill limit

 

[Jerry]

I cannot imagine the airport turning them away if they were approached by jet 2 as the possible consequence would be setting up at cwl instead with all the negative repercussions

I honestly couldn't see Jet2 setting up at CWL having much impact on BRS. They might draw off south gloucestershire and Bristol area but would they attract from the rest of BRS's catchment? If they did set up at CWL then i can't see it being more than 3 aircraft.
In the long run Jet2 might actually be better off looking at the way TOM operates in the South West and South Wales area and base say 3 aircraft at BRS say 2 738s and a 757, 2 aircraft at CWL 1 738 and a 733 and 1 aircraft at EXT 1 733. It would give them then good coverage of the whole South West area as well as South and West Wales, all 3 airports would benefit from them in the area and instead of expanding by adding extra aircraft expand by adding bigger aircraft ie upgrade BRS to all 757 and CWL and EXT to all 738s.
I personally think though that Jet2 won't be coming to this area for a while especially considering how well their BHX and STN bases have done plus with the expansion rumoured for STN you have to wonder where they will get the aircraft from.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

My concern, and Kingshat alluded to it, is that too much extra competition all at once is likely to drive down yields of existing carriers who might then themselves downsize at BRS leaving the airport no better off, except that it would have an additional airline.

Even if the 10 mppa cap is lifted, and my own view is that it will be albeit there might be the usual fight with objectors, there is still always a danger that too much extra capacity in one go might be counter-productive. At BHX when Jet2 came along Norwegian and Vueling backed off to a degree. Whether that was because of Jet2 we don't know.

A four-aircraft base (which was what was rumoured) at an airport of BRS's size seems a lot of additional seats to absorb in one go. Were Jet2 coming - I said earlier I think the possibility has receded at least in the short term - I would have thought a two-aircraft base would have a been a better fit to begin with, leaving the airline to grow as demand grew. I've been told though by someone with Jet2 connections that Jet2 would be unlikely to open a new base with just two aircraft.

I do have a lot of faith in the BRS routes team and its leadership to do the right thing and they of course are in a far better position than I am to know what the right thing is.

 

[Marko1]

Anyone heard any rumours of new routes coming our way. Looks like growth at the moment is coming largely from extra frequencies from easyJet and tui. Anything from Ryanair and i guess jet2 is on the back burner now ?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Anyone heard any rumours of new routes coming our way. Looks like growth at the moment is coming largely from extra frequencies from easyJet and tui. Anything from Ryanair and i guess jet2 is on the back burner now ?

I think most of the growth will be through existing carriers in the near term. Looking at the published programme for next year, 2018 is likely to see between 8.5 and 8.8 million passengers which is within touching distance of its current 10 mppa planning consent limit, having regard to growth in the previous 2-3 years.

The procedure to raise that limit would be lengthy and replete with serious objectors and possible attempts at legal challenges, although it would be surprising if the application did not ultimately succeed. The airport is a major employer in North Somerset which is one of the smallest unitary authorities in the country.

The previous CEO said publicly that the airport's preference is to 'work very hard with our existing customers and only add airlines when it makes sense'. He mentioned easyJet, Ryanair, TUI, Thomas Cook and KLM in this regard. He went on to say that the airport doesn't want to create an environment where existing airlines don't have sustainable business models (at BRS). The airport takes a longer term view and only adds routes when there is a 'demonstrable need and demand' which he says works much better at BRS than 'overlaying additional capacity on top of existing capacity'.

Given that 2019 is likely to see over 9 mppa, a 4-aircraft Jet2 base would almost certainly take them close or even up to the 10 mppa limit in that year. Most of Jet2's routes are now leisure-related and they would undoubtedly impact on some of the existing airlines that might be squeezed, particularly if they wanted to expand again themselves.

From all that I'd say a Jet2 base is now unlikely, at least in the next 2-3 years. That's not to say there won't be any new airlines popping up; I just can't see the sort of network that a 4-aircraft Jet2 base would bring.

As for new routes, I'm very optimistic that easyJet will add something for next summer.

 

[Marko1]

Looking at some of the increases announced today by jet 2 we might have missed a trick or two. After all jet 2 holidays is now the second largest tour operator in the U.K.

 

[Marko1]

IF Ryanair chooses not to add Bergerac this summer , is there another airline to take it up. It's been flown for years now , like Corsica it be a shame to lose .

 

[Jerry]

Only one would Easyjet I'd have thought. BMI don't seem to be looking at France.

 

[Severn]

I posted this on "the other forum", so I thought I'd post it here too.
In comparison to whats normally posted on here it's a dumbed down version for the other forum, but it's nice to see a list of new routes from BRS since this Winter plus new operators on existing routes:

New scheduled routes from BRS for Winter 17 onwards

Cologne - 4x weekly, RYR - Started November 17
Stockholm - 2x weekly, EZY - Started November 17
Athens - 2x weekly, EZY - Started November 17
---------------------------------------------------------------
Gothenburg - 2x weekly, BMR - Started January 18
---
Shannon - 2x weekly, RYR - Starts May 18
Genoa - 2x weekly, EZY - Starts June 18
Seville - 2x weekly, EZY - Starts June 18
---
Seville - 2x weekly, RYR - Starts November 18


New regular charter flights from BRS for Winter 17 onwards

Hurghada - 1x weekly, TUI - Starts March 18 (Will also be new route for TCX)
Punta Cana - 1x weekly, TUI - Starts April 18 (New Route for BRS)
---
Burgas - 1x weekly, TCX - Starts May 18 (Currently served by BH Air and TUI)
Enfidha - 1x weekly, TUI - Starts May 18 (New route this year)
Girona - 1x weekly, TCX - Starts May 18 (Currently served by Ryanair and TUI)
Hurghada - 1x weekly, TCX - Starts May 18 (Will also be new route for TUI)
Kos - 1x weekly, TCX - Starts May 18 (Currently served by TUI)
Paphos - 1x weekly, TCX - Starts May 18 (Currently served by easyJet and TUI)
Preveza - 1x weekly, TCX - Starts May 18 (New Route for BRS)
Skiathos - 1x weekly, TUI - Starts May 18 (Currently served by TCX)
Verona - 1x weekly, TUI (operated by NEOS) - Starts May 18 (New route this year)
---
Marrakesh - 1x weekly, TUI - Starts November 18 (New route this year)
Keflavik - 2x weekly, TUI - Starts November 18 (Currently served by EZY)

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thanks for that, Severn.

A route I am very surprised not to have materialised is a summer Salzburg. For many years in the 80s, 90s and early years of this century there were 2, sometimes 3, summer charter flights to Salzburg each week on behalf of tour operators. The main ones were Thomson and Crystal Lakes & Mountains (both TUI). In those years my wife and I regularly used the service for Austrian holidays and the carriers were varied: Monarch B757 on several occasions; AirWorld A320; Aero Lloyd A321; British European Bae146-300 (Jersey European became British European for a short time before settling on Flybe).

Thomson pulled its Lakes & Mountains route from BRS via Salzburg about ten years ago and the only summer Austrian charter flight now is the one on behalf of Inghams to Innsbruck operated for the past two summers by CityJet ARJ85s and before that by Austrian F70s.

There are flights to Salzburg in the winter ski season- TUI and easyjet 3 x weekly between them- and Innbruck is also well covered in winter with Austrian and easyJet at 4 x weekly between them.

Apart from the summer charter to Innsbruck each week the only other Austrian route during that season is easyJet's 2 x weekly to Vienna that also operates through the winter.

Summer Salzburg certainly seems an omission either by a charter carrier or by easyJet with perhaps tour companies taking some seats as they do on some other easyJet routes at BRS.

 

[Marko1]

Yes it seems strange that Salzburg does not feature during the summer months. Did it not used to fly twice a week back in the day. I'm guessing like fashion demand for those kind of holidays has changed. Remember when there was a weekly Ljubljana service as well ?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Yes it seems strange that Salzburg does not feature during the summer months. Did it not used to fly twice a week back in the day. I'm guessing like fashion demand for those kind of holidays has changed. Remember when there was a weekly Ljubljana service as well ?

Yes it did, for Thomson holidays on Saturdays and Wednesdays for a number of years in summer. It then reduced to Saturdays only. The carriers varied as I described #151 above. For a few years there was also a Sunday summer charter service operated by European Aviation 737-200s. I don't know which tour operator(s) chartered this service.

In the early 80s Thomson operated to Munich from BRS for Austrian holidays. My wife and our two children, then in their early teens, used it once for a three-centre Austrian holiday. We flew out on a Sunday on a Britannia B 737-200 and returned on the Thursday week on a similar aircraft.

Until the Balkan Wars of the early 90s that led to the break-up of Yugoslavia most regional airports had summer sun flights there, invariably offered by Yugotours. They were popular because they were good value. The carriers were the Yugoslav airlines - Aviogenix, Inex Adria and JAT. The destinations were Ljubljana (that you mentioned), Split, Dubrovnik and Pula, all except Ljubljana now covered in summer by easyJet and also by TUI in the case of Dubrovnik and Pula.

 

[superking]

The Yugoslav airlines loved the B727 aircrafts. Used to go up to brs on a Saturday night and always the 3 Yugoslav aircraft lined up on the apron.Used to have a drink food sometimes,looking out over the apron was always busy with a few other airlines in as well.How times have changed as there does not seem to be the same amount of holiday maker flights.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The Yugoslav airlines loved the B727 aircrafts. Used to go up to brs on a Saturday night and always the 3 Yugoslav aircraft lined up on the apron.Used to have a drink food sometimes,looking out over the apron was always busy with a few other airlines in as well.How times have changed as there does not seem to be the same amount of holiday maker flights.

It's certainly nothing like the number of charter holiday flights there once was or the variety of airlines and aircraft types. There were also more night flights 20-30 years ago. These days the night quota is largely taken up by aircraft coming in until around 0200, mainly easyJet and especially in the summer season.

A few years ago I posted a list in the BRS Nostalgia thread, by no means definitive, of the many airlines that once used the airport on regular charter services. It can be accessed at this list, post #5.

https://www.forums4airports.com/threads/2378/

 

[Jerry]

Considering Primera Air have just launched Manchester and seem to be expanding into the UK holiday market and do seem to be using an away based aircraft for quite a few of the flights then i wonder if BRS could be on their radar and if they are non based flights overnight stand restrictions wouldn't be a problem.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Considering Primera Air have just launched Manchester and seem to be expanding into the UK holiday market and do seem to be using an away based aircraft for quite a few of the flights then i wonder if BRS could be on their radar and if they are non based flights overnight stand restrictions wouldn't be a problem.

I suppose they might consider almost anywhere if they want to spread their wings further and are not thinking of a base. Would they want to spread themselves too widely though until they get their feet firmly under the UK aviation table?

I'd have thought that BHX and STN, and now MAN, were enough to be going on with. Plenty of opportunity for expansion at those airports.

 

[rollo]

They are probably trying to pick up on lost capacity at MAN and BHX following Monarch's demise and substituting STN for LTN down south.

 

[Marko1]

Winter 18/19 is shaping up to be quite promising with easyJet yet to release its winter schedule. Tui will be increasing its Hurghada service to twice a week , Reykjavik twice a week , marrakech weekly and one offs to Barbados and Montego Bay plus Orlando and cancun start mid march 2019 . Ryanair is flying to knock , Valencia , Limoges and Seville and increasing to daily its Venice service and Alicante and Malaga also receive increases . Thomas cook launching a weekly Hurghada and enfidha is starting to appear for march and April 2019. Finally today neilson is relaunching its Lleida ski flight. It's looking good.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Winter 18/19 is shaping up to be quite promising with easyJet yet to release its winter schedule. Tui will be increasing its Hurghada service to twice a week , Reykjavik twice a week , marrakech weekly and one offs to Barbados and Montego Bay plus Orlando and cancun start mid march 2019 . Ryanair is flying to knock , Valencia , Limoges and Seville and increasing to daily its Venice service and Alicante and Malaga also receive increases . Thomas cook launching a weekly Hurghada and enfidha is starting to appear for march and April 2019. Finally today neilson is relaunching its Lleida ski flight. It's looking good.

Was Hurghada going to 2 x weekly with TUI previously announced? The same for Orlando and Cancun starting next March. If so, I must have missed those somehow.

Punta Cana begins on 5 April this year. Is that one back for summer 19? I can't remember Punta Cana from BRS before. In the past the Dominican Republic has usally meant Puerto Plata from BRS.